In late November 2014, while attending a science exhibition on human settlement at the National Museum, Premier Li Keqiang posed a question to society and scientists regard- ing the Hu Huanyong Line, which the media s...In late November 2014, while attending a science exhibition on human settlement at the National Museum, Premier Li Keqiang posed a question to society and scientists regard- ing the Hu Huanyong Line, which the media subsequently dubbed ＂the Premier＇s question＂. This increased awareness and interest in the Hu Huanyong Line and launched a lively debate which provoked a variety of views. In an attempt to address the Premier＇s question, this paper firstly reviews the origins of the Hu Huanyong Line, named after the famous population ge- ographer who proposed it in 1935 as part of a wider debate on domestic overpopulation. Using demographic data from ChJna＇s first, fifth and sixth censuses, as well as the ArcGIS platform, we analyze the size, proportion and density of populations in the areas southeast and northwest of the Hu Huanyong Line, showing that urbanization and migration have not changed the pattern of population distribution observed by Hu Huanyong. Based on this, we suggest that the pattern of a dense population southeast of the line and sparse population northwest of the line will not fundamentally change for a relatively long time, nor will the situation of urban agglomerations being mainly found in the southeastern region. We also argue that climate and other physical geographic conditions determine that the Hu Huanyong Line shall remain in place. We believe that the question posed by Premier Li Keqiang is solvable, and that with positive policy guidance and rational spatial organization, the north- western region can achieve more modernization and better quality urbanization, while the same is true for the central region.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41671125,No.41601121Programme of Bingwei Excellent Young Scientists of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,No.2015RC202National Science and Technology Support Program,No.2012BAJ15B02
文摘In late November 2014, while attending a science exhibition on human settlement at the National Museum, Premier Li Keqiang posed a question to society and scientists regard- ing the Hu Huanyong Line, which the media subsequently dubbed ＂the Premier＇s question＂. This increased awareness and interest in the Hu Huanyong Line and launched a lively debate which provoked a variety of views. In an attempt to address the Premier＇s question, this paper firstly reviews the origins of the Hu Huanyong Line, named after the famous population ge- ographer who proposed it in 1935 as part of a wider debate on domestic overpopulation. Using demographic data from ChJna＇s first, fifth and sixth censuses, as well as the ArcGIS platform, we analyze the size, proportion and density of populations in the areas southeast and northwest of the Hu Huanyong Line, showing that urbanization and migration have not changed the pattern of population distribution observed by Hu Huanyong. Based on this, we suggest that the pattern of a dense population southeast of the line and sparse population northwest of the line will not fundamentally change for a relatively long time, nor will the situation of urban agglomerations being mainly found in the southeastern region. We also argue that climate and other physical geographic conditions determine that the Hu Huanyong Line shall remain in place. We believe that the question posed by Premier Li Keqiang is solvable, and that with positive policy guidance and rational spatial organization, the north- western region can achieve more modernization and better quality urbanization, while the same is true for the central region.
