Epidemiological profiles of human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus infections in Malian women:Risk factors and relevance of disparities

AIM:To document the epidemiologic patterns and risk factors of human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)and hepatitis C virus(HCV)infections in Mali in order to develop prevention means for both diseases.METHODS:Two prospective studies were conducted in Bamako in 2009 among 1000 pregnant women(i.e.,young women)who consulted six reference health centers,and in 2010,among 231 older women who attended general practice in two hospitals.Antibody tests and molecular analysis(performed only for HCV)were used to quantify the frequencies of both infections.The data were collected from patients recruited through a questionnaire.Transmission risk factors of both diseases were identified by univariate and multivariate analysis.RESULTS:HCV seroprevalence was 0.2% for young and 6.5% for older women.HIV prevalence was similar in both populations(4.1% vs 6.1%).In older women,the analysis of risk factors highlighted an association between HCV infection and episodes of hospitalization(P < 0.01).The study did not show an association between HIV infection and the variables such as hospitalization,transfusion,tattoo,dental care,and endoscopy.A significant decrease of HIV seroprevalence was detected in young women who used condoms for contraception more than for other purposes(P < 0.01).By contrast,HIV seroprevalence was significantly increased in young women using condoms mainly to prevent sexual infections rather than for contraception(P < 0.01).No HCV/HIV coinfection was detected in our study.CONCLUSION:Risk factors and epidemiologic data of HIV and HCV as well as the absence of co-infection strongly suggest epidemiological disparities between these diseases.

Risk factors for liver fibrosis among human immunodeficiency virus monoinfected patients using the FIB4 index in Morocco

AIM: To study the prevalence and risk factors of significant hepatic fibrosis in Moroccan human immunodeficiency virus(HIV) monoinfected patients.METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among HIV monoinfected patients(negative for hepatitis B surface antigen and hepatitis C antibody). Clinical and laboratory data were collected from the data base of the Infectious Diseases Unit in Ibn Rochd Hospital Center [age, gender, duration of HIV infection, CD4 T lymphocyte count, HIV viral load, glycemia and current or prior use of antiretroviral and antiretroviral therapy(ART) duration]. The primary outcome was a FIB4score > 1.45. Multivariable logistic regression identifiedindependent risk factors for FIB4 > 1.45.RESULTS: A FIB4 score > 1.45 was identified in 96among 619(15.5%). HIV monoinfected patients followed up between September 1990 and September2012. Multivariate analysis showed that only a viral load > 75(OR = 2.23, 95%CI: 1.36-3.67), CD4 > 200cells/mm3(OR = 0.39, 95%CI: 0.21-0.72) and age at FIB4 index calculation(OR = 1.10, 95%CI: 1.07-1.13)were independently associated with the occurrence of FIB4 index(> 1.45). Gender, duration of HIV infection,glycemia, use of antiretroviral therapy and ART duration were not associated with significant fibrosis by FIB4.CONCLUSION: FIB4 score > 1.45 was found in 15.5%of Moroccan HIV monoinfected patients. Age, HIV viremia > 75 copies/mL and CD4 count > 200 cells/mm3are associated with liver fibrosis. Further studies are needed to explore mechanisms for fibrosis in HIV monoinfected patients.

Risk Factors of Cervical Carcinoma and Countermeasures against Them in Mountainous Area of Wufeng County, China

Cases (n=44) with squamous cell cervical cancer (SCCA) and age-matched healthy controls (n=176) were analyzed. Significant difference due to human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, ages at the first marriage, ages at the first sexual intercourse, ages at the first birth given to baby, number of gravidities, number of deliveries, Body Mass Index (BMI), education level of women and their husbands (p<0.05) was observed. According to multivariate logistic regression analysis, four factors have entered the model (p<0.05), including HPV infection [OR (odds ratio)=26.13, 95%CI (confidence interval)=9.40?72.60], education level of women (OR=0.41, 95%CI=0.21?0.79), education level of spouses (OR=0.45, 95%CI=0.22?0.94), BMI (OR=0.73, 95%CI=0.57?0.93). Moreover, HPV infection is relative to education level of women (r=?0.14), and their spouses (r=?0.21), age at the first marriage (r=?0.20), age at the first birth given to baby (r=?0.20) and BMI (r=?0.15).

Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment of Toxic Metals in Water, Sediment and Fish from Lower Usuma Dam, Abuja, Nigeria

The study assessed the levels of some toxic metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb and Zn) with their potential ecological and human health risks in water, African Catfish (Clarias gariepinus), Tilapia (Oreochromis spilurus niger) and sediment samples from the Lower Usuma dam FCT, Nigeria during two major seasons in a year (rainy and dry seasons). Toxic metal concentrations were determined using Atomic Absorption spectrophotometry (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) and Atomic Emission Spectrophotometry (for As and Hg), and the results obtained were compared with national and international standards. The ecological and human health risk indices of the toxic metals present in the samples from the Dam were evaluated and interpreted. Tilapia from the dam posed the highest but medium ecological and human health risk due to Pb concentration of up to 7.11 mg/kg;ecological risk index of 35.55 and hazard quotient of 50.78. Overall ecological and human health risks were low due to the low concentrations of other toxic metals determined. As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni and Zn concentrations were all below WHO limits in the LUD water;Ni and Pb were above limits in the African Catfish and Tilapia samples. The data obtained were analyzed using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and significant differences accepted at p ≤ 0.05. There was no statistical difference in the concentrations of toxic metals in water but there was significant difference between the concentrations of toxic metals in the fish and sediment samples. Correlation was found to exist between toxic metals in the water, fish and sediment analyzed from the dam. The ecological and human health risks of toxic metals in Lower Usuma dam require regular checks and monitoring hence, it was recommended by the researcher, that this and similar research work be carried out annually by NESREA and also, as research work by other students of Environmental and Analytical chemistry.

Risk factors in familial forms of celiac disease

Celiac disease has been reported in up to 2% of some European populations. A similar risk has been identified in the America and Australia where immigration of Eu-ropeans has occurred. Moreover, an increasing number of celiac disease patients are being identified in many Asian countries, including China and India. Finally, celiac disease has also been detected in Asian immigrants and their descendants to other countries, such as Canada. Within these so-called "general" celiac populations, however, there are specific high risk groups that have an even higher prevalence of celiac disease. Indeed, the single most important risk factor for celiac disease is having a first-degree relative with already-defined celiac disease, particularly a sibling. A rate up to 20% or more has been noted. Risk is even greater if a specific family has 2 siblings affected, particularly if a male carries the human leukocyte antigen-DQ2. Both structural changes in the small bowel architecture occur along with func-tional changes in permeability, even in asymptomatic first-degree relatives. Even if celiac disease is not evident, the risk of other autoimmune disorders seems significantly increased in first-degree relatives as well as intestinal lymphoma. Identification of celiac disease is important since recent long-term studies have shown that the mortality of celiac disease is increased, if it is unrecognized and untreated.

Incidence, risk factors, and outcome of BK polyomavirus infection after kidney transplantation

BACKGROUND Polyomavirus-associated nephropathy is a leading cause of kidney allograft failure. Therapeutic options are limited and prompt reduction of the net state of immunosuppression represents the mainstay of treatment. More recent application of aggressive screening and management protocols for BK-virus infection after renal transplantation has shown encouraging results. Nevertheless,long-term outcome for patients with BK-viremia and nephropathy remains obscure. Risk factors for BK-virus infection are also unclear.AIM To investigate incidence, risk factors, and outcome of BK-virus infection after kidney transplantation.METHODS This single-centre observational study with a median follow up of 57(31-80) mo comprises 629 consecutive adult patients who underwent kidney transplantation between 2007 and 2013. Data were prospectively recorded and annually reviewed until 2016. Recipients were periodically screened for BK-virus by plasmaquantitative polymerized chain reaction. Patients with BK viral load ≥ 1000 copies/mL were diagnosed BK-viremia and underwent histological assessment to rule out nephropathy. In case of BK-viremia, immunosuppression was minimized according to a prespecified protocol. The following outcomes were evaluated: patient survival, overall graft survival, graft failure considering death as a competing risk, 30-d-event-censored graft failure, response to treatment,rejection, renal function, urologic complications, opportunistic infections, newonset diabetes after transplantation, and malignancies. We used a multivariable model to analyse risk factors for BK-viremia and nephropathy.RESULTS BK-viremia was detected in 9.5% recipients. Initial viral load was high(≥ 10000 copies/mL) in 66.7% and low(< 10000 copies/mL) in 33.3% of these patients.Polyomavirus-associated nephropathy was diagnosed in 6.5% of the study population. Patients with high initial viral load were more likely to experience sustained viremia(95% vs 25%, P < 0.00001), nephropathy(92.5% vs 15%, P <0.00001), and polyomavirus-related graft loss(27.5% vs 0%, P = 0.0108) than recipients with low initial viral load. Comparison between recipients with or without BK-viremia showed that the proportion of patients with Afro-Caribbean ethnicity(33.3% vs 16.5%, P = 0.0024), panel-reactive antibody ≥ 50%(30% vs14.6%, P = 0.0047), human leukocyte antigen(HLA) mismatching > 4(26.7% vs13.4%, P = 0.0110), and rejection within thirty days of transplant(21.7% vs 9.5%; P= 0.0073) was higher in the viremic group. Five-year patient and overall graft survival rates for patients with or without BK-viremia were similar. However,viremic recipients showed higher 5-year crude cumulative(22.5% vs 12.2%, P =0.0270) and 30-d-event-censored(22.5% vs 7.1%, P = 0.001) incidences of graft failure than control. In the viremic group we also observed higher proportions of recipients with 5-year estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min than the group without viremia: 45% vs 27%(P = 0.0064). Urologic complications were comparable between the two groups. Response to treatment was complete in55%, partial in 26.7%, and absent in 18.3% patients. The nephropathy group showed higher 5-year crude cumulative and 30-d-event-censored incidences of graft failure than control: 29.1% vs 12.1%(P = 0.008) and 29.1% vs 7.2%(P <0.001), respectively. Our multivariable model demonstrated that Afro-Caribbean ethnicity, panel-reactive antibody > 50%, HLA mismatching > 4, and rejection were independent risk factors for BK-virus viremia whereas cytomegalovirus prophylaxis was protective.CONCLUSION Current treatment of BK-virus infection offers sub-optimal results. Initial viremia is a valuable parameter to detect patients at increased risk of nephropathy. Panelreactive antibody > 50% and Afro-Caribbean ethnicity are independent predictors of BK-virus infection whereas cytomegalovirus prophylaxis has a protective effect.

早期宫颈癌术后HPV持续感染的危险因素分析

目的分析早期宫颈癌根治术后高危型人乳头瘤病毒(HR-HPV)持续感染的相关危险因素。方法选取2021年1月至2023年11月之间,在昆明市妇幼保健院行开腹或腹腔镜下宫颈癌根治术的159例早期宫颈癌患者,根据术后1a返院复查HR-HPV持续感染情况分为2组:HR-HPV阳性组(n=41)和HR-HPV转阴组(n=118)。对2组患者的一般资料、阴道微生态情况、手术入路途径、术后病检结果等分析,研究早期宫颈癌患者术后HR-HPV持续阳性的相关危险因素。结果2组的单因素和多因素回归分析显示,绝经、手术期别晚、阴道微生态失调/亚失调是早期宫颈癌患者术后HR-HPV持续阳性的危险因素(P<0.05),而腹腔镜微创手术不是其危险因素。其中阴道微生态异常OR为12.574,绝经OR为3.510。结论绝经、阴道微生态失调为影响早期宫颈癌患者术后HR-HPV清除的重要危险因素。

自适应神经模糊推理系统优化的快速上肢评估方法

传统方法对工作相关肌肉骨骼疾病风险评估的输入变量变化敏感性较低,导致风险评估输出结果的精确性和可靠性不足。为更加准确地进行人因工程风险评估,提出了基于自适应神经模糊推理系统的快速上肢评估方法(RULA)。首先,基于卷积神经网络对视频中人体工作姿势的关键点进行检测及识别,并计算关节角度;其次,基于自适应神经模糊推理系统对快速上肢评估方法进行改进,搭建工作相关肌肉骨骼疾病风险评估架构以解决评估不同姿势时获得相同评分的问题;再次,随机选取不同工作姿势的关节角度数据对网络进行训练和检测,调整基于自适应神经模糊推理系统和快速上肢评估方法的工作相关肌肉骨骼疾病风险预测模型的最佳参数;最后,选取关节角度数据集里的前15个工作姿势进行相关性验证,将结果与原始快速上肢评估方法的结果进行比较,应用树枝修剪工具的操作过程进行案例分析以实现风险得分的实时动态评估。结果表明,优化后的快速上肢评估方法比原始方法更敏感,验证了利用自适应神经模糊推理系统能够有效改进快速上肢评估方法并实时预测风险得分。

Candida esophagitis:Risk factors in non-HIV population in Pakistan

AIM:Candida esophagitis is a frequent infection in immunocompromised patients. This study was designed to determine its characteristics in non- human immune deficiency virus (HIV) infected patients attending a teaching hospital.METHODS: Clinical records of all patients coded by international classification of diseases 9th revision with clinical modifications'(ICD-9-CM), with candida esophagitis diagnosed by esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) and histopathology over a period of 5 years were studied.RESULTS: Fifty-one patients (27 males, 24 females, range 21-77 years old and mean age 52.9 years) fulfilled the criteria (0.34% of the EGD). The common predisposing factors were carcinoma (OR 3.87, CI 1.00-14.99) and diabetes mellitus (OR 4.39, CI 1.34-14.42). The frequent clinical symptoms were retrosternal discomfort, dysphagia and epigastric abdominal pain with endoscopic appearance of scattered mucosal plaques. Another endoscopic lesion was associated with candida esophagitis in 15% patients.CONCLUSION: Carcinomas, diabetes mellitus, corticosteroid and antibiotic therapy are major risk factors for candida esophagitis in Pakistan. It is an easily managed complication that responds to treatment with nystatin.

基于HFACS模型的军事演训活动风险评估指标体系构建

基于人因分析与分类系统(HFACS)分析军事演训活动的全面风险,考虑联合军事演训和新域新质作战力量的特点,并突出演训活动的战斗力标准。在改进HFACS模型分析框架的基础上,逐层次细化拆解,建立初步的风险评估指标库,并结合专家知识运用风险矩阵对指标库进行优化。构建人为因素视角下涵盖战斗力的风险、组织管理的风险、不安全行为的前提条件的风险和不安全行为的风险等4个方面以及包含战斗精神、新型主战武器、智能装备等在内的15项极高风险指标、20项高风险指标和8项中风险指标的风险评估指标体系。

基于WBS-RBS耦合矩阵法的水利工程洞室施工作业人因风险评估

为解决事故树分析法在复杂系统中识别风险时存在编制困难且容易遗漏风险的问题,本文提出了基于工作-风险分解(WBS-RBS)耦合矩阵法的水利工程洞室施工作业人因风险评估方法.首先,将水利工程洞室作业流程与风险进行细化分解,形成WBS-RBS耦合矩阵,识别出整个施工过程中的风险;其次,采用区间层次分析法计算风险因素权重,在此基础上通过专家调查法得到风险发生概率和损失后果的量化值,并用风险因素权重进行加权,得到修正的风险值;然后,将修正的风险值填入WBS-RBS耦合矩阵,得到各项风险因素和工作单元的风险值及占比情况.最后,以水利水电工程施工行业发生的多起洞室施工伤亡事故为例,验证了方法的科学性与有效性.

安徽省人类精子库志愿者精液质量与生活方式的关联研究

目的探究安徽省人类精子库捐精志愿者的生活方式与精液质量关联性。方法收集2021年1月-2023年12月在安徽省人类精子库捐精的1222名志愿者的人口学特征及生活方式,分析其与精液质量的相关性。结果单因素卡方分析表明非学生、频繁自慰者、禁欲时长、低运动频率、经常熬夜、吸烟、饮酒和短睡眠时长与精液参数异常有显著关联(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析进一步指出,非学生身份、禁欲时长、缺乏充足睡眠与精液量异常相关;禁欲时长、运动频率、熬夜、吸烟和睡眠时长与精液浓度和精子活力异常显著相关(P<0.05)。结论精液质量与志愿者的生活方式(禁欲时间、熬夜、睡眠时间、吸烟、饮酒及运动频率)密切相关。

铁路调度员疲劳状态检测软件研究与设计

针对目前铁路调度员疲劳检测技术手段缺乏、检测特征单一、准确率低等问题,通过分析现场调度员疲劳检测需求,提出一种基于多特征融合的铁路调度员疲劳状态检测方法。通过融合视频图像数据中的面部及行为特征,如眨眼、打哈欠、疲劳姿态等指标,实现对调度员疲劳状态的实时检测;设计疲劳检测算法流程和软件架构,以及软件实现的方法与步骤。试验结果表明,该方法可行且有效,能够更加科学地评估人因安全风险,为控制调度员疲劳程度提供有力支持,可有效预防潜在的事故风险,对保障铁路安全运营具有积极意义。

基于人因工程的水电厂现场作业安全性分级量化分析模型研究

为提升水电厂现场作业安全,研究基于人因工程的水电厂现场作业安全性分级量化分析模型,降低水电厂现场作业的风险等级。以人因工程中的人、机和环境为切入,分析水电厂现场作业影响因素,并选取人、作业环境及作业现场三部分重要因素,建立水电厂现场作业安全性分级量化分析指标体系,经人因工程指标量化处理后,以此为基础,构建基于BP神经网络的水电厂现场作业安全性分级量化分析模型,以量化处理后水电厂现场作业安全性分级量化分析指标为模型输入,经模型训练、测试后,输出水电厂现场作业安全性分级量化分析等级。实验表明:该模型所得水电厂现场作业安全性分级量化分析结果与实际情况吻合度高,具备风险预警可行性;BP神经网络模型隐含层节点数为15时,模型的风险预警效果最佳;人员劳动负荷和强度越大,水电厂现场作业风险越高,合理设置人员工作强度与负荷,可提升水电厂现场作业安全性。

考虑人因风险的装配线平衡优化方法

“人本智造”已成为智能制造的新研究方向,日常生产活动需要更多考虑人类工效学(Ergonomics)。目前装配生产线平衡优化主要以提高装配效率为目的,缺乏对装配过程中人类工效学的关注。给出职业重复动作(OCRA)方法详细计算过程,并基于OCRA方法从动作频率、尴尬姿势、体力消耗及额外风险等方面对装配过程的人因风险进行评估,考虑不同作业元素优先关系约束、工作站节拍约束、任务关联性约束和操作者人因风险约束等约束条件,以最小化工作站数为优化目标,建立考虑人因风险的Type-Ι装配线平衡优化模型,进而采用改进的遗传算法作为求解算法,在初始化种群阶段基于优先级规则初始化种群,以提高收敛速度。通过对比算例分析结果,表明提出的模型合理且算法有效。

宫颈癌患者HPV感染因素分析及基因型分布

目的:分析宫颈癌患者人乳头瘤病毒(HPV)感染情况及基因型分布。方法:选择2021年1月-2023年12月本院收治的351例宫颈癌患者临床资料,分析HPV感染情况及基因型分布情况,并用logistic回归分析筛选宫颈癌患者HPV感染的独立危险因素。结果:351例宫颈癌患者中336例HPV感染,HPV感染率95.7%。HPV感染组与非HPV感染组性伴侣数、宫颈炎病史有差异(P<0.05)。logistic回归分析显示,性伴侣数≥2个、有宫颈炎病史是宫颈癌患者HPV感染的独立危险因素。336例中,单一感染239例(71.1%),混合感染97例(28.9%),其中二重感染71例(21.1%)、多重感染26例(7.7%)。不同病理类型、临床分期、分化程度、淋巴结转移宫颈癌患者HPV单一感染率有差异,不同临床分期、分化程度、淋巴结转移宫颈癌患者的HPV混合感染率有差异,不同病理类型、临床分期宫颈癌患者的HPV总感染率有差异(均P<0.05)。239例HPV单一感染的宫颈癌患者中感染高危HPV亚型233例(97.5%),感染率前3位依次是HPV16(45.8%)、HPV18(6.8%)、HPV58(4.8%)。结论:本次调查的宫颈癌患者HPV感染率高,性伴侣数≥2个、有宫颈炎病史会增加患者HPV感染风险,且以单一感染为主,基因型前3位分别为高危HPV亚型16型、18型、58型。

高速铁路列车调度员日常作业人因安全风险因素研究

高速铁路列车调度员承担着高速铁路行车指挥的重要工作,其表现出的不安全行为易引发严重的安全风险,为系统研究高速铁路列车调度员日常作业全流程中存在的人因安全风险因素,从规章制度角度出发,覆盖交接班作业、计划调整等7项基本作业流程以及教育培训、身心状况2项人员管理工作,提取18项列车调度员在日常工作中存在的人因安全风险因素,应用DEMATEL-ISM法分析各项风险因素间的影响关系及传递路径。通过对各项风险因素的分层研究,发现各因素间存在着复杂的影响关系,通过加强对列车调度员的培训提升其对规章制度的理解,并对列车调度员的抗压能力进行日常管理是避免在调度指挥工作中出现人因安全风险的关键,为管控列车调度员的不安全行为风险提供依据。

基于多参数优化地理探测器的山洪灾害驱动力分析及风险评价

【目的】大同市地处黄土高原东北边缘,区域内频繁的地下开采活动加剧了山洪灾害,严重威胁人民生命财产安全。为揭示该区域山洪灾害主要驱动力及对其进行风险性评价,【方法】基于大同市山洪灾害调查评价项目成果数据,采用多尺度网格进行采样,并组合参数最优地理探测器对连续型驱动因子进行最优离散化处理,探测分析山洪灾害驱动因子解释力和各驱动因子分级的平均危险度,最后基于所得解释力和危险度进行定量风险性评价。【结果】结果表明:降雨是诱发山洪灾害的首要因素(q=0.088 8),人类活动次之(q=0.061 8),地表环境最弱(q=0.022 7);在所选降雨指标中,6 h强降雨对大同市山洪灾害发生有平均最强解释力(q=0.141 2),可在进一步山洪灾害临界雨量研究中予以考虑;大同市山洪灾害危险水平较高,中高危险区面积占比超3/5,高危险区灾害点密度达0.038 5个/km^(2)。【结论】网格尺度和离散方式的优化选择均可有效提高地理探测器分析结果解释力;短历时(<6 h)强降雨若降雨不能持续,对山洪灾害的诱发力度大打折扣;整体来看大同市山洪灾害危险水平较高,且主要集中分布在易损性水平较低区域。研究结果可为定量进行山洪灾害风险性评价提供参考,为大同市山洪灾害防治区划提供一定的科学依据。

某三甲医院周边区域妇女宫颈HPV感染状况及相关风险因素

目的探讨某三甲医院周边区域妇女宫颈HPV感染状况及相关风险因素。方法选取常住在武警特色医学中心周边10 km以内,并于2020-01至2023-07在该中心妇科门诊自然就诊的妇女为研究对象,通过问卷调查、宫颈上皮脱落细胞HPV分型检测,对HPV感染状况及与感染相关因素进行统计学分析。结果该中心周边区域自然就诊的女性共入选5967名,宫颈HPV感染1122例,感染率为18.80%,其中单一感染占78.61%(882/1122),多重感染占21.39%(240/1122)。多重感染包括2~5种HPV亚型的混合感染,其中双重感染率2.77%(165/5967),三重感染率1.06%(63/5967),四重感染率0.15%(9/5967),五重感染率0.05%(3/5967)。HPV高危型单一感染率12.42%(741/5967),HPV低危型单一感染率2.36%(141/5967)。感染率由高到低排名前5位的依次为52型(3.17%)、16型(2.92%)、53型(2.66%)、58型(1.66%)、56型(1.46%)。既往性伙伴个数(OR 1.559,95%CI 1.409~1.724)和初次性生活年龄(OR 0.820,95%CI 0.707~0.952)是HPV感染的相关风险因素。结论该区域内自然就诊的妇女感染HPV亚型有自身特点,以单一感染为主,HPV型别以52型、16型、53型、58型和56型为主,既往性伙伴人数和初次性生活年龄是HPV感染的相关风险因素。

经抗病毒治疗的成年HIV感染/AIDS患者并发结核病预测模型的建立与验证

目的探讨经抗病毒治疗(ART)的成年人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)感染/获得性免疫缺陷综合征(AIDS)患者并发结核病(TB)的影响因素,构建列线图模型预测HIV感染/AIDS患者并发TB风险。方法对2017年2月至2021年2月于重庆市公共卫生医疗救治中心接受ART的1486例HIV感染/AIDS患者进行回顾性研究。采用单因素、多因素Logistic回归分析HIV感染/AIDS患者并发TB的独立危险因素并构建列线图预测模型。绘制受试者工作特征曲线、校准曲线和决策曲线进行内、外部验证,评价模型预测效能和临床实用性。结果男性、开始ART年龄为18~<45岁、世界卫生组织临床分期为Ⅲ期或Ⅳ期、基线CD4+T淋巴细胞计数为200~<350个/μL或<200个/μL、基线病毒载量为10000~100000 copy/mL或>100000 copy/mL和贫血是HIV感染/AIDS患者并发TB的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。训练集及测试集列线图预测模型内外部验证的曲线下面积分别为0.727(95%CI:0.696~0.758)、0.780(95%CI:0.722~0.838)。校准曲线拟合效果良好,决策曲线分析结果显示该模型具有良好的临床收益。结论基于上述独立危险因素建立的HIV感染/AIDS患者并发TB风险的列线图预测模型具有较强的预测效能,能够为早期降低TB发病风险提供科学依据。