为了改进水文建模过程中的不确定性处理,采用一种融合全局优化和数据同化(Simultaneous Optimization and Data Assimilation,SODA)的混合框架,对Hy MOD模型进行了不确定性分析,并与经典SCEM-UA方法进行了比较。SODA方法具有如下特点:(1...为了改进水文建模过程中的不确定性处理,采用一种融合全局优化和数据同化(Simultaneous Optimization and Data Assimilation,SODA)的混合框架,对Hy MOD模型进行了不确定性分析,并与经典SCEM-UA方法进行了比较。SODA方法具有如下特点:(1)具备较高的参数搜索效率和寻优能力;(2)明确考虑包括输入、输出、参数以及模型结构在内的重要不确定性来源。SODA方法在渭河流域的实例应用结果表明:与SCEM-UA方法相比,SODA方法不仅显著提高了预报精度,而且推求出了性质更为优良的预报区间。SODA方法的成功应用,有助于模型概念的改进及对水文系统功能的理解。展开更多
An application of multi-objective particle swarm optimization （MOPSO） algorithm for optimization of the hydrological model （HYMOD） is presented in this paper. MOPSO algorithm is used to find non-dominated solution...An application of multi-objective particle swarm optimization （MOPSO） algorithm for optimization of the hydrological model （HYMOD） is presented in this paper. MOPSO algorithm is used to find non-dominated solutions with two objectives： high flow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and low flow Nash- Sutcliffe efficiency. The two sets＇ coverage rate and Pareto front spacing metric are two criterions to analyze the performance of the algorithms. MOPSO algorithm surpasses multi-objective shuffled complex evolution metcopolis （MOSCEM_UA） algorithr~, in terms of the two sets＇ coverage rate. But when we come to Pareto front spacing rate, the non-dominated solutions of MOSCEM_ UA algorithm are better-distributed than that of MOPSO algorithm when the iteration is set to 40 000. In addition, there are obvious conflicts between the two objectives. But a compromise solution can be acquired by adopting the MOPSO algorithm.展开更多
Floods have caused significant human and economic losses in the Cazones River Basin, located on the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this knowledge, steps towards the design and implementation of an early warning system for th...Floods have caused significant human and economic losses in the Cazones River Basin, located on the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this knowledge, steps towards the design and implementation of an early warning system for the Cazones are still a pending task. In this study we contributed by establishing a hydrological scheme for forecasting mean daily discharges in the Cazones Basin. For these purposes, we calibrated, validated and compared the HyMod model (HM) which is physics-based, and an autoregressive-based model coupled with the Discrete Kalman Filter (ARX-DKF). The ability of both models to accurately predict discharges proved satisfactory results during the validation period with RMSE<sub>HYMOD</sub> = 2.77 [mm/day];and RMSE<sub>ARX-DKF</sub> = [2.38 mm/day]. Further analysis based on a Streamflow Assimilation Ratio (SAR) revealed that both models underestimate the discharges in a similar proportion. This evaluation also showed that, under the most common conditions, the simpler stochastic model (ARX-DKF) performs better;however, under extreme hydrological conditions the deterministic HM model reveals a better performance. These results are discussed under the context of future applications and additional requirements needed to implement an early warning hydrologic system for the Cazones Basin.展开更多
文摘为了改进水文建模过程中的不确定性处理,采用一种融合全局优化和数据同化(Simultaneous Optimization and Data Assimilation,SODA)的混合框架,对Hy MOD模型进行了不确定性分析,并与经典SCEM-UA方法进行了比较。SODA方法具有如下特点:(1)具备较高的参数搜索效率和寻优能力;(2)明确考虑包括输入、输出、参数以及模型结构在内的重要不确定性来源。SODA方法在渭河流域的实例应用结果表明:与SCEM-UA方法相比,SODA方法不仅显著提高了预报精度,而且推求出了性质更为优良的预报区间。SODA方法的成功应用,有助于模型概念的改进及对水文系统功能的理解。
基金NSFC Innovation Team Project,China(NO.50721006)National Key Technologies R&D Program of China during the llth Five-Year Plan Period(NO.2008BAB29B08)
文摘An application of multi-objective particle swarm optimization （MOPSO） algorithm for optimization of the hydrological model （HYMOD） is presented in this paper. MOPSO algorithm is used to find non-dominated solutions with two objectives： high flow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and low flow Nash- Sutcliffe efficiency. The two sets＇ coverage rate and Pareto front spacing metric are two criterions to analyze the performance of the algorithms. MOPSO algorithm surpasses multi-objective shuffled complex evolution metcopolis （MOSCEM_UA） algorithr~, in terms of the two sets＇ coverage rate. But when we come to Pareto front spacing rate, the non-dominated solutions of MOSCEM_ UA algorithm are better-distributed than that of MOPSO algorithm when the iteration is set to 40 000. In addition, there are obvious conflicts between the two objectives. But a compromise solution can be acquired by adopting the MOPSO algorithm.
文摘Floods have caused significant human and economic losses in the Cazones River Basin, located on the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this knowledge, steps towards the design and implementation of an early warning system for the Cazones are still a pending task. In this study we contributed by establishing a hydrological scheme for forecasting mean daily discharges in the Cazones Basin. For these purposes, we calibrated, validated and compared the HyMod model (HM) which is physics-based, and an autoregressive-based model coupled with the Discrete Kalman Filter (ARX-DKF). The ability of both models to accurately predict discharges proved satisfactory results during the validation period with RMSE<sub>HYMOD</sub> = 2.77 [mm/day];and RMSE<sub>ARX-DKF</sub> = [2.38 mm/day]. Further analysis based on a Streamflow Assimilation Ratio (SAR) revealed that both models underestimate the discharges in a similar proportion. This evaluation also showed that, under the most common conditions, the simpler stochastic model (ARX-DKF) performs better;however, under extreme hydrological conditions the deterministic HM model reveals a better performance. These results are discussed under the context of future applications and additional requirements needed to implement an early warning hydrologic system for the Cazones Basin.
