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Functionality analysis of an urban water supply network after strong earthquakes 被引量:3
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作者 Li Jichao Shang Qingxue +2 位作者 Hou Guanjie Li Quanwang Wang Tao 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 SCIE EI CSCD 2021年第2期291-302,共12页
An urban water supply network(WSN)is a crucial lifeline system that helps to maintain the normal functioning of modern society.However,the hydraulic analysis of a significantly damaged WSN that suffers from pipe break... An urban water supply network(WSN)is a crucial lifeline system that helps to maintain the normal functioning of modern society.However,the hydraulic analysis of a significantly damaged WSN that suffers from pipe breaks or leaks remains challenging.In this paper,a probability-based framework is proposed to assess the functionality of WSNs in the aftermath of powerful earthquakes.The serviceability of the WSN is quantified by using a comprehensive index that considers nodal water flow and nodal pressure.This index includes a coefficient that reflects the relative importance of these two parameters.The demand reduction(DR)method,which reduces the water flow of nodes while preventing the negative pressure of nodes,is proposed.The difference between the negative pressure elimination(NPE)method and the DR method is discussed by using the example of a WSN in a medium-sized city in China.The functionality values of the WSN are 0.76 and 0.99 when nodal pressure and nodal demands are used respectively as the index of system serviceability at an intensity level that would pertain to an earthquake considered to occur at a maximum level.When the intensity of ground motion is as high as 0.4 g,the DR method requires fewer samples than the NPE method to obtain accurate results.The NPE method eliminates most of the pipes,which may be unrealistic. 展开更多
关键词 water supply network system serviceability hydraulic analysis negative pressure elimination benchmark city
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Optimal Dispatching of Large-scale Water Supply System 被引量:3
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作者 吕谋 SONG Shuang +1 位作者 Zhao Hongbin ZHANG Tuqiao 《High Technology Letters》 EI CAS 2003年第2期21-26,共6页
This paper deals with the use of optimal control techniques in large-scale water distribution networks. According to the network characteristics and actual state of the water supply system in China, the implicit model... This paper deals with the use of optimal control techniques in large-scale water distribution networks. According to the network characteristics and actual state of the water supply system in China, the implicit model, which may be solved by utilizing the hierarchical optimization method, is established. In special, based on the analyses of the water supply system containing variable-speed pumps, a software tool has been developed successfully. The application of this model to the city of Shenyang (China) is compared to experiential strategy. The results of this study show that the developed model is a very promising optimization method to control the large-scale water supply systems. 展开更多
关键词 optimal dispatching water supply system water networks implicit model hierarchical optimization
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Seismic reliability analysis of urban water distribution network 被引量:1
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作者 李杰 卫书麟 刘威 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 SCIE EI CSCD 2006年第1期71-77,共7页
An approach to analyze the seismic reliability of water distribution networks by combining a hydraulic analysis with a first-order reliability method (FORM), is proposed in this paper. The hydraulic analysis method ... An approach to analyze the seismic reliability of water distribution networks by combining a hydraulic analysis with a first-order reliability method (FORM), is proposed in this paper. The hydraulic analysis method for normal conditions is modified to accommodate the special conditions necessary to perform a seismic hydraulic analysis. In order to calculate the leakage area and leaking flow of the pipelines in the hydraulic analysis method, a new leakage model established from the seismic response analysis of buried pipelines is presented. To validate the proposed approach, a network with 17 nodes and 24 pipelines is investigated in detail. The approach is also applied to an actual project consisting of 463 nodes and 767 pipelines. The results show that the proposed approach achieves satisfactory results in analyzing the seismic reliability of large-scale water distribution networks. 展开更多
关键词 water distribution network leakage model hydraulic analysis FORM seismic capacity reliability
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Improved Water Network Macroscopic Model Utilising Auto-Control Adjusting Valve by PLS
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作者 李霞 赵新华 王晓东 《Transactions of Tianjin University》 EI CAS 2005年第6期452-457,共6页
In order to overcome the low precision and weak applicability problems of the current municipal water network state simulation model, the water network structure is studied. Since the telemetry system has been applied... In order to overcome the low precision and weak applicability problems of the current municipal water network state simulation model, the water network structure is studied. Since the telemetry system has been applied increasingly in the water network, and in order to reflect the network operational condition more accurately, a new water network macroscopic model is developed by taking the auto-control adjusting valve opening state into consideration. Then for highly correlated or collinear independent variables in the model, the partial least squares (PLS) regression method provides a model solution which can distinguish between the system information and the noisy data. Finally, a hypothetical water network is introduced for validating the model. The simulation results show that the relative error is less than 5.2%, indicating that the model is efficient and feasible, and has better generalization performance. 展开更多
关键词 water supply network state simulation macroscopic model auto-control adjusting valve partial least squares PLS) regression
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Joint optimization scheduling for water conservancy projects incomplex river networks 被引量:6
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作者 Qin Liu Guo-hua Fang +1 位作者 Hong-bin Sun Xue-wen Wu 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS CSCD 2017年第1期43-52,共10页
In this study, we simulated water flow in a water conservancy project consisting of various hydraulic structures, such as sluices, pumping stations, hydropower stations, ship locks, and culverts, and developed a multi... In this study, we simulated water flow in a water conservancy project consisting of various hydraulic structures, such as sluices, pumping stations, hydropower stations, ship locks, and culverts, and developed a multi-period and multi-variable joint optimization scheduling model for flood control, drainage, and irrigation. In this model, the number of sluice holes, pump units, and hydropower station units to be opened were used as decision variables, and different optimization objectives and constraints were considered. This model was solved with improved genetic algorithms and verified using the Huaian Water Conservancy Project as an example. The results show that the use of the joint optimization scheduling led to a 10% increase in the power generation capacity and a 15% reduction in the total energy consumption. The change in the water level was reduced by 0.25 m upstream of the Yundong Sluice, and by 50% downstream of pumping stations No. 1, No. 2, and No. 4. It is clear that the joint optimization scheduling proposed in this study can effectively improve power generation capacity of the project, minimize operating costs and energy consumption, and enable more stable operation of various hydraulic structures. The results may provide references for the management of water conservancy projects in complex river networks. 展开更多
关键词 Complex river network water conservancy project hydraulic structure Flow capacity simulation Scheduling model Optimal scheduling
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基于Model Online给水管网水力模型的分析与应用
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作者 唐晓莉 张永丽 《资源开发与市场》 CAS CSSCI 2013年第3期262-264,共3页
为了更好地模拟和优化西南H镇城乡供水管网的设计,应用Model Online给水管网平差软件,综合考虑供水安全性与经济性对管网进行优化和模拟,得出最佳供水效果,以指导设计施工,为供水技术进入互联网时代探寻新的道路。
关键词 modelOnline 供水 管网优化 平差 水力模型
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Hydraulic model for multi-sources reclaimed water pipe network based on EPANET and its applications in Beijing, China 被引量:1
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作者 Haifeng JIA Wei WEI Kunlun XIN 《Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2008年第1期57-62,共6页
Water shortage is one of the major water related problems for many cities in the world.The planning for utilization of reclaimed water has been or would be drafted in these cities.For using the reclaimed water soundly... Water shortage is one of the major water related problems for many cities in the world.The planning for utilization of reclaimed water has been or would be drafted in these cities.For using the reclaimed water soundly,Beijing planned to build a large scale reclaimed water pipe networks with multi-sources.In order to support the plan,the integrated hydraulic model of planning pipe network was developed based on EPANET supported by geographic information system(GIS).The complicated pipe network was divided into four weak conjunction subzones according to the distribution of reclaimed water plants and the elevation.It could provide a better solution for the problem of overhigh pressure in several regions of the network.Through the scenarios analy-sis in different subzones,some of the initial diameter of pipes in the network was adjusted.At last the pipe network planning scheme of reclaimed water was proposed.The proposed planning scheme could reach the balances between reclaimed water requirements and reclaimed water supplies,and provided a scientific basis for the reclaimed water utilization in Beijing.Now the scheme had been adopted by Beijing municipal government. 展开更多
关键词 hydraulic model multi-sources reclaimed water pipe network EPANET GIS BEIJING
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Predictive Zone Control of Pressure Management for Water Supply Network Systems
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作者 Dong-Ming Liu Shao-Yuan Li 《International Journal of Automation and computing》 EI CSCD 2016年第6期607-614,共8页
In this paper we address the problem of pressure management in water supply system (WSS) network. The model-based predictive control (MPC) strategies have some important features to deal with WSS. By hydraulic ana... In this paper we address the problem of pressure management in water supply system (WSS) network. The model-based predictive control (MPC) strategies have some important features to deal with WSS. By hydraulic analysis of WSS, the predictive model is derived from the dynamic model and static model of WSS. Through WSS, the consumers' demands are required to be met at all times according to some operational constraints that must be satisfied. The constraints of flow through actuators, the water level of reservoirs and the consumer areas' pressure demand are determined by a specific system. In this work, we develop a constrained MPC controller that considers the zone control of the pressure outputs and incorporates steady state economic targets in the control cost function. The designed management strategies are applied to a case study and simulation results, covering different aspects, are provided. The output nodal pressure can be controlled in the desired zone by optimal scheduling the actuators of the WSS. If the variation range of reservoir's water level is broader, the rate of flow through the actuators is gentle, and vice versa. 展开更多
关键词 water supply system (WSS) network mathematical modelling zone control pressure control model predictive control(MPC).
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Back-Propagation Artificial Neural Networks for Water Supply Pipeline Model
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作者 朱东海 张土乔 毛根海 《Tsinghua Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CAS 2002年第5期527-531,共5页
Water supply pipelines are the lifelines of a city. When pipelines burst, the burst site is difficult to locate by traditional methods such as manual tools or only by watching. In this paper, the burst site was iden... Water supply pipelines are the lifelines of a city. When pipelines burst, the burst site is difficult to locate by traditional methods such as manual tools or only by watching. In this paper, the burst site was identified using back-propagation (BP) artificial neural networks (ANN). The study is based on an indoor urban water supply model experiment. The key to appling BP ANN is to optimize the ANN's topological structure and learning parameters. This paper presents the optimizing method for a 3-layer BP neural network's topological structure and its learning parameters-learning ratio and the momentum factor. The indoor water supply pipeline model experimental results show that BP ANNs can be used to locate the burst point in urban water supply systems. The topological structure and learning parameters were optimized using the experimental results. 展开更多
关键词 back-propagation artificial neural network (BP ANN) learning ratio momentum factor water supply pipelines model experiment
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考虑水质因素的供水管网抗震韧性评估
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作者 侯本伟 黄金美 +1 位作者 韩朝 吴珊 《地震工程与工程振动》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第2期19-29,共11页
城市基础设施系统抗震韧性分析模型是评估城市防震减灾能力并指导震后恢复工作的重要依据。提出了耦合水力与水质模拟的供水管网抗震韧性评估模型。根据管道地震易损性模型和Monte Carlo模拟生成管网地震破坏场景,并采用动态重要度方法... 城市基础设施系统抗震韧性分析模型是评估城市防震减灾能力并指导震后恢复工作的重要依据。提出了耦合水力与水质模拟的供水管网抗震韧性评估模型。根据管道地震易损性模型和Monte Carlo模拟生成管网地震破坏场景,并采用动态重要度方法模拟管网震后修复过程。通过管网中余氯浓度的降低表示地震破坏对管网水质的负面影响,震后管网余氯浓度的变化取决于管道破坏引起的供水路径和水量的变化。采用震后余氯浓度未下降的用户节点供水量,作为管网系统水质性能评估指标。所提出的模型应用于2个不同布局的Benchmark案例管网。研究结果表明:管道破损处的水量漏失导致其上游管道的水流量增加、余氯浓度增大,下游管道的供水路径延长、余氯浓度减小。管网的水质韧性值往往低于水力韧性值,水力和水质韧性相对差异程度受到管网布局和运行规则的影响,文中案例管网水质和水力指标计算的抗震韧性损失指标的相对差异在17%~286%之间;运行规则复杂且含有调节水箱的管网,其水力和水质韧性的差异较大。 展开更多
关键词 供水管网 抗震韧性 韧性指标 水质模型 水力模型
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给水管网爆管水力水质综合影响分析方法的研究
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作者 张卉 周俊阳 +5 位作者 王张弛 范明洲 冯永嘉 贾培馨 万涛 卢金锁 《安全与环境学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第12期4705-4713,共9页
给水管网爆管事故严重威胁着城市供水的安全性,建立一套完善的事故影响分析体系,对于降低事故损失和提高供水安全具有重要意义。围绕给水管网爆管事故造成的水力和水质影响,建立了爆管失效的压力驱动水力模型与水质模型,针对全局梯度算... 给水管网爆管事故严重威胁着城市供水的安全性,建立一套完善的事故影响分析体系,对于降低事故损失和提高供水安全具有重要意义。围绕给水管网爆管事故造成的水力和水质影响,建立了爆管失效的压力驱动水力模型与水质模型,针对全局梯度算法迭代初值的敏感性问题,提出了基于拟牛顿和粒子群的混合优化算法,即先利用智能算法找到较优的迭代初值,再利用拟牛顿法进行局部精细搜索获取最优解,实现了管网失效状态的仿真模拟。实际应用结果显示,爆管造成管网节点压力最大降幅达到82%,余氯质量浓度最大降幅为39%,事故对压力影响更为显著;爆管关阀后停水区域的下游节点,压力和余氯质量浓度分别平均降低了77%和27%。 展开更多
关键词 安全社会工程 给水管网 爆管 水力模型 混合粒子群优化算法
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基于一元线性回归模型的供水网络中水表读数虚高问题研究 被引量:1
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作者 韩义秀 《浙江工贸职业技术学院学报》 2024年第1期70-73,84,共5页
为了定量研究供水网络中总表漏水程度和分表读数虚高程度,根据水量平衡分析法的原理,结合大数据分析技术,建立了一元线性回归方程,回归常数代表总表漏水量程度,回归系数代表分表读数虚高程度。通过针对2021年某高校供水管网的实证研究表... 为了定量研究供水网络中总表漏水程度和分表读数虚高程度,根据水量平衡分析法的原理,结合大数据分析技术,建立了一元线性回归方程,回归常数代表总表漏水量程度,回归系数代表分表读数虚高程度。通过针对2021年某高校供水管网的实证研究表明,总表日均漏水量为15.5958吨,分表读数虚高率为1.07%。该方法对供水管网漏损率的精准评估等问题的解决提供了新的思路和方法。 展开更多
关键词 供水网络 水量平衡分析法 一元线性回归模型 漏水量 虚高
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基于压力估计的供水管网水力模型校核
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作者 张运鑫 李海峰 +1 位作者 王琦 龙岩 《海河水利》 2024年第9期74-79,共6页
供水管网水力模型校核过程中,由于监测点个数较少而校核的参数过多,校核结果往往与实际不符。为使校核结果较为符合实际,提出一种基于压力估计的水力模型校核方法,根据实测监测点压力和入口流量数据估计非监测点的压力,并将估计的节点... 供水管网水力模型校核过程中,由于监测点个数较少而校核的参数过多,校核结果往往与实际不符。为使校核结果较为符合实际,提出一种基于压力估计的水力模型校核方法,根据实测监测点压力和入口流量数据估计非监测点的压力,并将估计的节点压力作为校核问题中的已知条件。以管道海曾威廉系数为校核参数,使用多层感知器(Multilayer perceptron,MLP)估计节点压力,使用遗传算法(Genetic algorithm,GA)优化目标函数。案例分析表明,提出的MLP-GA比GA校核效果更好,3个监测点压力绝对误差之和从37.81 m减小到33.65 m,降幅达11.0%;管道海曾威廉系数的绝对误差之和从933.5降低到847.0,降幅达9.27%。 展开更多
关键词 供水管网系统 水力模型 校核 压力估计 神经网络
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深圳市典型小区供水水力水质模型建设与应用 被引量:1
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作者 张素琼 冀滨弘 +1 位作者 郭姣 许苗苗 《净水技术》 CAS 2024年第S01期63-70,共8页
文章选择深圳市两个经过优质饮用水改造和远传水表安装的典型居民小区,通过小区供水管网与爬墙立管的拓扑绘制、用户水表挂接、用水量分配和用水模式设置、监测和校核数据设置、二供水泵曲线提取、边界条件设置等关键问题研究,建立起楼... 文章选择深圳市两个经过优质饮用水改造和远传水表安装的典型居民小区,通过小区供水管网与爬墙立管的拓扑绘制、用户水表挂接、用水量分配和用水模式设置、监测和校核数据设置、二供水泵曲线提取、边界条件设置等关键问题研究,建立起楼宇水力和水质模型。经过多点、连续和多时段实测数据的比对校核,使模型达到较好的精度。在此基础上,开展小区用户风险模拟、快速风险评估、二供运行优化等应用。该研究为探索小区模型的建设和应用提供了基础,初步形成小区水力、水质特征研究和评估的理论与方法。 展开更多
关键词 居民小区 水力模型 水质模型 风险评估 二次供水
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水力条件对供水管网微生物影响研究进展
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作者 房志伟 杨川 +1 位作者 徐强 强志民 《给水排水》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第6期164-169,共6页
供水管网内微生物异常增殖会降低水质,威胁用户用水安全,因此控制管网微生物是保障饮用水安全的重要措施。管网微生物的生长和去除受到管网水力条件的影响,且在管网不同位置处所受影响程度不同。综述了水力停留时间和流速对管网微生物... 供水管网内微生物异常增殖会降低水质,威胁用户用水安全,因此控制管网微生物是保障饮用水安全的重要措施。管网微生物的生长和去除受到管网水力条件的影响,且在管网不同位置处所受影响程度不同。综述了水力停留时间和流速对管网微生物生长的影响,以及水力冲刷对生物膜的去除作用,发现水力停留时间和流速对微生物量与群落结构有显著影响,水力冲刷对不同条件下形成的管壁生物膜去除效果不同,研究结果可为供水管网微生物控制的研究和应用提供重要参考。 展开更多
关键词 供水管网 水力条件 微生物
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基于供水管网水力模型的市政管网消防供水能力研究 被引量:1
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作者 聂军 庞愉文 赵家晓 《消防科学与技术》 CAS 北大核心 2024年第7期1032-1036,共5页
为提高城市消防安全水平和火场救援的效率和质量,基于供水管网水力模型,对市政管网消防供水能力进行研究,利用算法分析计算应急状态下满足消防取水需求的市政管网最大消防给水量,得出市政给水设施在火灾条件下的实际给水能力。填补城市... 为提高城市消防安全水平和火场救援的效率和质量,基于供水管网水力模型,对市政管网消防供水能力进行研究,利用算法分析计算应急状态下满足消防取水需求的市政管网最大消防给水量,得出市政给水设施在火灾条件下的实际给水能力。填补城市消防给水设施管理部门和消防实战应用单位之间的真空地带,解决各信息之间的“信息断层”和应用系统之间的“信息孤岛”问题,充分发挥城市消防给水设施效能,保障消防安全。 展开更多
关键词 市政管网 供水管网水力模型 消防供水能力 水力特性 算法研究
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基于模型驱动的供水自适应调度应用研究 被引量:1
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作者 戴雄奇 徐维发 +2 位作者 华兵 朱杰 徐琛宇 《给水排水》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第5期141-146,共6页
随着供水企业精细化管理需求的日益增长,对供水调度的要求也随之提升。研究了基于水力模型的供水管网自适应优化调度方法,通过建立水力模型及水量预测模型,基于遗传退火模拟搜索算法,建立了优化调度的数学模型,同时结合工况聚类分析,大... 随着供水企业精细化管理需求的日益增长,对供水调度的要求也随之提升。研究了基于水力模型的供水管网自适应优化调度方法,通过建立水力模型及水量预测模型,基于遗传退火模拟搜索算法,建立了优化调度的数学模型,同时结合工况聚类分析,大大降低搜索算法运算量,提升优化调度方案生成效率,实现供水管网自适应调度系统。此外,该系统与厂站控制系统对接完成自动调度控制,实现了系统自动厂站、管网优化调度。基于深圳市FY水司实际生产工况,实现区域内供水压力平稳,整体配电能耗下降约3%,系统调度方案生成时间不超过40 s,调度指令自动执行时间优于30 s,运行效果显著,有效提升了调度效率,实现供水调度的提质增效。 展开更多
关键词 水力模型 供水管网 自适应 调度
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基于串级LSTM深度学习模型的二次供水余氯预测方法
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作者 肖磊 李中伟 +3 位作者 刘书明 陈春芳 吴雪 伍丽燕 《净水技术》 CAS 2024年第8期160-166,共7页
伴随着城市高层住宅的增多,住宅区内二次供水泵房数量迅速增加。由于二次供水水箱位于城市供水系统末端,水质安全引起社会广泛关注。为提升水箱水质,一些泵房引入自动补氯装置,然而传统自动控制方法在应对二次供水系统中长时间延迟和非... 伴随着城市高层住宅的增多,住宅区内二次供水泵房数量迅速增加。由于二次供水水箱位于城市供水系统末端,水质安全引起社会广泛关注。为提升水箱水质,一些泵房引入自动补氯装置,然而传统自动控制方法在应对二次供水系统中长时间延迟和非线性特性的补氯系统时存在局限性,仅能在线监测水箱余氯水平,过多的余氯可能对人体健康有害,因此,确保自动补氯系统安全运行成为亟待解决的问题。研究提出基于串级LSTM深度学习的神经网络模型,用于分析水箱余氯数据、准确预测水箱出水余氯浓度,并制定相应监测和控制策略。试验验证和实际应用结果表明,该深度学习模型能有效智能预测水箱余氯,为自动补氯系统提供重要的智能控制手段,具有实用意义。 展开更多
关键词 二次供水 水箱补氯 LSTM 深度学习 余氯预测 时间序列 串级网络模型
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基于深度聚类的供水管网分区构建方法研究
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作者 于朋朋 黄云峰 +3 位作者 彭森 张万超 周悦 樊锦凯 《给水排水》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第9期134-141,148,共9页
在供水系统管理中,分区管理是进行管网运营、压力管理和漏损控制的有效工具,其构建方法直接影响分区效能的发挥程度。然而,大多数分区方法通常未能充分考虑管网的拓扑结构与水力状态之间的复杂相互作用,所得分区方案无法充分利用现有分... 在供水系统管理中,分区管理是进行管网运营、压力管理和漏损控制的有效工具,其构建方法直接影响分区效能的发挥程度。然而,大多数分区方法通常未能充分考虑管网的拓扑结构与水力状态之间的复杂相互作用,所得分区方案无法充分利用现有分区设施,在实际工程应用中面临困难。鉴于此,提出了一种基于结构性深度聚类网络(Structural Deep Clustering Network,SDCN)的供水管网分区构建方法。使用SDCN有机融合管网拓扑结构和水力状态信息进行聚类分析,根据聚类结果以及管网计量设施实际情况,对孤立节点进行归类分析,提出聚类边界调整的有效计算方法,以形成最终分区方案。与两种经典的管网聚类方法相比,该方法具有更好的管网节点聚类精度,分区结果面向工程实际需求,可以为管网分区规划与建设提供有效的技术支撑。 展开更多
关键词 分区 供水管网 结构性深度聚类网络 水力模型
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我国西南地区基于人口和GDP的城市供水管网地震易损性模型
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作者 李长宏 郭恩栋 +1 位作者 吴厚礼 代鑫 《自然灾害学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第5期139-145,共7页
供水管网是城镇生命线工程的重要组成部分,科学合理的供水管网地震易损性模型是实施灾害风险调查和重点隐患排查工程的关键科学问题之一,特别是大区域供水管网地震灾害风险评估需要明确供水管网分区分类地震易损性模型作为支撑。然而,... 供水管网是城镇生命线工程的重要组成部分,科学合理的供水管网地震易损性模型是实施灾害风险调查和重点隐患排查工程的关键科学问题之一,特别是大区域供水管网地震灾害风险评估需要明确供水管网分区分类地震易损性模型作为支撑。然而,由于供水管网发展过程的复杂性等相关原因,许多城镇尚无法提供准确有效的管网基础数据以进行有效的地震易损性评估。为了建立我国西南地区无管网基础数据的城镇供水管网的地震易损性模型,基于已经建立的有管网基础数据的城市供水管网地震易损性模型,采用多项式拟合方法,分别给出了有管网基础数据城镇供水管网的规模、地震易损性类别与城镇人口、GDP之间的关系模型,进而可根据无管网基础数据的城镇人口、GDP数据估计其管网规模和地震易损性类别,为全面开展大区域供水管网地震灾害风险评估奠定了基础。 展开更多
关键词 供水管网 回归模型 多项式拟合 地震易损性 地震灾害风险评估
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