A previously developed hybrid coupled model(HCM)is composed of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM),denoted as HCMAGCM.In this study,different El Ni...A previously developed hybrid coupled model(HCM)is composed of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM),denoted as HCMAGCM.In this study,different El Niño flavors,namely the Eastern-Pacific(EP)and Central-Pacific(CP)types,and the associated global atmospheric teleconnections are examined in a 1000-yr control simulation of the HCMAGCM.The HCMAGCM indicates profoundly different characteristics among EP and CP El Niño events in terms of related oceanic and atmospheric variables in the tropical Pacific,including the amplitude and spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST),zonal wind stress,and precipitation anomalies.An SST budget analysis indicates that the thermocline feedback and zonal advective feedback dominantly contribute to the growth of EP and CP El Niño events,respectively.Corresponding to the shifts in the tropical rainfall and deep convection during EP and CP El Niño events,the model also reproduces the differences in the extratropical atmospheric responses during the boreal winter.In particular,the EP El Niño tends to be dominant in exciting a poleward wave train pattern to the Northern Hemisphere,while the CP El Niño tends to preferably produce a wave train similar to the Pacific North American(PNA)pattern.As a result,different climatic impacts exist in North American regions,with a warm-north and cold-south pattern during an EP El Niño and a warm-northeast and cold-southwest pattern during a CP El Niño,respectively.This modeling result highlights the importance of internal natural processes within the tropical Pacific as they relate to the genesis of ENSO diversity because the active ocean–atmosphere coupling is allowed only in the tropical Pacific within the framework of the HCMAGCM.展开更多
The dynamical prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon(AAM)has been an important and long-standing issue in climate science.In this study,the predictability of the first two leading modes of the AAM is studied using...The dynamical prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon(AAM)has been an important and long-standing issue in climate science.In this study,the predictability of the first two leading modes of the AAM is studied using retrospective prediction datasets from the seasonal forecasting models in four operational centers worldwide.Results show that the model predictability of the leading AAM modes is sensitive to how they are defined in different seasonal sequences,especially for the second mode.The first AAM mode,from various seasonal sequences,coincides with the El Niño phase transition in the eastern-central Pacific.The second mode,initialized from boreal summer and autumn,leads El Niño by about one year but can exist during the decay phase of El Niño when initialized from boreal winter and spring.Our findings hint that ENSO,as an early signal,is conducive to better performance of model predictions in capturing the spatiotemporal variations of the leading AAM modes.Still,the persistence barrier of ENSO in spring leads to poor forecasting skills of spatial features.The multimodel ensemble(MME)mean shows some advantage in capturing the spatiotemporal variations of the AAM modes but does not provide a significant improvement in predicting its temporal features compared to the best individual models in predicting its temporal features.The BCC_CSM1.1M shows promising skill in predicting the two AAM indices associated with two leading AAM modes.The predictability demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for AAM prediction in operational and climate services.展开更多
优化氮肥施用和秸秆还田技术为途径的农业管理措施被认为是提升农业可持续性的有效手段,然而当前关于氮肥和秸秆还田对小麦产量和N_(2)O排放影响的研究仍十分有限。为此,本研究基于2000—2022年发表的关于长江中下游流域氮肥和秸秆投入...优化氮肥施用和秸秆还田技术为途径的农业管理措施被认为是提升农业可持续性的有效手段,然而当前关于氮肥和秸秆还田对小麦产量和N_(2)O排放影响的研究仍十分有限。为此,本研究基于2000—2022年发表的关于长江中下游流域氮肥和秸秆投入下小麦产量和N_(2)O排放变化的文献,运用随机森林建模,定量分析氮肥和秸秆还田对小麦产量和N_(2)O排放的影响,并结合情景设置进行了特定地点的小麦产量和N_(2)O排放模拟,同时评估了碳排放强度(CEE)和净生态系统经济效益(NEEB)。结果表明,建立的区域尺度小麦产量与N_(2)O排放对氮秸互作响应的随机森林模型,验证结果R^(2)分别为0.66和0.65,RMSE分别为0.70和1.11。结果表明施氮量和土壤有机质是影响小麦产量和N_(2)O排放的重要因素。综合来看,达到最大产量所需的氮肥量为208~212 kg hm^(-2),达到最小CEE所需的氮肥量为113~130 kg hm^(-2),达到最高的NEEB所需的氮肥量为202~205 kg hm^(-2),其中在6.75 t hm^(-2)的秸秆投入下施用202 kg hm^(-2)的氮肥可以获得最高的生态收益1.37万元。优化氮肥和秸秆投入具备减少作物碳排放强度并获得最大净生态环境效益的潜力。展开更多
In order to numerically simulate daily nitrous oxide （N2O） emission from a rice-winter wheat rotation cropping system, a process-based site model was developed （referred to as IAP-N-GAS） to track the movement and ...In order to numerically simulate daily nitrous oxide （N2O） emission from a rice-winter wheat rotation cropping system, a process-based site model was developed （referred to as IAP-N-GAS） to track the movement and transformation of several forms of nitrogen in the agro-eeosystem, which is affected by climate, soil, crop growth and management practices. The simulation of daily N2O fluxes, along with key daily environmental variables, was validated with three-year observations conducted in East China. The validation demonstrated that the model simulated well daily solar radiation, soil temperature and moisture, and also captured the dynamics and magnitude of accumulated rice aboveground biomass and mineral nitrogen in the soil. The simulated daily N2O emissions over all three years investigated were generally in good agreement with field observations. Particularly well simulated were the peak N2O emissions induced by fertilizations, rainfall events or mid-season drainages. The model simulation also represented closely the inter-annuM variation in N2O emission. These validations imply that the model has the capability to capture the general characteristics of N2O emission from a typical rice-wheat rotation agro-ecosystem. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the simulated N2O emission is most sensitive to the fertilizer application rate and the soil organic matter content, but it is much less sensitive to variations in soil pH and texture, temperature, precipitation and crop residue incorporation rate under local conditions.展开更多
Salt lake brine is a complex salt-water system under natural environment.Although many models can express the thermodynamic properties and phase equilibrium of electrolyte aqueous solution,the multi-temperature charac...Salt lake brine is a complex salt-water system under natural environment.Although many models can express the thermodynamic properties and phase equilibrium of electrolyte aqueous solution,the multi-temperature characteristics and predictability are still the goals of model development.In this study,a comprehensive thermodynamic model system is re-established based on the eNRTL model and some improvements:(1) new expression of long-range electrostatic term with symmetrical reference state is proposed to handle the electrolyte solution covering entire concentration range;(2) the temperature dependence of the binary interaction parameters is formulated with a Gibbs Helmholtz expression containing three temperature coefficients,the liquid parameters,which associated with Gibbs energy,enthalpy,and heat capacity contribution;and(3) liquid parameters and solid species data are regressed from properties and solubility data at full temperature range.Together the activity coefficient model,property models and parameters of liquid and solid offer a comprehensive thermodynamic model system for the typical bittern of MgCl2-CaCl2-H2 O binary and ternary systems,and it shows excellent agreement with the literature data for the ternary and binary systems.The successful prediction of complete phase diagram of ternary system shows that the model has the ability to deal with high concentration and high non-idealitv system,and the ability to extrapolate the temperature.展开更多
We investigate the area distribution of clusters （loops） in the honeycomb O（n） loop model by means of the worm algorithm with n = 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2. At the critical point, the number of clusters, whose enclosed a...We investigate the area distribution of clusters （loops） in the honeycomb O（n） loop model by means of the worm algorithm with n = 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2. At the critical point, the number of clusters, whose enclosed area is greater than A, is proportional to A-1 with a proportionality constant C. We confirm numerically that C is universal, and its value agrees well with the predictions based on the Coulomb gas method.展开更多
The El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Oceanatmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO...The El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Oceanatmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO model is used. And based on a class of oscillator of ENSO model, the approximate solution of a corresponding problem is studied by employing the perturbation method. Firstly, an ENSO model of nonlinear time delay equation of equatorial Pacific is introduced, Secondly, by using the perturbed method, the zeroth and first order asymptotic perturbed solutions are constructed. Finally, from the comparison of the values for a figure, it is seen that the first asymptotic perturbed solution using the perturbation method has a good accuracy. And it is proved from the results that the perturbation method can be used as an analytic operation for the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model.展开更多
DNDC, a rainfall-driven and process-oriented model of soil carbon and nitrogenbiogeochemistry, is applied t0 simulate the nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural ecosystem inSoutheast China. We simulated the soil N2...DNDC, a rainfall-driven and process-oriented model of soil carbon and nitrogenbiogeochemistry, is applied t0 simulate the nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural ecosystem inSoutheast China. We simulated the soil N2O emission during a whole rice-wheat rotation cycle(from Nov. 1, 1996 to Oct. 31, 1997) under three different conditions, which are A) no fertilizer, B)both chemical fertilizer and manure and, C) chemical fertiliser only. The processes ofN2O emission were discussed in detail by comparing the model outputs with the results from fieldmeasurement. The comparison shows that the model is good at simulating most of theNzO emission pulses and trends. Although the simulated N2O emission fluxes are generally lessthan the measured ones, the model outputs during the dryland period, especially during the wheatreviving and maturing stages in spring, are much better than those during the paddy field period.Some sensitive experiments were made by simulating the N2O emissions in spring, when there is asmallest gap between the simulated fluxes and the measured ones. Meanwhile, the effects of someimportant regulating factors, such as the rainfall N deposition by rainfall, temperature, tillage, nitrogen fertilizer and manure application on N2O emission during this period were analyzed. Fromthe analysis, we draw a conclusion that soil moisture and fertilization are the most important regulating factors while the N2O emission is sensitive to some other factors, such as temperature, manure, tillage and the wet deposition of atmospheric nitrate.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFCGrant No.42275061)+3 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB40000000)the Laoshan Laboratory(Grant No.LSKJ202202404)the NSFC(Grant No.42030410)the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology.
文摘A previously developed hybrid coupled model(HCM)is composed of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM),denoted as HCMAGCM.In this study,different El Niño flavors,namely the Eastern-Pacific(EP)and Central-Pacific(CP)types,and the associated global atmospheric teleconnections are examined in a 1000-yr control simulation of the HCMAGCM.The HCMAGCM indicates profoundly different characteristics among EP and CP El Niño events in terms of related oceanic and atmospheric variables in the tropical Pacific,including the amplitude and spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST),zonal wind stress,and precipitation anomalies.An SST budget analysis indicates that the thermocline feedback and zonal advective feedback dominantly contribute to the growth of EP and CP El Niño events,respectively.Corresponding to the shifts in the tropical rainfall and deep convection during EP and CP El Niño events,the model also reproduces the differences in the extratropical atmospheric responses during the boreal winter.In particular,the EP El Niño tends to be dominant in exciting a poleward wave train pattern to the Northern Hemisphere,while the CP El Niño tends to preferably produce a wave train similar to the Pacific North American(PNA)pattern.As a result,different climatic impacts exist in North American regions,with a warm-north and cold-south pattern during an EP El Niño and a warm-northeast and cold-southwest pattern during a CP El Niño,respectively.This modeling result highlights the importance of internal natural processes within the tropical Pacific as they relate to the genesis of ENSO diversity because the active ocean–atmosphere coupling is allowed only in the tropical Pacific within the framework of the HCMAGCM.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2242206,41975094 and 41905062)the National Key Research and Development Program on monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster(Grant Nos.2017YFC1502302 and 2018YFC1506005)+1 种基金the Basic Research and Operational Special Project of CAMS(Grant No.2021Z007)the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China.
文摘The dynamical prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon(AAM)has been an important and long-standing issue in climate science.In this study,the predictability of the first two leading modes of the AAM is studied using retrospective prediction datasets from the seasonal forecasting models in four operational centers worldwide.Results show that the model predictability of the leading AAM modes is sensitive to how they are defined in different seasonal sequences,especially for the second mode.The first AAM mode,from various seasonal sequences,coincides with the El Niño phase transition in the eastern-central Pacific.The second mode,initialized from boreal summer and autumn,leads El Niño by about one year but can exist during the decay phase of El Niño when initialized from boreal winter and spring.Our findings hint that ENSO,as an early signal,is conducive to better performance of model predictions in capturing the spatiotemporal variations of the leading AAM modes.Still,the persistence barrier of ENSO in spring leads to poor forecasting skills of spatial features.The multimodel ensemble(MME)mean shows some advantage in capturing the spatiotemporal variations of the AAM modes but does not provide a significant improvement in predicting its temporal features compared to the best individual models in predicting its temporal features.The BCC_CSM1.1M shows promising skill in predicting the two AAM indices associated with two leading AAM modes.The predictability demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for AAM prediction in operational and climate services.
文摘优化氮肥施用和秸秆还田技术为途径的农业管理措施被认为是提升农业可持续性的有效手段,然而当前关于氮肥和秸秆还田对小麦产量和N_(2)O排放影响的研究仍十分有限。为此,本研究基于2000—2022年发表的关于长江中下游流域氮肥和秸秆投入下小麦产量和N_(2)O排放变化的文献,运用随机森林建模,定量分析氮肥和秸秆还田对小麦产量和N_(2)O排放的影响,并结合情景设置进行了特定地点的小麦产量和N_(2)O排放模拟,同时评估了碳排放强度(CEE)和净生态系统经济效益(NEEB)。结果表明,建立的区域尺度小麦产量与N_(2)O排放对氮秸互作响应的随机森林模型,验证结果R^(2)分别为0.66和0.65,RMSE分别为0.70和1.11。结果表明施氮量和土壤有机质是影响小麦产量和N_(2)O排放的重要因素。综合来看,达到最大产量所需的氮肥量为208~212 kg hm^(-2),达到最小CEE所需的氮肥量为113~130 kg hm^(-2),达到最高的NEEB所需的氮肥量为202~205 kg hm^(-2),其中在6.75 t hm^(-2)的秸秆投入下施用202 kg hm^(-2)的氮肥可以获得最高的生态收益1.37万元。优化氮肥和秸秆投入具备减少作物碳排放强度并获得最大净生态环境效益的潜力。
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-204, KSCX3-SW-440, KZCX1-SW-01)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40425010, 40331014)+1 种基金the European Union (NitroEurope IP 017841)the Helmholtz Society via the Sino-German Joint Laboratory project ENTRANCE
文摘In order to numerically simulate daily nitrous oxide （N2O） emission from a rice-winter wheat rotation cropping system, a process-based site model was developed （referred to as IAP-N-GAS） to track the movement and transformation of several forms of nitrogen in the agro-eeosystem, which is affected by climate, soil, crop growth and management practices. The simulation of daily N2O fluxes, along with key daily environmental variables, was validated with three-year observations conducted in East China. The validation demonstrated that the model simulated well daily solar radiation, soil temperature and moisture, and also captured the dynamics and magnitude of accumulated rice aboveground biomass and mineral nitrogen in the soil. The simulated daily N2O emissions over all three years investigated were generally in good agreement with field observations. Particularly well simulated were the peak N2O emissions induced by fertilizations, rainfall events or mid-season drainages. The model simulation also represented closely the inter-annuM variation in N2O emission. These validations imply that the model has the capability to capture the general characteristics of N2O emission from a typical rice-wheat rotation agro-ecosystem. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the simulated N2O emission is most sensitive to the fertilizer application rate and the soil organic matter content, but it is much less sensitive to variations in soil pH and texture, temperature, precipitation and crop residue incorporation rate under local conditions.
基金financial support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1407204,U1707602)the Yangtze Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University of Education of China+1 种基金the Innovative Research Team of Tianjin Municipal Education Commission(TD12-5004)Foundation of Tianjin Key Laboratory of Marine Resources and Chemistry(201602)。
文摘Salt lake brine is a complex salt-water system under natural environment.Although many models can express the thermodynamic properties and phase equilibrium of electrolyte aqueous solution,the multi-temperature characteristics and predictability are still the goals of model development.In this study,a comprehensive thermodynamic model system is re-established based on the eNRTL model and some improvements:(1) new expression of long-range electrostatic term with symmetrical reference state is proposed to handle the electrolyte solution covering entire concentration range;(2) the temperature dependence of the binary interaction parameters is formulated with a Gibbs Helmholtz expression containing three temperature coefficients,the liquid parameters,which associated with Gibbs energy,enthalpy,and heat capacity contribution;and(3) liquid parameters and solid species data are regressed from properties and solubility data at full temperature range.Together the activity coefficient model,property models and parameters of liquid and solid offer a comprehensive thermodynamic model system for the typical bittern of MgCl2-CaCl2-H2 O binary and ternary systems,and it shows excellent agreement with the literature data for the ternary and binary systems.The successful prediction of complete phase diagram of ternary system shows that the model has the ability to deal with high concentration and high non-idealitv system,and the ability to extrapolate the temperature.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10975127)the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education, China (Grant No. 20113402110040)
文摘We investigate the area distribution of clusters （loops） in the honeycomb O（n） loop model by means of the worm algorithm with n = 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2. At the critical point, the number of clusters, whose enclosed area is greater than A, is proportional to A-1 with a proportionality constant C. We confirm numerically that C is universal, and its value agrees well with the predictions based on the Coulomb gas method.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 40676016 and 10471039)the State KeyProgram for Basic Research of China (Grant Nos 2003CB415101-03 and 2004CB418304)+2 种基金the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No KZCX3-SW-221)in partly by E-Institutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (Grant NoN.E03004)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province,China (Grant No Y606268)
文摘The El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Oceanatmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO model is used. And based on a class of oscillator of ENSO model, the approximate solution of a corresponding problem is studied by employing the perturbation method. Firstly, an ENSO model of nonlinear time delay equation of equatorial Pacific is introduced, Secondly, by using the perturbed method, the zeroth and first order asymptotic perturbed solutions are constructed. Finally, from the comparison of the values for a figure, it is seen that the first asymptotic perturbed solution using the perturbation method has a good accuracy. And it is proved from the results that the perturbation method can be used as an analytic operation for the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model.
文摘DNDC, a rainfall-driven and process-oriented model of soil carbon and nitrogenbiogeochemistry, is applied t0 simulate the nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural ecosystem inSoutheast China. We simulated the soil N2O emission during a whole rice-wheat rotation cycle(from Nov. 1, 1996 to Oct. 31, 1997) under three different conditions, which are A) no fertilizer, B)both chemical fertilizer and manure and, C) chemical fertiliser only. The processes ofN2O emission were discussed in detail by comparing the model outputs with the results from fieldmeasurement. The comparison shows that the model is good at simulating most of theNzO emission pulses and trends. Although the simulated N2O emission fluxes are generally lessthan the measured ones, the model outputs during the dryland period, especially during the wheatreviving and maturing stages in spring, are much better than those during the paddy field period.Some sensitive experiments were made by simulating the N2O emissions in spring, when there is asmallest gap between the simulated fluxes and the measured ones. Meanwhile, the effects of someimportant regulating factors, such as the rainfall N deposition by rainfall, temperature, tillage, nitrogen fertilizer and manure application on N2O emission during this period were analyzed. Fromthe analysis, we draw a conclusion that soil moisture and fertilization are the most important regulating factors while the N2O emission is sensitive to some other factors, such as temperature, manure, tillage and the wet deposition of atmospheric nitrate.
