In the current work, we study two infectious disease models and we use nonlinear optimization and optimal control theory which helps to find strategies towards transmission control and to forecast the international sp...In the current work, we study two infectious disease models and we use nonlinear optimization and optimal control theory which helps to find strategies towards transmission control and to forecast the international spread of the infectious diseases. The relationship between epidemiology, mathematical modeling and computational tools lets us to build and test theories on the development and fighting with a disease. This study is motivated by the study of epidemiological models applied to infectious diseases in an optimal control perspective. We use the numerical methods to display the solutions of the optimal control problems to find the effect of vaccination on these models. Finally, global sensitivity analysis LHS Monte Carlo method using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) has been performed to investigate the key parameters in model equations. This present work will advance the understanding about the spread of infectious diseases and lead to novel conceptual understanding for spread of them.展开更多
Stable isotopic compositions （δ18O and 6D） have been utilized as a useful indicator for evaluating the current and historical climatic and environmental changes. Therefore, it is vital to understand the relationshi...Stable isotopic compositions （δ18O and 6D） have been utilized as a useful indicator for evaluating the current and historical climatic and environmental changes. Therefore, it is vital to understand the relationship be- tween the stable isotopic contents in lake water and the variations of lake level, particularly in Lake Qinghai, China. In this study, we analyzed the variations of isotope compositions （δ18O, 6D and d-excess） in lake water and pre- cipitation by using the samples that were collected from Lake Qinghai region during the period from 2009 to 2012. The results showed that the average isotopic contents of δ18O and 6D in lake water were higher than those in pre- cipitation, which were contrary to the variations of d-excess. The linear regression correlations between δ18O and 6D in lake water and precipitation showed that the local evaporative line （LEL） in lake water （δD=5.88δ18O-2.41） deviated significantly from the local meteoric water line （LMWL）in precipitation （δD=8.26δ18O＋16.91）, indicating that evaporative enrichment had a significant impact on isotopic contents in lake water. Moreover, we also quanti- fied the Eli ratio （evaporation-to-input ratio） in Lake Qinghai based on the lake water isotopic enrichment model derived from the Rayleigh equation. The changes of E/I ratios （ranging from 0.29 to 0.36 between 2009 and 2012） clearly revealed the shifts of lake levels in Lake Qinghai in recent years. The average E/I ratio of 0.40 reflected that water budget in Lake Qinghai was positive, and consistent with the rising lake levels and the increasing lake areas in many lakes of the Tibetan Plateau. These findings provide some evidences for studying the hydrological balance or water budget by using δ18O values of lake sedimentary materials and contribute to the reconstruction of paleo- lake water level and paleoclimate from an isotopic enrichment model in Lake Qinghai.展开更多
文摘In the current work, we study two infectious disease models and we use nonlinear optimization and optimal control theory which helps to find strategies towards transmission control and to forecast the international spread of the infectious diseases. The relationship between epidemiology, mathematical modeling and computational tools lets us to build and test theories on the development and fighting with a disease. This study is motivated by the study of epidemiological models applied to infectious diseases in an optimal control perspective. We use the numerical methods to display the solutions of the optimal control problems to find the effect of vaccination on these models. Finally, global sensitivity analysis LHS Monte Carlo method using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) has been performed to investigate the key parameters in model equations. This present work will advance the understanding about the spread of infectious diseases and lead to novel conceptual understanding for spread of them.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41130640, 91425301, 41321001, 41401057)the projects from the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University
文摘Stable isotopic compositions （δ18O and 6D） have been utilized as a useful indicator for evaluating the current and historical climatic and environmental changes. Therefore, it is vital to understand the relationship be- tween the stable isotopic contents in lake water and the variations of lake level, particularly in Lake Qinghai, China. In this study, we analyzed the variations of isotope compositions （δ18O, 6D and d-excess） in lake water and pre- cipitation by using the samples that were collected from Lake Qinghai region during the period from 2009 to 2012. The results showed that the average isotopic contents of δ18O and 6D in lake water were higher than those in pre- cipitation, which were contrary to the variations of d-excess. The linear regression correlations between δ18O and 6D in lake water and precipitation showed that the local evaporative line （LEL） in lake water （δD=5.88δ18O-2.41） deviated significantly from the local meteoric water line （LMWL）in precipitation （δD=8.26δ18O＋16.91）, indicating that evaporative enrichment had a significant impact on isotopic contents in lake water. Moreover, we also quanti- fied the Eli ratio （evaporation-to-input ratio） in Lake Qinghai based on the lake water isotopic enrichment model derived from the Rayleigh equation. The changes of E/I ratios （ranging from 0.29 to 0.36 between 2009 and 2012） clearly revealed the shifts of lake levels in Lake Qinghai in recent years. The average E/I ratio of 0.40 reflected that water budget in Lake Qinghai was positive, and consistent with the rising lake levels and the increasing lake areas in many lakes of the Tibetan Plateau. These findings provide some evidences for studying the hydrological balance or water budget by using δ18O values of lake sedimentary materials and contribute to the reconstruction of paleo- lake water level and paleoclimate from an isotopic enrichment model in Lake Qinghai.
