Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina

Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina(INCSC)in recent decades.Given the areas with large gross domestic product(GDP)in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming,understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(RX5day)and the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)is critical for adaptation planning in this region.Based on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP5-8.5)are investigated.Results indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region,while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global warming.The changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region,rather than the change of GDP.If only considering the effect of climate change on GDP,the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guangdong,and Hainan in South China,as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in Indochina.Thus,timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these regions.Moreover,from the sub-regional average viewpoint,over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

Characteristics of Upper Mantle Activity in the South China Sea Region and the Indochina Mantle Plume

Abstract According to computed results of the mantle traction field beneath the lithosphere based on satellite-modelled gravity anomalies of different degrees, it has been revealed that the three types of mantle convection on different scales existing in the South China Sea region is the key factor controlling the geodynamics. The mantle convection models on large and middle scales have been proved by natural seismic S-wave tomographic data and interpreted by using the present mantle plume concept. In consideration of other relevant geological and geophysical data, the authors put emphasis on discussing the expression form, origin and age of the Indochina mantle plume and its important effect on the conversion of organic matter and hydrocarbon accumulation in Cenozoic basins.

A new genus and three new species of miniaturized microhylid frogs from Indochina (Amphibia： Anura： Microhylidae： Asterophryinae)

We report on the discovery of a new genus of microhylid subfamily Asterophryinae from northern and eastern Indochina, containing three new species. Vietnamophryne （3en. nov. are secretive miniaturized frogs （SVL〈21 mm） with a mostly semi-fossorial lifestyle. To assess phylogenetic relationships, we studied 12S rRNA - 16S rRNA mtDNA fragments with a final alignment of 2 591 bp for 53 microhylid species. Morphological and osteological characters were analyzed using micro-CT scanning and used to describe the new genus. Results of phylogenetic analyses assigned the new genus into the mainly Australasian subfamily Asterophryinae as a sister taxon to the genus Siamophryne from southern Indochina. The three specimens collected from Gia Lai Province in central Vietnam, Cao Bang Province in northern Vietnam, and Chiang Rai Province in northern Thailand proved to be separate species, different both in morphology and genetics （genetic divergence 3.1%〈P〈5.1%）. Our work provides further evidence for the ＂out of Indo-Eurasia＂ scenario for Asterophryinae, indicating that the initial cladogenesis and differentiation of this group of frogs occurred in the Indochina Peninsula. To date, eachof the three new species of Vietnamophryne Gen. nov. is known only from a single specimen; thus, their distribution, life history, and conservation status require further study.

Review and Analysis: Evaluation of the Impacts and Consequences of Using Agricultural Herbicides as Military Chemical Weapons in Second Indochina War

The legacy of the human misery caused by the application of the herbicides including Agent Purple and Agent Orange contaminated with unknown amounts of dioxin TCDD and Agent Blue, the arsenic-based herbicide, sprayed over the jungles, rice fields, and hamlets of Vietnam is still haunting us today. Why did this happen? Could it have been prevented? Was it necessary United States military strategy? Was it an intentional decision to inflict this blight on the enemy soldiers and the Vietnamese, Cambodian, and Laotian civilians, to poison their land and cause generations of harm? Alternatively, was it an unpreventable accident in the march of military history? What patterns in the U.S. government’s thought process could be identified as the cause, which led to the decision to use these herbicides as tactical chemical weapons? If the introduction of herbicide (chemical) weapons had not been made, would the outcome of the Vietnam War and the Secret Wars in Laos and Cambodia have been any different? The objective of this treatise is to outline the role of world events and backgrounds and the role of the leaders, U.S. military, CIA, USDA, U.S. State Department, the U.S. President appointed Ambassadors to Vietnam and Laos, chemical companies, and President Diệm’s Republic of Vietnam (RVN) government and military. Their collective advice led to the decision to use herbicides as military and environmental chemical weapons in the Second Indochina War. Were the National interests achieved by U.S. military strategy in the RVN using herbicide weapons worth the long-term environmental and human health consequences in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos? Did it impact the outcome of the Second Indochina War?

20世纪30年代初法国西沙立场的演变及评析

20世纪20年代末30年代初中国陷于内忧外患境地,法国及殖民机构图谋侵占西沙群岛,着手编织所谓安南(越南)“拥有”西沙的“历史依据”,但是法国外交部法律专家对这些“依据”的法律效力问题心存疑虑。恰在此时,法国政界要人呼吁从战略上认识西沙群岛,促使了法国政府加快西沙立场的转变,而印度支那总督对西沙局势的分析及立场,对法国最终决策的形成起到了一定推动作用。法国外交部综合各方面的意见,最终确定与中国交涉西沙,不过一致认为如果“在法律手段施尽时”,那么法国依然在某种条件下“承认中国的主权”。法国西沙立场演变的主要推动力是谋求地缘利益的最大化,这是建立在漠视中国领土主权基础上,并对南海局势产生了恶劣的消极影响。

中国对日内瓦会议政策再探讨——基于国际和平统一战线的视角

中国对于日内瓦会议采取积极参加,努力促成印度支那地区恢复和平的政策。在中国的主导和倡议之下,中、苏、越三国解决了在印度支那停战问题上的三个症结:第一,越南与老挝、柬埔寨分开解决的问题;第二,越南绝对撤出老挝、柬埔寨的问题;第三,越南的军事分界线和军事集结区划定的问题。中国在日内瓦会议上的外交实践一方面避免了印度支那战争演变为朝鲜战争的局面,为中国的经济建设创造了一个良好的国际环境;另一方面,中国通过解决上述三个症结树立了自身和平的形象,取信于亚洲邻国,保持了这些国家和平中立的倾向,使美国进一步扩大反华军事同盟体系的计划落空。和平共处五项原则在日内瓦会议的进程中最终成形,国际和平统一战线政策也导源于中国在日内瓦会议成功的外交实践。

2015/2016超强厄尔尼诺期间非线性水汽平流对中南半岛4月降水异常的影响

由厄尔尼诺事件引起的极端天气气候事件对社会经济与人民生命财产安全有着重要影响。2014-2016年发生的超强厄尔尼诺事件,使得全球许多地区极端天气和气候事件频发。本文关注了中南半岛区域,利用逐月海温、降水、风场、比湿等观测和再分析资料,从环流和水汽输送异常的角度出发,探讨了超强厄尔尼诺事件背景下2016年4月中南半岛降水异常偏少的可能原因。结果表明,2016年4月,在发展强盛的西北太平洋异常反气旋和副热带高压的控制下,中南半岛上空出现异常下沉气流,不利于水汽辐合产生降水。进一步通过动力诊断分析发现,Nino3.4指数与赤道东印度洋和赤道西太平洋之间纬向海温梯度(zonal gradient of SST anomalies, GSSTA)的乘积能很好地指示此次超强厄尔尼诺事件,且中南半岛上空非线性水汽平流的调制作用是造成此区域4月降水异常偏少的重要原因。2015/2016厄尔尼诺事件期间,西北太平洋异常反气旋的南侧东风与GSSTA“引导”的异常西风水汽输送相互“冲突”,削弱了太平洋和孟加拉湾对中南半岛的水汽输送。中南半岛上空大部分水汽呈现出南少北多,东高西低的模态,水汽辐散,不利于降水的形成。2016年4月,在孟加拉湾异常反气旋和西北太平洋异常反气旋的共同作用下,中南半岛对流受到抑制,暖湿气流在异常南风的引导下,向华南输送。

印度对中南半岛国家发展援助策略的调整及其动因

进入21世纪以来,随着经济实力的增强,出于提升大国影响力的需要,印度加大了对发展中国家(以周边国家为主)的援助。中南半岛因地理上毗邻印度,获得了印度在基础设施、能力建设、军事培训、文化遗产修复等领域的发展援助。莫迪上台后,基于落实“邻国优先”、“东向行动”政策的需要,对中南半岛国家的发展援助策略进行了调整:基础设施建设转向小型化、速效项目;在能力建设领域,则将技术援助与培养“知印”“友印”人士密切结合;军事援助突破原来的培训范畴,大力向越南倾斜且开始涉足军备供应;文化遗产修复侧重于与印度教相关的文化遗产项目。莫迪政府对中南半岛国家发展援助策略的调整是印度内部与外部因素在经济、政治、文化三个层面联动的结果:一是大国在该地区的发展援助竞争日益激烈与印度自身经济实力的限度,二是印度内外地缘战略利益的推动,三是印度教民族主义兴起背景下输出文化软实力的战略需要。总体而言,莫迪政府的发展援助策略具有强烈的功利主义、利己主义与战略竞争的色彩。

中国“援越抗法”决策之探析——基于艾利森的三种决策模式

艾利森在《决策的本质》一书中提出了三种理论模型,可以基于此探讨中国“援越抗法”决策的形成过程。通过理性行为体模式的初次迭代,可以知晓中共出于防御、意识形态和革命情谊的原因而果断决定援越;以组织行为模式来考察执行过程,可以了解到源于资源和外交的限制,中国采取了以顾问团为主的有限援助方式,并且坚持不出兵原则;政府政治模型则重现了中共决策层之间有着不同是意见,最终达成“以打促和”的共识。

中美在1954年日内瓦会议前后对老挝政策对比研究

1954年的日内瓦会议是新中国第一次以五大国的身份参与国际会议,社会主义阵营和以美国为首的西方阵营在会议中就朝鲜半岛与印度支那半岛问题进行了激烈争论,并就印度支那问题达成了和平协定。而其中的老挝问题,常被当作印度支那问题中一个并不重要的部分,甚至被看作越南问题的附属问题,在一定程度上受到研究者忽视。中美在老挝问题上的不同,是僵化的对抗政策与较为灵活和平共处政策的对比,在对待弱小的国家较为灵活的和平共处政策无疑是更合适的。对于大多数弱小国家而言,在拥有选择权的情况下,往往会选择较为宽容友好的大国,而非奉行遏制与对抗的强国。中美两国在日内瓦会议期间关于老挝问题的外交交锋,是新中国外交的一次重大胜利。通过对中美双方关于老挝问题的政策进行分析研究,可以为当下中国在中美竞争和合作中如何处理与周边邻近国家的关系提供借鉴。

A Hierarchy of Geographies： A Skinnerian Model of Indochina＇s Overseas Chinese Congregations and Their Influence on French Colonialism

In Indochina, overseas Chinese were organized by dialect group into associations called congregations, which shared many of the functions of huiguan in China. The spread of overseas Chinese economic and social networks followed a Skinnerian model in which large urban congrggations wielded more political and economic authority than did smaller, rural congr@ations. By examining the impacts of French colonialism upon overseas Chinese networks within Indochina and upon overseas connections with their Chinese native places, this paper proposes that the Skinnerian model of local-system hierarchy fits quite comfortably when applied to the world of French colonial Indochina and its overseas Chinese. Furthermore, it argues that French colonialism actually reinforced the Skinnerian hierarchy of politics and markets in ways that endured long after the collapse of Imperial China.

Hiding on jagged karst pinnacles:A new microendemic genus and species of a limestone-dwelling agamid lizard(Squamata:Agamidae:Draconinae)from Khammouan Province,Laos

We describe a unique new species and genus of agamid lizard from the karstic massifs of Khammouan Province,central Laos.Laodracon carsticola Gen.et sp.nov.is an elusive medium-sized lizard(maximum snout-vent length101 mm)specifically adapted to life on limestone rocks and pinnacles.To assess the phylogenetic position of the new genus amongst other agamids,we generated DNA sequences from two mitochondrial gene fragments(16S rRNA and ND2)and three nuclear loci(BDNF,RAG1 and c-mos),with a final alignment comprising 7418 base pairs for 64 agamid species.Phylogenetic analyses unambiguously place the new genus in the mainland Asia subfamily Draconinae,where it forms a clade sister to the genus Diploderma from East Asia and the northern part of Southeast Asia.Morphologically,the new genus is distinguished from all other genera in Draconinae by possessing a notably swollen tail base with enlarged scales on its dorsal and ventral surfaces.Our work provides further evidence that limestone regions of Indochina represent unique“arks of biodiversity”and harbor numerous relict lineages.To date,Laodracon carsticola Gen.et sp.nov.is known from only two adult male specimens and its distribution seems to be restricted to a narrow limestone massif on the border of Khammouan and Bolikhamxai provinces of Laos.Additional studies are required to understand its life history,distribution,and conservation status.

跨地区文明互动下东南亚古代都城规划研究

南亚印度与东南亚诸国自古以来一直有频繁的跨地区文明互动。文章通过吸收与创新这两条文明互动路径,归纳两个地区互动的阶段与特征;然后从印度宗教宇宙观与思想家的城市规划设想两个来源,探讨古印度城市规划尤其是都城规划模式的形成。在此基础上,文章选取了东南亚中南半岛地区的三个代表性王国都城,分别分析其如何吸收印度规划模式并进行在地化创新,归纳东南亚中南半岛都城规划特征,以此揭示古代跨地区文明互动下城市规划模式的吸收与创新机制。

岩石磁组构对剩磁稳定性的制约探讨:以印支地块中生代碎屑岩和拉萨林周盆地设兴组红层为例

岩石磁组构因能提供磁性矿物晶体形状、排列方式等赋存信息而被广泛应用于判别岩石剩磁是否受到了后期构造应力的显著影响;但常规岩石磁化率各向异性(AMS)是否能够准确限定岩石剩磁的稳定性,目前尚无深入探讨.本文以印支地块Nakhon Thai盆地中生代Nam Phong、Phu Kradung和Phra Wihan组三套碎屑岩样品及拉萨地块林周盆地设兴组红层样品为例,通过岩石磁化率组构和剩磁组构的对比分析发现,尽管Nam Phong组绝大多数样品和Phu Kradung组全部样品的AMS组构显示其具有铅笔状至强劈理过渡型构造变形组构特征,但高场等温剩磁各向异性(hf-AIR)显示其高矫顽力赤铁矿所携带的特征剩磁组构仍具有典型沉积组构特征,表明其以赤铁矿为主的载磁矿物未遭受后期构造应力的显著影响,仍然能够准确记录岩石形成时期的古地球磁场方向.另一方面发现有且仅有剩磁组构才是判别碎屑沉积岩特征剩磁是否遭受了后期构造应力影响的充分必要条件.也就是说,如果岩石剩磁组构(如以赤铁矿为主要载磁矿物的岩石hf-AIR组构)指示其原始沉积组构已被构造组构显著叠加或取代,则必然说明该岩石剩磁方向已受到构造应力的作用而发生了显著偏转,因而不能直接用于构造演化和古地理重建等块体运动学研究.

中南半岛和华南地区极端降水时空特征

全球变暖使得极端降水事件的强度和频率均呈上升趋势,位于亚洲季风区的中南半岛和华南地区更易受到极端降水影响而发生洪涝灾害。本文利用逐日降水资料对1951~2015年中南半岛和华南地区湿季(5~10月)的极端降水事件进行客观分类,并对每一类极端降水事件的大尺度流型特征及年际、年代际和长期趋势特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)根据降水中心位置,中南半岛和华南地区的极端降水可客观分为华南类、中南半岛类、缅甸—云南类和华南南部—越南北部类,它们所联系的大尺度流型以中高纬波列和热带偶极子环流为主。其中,华南类的大尺度流型在对流层高层为类似于东亚—太平洋(East Asia–Pacific,简称EAP)遥相关型的“+−+”经向型波列,但中心位置较典型EAP型偏西南,中东部的负异常环流为关键系统,低层为位于低纬度地区的“+−”经向型波列。中南半岛类大尺度流型为热带偶极子异常环流,对流层低层较高层更为显著宽广。其余两类极端降水大尺度流型特征为在对流层高层受Rossby波列影响,低层主要为偏弱的热带偶极子异常环流。(2)中南半岛和华南地区极端降水的频次呈显著上升的趋势,主要来自于华南类和中南半岛类极端降水的贡献。其中,“+−+”经向型波列的频发是造成华南类极端降水增多的原因。(3)中南半岛与华南地区极端降水的空间分布具有反对称特征。

硫酸盐和黑碳气溶胶影响南海夏季风爆发的数值模拟研究

硫酸盐气溶胶(SO_4^(2-))和黑碳气溶胶(BC)可以通过散射或吸收太阳辐射改变地气系统能量收支,进而引起局地热力和云过程变化乃至大气环流的调整而影响气候系统。南海夏季风(SCSSM)作为东亚夏季风的子系统之一,与东亚大气环流和降水有着重要的相互影响。前人对SO_4^(2-)和BC对东亚副热带季风已有详细研究,但对SO_4^(2-)和BC影响南海夏季风的机制研究较少。本研究利用CESM(The Community Earth System Model)模式CAM5.1模块模拟研究了SO_4^(2-)和BC对南海—华南经向海陆热力差异、中南半岛对流、西太平洋副热带高压(西太副高)断裂以及南海夏季风爆发的影响,重点探讨了气溶胶影响SCSSM爆发的动力和热力机制。模拟试验结果表明,SO_4^(2-)和BC均有利于中南半岛对流层整层大气稳定性增强,引发了中南半岛上空的下沉气流异常,动力上抑制了中南半岛对流,分别使得春末夏初时副高带断裂时间推迟了2候和1候。同时,热力上SO_4^(2-)(BC)又推迟(提前)了春季经向海陆温差逆转时间。综合而言,SO_4^(2-)一致的动力和热力效应使得SCSSM爆发推迟了1候。而BC对SCSSM爆发基本无影响,可能是由于BC相反的动力和热力效应。

BP神经网络滑动窗口算法在活跃火时空预测模型研究与实现

通过C#编程语言与ArcEngine开发引擎编写一种BP神经网络的滑动窗口算法,实现活跃火频次预测。对中南半岛五国活跃火进行建模,预测2020年活跃火频次并与实际对比。经过多次迭代实验,结果表明,模型程序在误差小于0.8或学习训练次数大于8000作为单次结束条件时具有优良的预测效果。

中国-中南半岛经济走廊建设中技术转移有效性影响因素研究

自中国中南半岛经济走廊建设以来,技术转移逐渐成为中国与中南半岛沿线国家合作发展的重点问题。本文以技术转移的影响因素为出发点,建立以中国为主体,中南半岛国家为受体的技术转移研究框架。采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的模糊集定性比较分析方法,找到技术转移有效性的关键影响因素。

Microfacies and palaeoenvironments of lateCisuralian and Guadalupian(Early to MiddlePermian)alatoconchid-bearing limestone inLoei fold belt,Indochina Terrane

This study presents the first record of Early Permian alatoconchid bivalves from Thailand,theErawan section,in the north of Loei fold belt with prolific fusulines in association with gastropods,and brachiopods.Fusuline taxa are dominated by Pseudofusulina sp.with Darvasites sp.,Staffella cf.labanalensis,Staffella sp.,Nankinella sp.,Neofusulinella sp.,Schubertella sp.,Pamirina darvasica,Pseudoendothyra sp.and others,indicating an Artinskian age.Fusuline wackestone with common,well-preserved smaller foraminifers,Pseudovermiporella sp.and ostracods indicates a restricted lagoon environment with low to moderate water circulation.These fossils,along with well-preserved,articulated alatoconchids in life-position,suggest the autochthonous nature of the deposits in an intertidal environment.In the central part of the fold belt,the Pak Chong section exhibits intervals of alatoconchid biostromes andcoquinites.Carbonate build-ups of the alatoconchid biostromes with gregarious bivalves,in life-positionembedded in a micritic wackestone matrix,suggest their preferred life habit and environment.The bivalvecoquinites containing packed bivalve shells and fragments,however,indicate a high-energy event.This rockfabric along with common fusuline storm sheets suggests occasional storm events in a restricted,with moderate water circulation to open lagoon environment.Fusulines are predominated by staffellids and othersincluding Staffella sphaerica,Staffella sp.,Sphaerulina croatica,Pisolina subsphaerica,Nankinella sp.,Neoschwagerina simplex,Presumatrina sp.,Afghanella sp.and others,indicating a Wordian(Middle Permian)age.In the southern portion of the fold belt along the Thai-Cambodian border,the Khao Taa Ngog sectioncontains limestone with alatoconchid shells with massive rugose corals which formed local carbonate build-upsin high-energy open platform environments.Poorly-sorted bioclasts with common fusuline tests,shell fragments and coated grains suggest an open marine,lagoon,back reef environment.The occurrence of a fusulineassemblage including Neoschwagerina sp.,Yabeina sp.,Lepidolina sp.,Codonofusiella sp.,Verbeekina verbeeki and Chusenella sp.indicates the Capitanian(late Middle Permian)age.

玉溪—临沧剖面宽角地震探测——红河断裂带及滇南地壳结构研究

云南位于南北地震带南段,地震活动具有频度高、强度大的特点,中小地震几乎遍及云南南部,是中国大陆内部地震活动最强的地区之一.滇南地区跨越多个重要的地质构造单元和多条地震带,其中红河断裂带是跨越该地区的一条大型的走滑断裂带,作为印支地块和华南地块两大地块的分界断裂,对人们认识板块相互运动及其深部动力学背景具有重要意义.中国地震局于2010年启动了"中国地震科学台阵探测——南北地震带南段"项目,在云南省中西部跨越红河断裂带布设一条近东西向的深地震宽角反射/折射探测剖面,本文利用该东西向深地震宽角反射/折射剖面来研究红河断裂带及滇南地区详细的地壳结构及其孕震背景.研究结果表明:沿测线地壳结构呈西薄东厚的特征,以红河断裂带为界,断裂带以西地壳较薄,约34km,以东地壳加厚至44km左右;红河断裂带两侧速度结构具有明显的差异,断裂带西侧速度较低,东侧速度明显偏高.由震相特征及获取的地壳结构可以看出,红河断裂带两侧由浅至深速度结构的异常特征说明该古缝合带两侧块体地壳结构岩性的巨大差异性.