Early studies suggested that the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw(AIS) features multidecadal variation. In this study, the multidecadal modulation of the AIS and associated surface climate by the Atlantic Multidecadal O...Early studies suggested that the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw(AIS) features multidecadal variation. In this study, the multidecadal modulation of the AIS and associated surface climate by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) during late winter(February–March) is explored with observational data. It is shown that, in the cold phase of the AMO(AMO|-),a clear AIS is established, while this is not the case in the warm phase of the AMO(AMO|+). The surface climate over Eurasia is significantly influenced by the AMO’s modulation of the Aleutian low(AL). For example, the weak AL in AMO|-displays warmer surface temperatures over the entire Far East and along the Russian Arctic coast and into Northern Europe,but only over the Russian Far East in AMO|+. Similarly, precipitation decreases over central Europe with the weak AL in AMO|-, but decreases over northern Europe and increases over southern Europe in AMO|+.The mechanism underlying the influence of AMO|-on the AIS can be described as follows: AMO|-weakens the upward component of the Eliassen–Palm flux along the polar waveguide by reducing atmospheric blocking occurrence over the Euro–Atlantic sector, and hence drives an enhanced stratospheric polar vortex. With the intensified polar night jet, the wave trains originating over the central North Pacific can propagate horizontally through North America and extend into the North Atlantic, favoring an eastward-extended Pacific–North America–Atlantic pattern, and resulting in a significant AIS at the surface during late winter.展开更多
We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter(December–March; DJFM), based on a singular value decompos...We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter(December–March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition(SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure(SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals–Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell,where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic.In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern.Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.展开更多
This paper analyzes interannual variations of the blocking high over the Ural Mountains in the boreal winter and their association with the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation(AO/NAO).In January,the relati...This paper analyzes interannual variations of the blocking high over the Ural Mountains in the boreal winter and their association with the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation(AO/NAO).In January,the relationship between the Ural blocking high(UR) and the AO index is statistically significant.The UR tends to occur more frequently and with greater strength during negative AO periods.Some strong URs also occur during positive AO phases(positive UR-AO events),as in January 2008.This paper discusses the characteristics of atmospheric circulation in the cases of positive UR-AO events and contrast cases(negative UR-AO events).The eastward extending of the Icelandic Low(IL) center and the associated NAO dipole anomaly pattern in the upstream region may play a more important role for the UR-AO events.When the center of the IL shifts eastward to 30 W,the amplitude of zonal wavenumber 2(wavenumber 3) is intensified in the positive(negative) UR-AO events,which favors positive(negative) height anomalies over the Urals.Further analyses indicate that the intensified zonal wind in high latitudes and weakened zonal wind in midlatitudes over the North Atlantic Ocean render the eastward shift of the IL and the NAO dipole anomaly pattern.The Ural blocking in January 2008 bears similar characteristics to the positive UR-AO events.展开更多
基金supported by the Research Council of Norway(Grant Nos.EPOCASA#229774/E10 and SNOWGLACE#244166)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41605059)the Young Talent Support Plan launched by the China Association for Science and Technology(Grant No.2016QNRC001)
文摘Early studies suggested that the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw(AIS) features multidecadal variation. In this study, the multidecadal modulation of the AIS and associated surface climate by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) during late winter(February–March) is explored with observational data. It is shown that, in the cold phase of the AMO(AMO|-),a clear AIS is established, while this is not the case in the warm phase of the AMO(AMO|+). The surface climate over Eurasia is significantly influenced by the AMO’s modulation of the Aleutian low(AL). For example, the weak AL in AMO|-displays warmer surface temperatures over the entire Far East and along the Russian Arctic coast and into Northern Europe,but only over the Russian Far East in AMO|+. Similarly, precipitation decreases over central Europe with the weak AL in AMO|-, but decreases over northern Europe and increases over southern Europe in AMO|+.The mechanism underlying the influence of AMO|-on the AIS can be described as follows: AMO|-weakens the upward component of the Eliassen–Palm flux along the polar waveguide by reducing atmospheric blocking occurrence over the Euro–Atlantic sector, and hence drives an enhanced stratospheric polar vortex. With the intensified polar night jet, the wave trains originating over the central North Pacific can propagate horizontally through North America and extend into the North Atlantic, favoring an eastward-extended Pacific–North America–Atlantic pattern, and resulting in a significant AIS at the surface during late winter.
基金The work of HC,NK and NO was supported by grants from the European Research Council(ERC)project(Grant No.648982)Nord Forsk under the GREENICE(Grant No.61841)+3 种基金ARCPATH(Grant No.76654)projectsthe work of WZ was supported by grants from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,China(CityU 11335316 and 11305715)benefit from high performance computing grants(NOTUR2,project no.NN 9390KNORSTORE,NS9064K)
文摘We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter(December–March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition(SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure(SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals–Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell,where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic.In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern.Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201106015)National Science and Technology Support Program of China (2009BAC51B02)+1 种基金National Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2009CB421401)National Natural Science Foundation of China (40975022)
文摘This paper analyzes interannual variations of the blocking high over the Ural Mountains in the boreal winter and their association with the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation(AO/NAO).In January,the relationship between the Ural blocking high(UR) and the AO index is statistically significant.The UR tends to occur more frequently and with greater strength during negative AO periods.Some strong URs also occur during positive AO phases(positive UR-AO events),as in January 2008.This paper discusses the characteristics of atmospheric circulation in the cases of positive UR-AO events and contrast cases(negative UR-AO events).The eastward extending of the Icelandic Low(IL) center and the associated NAO dipole anomaly pattern in the upstream region may play a more important role for the UR-AO events.When the center of the IL shifts eastward to 30 W,the amplitude of zonal wavenumber 2(wavenumber 3) is intensified in the positive(negative) UR-AO events,which favors positive(negative) height anomalies over the Urals.Further analyses indicate that the intensified zonal wind in high latitudes and weakened zonal wind in midlatitudes over the North Atlantic Ocean render the eastward shift of the IL and the NAO dipole anomaly pattern.The Ural blocking in January 2008 bears similar characteristics to the positive UR-AO events.