The dynamics of infectious disease in a population critically involves both within-host pathogen replication and between host pathogen transmission.While modeling efforts have recently explored how within-host dynamic...The dynamics of infectious disease in a population critically involves both within-host pathogen replication and between host pathogen transmission.While modeling efforts have recently explored how within-host dynamics contribute to shaping population transmission,fewer have explored how ongoing circulation of an epidemic infectious disease can impact within-host immunological dynamics.We present a simple,influenza-inspired model that explores the potential for re-exposure during a single,ongoing outbreak to shape individual immune response and epidemiological potential in non-trivial ways.We show how even a simplified system can exhibit complex ongoing dy-namics and sensitive thresholds in behavior.We also find epidemiological stochasticity likely plays a critical role in reinfection or in the maintenance of individual immunological protection over time.展开更多
The development of multiscale models of infectious disease systems is a scientific endeavour whose progress depends on advances on three main frontiers:(a)the conceptual framework frontier,(b)the mathematical technolo...The development of multiscale models of infectious disease systems is a scientific endeavour whose progress depends on advances on three main frontiers:(a)the conceptual framework frontier,(b)the mathematical technology or technical frontier,and(c)the scientific applications frontier.The objective of this primer is to introduce foundational concepts in multiscale modelling of infectious disease systems focused on these three main frontiers.On the conceptual framework frontier we propose a three-level hierarchical framework as a foundational idea which enables the discussion of the structure of multiscale models of infectious disease systems in a general way.On the scientific applications frontier we suggest ways in which the different structures of multiscale models can serve as infrastructure to provide new knowledge on the control,elimination and even eradication of infectious disease systems,while on the mathematical technology or technical frontier we present some challenges that modelers face in developing appropriate multiscale models of infectious disease systems.We anticipate that the foundational concepts presented in this primer will be central in articulating an integrated and more refined disease control theory based on multiscale modelling-the all-encompassing quantitative representation of an infectious disease system.展开更多
基金supported in part by the Mathematics and Climate Research Network and AIM through NSF award DMS-1722578the Clare Boothe Luce Program through Boston University,with additional support from Bowdoin College.
文摘The dynamics of infectious disease in a population critically involves both within-host pathogen replication and between host pathogen transmission.While modeling efforts have recently explored how within-host dynamics contribute to shaping population transmission,fewer have explored how ongoing circulation of an epidemic infectious disease can impact within-host immunological dynamics.We present a simple,influenza-inspired model that explores the potential for re-exposure during a single,ongoing outbreak to shape individual immune response and epidemiological potential in non-trivial ways.We show how even a simplified system can exhibit complex ongoing dy-namics and sensitive thresholds in behavior.We also find epidemiological stochasticity likely plays a critical role in reinfection or in the maintenance of individual immunological protection over time.
基金The author acknowledges with thanks financial support from NRF,South Africa Grant No.IPRR(UID 81235).
文摘The development of multiscale models of infectious disease systems is a scientific endeavour whose progress depends on advances on three main frontiers:(a)the conceptual framework frontier,(b)the mathematical technology or technical frontier,and(c)the scientific applications frontier.The objective of this primer is to introduce foundational concepts in multiscale modelling of infectious disease systems focused on these three main frontiers.On the conceptual framework frontier we propose a three-level hierarchical framework as a foundational idea which enables the discussion of the structure of multiscale models of infectious disease systems in a general way.On the scientific applications frontier we suggest ways in which the different structures of multiscale models can serve as infrastructure to provide new knowledge on the control,elimination and even eradication of infectious disease systems,while on the mathematical technology or technical frontier we present some challenges that modelers face in developing appropriate multiscale models of infectious disease systems.We anticipate that the foundational concepts presented in this primer will be central in articulating an integrated and more refined disease control theory based on multiscale modelling-the all-encompassing quantitative representation of an infectious disease system.
