Global Epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease and the Importation Risk into China: An Assessment Based on the Risk Matrix Method

Objective To analyze the global epidemic status of the Ebola virus disease(EVD) and assess the importation risk into China.Methods Data from World Health Organization reports were used. We described the global epidemic status of EVD from 1976–2021, and assessed and ranked the importation risk of EVD from the diseaseoutbreaking countries into China using the risk matrix and Borda count methods, respectively.Results From 1976–2021, EVD mainly occurred in western and central Africa, with the highest cumulative number of cases(14,124 cases) in Sierra Leone, and the highest cumulative fatality rate(85%) in the Congo. Outbreaks of EVD have occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea since 2018. The importation risk into China varies across countries with outbreaks of disease.The Democratic Republic of the Congo had an extremely high risk(23 Borda points), followed by Guinea and Liberia. Countries with a moderate importation risk were Nigeria, Uganda, Congo, Sierra Leone,Mali, and Gabon, while countries with a low importation risk included Sudan, Senegal, and Co te d’Ivoire.Conclusion China is under the risk of EVD importation with the globalization and severe epidemic status of EVD. Key attention need to be paid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, and Liberia. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent and prepare in advance for importation risk in China.

2022 Multiple-country Monkeypox Outbreak and Its Importation Risk into China:An Assessment Based on the Risk Matrix Method

Objective To analyze the 2022 multiple-country monkeypox outbreak and assess its importation risk into China.Methods Data was from United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.We described the global epidemic and calculated concentration index to measure economic-related inequality.Importation risk into China was evaluated and ranked by using risk matrix method and Borda count method,respectively.Results As of July 29,2022,of 79 countries or territories,39(49.37%,39/79),17(21.52%,17/79),6(7.59%,6/79),12(15.19%,12/79),and 5(6.33%,5/79)country or territories identified cases<10,10-,51-,101-,and>1,000.There were economic-related health disparities exist in the distribution of cases(the concentration index=0.42,P=0.027),and the inequality disadvantageous to the rich(pro-poor).There were 12(15.38%,12/78),15(19.23%,15/78),6(7.69%,6/78),and 45(57.69%,45/78)countries or territories with extremely high,high,moderate,and low importation risk.United States and France ranked first with the highest Borda points of 156,and counts of zero.Conclusion Of 78 countries or territories,the key attention need be paid to the United States and France,relatively.As the epidemic progresses,preparing prevention and control measures to further reduce importation risk was crucial.

Technology Importation and Domestic Technology Acquisition in China from the Perspective of Innovation

Foreign and domestic technologies play different roles in a country's innovation. In recent years, Chinese firms have spent less on importing foreign technology and more on acquiring domestic technology. Based on the panel data model, state space model(SSM) and the Bayesian vector autoregressive model, this paper finds that the purchase of domestic technology plays a critical role in the innovation of high-tech firms with an elasticity coefficient higher than that of technology importation before 2010. China's high-tech firms can effectively absorb purchased domestic technology, which also brings about an increase in their independent R&D input and contributes more to innovation output than imported technology. Performance of technology importation is lackluster but shows an improving trend. Technology importation is not correlated with innovation output and has a substitutive effect with independent R&D input. China is yet to enhance its absorption of imported technology. Elasticity coefficient of technology importation turned positive in 2007 and increased year by year. China should promote synergy between technology importation and domestic technology acquisition.

Univariate Time-Series Analysis of Second-Hand Car Importation in Zambia

Zambia largely depends on the international second-hand car (SHC) market for their motor vehicle supply. The importation of Second hand Cars in Zambia presents a time series problem. The data used in this paper is monthly data on SHC importation from 1st January, 2014 to 31st December, 2016. Data was analyzed using Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The results showed that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) was the best fit for the SHC importation since its errors were smaller than those of the SES, DES and TES. The four error measures used were Root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean percentage error (MPE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The forecasts were also produced using the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model for the next 18 months from January 2017. Although there is percentage increase of 90.6% from November 2015 to December 2016, the SHC importation generally is on the decrease in Zambia with percentage change of 59.5% from January 2014 to December 2016. The forecasts also show a gradual percentage decrease of 1.12% by June 2018. These results are more useful to policy and decision makers of Government departments such as Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) and Road Development Agency (RDA) in a bid to plan and execute their duties effectively.

Dengue outbreaks in Taiwan, 1998-2017: Importation, serotype and temporal pattern

Objective: To ascertain the role of imported cases and serotypes on dengue outbreaks in Taiwan which have been sporadic yet highly volatile during the past two decades, exhibiting record-breaking magnitude in recent years. Methods: Confirmed case and serotype data from Taiwan Centers for Disease Control during 1998-2017 were fully examined, with fitting of weekly and daily case data of each city/county to a mathematical model to pinpoint the waves of cases and their locations. Moreover, we quantify the timing of turning point and transmission potential of each wave and determine its circulating serotype, to ascertain any pattern or connection between the variations in circulating serotypes and the magnitude/transmissibility of outbreak. Results: While the number of imported case increased steadily during past two decades, the yearly number of indigenous cases fluctuated wildly. Moreover, while yearly percentages of serotypes for imported cases remains steady, that of indigenous cases does not exhibit any clear pattern. There was at least one wave of reported cases somewhere in Taiwan every year from 1998 to 2015, except in 2016-2017. The effective reproduction number R for all waves in all locations ranged from 1.14 to 2.87, with the exception of two Tainan waves, in 2010(3.95) and 2015(6.84). Four major outbreaks of over 2000 cases reveal circulation of one dominant serotype. Conclusions: Correlation between imported cases and indigenous outbreak prove to be difficult to ascertain, even with the availability of serotype data. However, although there had been occasional co-circulation of serotypes in one location, and for some years with different serotypes circulating in different locations, all major outbreaks of over 2 000 cases during the past two decades are due to circulation of mainly a single serotype, perhaps indicating greater transmission potential with one dominating serotype.

Data-driven casting defect prediction model for sand casting based on random forest classification algorithm

The complex sand-casting process combined with the interactions between process parameters makes it difficult to control the casting quality,resulting in a high scrap rate.A strategy based on a data-driven model was proposed to reduce casting defects and improve production efficiency,which includes the random forest(RF)classification model,the feature importance analysis,and the process parameters optimization with Monte Carlo simulation.The collected data includes four types of defects and corresponding process parameters were used to construct the RF model.Classification results show a recall rate above 90% for all categories.The Gini Index was used to assess the importance of the process parameters in the formation of various defects in the RF model.Finally,the classification model was applied to different production conditions for quality prediction.In the case of process parameters optimization for gas porosity defects,this model serves as an experimental process in the Monte Carlo method to estimate a better temperature distribution.The prediction model,when applied to the factory,greatly improved the efficiency of defect detection.Results show that the scrap rate decreased from 10.16% to 6.68%.

Identification of Important FPGA Modules Based on Complex Network

The globalization of hardware designs and supply chains,as well as the integration of third-party intellectual property(IP)cores,has led to an increased focus from malicious attackers on computing hardware.However,existing defense or detection approaches often require additional circuitry to perform security verification,and are thus constrained by time and resource limitations.Considering the scale of actual engineering tasks and tight project schedules,it is usually difficult to implement designs for all modules in field programmable gate array(FPGA)circuits.Some studies have pointed out that the failure of key modules tends to cause greater damage to the network.Therefore,under limited conditions,priority protection designs need to be made on key modules to improve protection efficiency.We have conducted research on FPGA designs including single FPGA systems and multi-FPGA systems,to identify key modules in FPGA systems.For the single FPGA designs,considering the topological structure,network characteristics,and directionality of FPGA designs,we propose a node importance evaluationmethod based on the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)method.Then,for the multi-FPGA designs,considering the influence of nodes in intra-layer and inter-layers,they are constructed into the interdependent network,and we propose a method based on connection strength to identify the important modules.Finally,we conduct empirical research using actual FPGA designs as examples.The results indicate that compared to other traditional indexes,node importance indexes proposed for different designs can better characterize the importance of nodes.

Development of endemicity and conservation importance indices for tropical forests and the floral diversity assessment of Mt.Natoo in Benguet,Philippines

The scientific community faces the challenge of measuring progress toward biodiversity targets and indices have been traditionally used.However,recent inventories in secondary tropical mountain forests using traditional biodiversity indices have yielded results that are indistinct with primary ones.This shows the need to develop complementary indices that goes beyond species count but integrates the distribution and conservation status of the species.This study developed endemicity and conservation importance index for tropical forest that incorporated the distribution and conservation status of the species.These indices were applied to Mt.Natoo,a remnant primary mossy forest in Buguias,Benguet,Philippines,that resulted to endemicity index of 81.07 and conservation importance index of 42.90.Comparing these with secondary forest sites with comparable Shannon-Wiener,Simpson,Evenness and Margalef’s indices,our endemicity and conservation indices clearly differentiates primary forest(our study site)with higher values from secondary forests with much lower values.Thus,we are proposing these indices for a direct but scientifically-informed identification of specific sites for conservation and protection in tropical forests.Additionally,our study documented a total of 168 vascular plant species(79 endemic and 12 locally threatened species)in Mt.Nato-o.Majority are of tropical elements for both generic and species levels with some temperate elements that could be attributed to the site's high elevation and semi-temperate climate.These are important baseline information for conservation plans and monitoring of tropical mossy forests.

High rate of clinically relevant improvement following anatomical total shoulder arthroplasty for glenohumeral osteoarthritis

BACKGROUND The minimal clinically important difference(MCID)is defined as the smallest meaningful change in a health domain that a patient would identify as important.Thus,an improvement that exceeds the MCID can be used to define a successful treatment for the individual patient.AIM To quantify the rate of clinical improvement following anatomical total shoulder arthroplasty for glenohumeral osteoarthritis.METHODS Patients were treated with the Global Unite total shoulder platform arthroplasty between March 2017 and February 2019 at Herlev and Gentofte Hospital,Denmark.The patients were evaluated preoperatively and 3 months,6 months,12 months,and 24 months postoperatively using the Western Ontario Osteoarthritis of the Shoulder index(WOOS),Oxford Shoulder Score(OSS)and Constant-Murley Score(CMS).The rate of clinically relevant improvement was defined as the proportion of patients who had an improvement 24 months postoperatively that exceeded the MCID.Based on previous literature,MCID for WOOS,OSS,and CMS were defined as 12.3,4.3,and 12.8 respectively.RESULTS Forty-nine patients with a Global Unite total shoulder platform arthroplasty were included for the final analysis.Mean age at the time of surgery was 66 years(range 49.0-79.0,SD:8.3)and 65%were women.One patient was revised within the two years follow-up.The mean improvement from the preoperative assessment to the two-year follow-up was 46.1 points[95%confidence interval(95%CI):39.7-53.3,P<0.005]for WOOS,18.2 points(95%CI:15.5-21.0,P<0.005)for OSS and 37.8 points(95%CI:31.5-44.0,P<0.005)for CMS.Two years postoperatively,41 patients(87%)had an improvement in WOOS that exceeded the MCID,45 patients(94%)had an improvement in OSS that exceeded the MCID,and 42 patients(88%)had an improvement in CMS that exceeded the MCID.CONCLUSION Based on three shoulder-specific outcome measures we find that approximately 90%of patients has a clinically relevant improvement.This is a clear message when informing patients about their prognosis.

Overview of the Development of the Soybean Industry in the United States,Brazil and Argentina and Its Lessons for the Development of the Soybean Industry in China

Since the 1950s,China has gradually moved away from complete self-sufficiency in terms of soybeans to a high dependence on imports,and its annual import of soybeans accounts for about 60%of the global soybean trade.Brazil,the United States and Argentina have seen rapid growth in the soybean industry in just a few decades,and now account for about 80%of the world’s annual production.On the whole,in addition to the unique resource endowment and the continuous expansion of international market demand,the strong support of the U.S.government.

Cross-border E-commerce Accelerates Diversely Abroad

“Strength”and“vitality”are the comments that people in the industry have used to describe China’s cross-border e-commerce in 2023,which has been proven by the latest statistics.According to the General Administration of Customs,in 2023,the total volume of imports and exports was RMB 2.38 trillion,up by 15.6%.The volume of exports was RMB 1.83 billion,up by 19.6%,and the volume of imports was RMB 548.3 billion,up by 3.9%.

Australian Wine is Coming Back to the Chinese Table

China's Ministry of Commerce announced the termination of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on imports of wine originating in Australia from March 29.This means that Australian wine is finally returning to the Chinese market after three years of dormancy.In the past three years,the market has changed rapidly and China's local wine sector has also grown.What changes can we expect the return of Australian wine to bring to the market?

Community Perception of Riparian Corridors Ecosystem Services and Implications for Environmental Education in Upper Oueme Catchment in Benin, West Africa

The assessment of the local community perception of the value of riparian corridors is relevant to understand their attitude towards the conservation of such ecosystem. We conducted a semi-structured survey on the perception and importance attributed to the ecosystem services (ESs) provided by riparian corridors in 368 households across 70 villages located in a buffer zone of 5 km of servitude around the permanent rivers of the Upper Oueme watershed in Benin. We found that local communities easily reported provisioning and cultural ESs than regulating and supporting ones, indicating their misunderstanding of the main role of riparian corridor. Moreover, the supply of cropping areas was perceived as the most important ES. Educated respondents and high-income households had more knowledge of regulating ESs and supporting ESs, respectively. Overall, the highly perceived importance of the provision of cropping areas indicates a potential risk of agricultural encroachment of riparian corridors. We suggest the consideration of the current local perception of riparian corridor’s role in designing a sound environmental education aiming at the change of local population’s perception. This perception shift will promote a sustainable management of the riparian corridors.

An analysis of agarwood trade patterns,historical perspectives,and species identification challenges:repercussions for importing nations

Background:Agarwood,primarily derived from the Aquilaria and Gyrinops genera,holds significant economic importance.However,there is a lack of comprehensive investigations providing guidance to importing nations regarding cultivation quantities and expected yields of Agarwood from distinct species.This study aims to address this gap by exploring the historical context and trade evolution of Agarwood,highlighting its global importance,and the challenges associated with securing accurate species information.Method:On-site visits to Agarwood cultivation sites were conducted to gain a nuanced understanding of Aquilaria species and their cultivation requirements.Additionally,a thorough analysis of global export and import data for Agarwood products over the last decade was undertaken.Results:China Mainland emerged as the leading exporter of Agarwood,averaging an annual export value of USD 1 million.India’s substantial exports challenge the prevailing notion of limited Agarwood production within its borders.Hong Kong and Singapore are pivotal distribution hubs,while Hong Kong and Taipei feature prominently as import destinations.Our analysis uncovers anomalies in the representation of Agarwood producers from 2001 to 2008,suggesting potential misclassification of Aquilaria Agarwood as Gyrinops in global export information.These findings underscore the urgency of investigating classification and reporting practices in the Agarwood trade.Furthermore,A.filaria emerges as a notable source,while A.malaccensis is decline in prominence.Conclusion:This study provides crucial insights for policymakers,stakeholders,and industry players seeking to make informed decisions in the Agarwood trade landscape.The results highlight the need for accurate species identification,classification,and reporting practices to ensure sustainable cultivation and trade of Agarwood.

Risk of COVID-19 variant importation-How useful are travel control measures?

We consider models for the importation of a new variant COVID-19 strain in a location already seeing propagation of a resident variant.By distinguishing contaminations generated by imported cases from those originating in the community,we are able to evaluate the contribution of importations to the dynamics of the disease in a community.We find that after an initial seeding,the role of importations becomes marginal compared to that of community-based propagation.We also evaluate the role of two travel control measures,quarantine and travel interruptions.We conclude that quarantine is an efficacious way of lowering importation rates,while travel interruptions have the potential to delay the consequences of importations but need to be applied within a very tight time window following the initial emergence of the variant.

The Importance of Breathing Training in Folk Dance Teaching

The importance of breathing training in dance teaching is reflected in the two aspects of enhancing the quality of dance movements and sublimating the connotation of dance movements.For example,high-quality breathing can help performers complete the dance movements and improve the coordination of the movements;at the same time,the unique body rhythm formed by breathing can strengthen the visual effect of the performance and convey its spirit and soul to the audience.This requires folk dance teachers to carry out relevant training and teaching activities based on the categories and skills of dance breathing,such as changing students’ideological cognition,developing periodic breathing training courses,providing personalized guidance to students,and allowing students to adjust their learning and practice methods in the evaluation.

The Customer Requirements Analysis Method of Engineering Products Based on Multiple Preference Information

To effectively evaluate the fuzziness of the market environment in product planning,a customer requirements analysis method based on multiple preference information is proposed.Firstly,decision-makers use a preferred information form to evaluate the importance of each customer requirement.Secondly,a transfer function is employed to unify various forms of preference information into a fuzzy complementary judgment matrix.The ranking vector is then calculated using row and normalization methods,and the initial importance of customer requirements is obtained by aggregating the weights of decision members.Finally,the correction coefficients of initial importance and each demand are synthesized,and the importance of customer requirements is determined through normalization.The development example of the PE jaw crusher demonstrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

Exploration of Human Resource Management in Enterprise Business Management

Human resource management is an integral part of enterprise operation and management,contributing to the avoidance of financial risks,alleviation of performance problems,promotion of organizational development,enhancement of operational efficiency,and fostering sustainable enterprise development.Enterprise management should prioritize attention to human resource management by establishing an independent human resource management department and strategically planning human resource management tasks.This involves building an information management platform,developing a professional human resource management model to mitigate market risks,actively recruiting human resource management talents to form a competent team,and enhancing the human resource management and supervision system.These measures are essential for comprehensively improving the level of enterprise operation and management.

Surveillance and Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Variant Importation—China,January–June 2022

Introduction:The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)Omicron variant is the dominant circulating strain worldwide.To assess the importation of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the mainland of China during the Omicron epidemic,the genomic surveillance data of SARS-CoV-2 from imported coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)cases in the mainland of China during the first half of 2022 were analyzed.Methods:Sequences submitted from January to July 2022,with a collection date before June 30,2022,were incorporated.The proportions of SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as the relationships between the origin and destination of each Omicron imported case were analyzed.Results:4,946 sequences of imported cases were submitted from 27 provincial-level administrative divisions(PLADs),and the median submission interval was within 1 month after collection.In 3,851 Omicron sequences with good quality,1 recombinant(XU)and 4 subvariants under monitoring(BA.4,BA.5,BA.2.12.1,and BA.2.13)were recorded,and 3 of them(BA.4,BA.5,and BA.2.12.1)caused local transmissions in the mainland of China later than that recorded in the surveillance.Omicron subvariants dominated in the first half of 2022 and shifted from BA.1 to BA.2 then to BA.4 and BA.5.The percentage of BA.2 in the imported SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data was far higher than that in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data(GISAID).The imported cases from Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,China,accounted for 32.30%of Omicron cases sampled,and 98.71%of them were BA.2.Conclusions:The Omicron variant showed the intra-Omicron evolution in the first half of 2022,and all of the Omicron subvariants were introduced into the mainland of China multiple times from multiple different locations.

基于博弈论组合赋权和云模型的高校科技成果转化绩效评价研究

高校科技成果转化是我国高质量发展的重要新引擎,对其进行绩效评价的重要性日益凸显。面对评价过程中出现的不确定信息,引入云模型,提出了一种基于博弈论组合赋权和云模型的高校科技成果转化绩效评价模型,并采用IKLCM(improved Kullback-Leibler divergence based on cloud model)法计算云相似度距离,得出评价结果。通过对西南地区5个省份的高校进行实证分析,结果表明,该模型综合考虑主客观因素,组合权重科学合理,绩效云模型评价能得到准确可靠的评价结果。