Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield and water conservation in the Bosten Lake Basin based on the PLUS-InVEST model

To comprehensively evaluate the alterations in water ecosystem service functions within arid watersheds,this study focused on the Bosten Lake Basin,which is situated in the arid region of Northwest China.The research was based on land use/land cover(LULC),natural,socioeconomic,and accessibility data,utilizing the Patch-level Land Use Simulation(PLUS)and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)models to dynamically assess LULC change and associated variations in water yield and water conservation.The analyses included the evaluation of contribution indices of various land use types and the investigation of driving factors that influence water yield and water conservation.The results showed that the change of LULC in the Bosten Lake Basin from 2000 to 2020 showed a trend of increasing in cultivated land and construction land,and decreasing in grassland,forest,and unused land.The unused land of all the three predicted scenarios of 2030(S1,a natural development scenario;S2,an ecological protection scenario;and S3,a cultivated land protection scenario)showed a decreasing trend.The scenarios S1 and S3 showed a trend of decreasing in grassland and increasing in cultivated land;while the scenario S2 showed a trend of decreasing in cultivated land and increasing in grassland.The water yield of the Bosten Lake Basin exhibited an initial decline followed by a slight increase from 2000 to 2020.The areas with higher water yield values were primarily located in the northern section of the basin,which is characterized by higher altitude.Water conservation demonstrated a pattern of initial decrease followed by stabilization,with the northeastern region demonstrating higher water conservation values.In the projected LULC scenarios of 2030,the estimated water yield under scenarios S1 and S3 was marginally greater than that under scenario S2;while the level of water conservation across all three scenarios remained rather consistent.The results showed that Hejing County is an important water conservation function zone,and the eastern part of the Xiaoyouledusi Basin is particularly important and should be protected.The findings of this study offer a scientific foundation for advancing sustainable development in arid watersheds and facilitating efficient water resource management.

Evaluation of the water conservation function in the Ili River Delta of Central Asia based on the InVEST model

The Ili River Delta(IRD)is an ecological security barrier for the Lake Balkhash and an important water conservation area in Central Asia.In this study,we selected the IRD as a typical research area,and simulated the water yield and water conservation from 1975 to 2020 using the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.We further analyzed the temporal and spatial variations in the water yield and water conservation in the IRD from 1975 to 2020,and investigated the main driving factors(precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,land use/land cover change,and inflow from the Ili River)of the water conservation variation based on the linear regression,piecewise linear regression,and Pearson's correlation coefficient analyses.The results indicated that from 1975 to 2020,the water yield and water conservation in the IRD showed a decreasing trend,and the spatial distribution pattern was"high in the east and low in the west";overall,the water conservation of all land use types decreased slightly.The water conservation volume of grassland was the most reduced,although the area of grassland increased owing to the increased inflow from the Ili River.At the same time,the increased inflow has led to the expansion of wetland areas,the improvement of vegetation growth,and the increase of regional evapotranspiration,thus resulting in an overall reduction in the water conservation.The water conservation depth and precipitation had similar spatial distribution patterns;the change in climate factors was the main reason for the decline in the water conservation function in the delta.The reservoir in the upper reaches of the IRD regulated runoff into the Lake Balkhash,promoted vegetation restoration,and had a positive effect on the water conservation;however,this positive effect cannot offset the negative effect of enhanced evapotranspiration.These results provide a reference for the rational allocation of water resources and ecosystem protection in the IRD.

Application of the InVEST model for assessing water yield and its response to precipitation and land use in the Weihe River Basin, China

With realizing the importance of ecosystem services to society, the efforts to evaluate the ecosystem services have increased. As the largest tributary of the Yellow River, the Weihe River has been endowed with many ecological service functions. Among which, water yield can be a measure of local availability of water and an index for evaluating the conservation function of the region. This study aimed to explore the temporal and spatial variation of water yield and its influencing factors in the Weihe River Basin(WRB), and provide basis for formulating reasonable water resources utilization schemes. Based on the InVEST(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs) model, this study simulated the water yield in the WRB from 1985 to 2019, and discussed the impacts of climatic factors and land use change on water yield by spatial autocorrelation analysis and scenario analysis methods. The results showed that there was a slight increasing trend in water yield in the WRB over the study period with the increasing rate of 4.84 mm/10a and an average depth of 83.14 mm. The main water-producing areas were concentrated along the mainstream of the Weihe River and in the southern basin. Changes in water yield were comprehensively affected by climate and underlying surface factors. Precipitation was the main factor affecting water yield, which was consistent with water yield in time. And there existed significant spatial agglomeration between water yield and precipitation. Land use had little impact on the amount of water yield, but had an impact on its spatial distribution. Water yield was higher in areas with wide distribution of construction land and grassland. Water yield of different land use types were different. Unused land showed the largest water yield capacity, whereas grassland and farmland contributed most to the total water yield. The increasing water yield in the basin indicates an enhanced water supply service function of the ecosystem. These results are of great significance to the water resources management of the WRB.

Habitat quality assessment of mining cities based on InVEST model—a case study of Yanshan County,Jiangxi Province

The assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality caused by land use changes can provide a scientifc basis for the ecological protection and green development of mining cities.Taking Yanshan County as an example of a typical mining city,this article discussed the spatial pattern and evolution characteristics of habitat quality in 2000 and 2018 based on the ArcGIS platform and the InVEST model.The conclusions are as below:from 2000 to 2018,the area of farmland and construction land changed the most in the study area.Among them,the area of farmland decreased by 3.48%,and the area of industrial and mining land and construction land increased by 53.25%.Areas of low,relatively low and high habitat quality expanded,and areas of medium and relatively high habitat quality shrank,which is closely related to the distribution of land use.The areas with high habitat degradation degrees appear around cities,mining areas and watersheds,while the areas with low habitat degradation degrees are mainly distributed in the southern woodland.The distribution of cold and hot spots in the habitat quality distribution of Yanshan County presents a pattern of“hot in the south and cold in the north”.The results are of great signifcance to the precise implementation of ecosystem management decisions in mining cities and the creation of a landscape pattern of“beautiful countrysides,green cities,and green mines”.

Study on the Change of Eco-Environmental Quality in Jiufeng Mountain Area Based on InVEST Model

Habitat is not only an important place for animals and plants to inhabit and reproduce, but also the basis of human survival and development. With the large-scale development of mineral resources, land use types have changed sharply, fragile habitats tend to collapse, and the future sustainable development has lost a stable carrier. Habitat quality is a comprehensive expression of the interaction of many factors such as land, biology and water resources for many years. Natural factors are the most direct factors affecting habitat quality, and human activities are the most intense factors. The habitat module of invest model was used to evaluate the changes and temporal and spatial characteristics of habitat quality in Jiufeng Mountain from 1990 to 2018. It is found that the habitat quality in Jiufeng Mountain area shows a downward trend, and the ecological environment is very fragile. The high value areas of eco-environmental quality are mainly distributed in mountainous and hilly areas with high vegetation coverage;The low value areas of eco-environmental quality are mainly distributed in industrial and mining land and gully areas. With the development of society and economy and the development of mining industry in Jiufengshan area, the area of construction land is also increasing.

Analysis of Dynamic Changes in Habitat Quality Based on InVEST Models:A Case Study of Pu er City,Yunnan Province

Based on the data of land use status in 2009-2018 in the annual change survey results of Pu er City,Yunnan Province,China,the habitat quality in the city were studied by using InVEST models.The results show that the area of cultivated land,construction land,and unused land in Pu er City continuously increased from 2009 to 2018.The growth rate of cultivated land and construction land in the next three years was significantly higher than that in the previous three years,while the area of gardens,grassland and woodland continuously decreased.From 2009 to 2018,the habitat quality in Pu er City showed a downward trend,that is,there was a clear increase in the proportion of moderate and poor habitat quality and a decrease in the proportion of superior and good habitat quality.Changes in habitat quality calculated by InVEST models can be used as a grasp of regional ecological environment in the investigation before the audit of natural resource assets and breakthroughs in finding clues of problems,thereby improving the scientificity and efficiency of audit work of natural resource assets.

Spatio-temporal evolution analysis of landscape pattern and habitat quality in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2022 based on InVEST model

Habitat quality is an important indicator for evaluating the quality of ecosystem.The Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin plays an important role in the ecological protection of the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin.To comprehensively analysis the alterations of habitat quality in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin,this study utilized the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model to calculate the habitat quality index and analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of habitat quality in the study area from 2000 to 2022,and calculated seven landscape pattern indices(number of patches,patch density,largest patch index(LPI),landscape shape index(LSI),contagion index(CONTAG),Shannon diversity index,and Shannon evenness index)to research the variation of landscape pattern in the study area.The results showed that the number of patches,patch density,LPI,LSI,Shannon diversity index,and Shannon evenness index increased from 2000 to 2022,while the CONTAG decreased,indicating that the landscape pattern in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin changed in the direction of distribution fragmentation,shape complexity,and heterogeneity.The average value of the habitat quality index in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2022 was 0.90.Based on the value of habitat quality index,we divided the level of habitat quality into five categories:lower(0.00-0.20),low(0.20-0.40),moderate(0.40-0.60),high(0.60-0.80),and higher(0.80-1.00).Most areas were at the higher habitat quality level.The lower habitat quality patches were mainly distributed in Longyang Gorge and Yellow River-Huangshui River Valley.From 2000 to 2022,the habitat quality in most areas was stable;the increase areas were mainly distributed in Guinan County,while the decrease areas were mainly distributed in Xining City,Maqen County,Xinghai County,Qumarleb County,and Darlag County.To show the extent of habitat quality variation,we calculated Sen index.The results showed that the higher habitat quality area had a decrease trending,while other categories had an increasing tendency,and the decreasing was faster than increasing.The research results provide scientific guidance for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin.

基于InVEST模型的宁夏地区生境质量时空演变特征

选取宁夏地区2000,2010和2020年3期土地利用变化数据,运用InVEST模型及ArcGIS软件,分析其土地利用类型和生境质量的时空演变特征与影响因素.结果表明,20年间宁夏土地利用类型变化趋势为:耕地、草地、裸地呈缩减态势,林地、水体、城镇用地呈增长态势;宁夏的土地利用类型变化是多种因素共同作用的结果;宁夏全域的生境质量水平在20年间维持在中等水平.生境质量水平高的区域集中分布在林地、草地及水体区域,生境质量水平低的区域集中分布在各市主城区.城镇化快速、人口密集、道路硬质化高、绿化率低和交通可达性高以及相关政策措施均对宁夏生境质量产生不同程度的影响,呈现出退化的演变趋势;宁夏土地利用类型同生境质量的演变具有明显的相关性.

基于PLUS-InVEST模型的陕南地区土地利用变化多情景模拟与碳储量评估

在PLUS模型中纳入POI驱动因子并利用LASSO回归进行驱动体系筛选与精度验证,设定自然发展、经济保护与生态保护3种情景,利用筛选后的驱动因子模拟2030年各情景下陕南地区的土地利用格局,利用InVEST模型分析2000—2020年陕南地区碳储量的时空分异特征,探讨不同发展情景下土地利用变化对陕南地区碳储量的影响。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年,陕南地区的建设用地面积由23648.49 hm^(2)增长到78000.21 hm^(2),侵占了耕地、林地和草地的生存空间,使其分别减少了39415.05 hm^(2),8787.51 hm^(2)与17476.56 hm^(2),2030年3种发展情景下的建设用地均保持扩张的趋势。(2)在PLUS模型中加入POI驱动因子且利用LASSO算法筛选驱动因子有效提升了模型的精度与运行效率,模型的Kappa系数和OA系数分别提高了2.53%和0.20%,更精准地模拟了建设用地的分布情况。(3)2000—2020年陕南地区碳储量总量呈下降趋势,由2.1887×10^(9)t下降至2.1775×10^(9)t。2030年经济保护情景与自然发展情景的碳储量总量均小于2020年,生态保护情景下的碳储量总量最高,达到了2.1830×10^(9)t。(4)生态保护情景更有利于陕南地区的可持续发展策略,以陕南地区平均碳密度分区分布为基础,可为陕南地区分区发展与区域碳收支平衡提供参考,对未来不同情景下土地利用对区域碳储量的影响和双碳背景下的国土空间规划具有借鉴意义。

基于InVEST模型的京津冀土地利用变化及碳储量时空分异研究

大气中二氧化碳含量的增加是国际社会广泛关注的环境问题,人类活动改变土地利用格局,而土地利用/覆被(land-use/land-cover,LULC)变化影响陆地生态系统结构、功能及碳循环。本文在全球地表覆盖数据GlobeLand30的支持下分析了2000-2020年京津冀土地利用变化,利用InVEST模型模拟了碳储量时空变化,并结合空间自相关分析技术对其进行了分区研究。结果表明:①2000-2020年京津冀地区耕地和人造地表变化面积最大,分别为减少340222.124 hm^(2)和增加246333.493 hm^(2);②京津冀地区2000、2010和2020年碳储量总值分别为1666.47×10^(6)、1654.63×10^(6)、1632.88×10^(6)t,耕地流失和人造地表扩张是碳储量下降的主要原因;③京津冀碳储量高值主要分布在海拔相对较高的山林地区,低值主要分布在北京市中心、津冀海岸带,以及河北省沧州和唐山的东部南部区域;④局部自相关结果表明,碳储量出现高-高聚集的区域在研究区的北部和西部,在出现低-低聚集的区域中天津市东丽区和河北省邯郸市邯山区呈现出较为明显的弱化趋势。

基于PLUS和InVEST模型的合肥市生态系统碳储量时空演变特征

[目的]为寻求“双碳”目标导向下的合肥市城市发展新方案。[方法]依据合肥市2000-2020年5期土地利用数据,在合肥市国土空间规划指引下,运用PLUS模型模拟得到2035年合肥市土地利用时空演变规律,耦合InVEST模型探究多情景下合肥市碳储量时空变化特征,并进一步挖掘土地综合利用程度对碳储量的影响。[结果](1)2000-2020年合肥市土地利用变化特征主要表现为耕地、林地减少,其中耕地为建设用地扩增主要来源。自然发展和农田资源保护情景的土地变化规律大致相同,主要表现为耕地、林地、水体减少;绿色汇增城市发展情景下,林地相比其余2个情景面积由减少转为增加。(2)2000-2020年合肥市碳储量逐年递减,其中2005-2010年碳损失最为剧烈。到2035年,自然发展情景、农田资源保护情景、绿色汇增城市发展情景碳储量分别为138.96×10^(6),140.13×10^(6),139.81×10^(6) t。农田资源保护情景下,碳储量明显增加区域最低,建设用地扩张减缓;绿色汇增城市发展情景下,林地由碳损失转为碳固持,是最具固碳潜力的发展趋势。(3)绿色汇增城市发展情景土地利用率最高,可有效降低土地综合利用程度对碳储量流失的威胁。[结论]农田资源保护情景与绿色汇增城市发展情景均有助于城市固碳发展,实施生态保护与城市发展并行政策,调整土地综合利用模式有助于改善城市碳流失。

基于InVEST模型的共和县生境质量时空变化及驱动因素

在新型城镇化背景下,青海省共和县作为兰西城市群建设的关键节点和典型的荒漠生态脆弱区,其经济和生态的协调发展对建设海南州可持续发展议程创新示范区具有重要意义。本研究基于2000年、2010年、2020年三期土地利用数据,利用InVEST模型,对2000—2020年共和县生境质量时空分布及效应变化特征进行探究,进而对生境质量的影响因子及其作用进行地理探测器和局部空间回归。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年共和县生境质量整体呈上升趋势,生境质量均值分别为0.612(2000年)、0.626(2010年)、0.627(2020年),生境质量空间分布存在明显的区域差异,空间格局上呈现北高南低的态势。(2)影响共和县生境质量的主驱动因子为年平均气温(TEM)和归一化植被指数(NDVI),因子间的交互作用对生境质量空间分异的影响大于单一因子,TEM与香农均匀度指数(SHEI)、香农多样性指数(SHDI)交互作用强烈。(3)TEM对生境质量呈负向效应,负向影响区域主要集中在共和北部与东部地区;NDVI呈正向效应,正向影响区域主要集中在共和中部与南部地区;国民生产总值(GDP)对生境质量的正向效应较2000年上升了30%,塔拉滩光伏促进了共和县生态产业协同发展。研究结果可为干旱区推动地方经济建设和生态环境保护提供科学的决策依据。

基于InVEST-PLUS模型的陕西省水源涵养量估算及预测

[目的]为估算陕西省水源涵养量。[方法]通过耦合InVEST模型和PLUS模型,计算陕西省2000—2020年水源涵养量,并预测未来2030年土地利用变化下的水源涵养量。[结果]陕西省2000—2020年平均水源涵养量为132.25 mm,空间分布特征为水源涵养量由北向南逐渐增强。从植被类型来看,林地是陕西省水源涵养量的主体,年平均水源涵养量为199.55×10^(8)m^(3);从行政区来看,安康市水源涵养量最大(308.96 mm)。2030年陕西省水源涵养总量为285.16×10^(8)m^(3),相比2020年降低8.68×10^(8)m^(3)。[结论]陕西省未来2020—2030年水源涵养量呈略微下降趋势。

基于InVEST模型的黔中喀斯特地区建设用地扩张碳储量变化研究

选择典型生态脆弱区黔中典型喀斯特地区—普定县为研究对象,采用土地利用动态度和土地利用转移分析方法,应用InVEST模型测算2003-2020年的陆地生态系统碳储量及其空间分布格局,探讨建设用地扩张对碳储量变化的影响。结果表明:(1)2003-2020年建设用地面积一直保持增加趋势,扩张速率表现为减缓态势,空间变化在中南部区域最为显著,主要侵占旱地、水田和灌木林地。(2)普定县碳储量整体呈上升趋势,累计增加15.07×10^(5)t,主要因碳密度较高的灌木林地大幅挤占旱地。(3)建设用地变化致使碳储量损失了22.37×10^(4)t,以中南部中心城区碳储量下降最为明显。因此,建议研究区在城市扩张过程中优先考虑碳密度较低的未利用地,同时限制建设用地对旱地、水田以及灌木林地的占用,以减少建设用地扩张对区域碳储存能力的影响。

基于PLUS-InVEST模型的呼和浩特市多情景土地利用变化动态模拟及碳储量评估

为探究呼和浩特市土地利用变化对生态系统碳储量的影响,本研究基于InVEST模型与PLUS模型模拟预测呼和浩特市在自然发展、生态保护、耕地保护、城市发展4种情景下的土地利用与碳储量。结果表明:1990-2020年呼和浩特市不透水面、林地、草地、水体等土地利用类型的面积呈增加状态,耕地、裸地、灌木地等土地类型的面积呈减少状态,其中灌木地和裸地的土地转出率较高,分别为93.63%和98.24%。InVEST模型估算结果显示,不透水面不断扩张,侵蚀耕地等高碳密度土地类型,造成呼和浩特市1990-2020年碳储量呈逐年递减趋势。2030年自然发展、生态保护、耕地保护、城市发展情景模拟下的呼和浩特市的碳储量与2020年相比均呈现减少状态,其中耕地保护情景碳储量降幅最小,其次为生态保护情景,说明采取合理的保护措施能够有效抑制碳储量下降。耕地保护情景能够有效减缓城市建筑的扩张趋势,生态保护情景则可有效增加水体、草地等生态类用地面积。研究表明,落实耕地和生态保护政策、优化土地利用结构、提高土地利用效率对呼和浩特市的可持续发展均有重要意义。

基于FLUS和InVEST模型的云贵高原土地利用与生态系统服务时空变化多情景模拟研究

[目的]探讨云贵高原不同情景下的土地利用与生态系统服务时空变化,为云贵高原土地利用空间格局优化、生态系统服务功能提升和可持续发展策略制定提供科学依据。[方法]以云贵高原为研究对象,以2001年、2010年和2020年3期MCD12Q1土地覆被数据为基础数据,辅以自然和社会经济数据,基于ArcGIS,FLUS模型和InVEST模型,模拟2030年、2040年和2050年自然发展情景、生态保护情景和耕地保护情景下的土地利用以及碳储量、产水量和土壤保持量3项生态系统服务功能时空分布格局。[结果](1)不同情景下云贵高原的土地利用变化以林地持续增加和草地持续减少为主要趋势;耕地保护情景下,耕地面积最高可占总面积的10.38%;生态保护情景下,林草面积在2050年可达总面积的90%。(2) 3种情景下,云贵高原2020—2050年碳储量和土壤保持量均呈上升趋势,而产水量呈下降趋势。生态保护情景下,2050年碳储量预测值最高,为8.13×10^(9) t;产水量减少速率显著低于另外两种情景,降幅为0.46%。(3)宜昌市、普洱市和常德市等市州的生态系统服务供给能力较高;而贵阳市、毕节市和安顺市等市州的生态系统服务供给能力较低。[结论]云贵高原2020—2050年整体生态系统服务供给能力较好,各项服务功能在不同情景下表现出较强的空间聚集性和异质性。云贵高原今后的生态系统服务管理和可持续发展中,应考虑不同生态系统服务功能的空间异质性以及林地面积持续增加可能带来的水资源失衡问题。

基于InVEST模型的晋北土地利用变化与碳储量研究

区域土地利用变化和碳储量的空间分布特征研究可为区域生态系统碳库管理和减排增汇政策制定提供重要科学依据。采用GIS和遥感技术分析了晋北地区1990年、2000年、2013年和2019年的土地利用变化特征,在此基础上,运用InVEST模型计算出晋北地区1990—2019年间生态系统碳储量和碳密度。结果表明,各土地利用类型之间的转换主要发生在2000—2013年间,转出面积最多的为耕地,转入面积最多的为建设用地和林地。这与该时段退耕还林政策的实施和粗放型经济快速增长有关。研究区1990年、2000年、2013年和2019年生态系统碳储量分别为53.50×10^(7)t、53.53×10^(7)t、54.25×10^(7)t和54.00×10^(7)t,碳平均密度分别为147.89 t/hm^(2)、147.97 t/hm^(2)、149.95 t/hm^(2)和149.27 t/hm^(2)。在总体碳储量中,土壤碳储量占比最大,超过80%,而林地对研究区生态系统碳储量的贡献值最大(约55%)。晋北地区应继续坚持退耕还林、水土保持等措施,以期能够用高效固碳来代偿建设用地扩张导致的碳损失。

基于InVEST模型的甘肃省碳储量时空变化研究

本文借助ArcGIS软件和InVEST碳储量模块,分析甘肃省2000-2020年土地利用变化对碳储量时空变化的影响,以期为甘肃省增强区域碳汇潜力,促进“双碳”目标的实现提供理论参考。结果表明,(1)从碳储量的时间动态变化上看,甘肃省2000、2005、2010、2015、2020年碳储量分别为3318.19×10^(6)、3325.69×10^(6)、3329.02×10^(6)、3322.44×10^(6)和3322.20×10^(6)t,碳储量呈先增后减趋势,总体增加了4.20×10^(6)t。(2)从碳储量的空间动态变化上看,甘肃省碳储量分布呈东南高,西北低的格局,碳储量较高的地区主要集中甘肃省东南部,以林地为主;碳储量较低的地区主要集中在甘肃省西北部,以未利用地为主。(3)甘肃省土地利用类型的碳储量大小为:草地>林地>耕地>未利用地>建设用地>水域;甘肃省最主要的碳库是林地和草地,甘肃省碳损失的主要原因是耕地面积的减少。

基于InVEST模型的新疆1990—2018年产水服务时空变化及驱动因素分析

产水服务是重要的生态系统服务功能之一,评估产水服务空间分异特征、明确不同自然资源分区的关键驱动因子,是维系新疆生态安全和可持续发展的关键。本研究利用InVEST模型模拟新疆1990—2018年产水服务时空变化,选择气候、土壤、地形、土地利用等因子,采用地理探测器开展产水服务空间异质性归因分析。结果表明:(1)1990—2018年新疆产水总量变化为524.39×10^(8)~683.42×10^(8)m^(3),高值区集中在阿尔泰山、准噶尔盆地西部山地及天山山地等地区。(2)研究区不同地类的产水能力不同,其中荒漠和林地的产水能力最高,草地和水体与湿地其次,耕地和建设用地产水能力最差。(3)在新疆全域,气候类因子的解释能力最强,尤其是年总降水量因子,解释能力达到0.9以上;不同自然资源分区,产水服务空间分异的主要驱动因子存在明显差异,但年总降水量因子仍为第一主导因子。(4)因子的交互作用对产水服务的空间分布解释能力大于单个因子的解释能力,气候因子与地形因子的交互作用解释能力最强,其次是气候因子与土地利用因子的交互。因此,新疆产水服务的维持与保护工作应充分考虑气候、地形、土地利用等因素,制定合理的水资源管理和保护措施。

基于Invest模型和Flus模型的江苏省碳储量变化模拟与预测

为明确土地利用变化对碳储量的具体影响,实现耕地、林地等生态环境的更好保护,以江苏省为例,基于2000年、2010年和2020年土地利用数据,采用Invest模型的碳储存和固定模块以及Flus模型ANN模块、CA模块、Markov Chain模块,分析了江苏省不同土地利用类型碳储量变化特征,并预测了自然发展情景和生态保护情景下2030年和2050年江苏省碳储存与固定情况。结果表明,2000年、2010年与2020年,江苏省碳储量整体呈下降趋势,从1803.948×10^(6)t下降至1641.008×10^(6)t,其中耕地碳储量下降最多,为239.494×10^(6)t。这种现象的发生与江苏省工业化和城市化导致的耕地和林地等面积的减少并转为建筑用地有关。此外,各市碳储量差异较显著,其中盐城市碳储量最大,占全省总碳储量的16.12%,无锡市在全省碳储量中占比最小(4.12%)。基于ArcGIS 10.2软件和GeoDa 1.20软件分析发现,2000—2010年,南京、无锡、常州的碳储量分布呈低-低聚集,连云港市呈低-高聚集;2020年无锡、常州、镇江呈现低-低聚集,连云港市呈现高-高聚集。本研究预测结果表明2030年和2050年的生态保护情景下碳存储能力较自然发展情景有一定提升,分别提升6.069×10^(6)t和5.861×10^(6)t。本研究结果可为江苏省更好地建设生态环境提供数据支撑。