Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield and water conservation in the Bosten Lake Basin based on the PLUS-InVEST model

To comprehensively evaluate the alterations in water ecosystem service functions within arid watersheds,this study focused on the Bosten Lake Basin,which is situated in the arid region of Northwest China.The research was based on land use/land cover(LULC),natural,socioeconomic,and accessibility data,utilizing the Patch-level Land Use Simulation(PLUS)and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)models to dynamically assess LULC change and associated variations in water yield and water conservation.The analyses included the evaluation of contribution indices of various land use types and the investigation of driving factors that influence water yield and water conservation.The results showed that the change of LULC in the Bosten Lake Basin from 2000 to 2020 showed a trend of increasing in cultivated land and construction land,and decreasing in grassland,forest,and unused land.The unused land of all the three predicted scenarios of 2030(S1,a natural development scenario;S2,an ecological protection scenario;and S3,a cultivated land protection scenario)showed a decreasing trend.The scenarios S1 and S3 showed a trend of decreasing in grassland and increasing in cultivated land;while the scenario S2 showed a trend of decreasing in cultivated land and increasing in grassland.The water yield of the Bosten Lake Basin exhibited an initial decline followed by a slight increase from 2000 to 2020.The areas with higher water yield values were primarily located in the northern section of the basin,which is characterized by higher altitude.Water conservation demonstrated a pattern of initial decrease followed by stabilization,with the northeastern region demonstrating higher water conservation values.In the projected LULC scenarios of 2030,the estimated water yield under scenarios S1 and S3 was marginally greater than that under scenario S2;while the level of water conservation across all three scenarios remained rather consistent.The results showed that Hejing County is an important water conservation function zone,and the eastern part of the Xiaoyouledusi Basin is particularly important and should be protected.The findings of this study offer a scientific foundation for advancing sustainable development in arid watersheds and facilitating efficient water resource management.

Spatio-temporal evolution analysis of landscape pattern and habitat quality in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2022 based on InVEST model

Habitat quality is an important indicator for evaluating the quality of ecosystem.The Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin plays an important role in the ecological protection of the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin.To comprehensively analysis the alterations of habitat quality in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin,this study utilized the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model to calculate the habitat quality index and analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of habitat quality in the study area from 2000 to 2022,and calculated seven landscape pattern indices(number of patches,patch density,largest patch index(LPI),landscape shape index(LSI),contagion index(CONTAG),Shannon diversity index,and Shannon evenness index)to research the variation of landscape pattern in the study area.The results showed that the number of patches,patch density,LPI,LSI,Shannon diversity index,and Shannon evenness index increased from 2000 to 2022,while the CONTAG decreased,indicating that the landscape pattern in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin changed in the direction of distribution fragmentation,shape complexity,and heterogeneity.The average value of the habitat quality index in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2022 was 0.90.Based on the value of habitat quality index,we divided the level of habitat quality into five categories:lower(0.00-0.20),low(0.20-0.40),moderate(0.40-0.60),high(0.60-0.80),and higher(0.80-1.00).Most areas were at the higher habitat quality level.The lower habitat quality patches were mainly distributed in Longyang Gorge and Yellow River-Huangshui River Valley.From 2000 to 2022,the habitat quality in most areas was stable;the increase areas were mainly distributed in Guinan County,while the decrease areas were mainly distributed in Xining City,Maqen County,Xinghai County,Qumarleb County,and Darlag County.To show the extent of habitat quality variation,we calculated Sen index.The results showed that the higher habitat quality area had a decrease trending,while other categories had an increasing tendency,and the decreasing was faster than increasing.The research results provide scientific guidance for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin.

Application of the InVEST model for assessing water yield and its response to precipitation and land use in the Weihe River Basin, China

With realizing the importance of ecosystem services to society, the efforts to evaluate the ecosystem services have increased. As the largest tributary of the Yellow River, the Weihe River has been endowed with many ecological service functions. Among which, water yield can be a measure of local availability of water and an index for evaluating the conservation function of the region. This study aimed to explore the temporal and spatial variation of water yield and its influencing factors in the Weihe River Basin(WRB), and provide basis for formulating reasonable water resources utilization schemes. Based on the InVEST(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs) model, this study simulated the water yield in the WRB from 1985 to 2019, and discussed the impacts of climatic factors and land use change on water yield by spatial autocorrelation analysis and scenario analysis methods. The results showed that there was a slight increasing trend in water yield in the WRB over the study period with the increasing rate of 4.84 mm/10a and an average depth of 83.14 mm. The main water-producing areas were concentrated along the mainstream of the Weihe River and in the southern basin. Changes in water yield were comprehensively affected by climate and underlying surface factors. Precipitation was the main factor affecting water yield, which was consistent with water yield in time. And there existed significant spatial agglomeration between water yield and precipitation. Land use had little impact on the amount of water yield, but had an impact on its spatial distribution. Water yield was higher in areas with wide distribution of construction land and grassland. Water yield of different land use types were different. Unused land showed the largest water yield capacity, whereas grassland and farmland contributed most to the total water yield. The increasing water yield in the basin indicates an enhanced water supply service function of the ecosystem. These results are of great significance to the water resources management of the WRB.

Habitat quality assessment of mining cities based on InVEST model—a case study of Yanshan County,Jiangxi Province

The assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality caused by land use changes can provide a scientifc basis for the ecological protection and green development of mining cities.Taking Yanshan County as an example of a typical mining city,this article discussed the spatial pattern and evolution characteristics of habitat quality in 2000 and 2018 based on the ArcGIS platform and the InVEST model.The conclusions are as below:from 2000 to 2018,the area of farmland and construction land changed the most in the study area.Among them,the area of farmland decreased by 3.48%,and the area of industrial and mining land and construction land increased by 53.25%.Areas of low,relatively low and high habitat quality expanded,and areas of medium and relatively high habitat quality shrank,which is closely related to the distribution of land use.The areas with high habitat degradation degrees appear around cities,mining areas and watersheds,while the areas with low habitat degradation degrees are mainly distributed in the southern woodland.The distribution of cold and hot spots in the habitat quality distribution of Yanshan County presents a pattern of“hot in the south and cold in the north”.The results are of great signifcance to the precise implementation of ecosystem management decisions in mining cities and the creation of a landscape pattern of“beautiful countrysides,green cities,and green mines”.

Evaluation of the water conservation function in the Ili River Delta of Central Asia based on the InVEST model

The Ili River Delta(IRD)is an ecological security barrier for the Lake Balkhash and an important water conservation area in Central Asia.In this study,we selected the IRD as a typical research area,and simulated the water yield and water conservation from 1975 to 2020 using the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.We further analyzed the temporal and spatial variations in the water yield and water conservation in the IRD from 1975 to 2020,and investigated the main driving factors(precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,land use/land cover change,and inflow from the Ili River)of the water conservation variation based on the linear regression,piecewise linear regression,and Pearson's correlation coefficient analyses.The results indicated that from 1975 to 2020,the water yield and water conservation in the IRD showed a decreasing trend,and the spatial distribution pattern was"high in the east and low in the west";overall,the water conservation of all land use types decreased slightly.The water conservation volume of grassland was the most reduced,although the area of grassland increased owing to the increased inflow from the Ili River.At the same time,the increased inflow has led to the expansion of wetland areas,the improvement of vegetation growth,and the increase of regional evapotranspiration,thus resulting in an overall reduction in the water conservation.The water conservation depth and precipitation had similar spatial distribution patterns;the change in climate factors was the main reason for the decline in the water conservation function in the delta.The reservoir in the upper reaches of the IRD regulated runoff into the Lake Balkhash,promoted vegetation restoration,and had a positive effect on the water conservation;however,this positive effect cannot offset the negative effect of enhanced evapotranspiration.These results provide a reference for the rational allocation of water resources and ecosystem protection in the IRD.

Investment in deepwater oil and gas exploration projects:a multi-factor analysis with a real options model

Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.

Study on the Change of Eco-Environmental Quality in Jiufeng Mountain Area Based on InVEST Model

Habitat is not only an important place for animals and plants to inhabit and reproduce, but also the basis of human survival and development. With the large-scale development of mineral resources, land use types have changed sharply, fragile habitats tend to collapse, and the future sustainable development has lost a stable carrier. Habitat quality is a comprehensive expression of the interaction of many factors such as land, biology and water resources for many years. Natural factors are the most direct factors affecting habitat quality, and human activities are the most intense factors. The habitat module of invest model was used to evaluate the changes and temporal and spatial characteristics of habitat quality in Jiufeng Mountain from 1990 to 2018. It is found that the habitat quality in Jiufeng Mountain area shows a downward trend, and the ecological environment is very fragile. The high value areas of eco-environmental quality are mainly distributed in mountainous and hilly areas with high vegetation coverage;The low value areas of eco-environmental quality are mainly distributed in industrial and mining land and gully areas. With the development of society and economy and the development of mining industry in Jiufengshan area, the area of construction land is also increasing.

Analysis of Dynamic Changes in Habitat Quality Based on InVEST Models:A Case Study of Pu er City,Yunnan Province

Based on the data of land use status in 2009-2018 in the annual change survey results of Pu er City,Yunnan Province,China,the habitat quality in the city were studied by using InVEST models.The results show that the area of cultivated land,construction land,and unused land in Pu er City continuously increased from 2009 to 2018.The growth rate of cultivated land and construction land in the next three years was significantly higher than that in the previous three years,while the area of gardens,grassland and woodland continuously decreased.From 2009 to 2018,the habitat quality in Pu er City showed a downward trend,that is,there was a clear increase in the proportion of moderate and poor habitat quality and a decrease in the proportion of superior and good habitat quality.Changes in habitat quality calculated by InVEST models can be used as a grasp of regional ecological environment in the investigation before the audit of natural resource assets and breakthroughs in finding clues of problems,thereby improving the scientificity and efficiency of audit work of natural resource assets.

China＇s Direct Investment in Advanced Economies： the Cases of Europe and the United States

Chinese outward foreign direct has increased substantially in recent years, investment （OFDI） in developed economies driven by structural adjustments in China ＇s economy. This article describes the inflection point of Chinese investment in the European Union and the United States since 2008. A new data set is used to highlight similarities and differences of Chinese investment patterns in the world＇s two biggest economies. The second part examines the policy response on both sides of the Atlantic to promote investment from China and at the same time address political and economic risks related to these new flows.

The Metro Investment and Financing in Domestic and Overseas

The paper analyzes several representative overseas investment models, afterwards to domestic actuality of investment and financing in metro development, then advise about intemalunderground investment and financing after comparison.

Rural Road Investment and Economic Growth

The relationship between rural road①systems and economic systems is interconnectedness.The stimulating effects of investments in rural road infrastructure can be divided into three stages:investment,use,and upgrading.This paper presents this three-stage model of rural road construction to explain the process of stimulating economic growth by investing in rural roads.The investment stage produces a multiplier effect as the investment stimulates the economy.The use stage promotes the development of industries,which determines the stimulation effects of the investment.The upgrading stage produces economic growth leading to the upgrading of additional infrastructure,which generates more investments and also has a multiplier effect.Finally,the total revenue from the three stages,minus their total costs,allows for the calculation of Net Present Value(NPV).The investments can be deemed effective if the NPV is greater than zero.

Mangrove wetlands distribution status identification, changing trend analyzation and carbon storage assessment of China

This research investigates the ecological importance,changes,and status of mangrove wetlands along China’s coastline.Visual interpretation,geological surveys,and ISO clustering unsupervised classification methods are employed to interpret mangrove distribution from remote sensing images from 2021,utilizing ArcGIS software platform.Furthermore,the carbon storage capacity of mangrove wetlands is quantified using the carbon storage module of InVEST model.Results show that the mangrove wetlands in China covered an area of 278.85 km2 in 2021,predominantly distributed in Hainan,Guangxi,Guangdong,Fujian,Zhejiang,Taiwan,Hong Kong,and Macao.The total carbon storage is assessed at 2.11×10^(6) t,with specific regional data provided.Trends since the 1950s reveal periods of increase,decrease,sharp decrease,and slight-steady increases in mangrove areas in China.An important finding is the predominant replacement of natural coastlines adjacent to mangrove wetlands by artificial ones,highlighting the need for creating suitable spaces for mangrove restoration.This study is poised to guide future mangroverelated investigations and conservation strategies.

Influence of Human Activity Intensity on Habitat Quality in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park,China

Due to long-term human activity interference,the Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park(HTRNP)of China has experienced ecological problems such as habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss,and with the expanding scope and intensity of human activity impact,the regional ecological security is facing serious challenges.A scientific assessment of the interrelationship between human activity intensity and habitat quality in the HTRNP is a prerequisite for achieving effective management of ecological disturbances caused by human activities and can also provide scientific strategies for the sustainable development of the region.Based on the land use change data in 2000,2010,and 2020,the spatial and temporal variations and the relationship between habitat quality(HQ)and human activity intensity(HAI)in the HTRNP were explored using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs(InVEST)model.System dynamics and land use simulation models were also combined to conduct multi-scenario simulations of their relationships.The results showed that during 2000–2020,the habitat quality of the HTRNP improved,the intensity of human activities decreased each year,and there was a negative correlation between the two.Second,the system dynamic model could be well coupled with the land use simulation model by combining socio-economic and natural factors.The simulation scenarios of the coupling model showed that the harmonious development(HD)scenario is effective in curbing the increasing trend of human activity intensity and decreasing trend of habitat quality,with a weaker trade-off between the two compared with the baseline development(BD)and investment priority oriented(IPO)scenarios.To maintain the authenticity and integrity of the HTRNP,effective measures such as ecological corridor construction,ecological restoration,and the implementation of ecological compensation policies need to be strengthened.

Influence of ecological function protection zone on the water conservation in Gansu-Qinghai Contiguous Region of the upper Yellow River

The implementation of Ecological Function Protection Zone(EFPZ)policy is significant for the ecological restoration and conservation of soil and water in the territory space.This manuscript analyzed and quantified the impact of EFPZ on the regional water conservation function,based on land use data from 2005,2008,2010,2015 and 2020,by conducting a counterfactual simulation along with the GeoSOS-FLUS model and the InVEST model.The results demonstrate that the delineation of EFPZ can significantly influence the water conservation.(1)From 2010 to 2020,as the EFPZ was implemented,the water conservation in the study area was increasing year by year,with a growth rate of 0.03×10^(8) m^(3)∙a^(-1).On the other hand,the simulated water conservation capacity without the implementation of EFPZ decreased year by year,with a decrease rate of 0.01×10^(8) m^(3)∙a^(-1).(2)The EFPZ accounts for only 23%of the total area,but the contribution rate of water conservation reaches 80%.The actual values of water conservation and average water yield per unit pixel in the EFPZ show an increasing trend both internally and externally,while the counterfactual simulation values exhibit a decreasing trend.(3)The water conservation is much higher within the EFPZ than without EFPZ.The implementation of EFPZ has a significant effect on the improvement of the water conservation capacity in Maqu EFPZ and Yellow River Source EFPZ.The protection effectiveness should be enhanced in Qilian Mountain EFPZ and afforestation activities need to be carefully considered in Loess Plateau EFPZ.

Spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their trade-offs and synergies against the background of the gully control and land consolidation project on the Loess Plateau,China

Studying the spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their interrelationships on the Loess Plateau against the background of the gully control and land consolidation(GCLC)project has significant implications for ecological protection and quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Therefore,in this study,we took Yan'an City,Shaanxi Province of China,as the study area,selected four typical ecosystem services,including soil conservation service,water yield service,carbon storage service,and habitat quality service,and quantitatively evaluated the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services from 2010 to 2018 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.We also analysed the relationship between the GCLC project and regional ecosystem service changes in various regions(including 1 city,2 districts,and 10 counties)of Yan'an City and proposed a coordinated development strategy between the GCLC project and the ecological environment.The results showed that,from 2010 to 2018,soil conservation service decreased by 7.76%,while the other three ecosystem services changed relatively little,with water yield service increasing by 0.56% and carbon storage service and habitat quality service decreasing by 0.16% and 0.14%,respectively.The ecological environment of Yan'an City developed in a balanced way between 2010 and 2018,and the four ecosystem services showed synergistic relationships,among which the synergistic relationships between soil conservation service and water yield service and between carbon storage service and habitat quality service were significant.The GCLC project had a negative impact on the ecosystem services of Yan'an City,and the impact on carbon storage service was more significant.This study provides a theoretical basis for the scientific evaluation of the ecological benefits of the GCLC project and the realization of a win-win situation between food security and ecological security.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Typical Ecosystem Services and Their Spatial Responses to Driving Factors in Ecologically Fragile Areas in Upper Yellow River,China

The identification of dominant driving factors for different ecosystem services(ESs)is crucial for ecological conservation and sustainable development.However,the spatial heterogeneity of the dominant driving factors affecting various ESs has not been adequately elucidated,particularly in ecologically fragile regions.This study employed the integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs(InVEST)model to evaluate four ESs,namely,water yield(WY),soil conservation(SC),habitat quality(HQ),and carbon storage(CS),and then to identify the dominant driving factors of spatiotemporal differentiation of ES and further to characterize the spatial heterogeneity characteristics of the dominant driving factors in the eco-fragile areas of the upper Yellow River,China from 2000 to 2020.The results demonstrated that WY exhibited northeast-high and northwest-low patterns in the upper Yellow River region,while high values of SC and CS were distributed in central forested areas and a high value of HQ was distributed in vast grassland areas.The CS,WY,and SC exhibited decreasing trends over time.The most critical factors affecting WY,SC,HQ,and CS were the actual evapotranspiration,precipitation,slope,and normalized difference vegetation index,respectively.In addition,the effects of different factors on various ESs exhibited spatial heterogeneity.These results could provide spatial decision support for eco-protection and rehabilitation in ecologically fragile areas.

Exploring the Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Forces of Ecosystem Services of Zhejiang Coasts,China,Under Sustainable Development Goals

Ecosystem services(ESs)refer to the continuous provisioning of ecosystem goods and services that benefit human beings.Over recent decades,rapid urbanization has exerted significant pressure on coastal ecosystems,resulting in biodiversity and habitat loss,environmental pollution,and the depletion of natural resources.In response to these environmental challenges,the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)were proposed.Given the pressing need to address these issues,understanding the changes in ESs under the SDGs is crucial for formulating specific ecological strategies.In this study,we first analyzed land use and cover change in the Zhejiang coasts of China during 2000–2020.Then,we investigated the spatiotemporal configuration of ESs by integrating carbon storage(CS),soil retention(SR),habitat quality(HQ)and water yield(WY)using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.The driving mechanisms of ESs,which varied by space and time,were also explored using the Geo-detector method.The results revealed that,over the past two decades:1)the Zhejiang coasts have experienced a significant increase of 2783.72 km^(2) in built-up land areas and a continuous decrease in farmland areas due to rapid urbanization;2)owing to higher precipitation,extensive vegetation cover,and reduced anthropogenic disturbances,forests emerge as a crucial land use type for maintaining ecosystem services such as HQ,CS,WY,and SR;3)ESs have generally declined across the entire Zhejiang coasts,with a significant decrease observed in the northern areas and an increase in the southern areas spatially;4)the expansion of built-up land areas emerged as the primary factor affecting ecosystem services,while the vegetation factor has been increasingly significant and is expected to become predominant in the near future.Our study provides insights of understanding of ecosystem service theory and emphasizing the importance of preserving biodiversity for long-term sustainable development,and valuable scientific references to support the ecological management decision-making for local governments.

Spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem services and driving factors in the Tianchi Bogda Peak Natural Reserve of Xinjiang,China

Nature reserves play a significant role in providing ecosystem services and are key sites for biodiversity conservation.The Tianchi Bogda Peak Natural Reserve(TBPNR),located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China,is an important ecological barrier area in the temperate arid zone.The evaluation of its important ecosystem services is of great significance to improve the management level and ecological protection efficiency of the reserve.In the present study,we assessed the spatiotemporal variations of four ecosystem services(including net primary productivity(NPP),water yield,soil conservation,and habitat quality)in the TBPNR from 2000 to 2020 based on the environmental and social data using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.In addition,the coldspot and hotspot areas of ecosystem services were identified by hotspot analysis,and the trade-off and synergistic relationships between ecosystem services were analyzed using factor analysis in a geographic detector.During the study period,NPP and soil conservation values in the reserve increased by 48.20%and 25.56%,respectively;conversely,water yield decreased by 16.56%,and there was no significant change in habitat quality.Spatially,both NPP and habitat quality values were higher in the northern part and lower in the southern part,whereas water yield showed an opposite trend.Correlation analysis revealed that NPP showed a synergistic relationship with habitat quality and soil conservation,and exhibited a trade-off relationship with water yield.Water yield and habitat quality also had a trade-off relationship.NPP and habitat quality were affected by annual average temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),respectively,while water yield and soil conservation were more affected by digital elevation model(DEM).Therefore,attention should be paid to the spatial distribution and dynamics of trade-off and synergistic relationships between ecosystem services in future ecological management.The findings of the present study provide a reference that could facilitate the sustainable utilization of ecosystem services in the typical fragile areas of Northwest China.

Spatiotemporal evolution of water conservation function and its driving factors in the Huangshui River Basin, China

The Grain for Green project has had a substantial influence on water conservation in the Huangshui River Basin,China through afforestation and grassland restoration over the past two decades.However,a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of water conservation function and its driving factors remains incomplete in this basin.In this study,we utilized the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of water conservation function in the Huangshui River Basin from 2000 to 2020.Additionally,we employed the random forest model,Pearson correlation analysis,and geographical detector(Geodetector)techniques to investigate the primary factors and factor interactions affecting the spatial differentiation of water conservation function.The findings revealed several key points.First,the high-latitude northern region of the study area experienced a significant increase in water conservation over the 21-a period.Second,the Grain for Green project has played a substantial role in improving water conservation function.Third,precipitation,plant available water content(PAWC),grassland,gross domestic product(GDP),and forest land were primary factors influencing the water conservation function.Finally,the spatial differentiation of water conservation function was determined by the interactions among geographical conditions,climatic factors,vegetation biophysical factors,and socio-economic factors.The findings have significant implications for advancing ecological protection and restoration initiatives,enhancing regional water supply capabilities,and safeguarding ecosystem health and stability in the Huangshui River Basin.

Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.