The reliability optimization process in earthquake engineering requires that the expected present value of the total cos<span style="color:black;font-family:Verdana;">t is mini</span><span sty...The reliability optimization process in earthquake engineering requires that the expected present value of the total cos<span style="color:black;font-family:Verdana;">t is mini</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">mized, including the initial cost as well as the damage costs caused by earthquakes, which include indirect costs. One of these costs is concerned with how much society is willing to invest for preserving human life. Ethical principles, on which to base the assessment of this cost, are presented and discussed in this work. Individual and social values are analyzed. Finally, an optimal seismic design coefficient with the results obtained is calculated for a site with low seismicity.</span>展开更多
[Objective] The aim of this study was to evaluate the economic loss caused by Zhouqu debris flow. [Method] After the large debris flows happened on August 7, 2010 in Zhouqu, Gansu Province, we collected data at the fi...[Objective] The aim of this study was to evaluate the economic loss caused by Zhouqu debris flow. [Method] After the large debris flows happened on August 7, 2010 in Zhouqu, Gansu Province, we collected data at the first time after the disaster, and then built an assessment model to estimate the potential economic losses. [Result] The total loss reached 16.57×10^2 million Yuan, in which indirect economic loss was up to 2.42×10^2 million yaun while the actual direct economic loss was around 14.15×10^2 million Yuan. [Conclusion] The proportional coefficient method is a rapid and efficient method for evaluating the indirect loss caused by disasters.展开更多
Disaster clusters refer to major disasters that cluster in space and time without any linkage, resulting in large direct damage and economic ripple effects(EREs).However, the cumulative EREs caused by a disaster clust...Disaster clusters refer to major disasters that cluster in space and time without any linkage, resulting in large direct damage and economic ripple effects(EREs).However, the cumulative EREs caused by a disaster cluster may not be equal to the summation EREs of the individual disasters within a cluster. We constructed a global economic ripple input-output model suitable for the analysis of disaster clusters and demonstrated the extent of this difference with the example of two typical catastrophes that occurred in 2011(the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Great Thailand Flood), within an interval of only 136 days. The results indicate that:(1) The EREs suffered by 11 of the 35countries affected(30%) are “1 + 1 > 2”, and “1 + 1 < 2”for 24 of the 35 countries affected(70%). This indicates that there is a signifi cant difference between the cumulative and the summation losses. The difference is related to factors such as trade distance, economic influence of disasteraffected sectors, and trade ties;(2) The EREs are more than two times the direct loss and have an industrial dependence, mostly aggregated in key sectors with strong industrial influence and fast trade times in the industrial chain;and(3) Additional EREs due to the extension of the recovery period will be aggregated in countries with close trade ties to the disaster-affected country, further magnifying the difference.展开更多
文摘The reliability optimization process in earthquake engineering requires that the expected present value of the total cos<span style="color:black;font-family:Verdana;">t is mini</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">mized, including the initial cost as well as the damage costs caused by earthquakes, which include indirect costs. One of these costs is concerned with how much society is willing to invest for preserving human life. Ethical principles, on which to base the assessment of this cost, are presented and discussed in this work. Individual and social values are analyzed. Finally, an optimal seismic design coefficient with the results obtained is calculated for a site with low seismicity.</span>
基金Supported by National Key Technology Research and Development Program(2008BAK50B06)~~
文摘[Objective] The aim of this study was to evaluate the economic loss caused by Zhouqu debris flow. [Method] After the large debris flows happened on August 7, 2010 in Zhouqu, Gansu Province, we collected data at the first time after the disaster, and then built an assessment model to estimate the potential economic losses. [Result] The total loss reached 16.57×10^2 million Yuan, in which indirect economic loss was up to 2.42×10^2 million yaun while the actual direct economic loss was around 14.15×10^2 million Yuan. [Conclusion] The proportional coefficient method is a rapid and efficient method for evaluating the indirect loss caused by disasters.
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42171074,41907395)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFC1502902)+2 种基金the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2021M690425)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2021NTST28)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(No.2019QZKK0906).
文摘Disaster clusters refer to major disasters that cluster in space and time without any linkage, resulting in large direct damage and economic ripple effects(EREs).However, the cumulative EREs caused by a disaster cluster may not be equal to the summation EREs of the individual disasters within a cluster. We constructed a global economic ripple input-output model suitable for the analysis of disaster clusters and demonstrated the extent of this difference with the example of two typical catastrophes that occurred in 2011(the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Great Thailand Flood), within an interval of only 136 days. The results indicate that:(1) The EREs suffered by 11 of the 35countries affected(30%) are “1 + 1 > 2”, and “1 + 1 < 2”for 24 of the 35 countries affected(70%). This indicates that there is a signifi cant difference between the cumulative and the summation losses. The difference is related to factors such as trade distance, economic influence of disasteraffected sectors, and trade ties;(2) The EREs are more than two times the direct loss and have an industrial dependence, mostly aggregated in key sectors with strong industrial influence and fast trade times in the industrial chain;and(3) Additional EREs due to the extension of the recovery period will be aggregated in countries with close trade ties to the disaster-affected country, further magnifying the difference.
