Vulnerability and Conservation of Nearshore Cetaceans to Increasing Vessel Traffic:The Indo-Pacific Humpback Dolphin in the South China Sea

A comprehensive risk assessment to evaluate the vulnerability of the nearshore cetaceans to increasing marine traffic is lacking.In this study,the risk to Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins(Sousa chinensis)in the main habitats in China was assessed based on a semiquantitative spatial vulnerability analysis.85%of the(sub)population which overlapped with the lanes of ferries and/or cargo vessels,with exposure scores of 1.23±0.31(calculated based on the proportion of sea routes that overlap the dolphin’s range).A combination of high exposure to the sea routes and sensitivity to marine traffic would render the(sub)populations to be highly vulnerable(EPRE:5.21 and XM:4.47).A low frequency of vessels and an awareness of the ecology assures a low vulnerability(SH:2.43,EZ:2.73).Uncertainty scores were commonly lower for the higher vulnerable populations,and higher for the lower vulnerable populations,suggesting additional field data and more monitoring are necessary.Six years of field data have been used to analyze the influences of various types of marine traffic on humpback dolphin behavior.Fishing and non-fishing vessels were significantly different(χ^(2)=65.19,p<0.01).The humpback dolphins were attracted by fishing vessels(83.1%)but avoided non-fishing vessels(95.2%).We recommend a management with seasonal and geographical constraints,to balance economic development and environmental conservation.

New Trends in Japan's“Indo-Pacific”Strategy

Introduced by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and inherited and developed by Fumio Kishida,Japan's“Indo–Pacific”strategy has gradually taken shape.This strategy can be deemed a broad vision,covering a wide range of topics and an extensive network of partners,with a strong trend of pan-securitization.It is a comprehensive inter national st rateg y based on Japan's alliance policy and China containment strategy,following a global,security-oriented approach.Driven by considerations such as maintaining its economic status,realizing its long-cherished dream of becoming a political powerhouse,and containing China,Japan has stepped up its“Indo–Pacific”strategy,which may influence global development,undermine regional maritime security,and impede China's reunification process.Meanwhile,Japan's“Indo–Pacific”strategy faces the triple challenge of a strategic overdraft,the unstable economic foundations,and the weak external support.These constraints may not suffice to reverse the direction of Japan's“Indo–Pacific”strategy in the short term but will limit its effectiveness.

Anthropogenic footprints are invading global habitats of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins

As ecologically fragile areas,coastal zones are affected by both anthropogenic activities and climate change.However,the impacts of these factors on large nearshore mammals,such as Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins(IPHDs,Sousa chinensis),are poorly understood.Here,modeling revealed that the suitable habitats of IPHDs are affected mainly by the sea surface temperature(SST),and the habitat suitability decreases as the distance to the nearest coastline increases.In addition,anthropogenic activities involving demersal fishing,contamination and shipping have narrowed IPHD habitats and reduced the habitat suitability.We found that climate change will further narrow suitable habitats located farther than 7 km from coastlines and trigger habitat losses in the eastern Taiwan Strait by 2090-2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)8.5 scenario.The projected decreases in habitat suitability and area emphasize the urgency of establishing connected marine protected areas(MPAs)while considering climate change,intergovernmental cooperation,and public involvement.

The Adjustment of NATO’s Space Policy and Its Implications

Under the US leadership,NATO has been adjusting its space policy and strengthening its space deterrence capabilities to address the so-called“threat”from China and Russia.While the deterrent effect of NATO’s space policy remains to be seen,the various measures taken to implement the policy will have a considerable impact on the global space landscape,accelerating the weaponization of space and making it more difficult to prevent an arms race in space and govern space security.

Major-Countries Competition and Pivot to the Asia-Pacific:the Strategic Transformation and Influence of“Global NATO”

As a product of the Cold War,NATO did not disintegrate with the end of it,but rather,it has sought to become“global NATO”through continuous expansion and transformation,in order to hold wider sway in international security.In its 75-year history,NATO has made numerous moves including adopting confrontational security thinking,building exclusive alliances,conducting humanitarian intervention and crisis management,expanding eastward and northward and involving in the Asia-Pacific.

The Emerging Trend Toward“Alliance”:New Changes in EU-NATO Relations Under Strategic Autonomy

The European Union’s foreign and security policy has come into being and developed in the process of European integration.It’s influenced by both internal and external factors.After the international financial crisis in 2008,the return of major country competition coupled with the EU’s internal challenges has pushed the EU to adjust and reform its foreign and security policy.A Global Strategy for EU Foreign and Security Policy,released in 2016,advocates“European strategic autonomy”and reshapes the EU foreign and security policy at the level of concepts,capacity building and operation.In recent years,along with the geopolitical shift in EU power,its foreign and security policy has shown new features such as the orientation to major country competition and the strengthening of EU-US and EU-NATO cooperation.

Variation of Indo-Pacific upper ocean heat content during 2001–2012 revealed by Argo

Understanding of the temporal variation of oceanic heat content （OHC） is of fundamental importance to the prediction of climate change and associated global meteorological phenomena. However, OHC characteristics in the Pacific and Indian oceans are not well understood. Based on in situ ocean temperature and salinity profiles mainly from the Argo program, we estimated the upper layer （0-750 m） OHC in the Indo-Pacific Ocean （40°S-40°N, 30°E-80°W）. Spatial and temporal variability of OHC and its likely physical mechanisms are also analyzed. Climatic distributions of upper-layer OHC in the Indian and Pacific oceans have a similar saddle pattern in the subtropics, and the highest OHC value was in the northern Arabian Sea. However, OHC variabilities in the two oceans were different. OHC in the Pacific has an east-west see-saw pattern, which does not appear in the Indian Ocean. In the Indian Ocean, the largest change was around 10°S. The most interesting phenomenon is that, there was a long-term shift of OHC in the Indo-Pacific Ocean during 2001-2012. Such variation coincided with modulation of subsurface temperature/salinity. During 2001-2007, there was subsurface cooling （freshening） nearly the entire upper 400 m layer in the western Pacific and warming （salting） in the eastern Pacific. During 2008-2012, the thermocline deepened in the western Pacific but shoaled in the east. In the Indian Ocean, there was only cooling （upper 150 m only） and freshening （almost the entire upper 400 m） during 2001-2007. The thermocline deepened during 2008-2012 in the Indian Ocean. Such change appeared from the equator to off the equator and even to the subtropics （about 20°N/S） in the two oceans. This long-term change of subsurface temperature/salinity may have been caused by change of the wind field over the two oceans during 2001-2012, in turn modifying OHC.

Boreal Winter Rainfall Anomaly over the Tropical Indo-Pacific and Its Effect on Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Models

Experimental outputs of 11 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （AMIP） models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） are analyzed to assess the atmospheric circulation anomaly over Northern Hemisphere induced by the anomalous rainfall over tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean during boreal winter.The analysis shows that the main features of the interannual variation of tropical rainfall anomalies,especially over the Central Pacific （CP） （5°S-5°N,175°E-135°W） and Indo-western Pacific （IWP） （20°S-20°N,110°-150°E） are well captured in all the CMIP5/AMIP models.For the IWP and western Indian Ocean （WIO） （10°S-10°N,45°-75°E）,the anomalous rainfall is weaker in the 11 CMIP5/AMIP models than in the observation.During El Ni（n）o/La Ni（n）a mature phases in boreal winter,consistent with observations,there are geopotential height anomalies known as the Pacific North American （PNA） pattern and Indo-western Pacific and East Asia （IWPEA） pattern in the upper troposphere,and the northwestern Pacific anticyclone （cyclone） （NWPA） in the lower troposphere in the models.Comparison between the models and observations shows that the ability to simulate the PNA and NWPA pattern depends on the ability to simulate the anomalous rainfall over the CP,while the ability to simulate the IWPEA pattern is related to the ability to simulate the rainfall anomaly in the IWP and WIO,as the SST anomaly is same in AMIP experiments.It is found that the tropical rainfall anomaly is important in modeling the impact of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean on the extratropical atmospheric circulation anomaly.

Japan-UK Security Cooperation in the Context of the Convergence of the Indo-Pacific Strategy and Global Britain

Japan-UK security cooperation has been deepening as the Indo-Pacific Strategy has converged with Global Britain,which has become strongly Indo-Pacific-oriented.In terms of their cooperation on security,the two countries have close security interactions,high-level security consultations,numerous mechanisms on security cooperation,frequent defense cooperation and exchanges between forces,and cooperation geared at a response to the Korean nuclear issue.In particular,Japan and the UK regard Indo-Pacific security as the strategic focus of their cooperation,and this underscores the rules-based international order.There are multiple motivations for Japan and the UK to strengthen their security cooperation,and the deepening of their security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region is to a great extent due to strategic factors,including responding to the US strategic adjustment,Japan and Britain’s respective proactive strategic demands,the improving strategic positions of the Indopacific region,their seeking to shape the regional order in the Indo-Pacific,and so on.Despite facing challenges,Japan-UK security cooperation is continuously strengthening against a background of deepening strategic convergence between the two countries and great power competition.

India and the Indo-Pacific Strategy Vision： Orientation, Involvement and Limits

In 2017, the Trump administration formally articulated its vision for the Indo-Pacific strategy, replacing "Asia-Pacific" with"Indo-Pacific"in policy papers and taking measures to promote the realization of an "Indo-Pacific dream". This represents a significant adjustment in US regional policies. An important power in the Indian Ocean region, India is perceived as key to the successful implementation of this Indo-Pacific strategy. Generally speaking, the current Indian government and strategy circle actively support the upgrading of the"Indo-Pacific"concept from a geographical and academic term to a US vision for foreign strategies, anticipating that India could garner significant strategic benefits from it. Given this, New Delhi will continually adapt its foreign policies to the US Indo-Pacific strategy and may even direct the development of the strategy to counter the Belt and Road Initiative, work with other nations to balance China's influence and finally make the rise of India as a great power a reality. Nonetheless, the Indo-pacific strategy is in its early stages, and the content is not completely pro-India currently. On top of this India is still skeptical of the US and will proceed cautiously, leaving room for maneuver in the future,fully tapping into the benefits of the Indo-Pacific strategy and avoiding direct confrontation with China.

A HOMOGENEOUS MODEL OF UPPER LAYER CIRCULATION IN INDO-PACIFIC REGION

A homogeneous model is proposed to study the upper layer circulation in the Indo-Pacific region,the sources of the Indonesian throughflow (TF) and the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), and the relations of the the with the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the South Equatorial Current (SEC). The results revealed that the upper layer circulaton, as part of the Pacific Ocean general circulation, is mainly controlled by geostrophic balance; that the NECC’s volume transport is mainly sup plied by the NEC, and its variation has closer relation to the NEC than the SEC; that the TF, whose volume transport is jointly supplied by the NEC through the Mindanao Current (MC) and the SEC, with the NEC being the first source, has significant influence on the circulation structure; and that a large Celebes Sea cyclonic circulation not mentioned elsewhere so far, exists in the calculated results.

Upper Ocean Hydrology in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool During the Late Holocene,Early Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum

We examined sediment samples from twenty-four stations in the Indo-Pacific warm pool(IPWP)region. Our objective is to provide a better understanding of changes in the IPWP and related tropical climatic phenomena such as East Asian-Australian monsoon and El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),through improving spatial coverage of proxy records.In order

India＇ s Advance East Strategy and Its Indo-Pacific Diplomacy

India's eastward advancement began in the early 1990s. It was then called the"Look East"policy, and was later upgraded in name to the"Act East"policy in 2014. Over the past 25 years, India's"Advance East"strategy has continued to expand, undergoing a compound evolution and upgrade from economy to security, from bilateral to multilateral, from the ASEAN region to East Asia and further onto the Asia-Pacific region,which has been reflected in the rise in India's national strength and regional influence, more and more become an important pillar in India's diplomatic strategy. Nonetheless, the traditional development trends of India's eastward advancement are being affected by the newly emerging Indo-Pacific diplomacy strategies and achievements. India's Indo-Pacific diplomacy was born out of its Advance East strategy, though not limited to advancement east; the core demand of India has always been to merge into the Asia-Pacific region. In other words, India's Advance East strategy is an important pivot for its Indo-Pacific diplomacy. The reliance of India's Indo-Pacific diplomacy on major power diplomacy has impacted the core position of ASEAN in its Advance East strategy, while the element of containing China in India's Indo-Pacific diplomacy will dilute its intention to cooperate with China. This is also manifested in its Advance East strategy.

The Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States from Russia’s Strategic Perspective

The Trump administration of the United States has accelerated the advancement of the‘‘open and free Indo-Pacific’,strategy since 2017.From a geopolitical point of view and in terms of its national interests,Russia has generally been critical of this strategy,believing it has posed certain challenges to its“Pivot to the East”strategy.Meanwhile,Russia is rejoicing for not being the primary target of US containment in the region and has sensed a new opportunity for exercising its Asia-Pacific diplomacy in the context of the Indo-Pacific strategy.Based on this situation,Russia has made a flexible and pragmatic policy response to it.However,Russia will inevitably face many restraints.In the future,Russia will seek to maximize its strategic interests on the basis of adhering to its inherent principles of Asia-Pacific diplomacy.

Motivations and Impacts of the ROK’s Deepening Relations with NATO

In June 2022,President of the Republic of Korea(ROK)Yoon Suk-yeol,only one month into his office,attended the summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO)in Madrid,the first time for the country’s head of state,and announced the establishment of a permanent mission to NATO on the occasion.

A New Northern Flank: Sweden and Finland in NATO

On June 282022 Sweden and Finland were invited to join NATO.During a symbolic ceremony at the NATO Madrid Summit,all the central actors gathered in front of the cameras,as if to replicate a“family photo”in mini format:representatives from Sweden,Finland,and Turkey,as well as Secretary General Stoltenberg.The atmosphere was mixed:tense because of the dramatic backdrop of the Summit,relief because of the speedy process that had taken the process further.It was finally happening:Sweden and Finland would join the Atlantic Pact.But how did they get there?Over a few hectic months,two countries strongly associated with neutrality had moved their policies from emphasizing continuity to altering the very foundations of their security.Not only NATO critics were taken by surprise.Many NATO supporters were astonished by the rapid pace and the turnaround of the Swedish Social Democratic party.The relatively quick turnaround in Stockholm also meant that questions about the future and the consequences of NATO membership were postponed,not least because the Swedish election campaign put a lid on debate about strategic consequences:what journey awaits in the future and what strategic consequences does a future NATO membership have?This article discusses these questions in the belief that the temporal perspectives are connected:Sweden’s historical collaboration with NATO had significance for the country’s partner relationship,and in turn this influenced how Sweden became a member and what challenges the country faces together with its allies on a new northern flank in Europe.

Geopolitical Analysis of the Entry of Finland and Sweden to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO)

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has significantly altered the pattern of alliances and geopolitical balances on the European continent to such an extent that countries like Finland and Sweden that have traditionally remained neutral are now applying to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO).These two countries fear that Russia,which is currently trying to reposition itself,could try in the near future to invade these two Nordic countries to prevent the West(European Union,United Kingdom,and United States)from increasing its military presence and its military force in the Scandinavian peninsula and in the Baltic Sea.The enlargement that the European Union(EU)has carried out since the 1990s,and that has also meant the expansion of NATO,has been viewed with great concern by the government of Vladimir Putin,who considers that the United States and the European Union did not fulfill their commitment to former Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev to respect the sphere of influence of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics(USSR).Within the framework of this geopolitical confrontation,Helsinki and Stockholm do not want to run the risk of being invaded by the Russian army,which is why they seek to take advantage of the principle of collective security that NATO membership would grant them.

北约印太转向:战略逻辑演进、新动向与前景

近年来,在中美战略竞争深化和俄乌冲突两大战略背景下,在美国压力下,北约积极推动印太转向。北约不仅视中国为“系统性挑战”,强调“印太地区对北约重要”和欧亚安全不可分割,还高度“关切”印太海洋安全,加强与日本、韩国、澳大利亚和新西兰“印太四国”机制化联系,推进防务及新兴科技领域务实合作。这一基于“一体化威慑”战略逻辑的北约印太转向,与20世纪90年代及“9·11”事件后基于“合作安全”的战略逻辑大异其趣,表现出新形势下北约印太转向的新动向与新特点。展望未来,受制于北约核心战略利益、军事能力、北约内部分歧及美国国内政治变化等诸多因素限制,北约印太转向始终存在“天花板”,也具有较大不确定性。

北约战略传播政策发展历程与启示

为深入探讨北约基于冷战后军事行动经验教训及对国际战略形势研判而形成的战略传播理念,通过文献研究法,回顾北约自20世纪90年代以来有关战略传播政策的发展历程,总结梳理出4个阶段的主要进展,分析其内在发展逻辑和现实考虑。总结得出北约战略传播理论与政策发展的5个特点,并从加强理论探索、加强主体协同、加强受众研究、加强政策文件的制定完善以及加强科技手段的应用创新等5个方面提出了启示建议。

日本与北约合作的特点、动因及前景

2008年日本成为北约全球伙伴国,由此正式开启了日本北约合作进程。日本与北约合作呈现出合作走向机制化、突显价值观安全化、开展多领域实质性合作、注重加强互操作性的特点。日本北约合作的成因,从总体来看,双方合作存在共同战略利益,日本希望借助北约实现军事大国化目标,遏制中国;北约则要推动亚太化,拉拢日本应对所谓中国、朝鲜的挑战。