Assessment of the spatial extent of permafrost in the Upper Indus Basin(UIB)

Climate change differentially influences the frozen ground,a major dynamic component of the cryosphere,on a local and regional scale.Under the warming climate with pronounced effects reported at higher altitudes,the characterization of the frozen ground is very important in the Upper Indus Basin(UIB),an important and critical region with respect to climate and hydro-glaciological dynamics.In this study,the efficiency and reliability of the surface frost number model are assessed in delineating the spatial extent of different classes of frozen ground in the region.The daily MODIS land surface temperature(LST)with ground surface temperature(GST)and surface geomorphological expressions as ground validation datasets are used jointly in efficiently determining the extent of different classes of frozen ground(continuous and discontinuous permafrost and seasonal frost).The LST and GST resonate with each other in the annual cycle of temperature variation,however,with mean annual LST exhibiting an offset(cold bias)of 5 to 7℃relative to mean GST.This study shows that the highest permafrost extent is observed in areas where the lowest thinning rates of glacier ice are reported and vice versa.The surface frost number model categorizes an area of 38%±3%and 15%±3%in the UIB as permafrost and seasonal frost,respectively.Based on the altitude model,the lower limit of alpine permafrost is approximated at a mean altitude of 4919±590 m a.s.l.in the UIB.The present study acts as preliminary work in the data sparse and inaccessible regions of the UIB in characterizing the frozen and unfrozen ground and may act as a promising input data source in glaciohydro-meteorological models for the Himalaya and Karakoram.In addition,the study also underlines the consideration of this derelict cryospheric climatic variable in defining and accounting for the sustainable development of socio-economic systems through its intricate ramification on agricultural activity,landscape stability and infrastructure.

Mineralogy and element geochemistry of the Sohnari rocks of Early Eocene Laki Formation in the Southern Indus Basin,Pakistan:Implications for paleoclimate,paleoweathering and paleoredox conditions

The Sohnari Member of the Early Eocene Laki Formation is massively deposited in the Southern Indus Basin of Pakistan and is considered a potential source rock to generate hydrocarbons.However,the detailed paleoclimatic,paleoweathering,and depositional conditions of the Sohnari Member have not been studied earlier.This research mainly discusses the detailed mineralogical(bulk and clay)and elemental geochemistry of the Laki Formation from two outcrop sections(Jhimpir and Lakhra)in the Southern Indus Basin,Pakistan.The bulk minerals,including quartz(low),hematite,calcite,halite,gypsum,and clay minerals such as kaolinite,chlorite,smectite and illite have been discussed here.These results demonstrate the paleo-environment of studied area was arid with enhanced saline and weak to strong oxidizing depositional conditions.The chemical index of alteration(CIA)values in Jhimpir and Lakhra sections are in the ranges of 41.30-97.93 and 22.30-96.19,respectively,indicating that the Sohnari sediments experienced weak to intense chemical weathering in the source area.The interpretation of the A-CN-K ternary diagram is consistent with the clay mineral contents in the studied sediments,which is characterized by the predominance of kaolinite,gibbsite and chlorite,demonstrating the weak to strong weathering state under warm and humid climatic conditions.The chemical indices such as Sr/Ba,δU,V/Cr,Ni/Co,and Cu/Zn,U/Th and Ba/Ga show that Sohnari rocks of Early Eocene Laki Formation underwent strong evaporation,oxic water column with warm to humid and minor contact of cold climatic conditions.Based on our present data,it can be concluded that the sediments of Sohnari Member of Laki Formation from Jhimpir and Lakhra areas of Southern Indus Basin in Pakistan are related to Indio-Eurasian collision and came from the Indian shield rocks that were deposited in a brackish water body with a minor contact of the freshwater oxidizing paleo-environment depositional conditions.

A Glance on the Mineral Deposits and Stratigraphic Sequential Variations and Structures in Different Sections of Indus Basin (Pakistan): New Titanosaurian Sauropod Dinosaurs from the Latest Maastrichtian Vitakri Formation of Pakistan

Indus basin hosts many significant mineral deposits like gypsum and cement raw materials, gemstones, iron, coal, marble, dimension and construction stones, petroleum and water resources, world class pink salt and other many minerals in different regions which need further exploitation and development. The construction of new water dams in different regions are vital (for availability of cheap electricity), because of available barren and fertile lands and wastage of water as flood. Further the installation of more cement industries in different regions of Indus Basin especially in middle Indus (Sulaiman Range where gypsum, clays and limestones can be available via belt) can increase export to receive more foreign exchange and make local cement cheap for the sustainable development of Pakistan. 31 stratigraphic sequential sections at different sections of Indus basins are presented to know the variation and local stratigraphy. Further here three new titanosaur taxa are being described. Saraikimasoom is based on snout;Gspsaurus, (Maojandino), Nicksaurus and Khanazeem are based on cranial, vertebral and appendicular elements;Balochisaurus, Marisaurus, Pakisaurus, and 3 new genera and species Imrankhanhero zilefatmi, Qaikshaheen masoomniazi and Ikqaumishan smqureshi based on vertebral and appendicular elements;and Sulaimanisaurus and Khetranisaurus based on only caudal vertebrae. Although Pakistani Titanosaurians seem to be proliferated found from one horizon of Vitakri Formation just below the K-Pg boundary they have a wide range of diagnostic features and key elements among titanosaurs which can be used for comparison and phylogenetic analyses with broad updated character data set of titanosaurs.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agro-Ecosystems and Their Contribution to Environmental Change in the Indus Basin of Pakistan

There is growing concern that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been responsible for global warming through their effect on radiation balance and temperature. The magnitude of emissions and the relative importance of different sources vary widely, regionally and locally. The Indus Basin of Pakistan is the food basket of the country and agricultural activities are vulnerable to the effects of global warming due to accelerated emissions of GHGs. Many developments have taken place in the agricultural sector of Pakistan in recent decades in the background of the changing role of the government and the encouragement of the private sector for investment in new ventures. These interventions have considerable GHG emission potential. Unfortunately, no published information is currently available on GHG concentrations in the Indus Basin to assess their magnitude and emission trends. The present study is an attempt to estimate GHG （CO2, CH4 and N2O） emissions arising from different agro-ecosystems of Indus Basin. The GHGs were estimated mostly using the IPCC Guidelines and data from the published literature. The results showed that CH4 emissions were the highest （4.126 Tg yr^-1） followed by N20 （0.265 Tg yr^-1） and CO2 （52.6 Tg yr^-1）. The sources of CH4 are enteric fermentation, rice cultivation and cultivation of other crops. N2O is formed by microbial denitrification of NO3 produced from applied fertilizer-N on cropped soils or by mineralization of native organic matter on fallow soils. CO2 is formed by the burning of plant residue and by soil respiration due to the decomposition of soil organic matter.

Geochemistry and Depositional Setting of Fort Munro Formation,Middle and Lower Indus Basins,Pakistan

Fort Munro Formation represents the products of the Upper Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) in the middle and lower Indus basins. The formation is exposed in the Rakhi Nala (Sulaiman Range), Bara Nala (Lakhi Range) and Naka Pabni (Southern Pab Range) areas. Major and trace elemental geochemistry and petrographic studies of the formation have been carried out to understand the facies trends in the middle and lower Indus basins. A high amount of acid-insoluble fraction, Ca/Mg and Mg vs. Ca/Sr ratio reveal that the formation was deposited in a shallow marine regressive environment. High amounts of clastic reflect abundant influx of terrigenous materials from the east (Indian craton) and west (Bibai volcanic). High Sr content indicates that aragonite was the precursor mineral, which was transformed into stable low-Mg calcite during diagenesis. Enrichment of Cu and Zn contents in the samples of the formation implies the influence of volcanic activity and that they were incorporated into the calcite lattice in the late phase.

Exploration prospects of oil and gas in the Northwestern part of the Offshore Indus Basin, Pakistan

Oil and gas resources are short in Pakistan and no commercially viable oil and gas sources have been yet discovered in its offshore areas up to now.In this study,the onshore-offshore stratigraphic correlation and seismic data interpretation were conducted to determine the oil and gas resource potential in the Offshore Indus Basin,Pakistan.Based on the comprehensive analysis of the results and previous data,it is considered that the Cretaceous may widely exist and three sets of source rocks may be developed in the Offshore Indus Basin.The presence of Miocene mudstones has been proven by drilling to be high-quality source rocks,while the Cretaceous and Paleocene–Eocene mudstones are potential source rocks.Tectonic-lithologic traps are developed in the northwestern part of the basin affected by the strike-slip faults along Murray Ridge.Furthermore,the Cretaceous and Paleocene–Eocene source rocks are thick and are slightly affected by volcanic activities.Therefore,it can be inferred that the northwestern part of Offshore Indus Basin enjoys good prospects of oil and gas resources.

Modelling the Spatial Distribution of Arsenic in Water and Its Correlation with Public Health, Central Indus Basin, Pakistan

Like India, Bangladesh and China, Pakistan also has some regions where concentration of Arsenic in water has crossed the WHO safe drinking water limits, 10 ppb. Presence of Arsenic in drinking water is causing serious human health issues for the local residents of Sindh and southern Punjab, which needs serious attention. The present study is focused on the spatial distribution of Arsenic in groundwater and its relationship with the major reported human diseases at settlement level of District Layyah. Data collection is done by taking water samples from hand pumps and health issues reported at the local health care centers adjoining to that sampling pump. The spatial distribution of Arsenic concentration in groundwater is done by using Inversion Distance Weight (IDW) technique. Arsenic Risk Index (ARI) is developed based of WHO health standards, and then used to divide study area into two Arsenic Risk Zones as no risk and high risk with As values less or equal to 10 ng·ml-1 and greater than 10 ng·ml-1, respectively . In the final step these zones were correlated with the diseases at village level. The results show that, Arsenic is high near the Indus River and it decreases in central and eastern parts towards Chenab River. Same trend of Indo-Chenab Arsenic gradient is followed by skin diseases among the people especially, in tehsil Layyah and tehsil Koror. It is concluded that high Arsenic amount in water and skin diseases are highly dependent on the recharge from Indus River.

Possible origin of inert gases in hydrocarbon reservoir pools of the Zindapir Anticlinorium and its surroundings in the Middle Indus Basin, Pakistan

The natural gas in several gas fields in Pakistan is associated with varying percentages of inert gases（e.g.,CO;, N;, and H;S）. The heating capacity of such natural gas is measured in British thermal units（BTU） in Pakistan and is based on the combustion of the natural gases. The study area of this work belongs to the Middle Indus Basin, which also covers some parts of the Sulaiman Foldbelt and the Punjab Platform.Petroleum wells drilled in the study area contain inert gases（mostly CO;and N;） in varying percentages,which decreases the BTU value of sweet gases and the economic value of the gas reserves.Attempts were made to analyze the varying compositions of inert gases（mostly CO;and N;） along the deep-seated basement faults in the Zindapir Anticlinorium, eastern Sulaiman Foldbelt, but no specific relation could be established. Similarly, geothermal gradient zones were identified and the distribution of inert gases in these zones was studied, but even so, no well-established relation could be tracked.However, variations in the amounts of inert gases in the Chiltan Limestone of the Rodho Structure and the Afiband Structure point to the generation of in situ inert gases because both wells were drilled on the same anticlinorium and share the same geology, and possibly, the same source rock. Post-accumulation changes probably play an important role in the generation of in situ inert gases in varying concentrations.H;S is also present in some parts of the Indus Basin. Therefore, a brief discussion about the possible origin of the H;S is also included in this paper.

Diagenetic history and porosity evolution of the Middle Permian clastic-carbonate mixed system,Indus Basin,Pakistan:Implications for reservoir development

This study deals with unraveling the diagenesis-induced porosity evolution in a mixed clastic-carbonate sequence of the Middle Permian Indus Basin,Pakistan.Multiple data sets including outcrop,petrography,cathodoluminescence,scanning electron microscopy(SEM),mineralogy,and geochemical isotopic compositions were integrated to establish a link between porosity evolution and diagenesis.The spatial thickness and facies variations of the strata at outcrop scale are inherently controlled by the underlying bathymetry of the basin with deepening westward trend.The low values ofδ^(18)O of the target strata,relative to average values of the Permian carbonate,hints to diagenetic alteration in the strata.The data sets used in this study reveal modification of the strata in four environments,that is,i)early marine diagenesis indicated by micritization,pervasive dolomitization and isopachous fibrous cements,followed by ii)meteoric dissolution,and iii)shallow burial diagenetic processes including the precipitation of blocky cement,compaction of skeletal and non-skeletal allochems,and stylolites,and iv)a deep burial environment,characterized by pressure solution,and micro-fractures.The clastic intervals host subangular to subrounded quartz grains,floating textures,and almost complete absence of deleterious clay minerals,consequently resulting in the preservation of primary porosity.The primary porosity of carbonate intervals is preserved in the form of intercrystalline and intracrystalline porosity.The secondary porosity evolved through various diagenetic phases in the form of fractures and dissolution.The diagenetic solution mediated by organic matter in carbonates may have experienced both bacterial decomposition and thermochemical sulfate reduction,precipitating sulfides within the pores.The plug porosity/permeability analyses generally suggest high porosity in the siliciclastic unit,and carbonates with wackestone fabric while lower values were observed for the inner shelf pure carbonate facies.However,both intervals show very low permeability values probably due to isolated moldic pores and intense micritization.Therefore,clastic intervals may provide an opportunity to serve as a moderate reservoir;however,the carbonate intervals possess very low permeability values and could generally be considered as low-moderate reservoir potential.

Decadal trends in precipitable water vapor over the Indus River Basin using ERA5 reanalysis data

Precipitable Water Vapor(PWV)constitutes a pivotal parameter within the domains of atmospheric science,and remote sensing due to its profound influence on Earth’s climate dynamics and weather patterns.It exerts a significant impact on atmospheric stability absorption and emission of radiation,thus engendering alterations in the Earth’s radiative equilibrium.As such,precise quantification of PWV holds the potential to enhance weather prognostication and fortify preparedness against severe meteorological phenomena.This study aimed to elucidate the spatial and temporal changes in seasonal and annual PWV across the Indus River Basin and its sub-basins using ERA5 reanalysis datasets.The present study used ERA5 PWV(entire atmospheric column),air temperature at 2 m(t2m)and 500 hPa(T_500hPa),evapotranspiration,and total cloud cover data from 1960 to 2021.Theil Sen slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test were used for trend analysis.Correlation and multiple regression methods were used to understand the association of PWV with other factors.The findings have unveiled the highest increase in mean PWV during the monsoon(0.40 mm/decade),followed by premonsoon(0.37 mm/decade),post-monsoon(0.27 mm/decade),and winter(0.19 mm/decade)throughout the study period.Additionally,the mean PWV exhibited the most pronounced positive trend in the sub-basin Lower Indus(LI),followed by Panjnad(P),Kabul(K),and Upper Indus(UI)across all seasons,except winter.Annual PWV has also risen in the Indus basin and its sub-basins over the last six decades.PWV exhibits a consistent upward trend up to an elevation of 3500 m within the basin which is most pronounced during the monsoon season,followed by the pre-monsoon.The escalating PWV within the basin is reasonably ascribed to increasing air temperatures,augmented evapotranspiration,and heightened cloud cover.These findings hold potential utility for pertinent authorities engaged in water resource management and planning.

Evaluating spatial and elevation-wise daytime/nighttime LST trends across the Indus River Basin

Land surface temperature(LST)is a crucial parameter for understanding the Earth's surface energy balance,which provides insights into climate dynamics and local environmental conditions.Thus,the present study aims to evaluate the spatial and elevation-wise trends in the daytime,nighttime,and mean LST across the Indus River Basin(IRB)using MODIS 8-day product for the period between 2002 and 2022.The elevation,cloud cover,and land cover type data are used for explaining the emerging LST trends.The Theil slope estimator and MannKendall significance test were used for estimating the seasonal and annual LST trends.The findings show warming in mean daytime(0.020-0.024℃/yr)(except winter and post-monsoon),nighttime(0.013-0.049℃/yr),and mean(0.001-0.042℃/yr)LST in all the seasons(highest in monsoon).The annual mean nighttime LST(0.025℃/yr)is rising significantly faster than the mean daytime LST(0.0016℃/yr),showing the presence of a“nighttime warming effect”,which possibly increases human discomfort,particularly during the warm pre-monsoon and humid monsoon season.Elevation-dependent warming(EDW)is predominant in mean daytime LST in two elevation zones,namely(i)0-3 km and(ii)above 4 km,in all seasons,except in post-monsoon.In contrast,EDW in mean nighttime LST is observed up to 3 km and above 6 km in the basin in all the seasons,excluding post-monsoon.The warming trend in LST may be attributed to rising atmospheric moisture,cloud cover,declining snow cover,and changes in land cover to non-vegetated land.However,further investigations will involve exploring the underlying factors contributing to the observed anomalies in nighttime LST,considering variables such as regional energy balance and atmospheric stability.This research contributes to an understanding of the thermal dynamics in the mountain basin,aiding in climate studies,land management,and the development of effective adaptation strategies in the IRB.

Identification of Hydrocarbon Potential of Talhar Shale: Member of Lower Goru Formation Using Well Logs Derived Parameters, Southern Lower Indus Basin, Pakistan

Using well logs data only, the evaluation of shale gas hydrocarbon potential of Talhar Shale Member of Lower Goru Formation has been a challenge in Southern Lower Indus Basin in Pakistan. Well logs data analysis is helpful to evaluate the gas potential of source shale rocks. We introduced and applied empirical and graphical method to fulfil this task and derived geochemical parameters from well logs data. The method mentioned is cheap and fast. Talhar Shale has kerogen type Ⅲ and type Ⅱ which are montmorillonite clay and have potential to produce oil and gas. Talhar Shale has better sorption property. Empirical formulas are used to derive parameters, using well logs of porosity, density and uranium. Porosity and volume of kerogen, calculated from density log, give average values of 11.8% and 11.4%. Average value of level of maturity index （LMI） derived from log is 0.54, which indicates that it is at the early stage of maturity. Vitrinite reflectance is between 0.5%-0.55% as calculated by graphical method and empirical formula. Talhar Shale is at onset of oil generation, with main products of oil and gas. It is a good potential source in the study area.

Geochemical investigation of low latitude black shale intervals of the Lower to Middle Jurassic succession, Indus Basin, Pakistan

The Lower to Middle Jurassic sedimentary succession is dominated by siliciclastics with a significant amount of black shales in the Indus Basin,Pakistan.Several outcrop samples have been studied using an integrated approach to interpret the conceptual depositional setting from carbon and oxygen isotopes(δ^(13)C&δ18O),organic geochemistry,and palynofacies with major and trace element analysis.For interpretation of trace element data,various single and elemental ratios have been used in this research to unlock the geological history of the studied strata.Ti/Al is 1.96 for high-potential source rock and 7.82 for non-potential source rock,and Cr(less than 1)indicates low clastic input with low oxygen for stratified and stagnant water.The ratios of V/(V+Cr),V/(V+Ni),V/Mo,V/Ni,(Cu+Mo)/Zn,Mo/Al,isotopic values ofδ^(13)C andδ18O and besides the V/Cr elemental ratio,all proxies indicate that there are oxygen-depleted anoxic conditions at high potentials,while in non-potential source rock,these ratios show oxic to sub-oxic settings.In addition to the trace element correlation with total organic carbon,the influx of organic matter is determined by the palynoafacies analysis,which indicates mixed terrestrial and marine organic influx in high-potential source rock and vice versa.Furthermore,the studies of palynofaceis DFPF A-D and SFPF A-B suggest that the depositional setting of black shale occurred in the anoxic proximal to distal shelf.The results suggest that the regional and local occurrence of black shale during the Lower to Middle Jurassic and its geological condition were addressed,and these play an important role in its depositional and paleooceanographic setting in the Eastern Tethys.

Generation of a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for the rTjSj-Upper Indus Basin(UIB)through temporal Reconstruction,Correction I sag&Informed Regionalization-“ReCIR”

This study attempted to generate a long-term(1961-2010)daily gridded precipitation dataset for the Upper Indus Basin(UIB)with orographic adjustments so as to generate realistic precipitation estimates,enabling hydrological and water resource investigations that can close the water balance,that is difficult,if not impossible to achieve with the currently available precipitation data products for the basin.The procedure includes temporal reconstruction of precipitation series at points where data were not recorded prior to the mid-nineties,followed by a regionalization of the precipitation series to a smaller scale across the basin(0.125°x 0.125°),while introducing adjustments for the orographic effect and changes in glacier storage.The reconstruction process involves interpolation of the precipitation at virtual locations of the current(1995-)dense observational network,followed by corrections for frequency and intensity and adjustments for temporal trends at these virtual locations.The data generated in this way were further validated for temporal and spatial representativeness through evaluation of SWAT-modelled streamflow responses against observed flows across the UIB.The results show that the calibrated SWAT-simulated daily discharge at the basin outlet as well as at different sub-basin outlets,when forcing the model with the reconstructed precipitation of years 1973—1996,is almost identical to that when forcing it with the reference precipitation data(1997-2008).Finally,the spatial distribution pattern of the reconstructed(1961—1996)and reference(1997—2008)precipitation were also found consistent across the UIB,reflecting well the large-scale atmospheric-circulation pattern in the region.

Hydrological response under CMIP6 climate projection in Astore River Basin,Pakistan

Climate change strongly influences the available water resources in a watershed due to direct linkage of atmospheric driving forces and changes in watershed hydrological processes.Understanding how these climatic changes affect watershed hydrology is essential for human society and environmental processes.Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)dataset of three GCM's(BCC-CSM2-MR,INM-CM5-0,and MPIESM1-2-HR)with resolution of 100 km has been analyzed to examine the projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the Astore catchment during 2020-2070.Bias correction method was used to reduce errors.In this study,statistical significance of trends was performed by using the Man-Kendall test.Sen's estimator determined the magnitude of the trend on both seasonal and annual scales at Rama Rattu and Astore stations.MPI-ESM1-2-HR showed better results with coefficient of determination(COD)ranging from 0.70-0.74 for precipitation and 0.90-0.92 for maximum and minimum temperature at Astore,Rama,and Rattu followed by INM-CM5-0 and BCC-CSM2-MR.University of British Columbia Watershed model was used to attain the future hydrological series and to analyze the hydrological response of Astore River Basin to climate change.Results revealed that by the end of the 2070s,average annual precipitation is projected to increase up to 26.55%under the SSP1-2.6,6.91%under SSP2-4.5,and decrease up to 21.62%under the SSP5-8.5.Precipitation also showed considerable variability during summer and winter.The projected temperature showed an increasing trend that may cause melting of glaciers.The projected increase in temperature ranges from-0.66℃ to 0.50℃,0.9℃ to 1.5℃ and 1.18℃ to 2℃ under the scenarios of SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively.Simulated streamflows presented a slight increase by all scenarios.Maximum streamflow was generated under SSP5-8.5 followed by SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6.The snowmelt and groundwater contributions to streamflow have decreased whereas rainfall and glacier melt components have increased on the other hand.The projected streamflows(2020-2070)compared to the control period(1990-2014)showed a reduction of 3%-11%,2%-9%,and 1%-7%by SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5,respectively.The results revealed detailed insights into the performance of three GCMs,which can serve as a blueprint for regional policymaking and be expanded upon to establish adaption measures.

Evaluation of soil loss severity and ecological restoration approach for sustainable agriculture in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya region

Soil erosion has resulted in removal of the topsoils containing fine soil particles and plant nutrients, causing decrease in soil fertility in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya(HKH) region. The existing production of cereal crop grains has been reduced to one third of the potential crop grains production owing to land degradation and poor farming practices. It is necessary to assess risk of soil loss and identify appropriate controlling measures to address issues of low agriculture productivity and water insecurity in the region. In the present study, severity of soil loss was predicted using Revised Universal Loss Equation(RUSLE) and ecological measures were identified for sustainable mountain agriculture in the HKH region of Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan. Overall 62.6% area was found to have very low risk of soil loss, i.e., <5 t/(ha·yr), 15.8% area low risk, i.e., 5-25 t/(ha·yr) and 7.5% area moderate risk, i.e., 25-50 t/(ha·yr) in the region. The risk was high, i.e., 50-100 t/(ha·yr) and very high, i.e., >100 t/(ha·yr) in about 6.8% and 7.4% areas respectively. The mean rate of soil loss was about 41.9 t/(ha·yr) in the Hindu Kush, 31.1 t/(ha·yr) in the Himalayas, 18.8 t/(ha·yr) in the Karakoram and overall 29.7 t/(ha·yr) in the three HKH ranges. As such no considerable measures have been adopted by the communities for restoration of the degraded areas except raising fruit/farm trees and supporting limited social forestry for their livelihoods. The slopes cleared for cultivation and susceptible to erosion may be stabilized through sowing/planting of multi-purpose plant species and formation of proper bench terraces. The conservation of forest ecosystem and pastures at higher elevations would help in reducing overland water flow, risk of flash flood hazard and minimizing sediment loads in the downstream. It is essential to adopt site-specific resource conservation techniques and restore possible ecosystem health for sustainable agriculture and economic development in the region in future.

Projection of future streamflow of the Hunza River Basin,Karakoram Range(Pakistan)using HBV hydrological model

Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdeling(HBV) Light model was used to evaluate the performance of the model in response to climate change in the snowy and glaciated catchment area of Hunza River Basin. The study aimed to understand the temporal variation of streamflow of Hunza River and its contribution to Indus River System(IRS). HBV model performed fairly well both during calibration(R2=0.87, Reff=0.85, PBIAS=-0.36) and validation(R2=0.86, Reff=0.83, PBIAS=-13.58) periods on daily time scale in the Hunza River Basin. Model performed better on monthly time scale with slightly underestimated low flows period during bothcalibration(R2=0.94, Reff=0.88, PBIAS=0.47) and validation(R2=0.92, Reff=0.85, PBIAS=15.83) periods. Simulated streamflow analysis from 1995-2010 unveiled that the average percentage contribution of snow, rain and glacier melt to the streamflow of Hunza River is about 16.5%, 19.4% and 64% respectively. In addition, the HBV-Light model performance was also evaluated for prediction of future streamflow in the Hunza River using future projected data of three General Circulation Model(GCMs) i.e. BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, and MIROCESM under RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 and predictions were made over three time periods, 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, using 1980-2010 as the control period. Overall projected climate results reveal that temperature and precipitation are the most sensitiveparameters to the streamflow of Hunza River. MIROC-ESM predicted the highest increase in the future streamflow of the Hunza River due to increase in temperature and precipitation under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios from 2010-2099 while predicted slight increase in the streamflow under RCP2.6 during the start and end of the 21 th century. However, BCCCSM1.1 predicted decrease in the streamflow under RCP8.5 due to decrease in temperature and precipitation from 2010-2099. However, Can ESM2 predicted 22%-88% increase in the streamflow under RCP4.5 from 2010-2099. The results of this study could be useful for decision making and effective future strategic plans for water management and their sustainability in the region.

Scarcity within Opulence:Water Management in the Karakoram Mountains Revisited

Water management in general and in the Indus Basin in particular is concerned with the energy-efficient transportation of hydrologically exploitable resources from the upper zone to climatically favourable areas where irrigation helps to supersede arid conditions for the cultivation of crops and watering of meadows.In other words:Human intervention sets the stage for the allocation of water from a wider catchment area in a smaller habitat where this resource is deficient.Emphasis on mountain irrigation practices is counteracted with developments in the forelands where different frame conditions prevail and peculiar development problems occur.In dealing with the importance of water from the mountain regions three dimensions have to be evaluated:1) natural factors and their validity for the environmental frame conditions and technological adaptation processes;2) social factors and their impact on culture,economy and equitability;3) institutional factors and their importance for sustainable growth and for the implementation of development projects.In the study of decentralized irrigation systems in high mountain regions of the Indus Basin a systems theoretical approach values the complexity of interrelationships between different systems elements.Human activities in arid mountain regions are restricted by limiting ecological factors and are characterized by certain utilization and adaptive strategies.

Disintegration of uncertainties associated with real-time multi-satellite precipitation products in diverse topographic and climatic area in Pakistan

Satellite-based Precipitation Estimates(SPEs)have gained importance due to enhanced spatial and temporal resolution,particularly in Indus basin,where raingauge network has fewer observation stations and drainage area is laying in many countries.Formulation of SPEs is based on indirect mechanism,therefore,assessment and correction of associated uncertainties is required.In the present study,disintegration of uncertainties associated with four prominent real time SPEs,IMERG,TMPA,CMORPH and PERSIANN has been conducted at grid level,regional scale,and summarized in terms of regions as well as whole study area basis.The bias has been disintegrated into hit,missed,false biases,and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)into systematic and random errors.A comparison among gauge-and satellite-based precipitation estimates at annual scale,showed promising result,encouraging use of real time SPEs in the study area.On grid basis,at daily scale,from box plots,the median values of total bias(-0.5 to 0.5 mm)of the used SPEs were also encouraging although some under/over estimations were noted in terms of hit bias(-0.15 to 0.05 mm/day).Relatively higher values of missed(0.3 to 0.5 mm/day)and false(0.5 to 0.7 mm/day)biases were observed.The detected average daily RMSE,systematic errors,and random errors were also comparatively higher.Regional-scale spatial distribution of uncertainties revealed lower values of uncertainties in plain areas,depicting the better performance of satellite-based products in these areas.However,in areas of high altitude(>4000 m),due to complex topography and climatic conditions(orographic precipitation and glaciated peaks)higher values of biases and errors were observed.Topographic barriers and point scale gauge data could also be a cause of poor performance of SPEs in these areas,where precipitation is more on ridges and less in valleys where gauge stations are usually located.Precipitation system’s size and intensity can also be a reason of higher biases,because Microwave Imager underestimate precipitation in small systems(<200 km^(2))and overestimate in large systems(>2000 km^(2)).At present,use of bias correction techniques at daily time scale is compulsory to utilize real time SPEs in estimation of floods in the study area.Inter comparison of satellite products indicated that IMERG gave better results than the others with the lowest values of systematic errors,missed and false biases.

Plates Boundary and Structural Geology of Balochistan and Indus Basins through Field Observations on Chaman Transform Fault and Western Indus Suture (Pakistan): Dinosaurs from Pakistan with Attributed Bones and Key Features: Titanosaurs from India with Updated Assessment on Jainosaurus

The plate boundary between Balochistan and Indus basins is found on the position where Western Indus Suture and Chaman Transform fault converge in the south (Uthal-Bela-Ornach-Nal-Basima). From Basima to northward the both structures bifurcate and separate more than 50 km in the Zhob region, the Chaman Transform fault lies in the west as straight way in flysh and slates of Balochistan basin, and Western Indus suture lies in the east mostly straight and wide (more than 20 km wide) galaxy way like belt (gentle wavy in the central portion from Quetta to Zhob). Plate boundary between Balochistan basin and Indus basin lies in the Western Indus suture. The both structures are about 1000 - 1500 km trends northward. The northward bending of strikes in the southern Balochistan basin (from Arabian sea to Kharan) on the western flank of Chaman transform fault and dragging of Kharan limestones revealed left lateral strike slip fault. The structures of Balochistan basin are mostly imbricated while the structure of Indus basin is mostly folded. Different basins in Pakistan yielded dinosaurs and diverse Mesozoic vertebrates like poripuchian titanosaurian sauropods, vitakrisaurid abelisaurian theropods, induszalimids, sulaimanisuchid and mithsaraikistanid mesoeucrocodiles, saraikisaurid pterosaurs, wasaibpanchid bird, madtsoiid snake, zahrisaurid plesiosaur and some fishes. From Pakistan 10 titanosaurs were named while from India 5 titanosaurs were named and discussed here. The updated assessment for the attribution of bones to Jainosaurus septentrionalis resulted the braincase its type or in other case braincase and scapula referable to Isisaurus colberti matching its long articular surface for coracoid of distal scapula. Key bones which were previously referred to Jainosaurus septentrionalis belong to mostly Gspsaurus pakistani and Balochisaurus malkani (stocky titanosaurs) and a few bones to Isisaurus colberti and Pakisaurus balochistani (slender titanosaurs).