Confronting the contradiction between the rapid development of economy and the effective protection of environment, and developing low carbon economy by optimizing the industrial structure have become one of the effec...Confronting the contradiction between the rapid development of economy and the effective protection of environment, and developing low carbon economy by optimizing the industrial structure have become one of the effective way to attract more attention. In the paper, we made a research on the correlation between china's three main industries and carbon emission intensity to find out the main factors which affect the intensity of carbon emission in China by measuring the gross emission in china's 28 main provinces in 2003-2013 and using Grey correlation analysis based on the change tendency. The results indicate that the second industry has the largest correlation with carbon emission intensity; the tertiary industry helps reduce the intensity of carbon emission, but it is not very obvious; the first industry has the least impact on carbon emission intensity. In the last part, according to the characteristics of industrial structure and carbon emission, we put forward the suggestions and strategies on the adjustment of china's industrial structure in future with the results analysis.展开更多
The industrial sector is usually the largest economy sector for carbon emissions in many countries,which made it the sector with greatest potential for carbon reduction although the process duration might be very long...The industrial sector is usually the largest economy sector for carbon emissions in many countries,which made it the sector with greatest potential for carbon reduction although the process duration might be very long.Studying the potential of industrial emission reduction has great significance in estimating the carbon emission peak of China on the one hand,and adjusting its strategy in international climate change negotiations.By employing the economic accounting method,this article estimates the emission reduction potential of China's Industrial sector for the period of 2010-2050.It reveals that,taking 2030 as the year when the emission reaches the peak,the total reduction can be 8.38 billion tons(bts) for the period of 2010-2030,with 3.12 bts from structural reduction while 5.26 bts from intensity reduction.Afterwards,reduction will continue with a total amount of 6.59 bts for the period of 2030-2050,where the structural reduction accounts for 2.47 bts,and intensity reduction 4.115 bts.If both industrial and energy consumption structures are improved during the above period,the reduction potential can be even greater,e.g.the emission peak can arrive five years earlier(in the year of 2025) and the peak value can decline by about 8%as compared to the original estimation.Reviewing the trajectory of emission changes in developed countries indicates that the industry sector can contribute to the overall reduction targets through the dual wheels of structural reduction and intensity reduction,even beyond the emission peak.This article concludes with the following policy suggestions.(1) Our estimation on the emission peak of the industrial sector suggests that China should avoid any commitment earlier than 2030 on the timeline of the overall emission peak;(2) the great potential of industrial emission reduction can improve the situation of China in climate change negotiation,where the intensity reduction can serve as an important policy option.(3) Reduction potential can be further enhanced through technology advancement,which requires furthering of market oriented reforms and improvement of institutional design.(4) To secure the reduction effects of the industrial structure adjustment,the balanced development among different regions should be encouraged in order to avoid the reverse adjustment caused by industrial transferring.(5) International cooperation promoting the application and development of industrial emission reduction technologies,including carbon capture,utilization and storage,should be encouraged.展开更多
Decarbonization and decontamination of the iron and steel industry(ISI),which contributes up to 15%to anthropogenic CO_(2) emissions(or carbon emissions)and significant proportions of air and water pollutant emissions...Decarbonization and decontamination of the iron and steel industry(ISI),which contributes up to 15%to anthropogenic CO_(2) emissions(or carbon emissions)and significant proportions of air and water pollutant emissions in China,are challenged by the huge demand for steel.Carbon and pollutants often share common emission sources,indicating that emission reduction could be achieved synergistically.Here,we explored the inherent potential of measures to adjust feedstock composition and technological structure and to control the size of the ISI to achieve carbon emission reduction(CER)and pollution emission reduction(PER).We investigated five typical pollutants in this study,namely,petroleum hydrocarbon pollutants and chemical oxygen demand in wastewater,particulate matter,SO_(2),and NO_(x) in off gases,and examined synergies between CER and PER by employing cross elasticity for the period between 2022 and 2035.The results suggest that a reduction of 8.7%-11.7%in carbon emissions and 20%-31%in pollution emissions(except for particulate matter emissions)could be achieved by 2025 under a high steel scrap ratio(SSR)scenario.Here,the SSR and electric arc furnace(EAF)ratio serve critical roles in enhancing synergies between CER and PER(which vary with the type of pollutant).However,subject to a limited volume of steel scrap,a focused increase in the EAF ratio with neglection of the available supply of steel scrap to EAF facilities would lead to an increase carbon and pollution emissions.Although CER can be achieved through SSR and EAF ratio optimization,only when the crude steel production growth rate remains below 2.2%can these optimization measures maintain the emissions in 2030 at a similar level to that in 2021.Therefore,the synergistic effects between PER and CER should be considered when formulating a development route for the ISI in the future.展开更多
The spatial distribution of chemical oxygen demand(COD) and total nitrogen(TN) yield from Qingdao are studied by comparing pollutant yield amount, densities and spatial aggregation(Getis-Ord indexes) among the land-ba...The spatial distribution of chemical oxygen demand(COD) and total nitrogen(TN) yield from Qingdao are studied by comparing pollutant yield amount, densities and spatial aggregation(Getis-Ord indexes) among the land-based pollutant source regions(PSRs) entering the three sub-seas(i.e. the Jiaozhou Bay(JZB), other coastal area in the Yellow Sea(OCAYS) and Laizhou Bay(LZB), respectively). Industrial composition of the loads are also studied by comparing pollutant yield among the sources of agriculture, rural domesticity, industry, urban domesticity and service, and calculation of Gini coefficient. Results show that spatial distribution of COD and TN yield from Qingdao are extremely unbalanced. The JZB, with less than 3% of the total coastal sea area of Qingdao, received 62% COD load and 65% TN yield from Qingdao, while the OCAYS, with more than 97% area, only received 23% COD and 20% TN, which consist with the much worsen water quality of JZB than that of OCAYS. On the other hand, the source apportionment of COD and TN loads in the PSRs entering JZB and the OCAYS was similar. The agricultural and domestic sources with high pollution intensity account for more than 80%, while the industrial and service sources with low pollution intensity account for less than 20%. While Gini coefficients, COD 0.81 and TN 0.84 which are much higher than the ‘imbalance' threshold of 0.4, show the uneven industrial structure of Qingdao. These results may be useful in the determination of land-based pollution total amount control at the PSR level.展开更多
文摘Confronting the contradiction between the rapid development of economy and the effective protection of environment, and developing low carbon economy by optimizing the industrial structure have become one of the effective way to attract more attention. In the paper, we made a research on the correlation between china's three main industries and carbon emission intensity to find out the main factors which affect the intensity of carbon emission in China by measuring the gross emission in china's 28 main provinces in 2003-2013 and using Grey correlation analysis based on the change tendency. The results indicate that the second industry has the largest correlation with carbon emission intensity; the tertiary industry helps reduce the intensity of carbon emission, but it is not very obvious; the first industry has the least impact on carbon emission intensity. In the last part, according to the characteristics of industrial structure and carbon emission, we put forward the suggestions and strategies on the adjustment of china's industrial structure in future with the results analysis.
基金funded by The National Social Science Fund under the project Research on the flows of resource&environment factors embodied in China's foreign trade[grant number14BJY067]the 12th Five Year national science and technology support program under the project Key technologies in constructing and simulating the integrated evaluation model of climate change[grant number 2012BAC20B01]
文摘The industrial sector is usually the largest economy sector for carbon emissions in many countries,which made it the sector with greatest potential for carbon reduction although the process duration might be very long.Studying the potential of industrial emission reduction has great significance in estimating the carbon emission peak of China on the one hand,and adjusting its strategy in international climate change negotiations.By employing the economic accounting method,this article estimates the emission reduction potential of China's Industrial sector for the period of 2010-2050.It reveals that,taking 2030 as the year when the emission reaches the peak,the total reduction can be 8.38 billion tons(bts) for the period of 2010-2030,with 3.12 bts from structural reduction while 5.26 bts from intensity reduction.Afterwards,reduction will continue with a total amount of 6.59 bts for the period of 2030-2050,where the structural reduction accounts for 2.47 bts,and intensity reduction 4.115 bts.If both industrial and energy consumption structures are improved during the above period,the reduction potential can be even greater,e.g.the emission peak can arrive five years earlier(in the year of 2025) and the peak value can decline by about 8%as compared to the original estimation.Reviewing the trajectory of emission changes in developed countries indicates that the industry sector can contribute to the overall reduction targets through the dual wheels of structural reduction and intensity reduction,even beyond the emission peak.This article concludes with the following policy suggestions.(1) Our estimation on the emission peak of the industrial sector suggests that China should avoid any commitment earlier than 2030 on the timeline of the overall emission peak;(2) the great potential of industrial emission reduction can improve the situation of China in climate change negotiation,where the intensity reduction can serve as an important policy option.(3) Reduction potential can be further enhanced through technology advancement,which requires furthering of market oriented reforms and improvement of institutional design.(4) To secure the reduction effects of the industrial structure adjustment,the balanced development among different regions should be encouraged in order to avoid the reverse adjustment caused by industrial transferring.(5) International cooperation promoting the application and development of industrial emission reduction technologies,including carbon capture,utilization and storage,should be encouraged.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFC1904800)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72274105).
文摘Decarbonization and decontamination of the iron and steel industry(ISI),which contributes up to 15%to anthropogenic CO_(2) emissions(or carbon emissions)and significant proportions of air and water pollutant emissions in China,are challenged by the huge demand for steel.Carbon and pollutants often share common emission sources,indicating that emission reduction could be achieved synergistically.Here,we explored the inherent potential of measures to adjust feedstock composition and technological structure and to control the size of the ISI to achieve carbon emission reduction(CER)and pollution emission reduction(PER).We investigated five typical pollutants in this study,namely,petroleum hydrocarbon pollutants and chemical oxygen demand in wastewater,particulate matter,SO_(2),and NO_(x) in off gases,and examined synergies between CER and PER by employing cross elasticity for the period between 2022 and 2035.The results suggest that a reduction of 8.7%-11.7%in carbon emissions and 20%-31%in pollution emissions(except for particulate matter emissions)could be achieved by 2025 under a high steel scrap ratio(SSR)scenario.Here,the SSR and electric arc furnace(EAF)ratio serve critical roles in enhancing synergies between CER and PER(which vary with the type of pollutant).However,subject to a limited volume of steel scrap,a focused increase in the EAF ratio with neglection of the available supply of steel scrap to EAF facilities would lead to an increase carbon and pollution emissions.Although CER can be achieved through SSR and EAF ratio optimization,only when the crude steel production growth rate remains below 2.2%can these optimization measures maintain the emissions in 2030 at a similar level to that in 2021.Therefore,the synergistic effects between PER and CER should be considered when formulating a development route for the ISI in the future.
基金partly funded by the Fundamental Research Fund for the Central Universities (No. 20136 2014)the Ocean Public Welfare Scientific Research Project of the State Oceanic Administration, People’s Republic of China (No. 201205018)
文摘The spatial distribution of chemical oxygen demand(COD) and total nitrogen(TN) yield from Qingdao are studied by comparing pollutant yield amount, densities and spatial aggregation(Getis-Ord indexes) among the land-based pollutant source regions(PSRs) entering the three sub-seas(i.e. the Jiaozhou Bay(JZB), other coastal area in the Yellow Sea(OCAYS) and Laizhou Bay(LZB), respectively). Industrial composition of the loads are also studied by comparing pollutant yield among the sources of agriculture, rural domesticity, industry, urban domesticity and service, and calculation of Gini coefficient. Results show that spatial distribution of COD and TN yield from Qingdao are extremely unbalanced. The JZB, with less than 3% of the total coastal sea area of Qingdao, received 62% COD load and 65% TN yield from Qingdao, while the OCAYS, with more than 97% area, only received 23% COD and 20% TN, which consist with the much worsen water quality of JZB than that of OCAYS. On the other hand, the source apportionment of COD and TN loads in the PSRs entering JZB and the OCAYS was similar. The agricultural and domestic sources with high pollution intensity account for more than 80%, while the industrial and service sources with low pollution intensity account for less than 20%. While Gini coefficients, COD 0.81 and TN 0.84 which are much higher than the ‘imbalance' threshold of 0.4, show the uneven industrial structure of Qingdao. These results may be useful in the determination of land-based pollution total amount control at the PSR level.