AI for science: Predicting infectious diseases

The global health landscape has been persistently challenged by the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases.Traditional epidemiological models,rooted in the early 2oth century,have provided foundational in-sights into disease dynamics.However,the intricate web of modern global interactions and the exponential growth of available data demand more advanced predictive tools.This is where AI for Science(AI4S)comes into play,offering a transformative approach by integrating artificial intelligence(Al)into infectious disease pre-diction.This paper elucidates the pivotal role of AI4s in enhancing and,in some instances,superseding tradi-tional epidemiological methodologies.By harnessing AI's capabilities,AI4S facilitates real-time monitoring,sophisticated data integration,and predictive modeling with enhanced precision.The comparative analysis highlights the stark contrast between conventional models and the innovative strategies enabled by AI4S.In essence,Al4S represents a paradigm shift in infectious disease research.It addresses the limitations of traditional models and paves the way for a more proactive and informed response to future outbreaks.As we navigate the complexities of global health challenges,Al4S stands as a beacon,signifying the next phase of evolution in disease prediction,characterized by increased accuracy,adaptability,and efficiency.

Adaptively temporal graph convolution model for epidemic prediction of multiple age groups

Introduction:Multivariate time series prediction of infectious diseases is significant to public health,and the deep learning method has attracted increasing attention in this research field.Material and methods:An adaptively temporal graph convolution(ATGCN)model,which leams the contact patterns of multiple age groups in a graph-based approach,was proposed for COVID-19 and influenza prediction.We compared ATGCN with autoregressive models,deep sequence learning models,and experience-based ATGCN models in short-term and long-term prediction tasks.Results:Results showed that the ATGCN model performed better than the autoregressive models and the deep sequence learning models on two datasets in both short-term(12.5%and 10%improvements on RMSE)and longterm(12.4%and 5%improvements on RMSE)prediction tasks.And the RMSE of ATGCN predictions fluctuated least in different age groups of COVID-19(0.029±0.003)and influenza(0.059±0.008).Compared with the Ones-ATGCN model or the Pre-ATGCN model,the ATGCN model was more robust in performance,with RMSE of 0.0293 and 0.06 on two datasets when horizon is one.Discussion:Our research indicates a broad application prospect of deep learning in the field of infectious disease prediction.Transmission characteristics and domain knowledge of infectious diseases should be further applied to the design of deep learning models and feature selection.Conclusion:The ATGCN model addressed the multivariate time series forecasting in a graph-based deep learning approach and achieved robust prediction on the confirmed cases of multiple age groups,indicating its great potentials for exploring the implicit interactions of multivariate variables.