The relationship between wage inflation and unemployment(Phillips Curve)is controversial in economic thought,and the controversy is centered around whether there is always a trade-off or not.If this relati-onship is n...The relationship between wage inflation and unemployment(Phillips Curve)is controversial in economic thought,and the controversy is centered around whether there is always a trade-off or not.If this relati-onship is negative it is called The short-run Fillips Curve.However,in the long run,this relationship may probable not exist.The matter of how inflation and unemployment influence economic growth,is debatably among macroeconomic policymakers.This study examines the behavior of the Phillips Curve in Sudan and its effect on economic growth.展开更多
Our paper first fully examines the stylized facts of the translation of global liquidity into other economic phenomena, transmission of international commodity prices into other forms, the contractionary effects of re...Our paper first fully examines the stylized facts of the translation of global liquidity into other economic phenomena, transmission of international commodity prices into other forms, the contractionary effects of renminbi appreciation, and the factor price distortion enhanced by external shocks. It then uses the extension of Phillips curve and VAR model to test the impacts of external shocks on domestic inflation. The regression results indicate that: in the short run, world food price is the main reason for domestic inflation; the influence of world oil prices on inflation will take effect in the median and long term; renminbi appreciation is contractionary through a relatively long time; world interest rates have a certain impact on domestic prices; and the translation of global liquidity has no significant effects on domestic prices thanks to the central bank’s offset efforts. In sum, GDP growth is still the root cause of inflation and the external shocks are just one contributing factor. Therefore, the following policies would be vital to curbing inflation: maintaining a moderate rather than excessive growth rate, adjusting the distorted factor price to control investment demand, and increasing the flexibility of the exchange rate regime and making the independent monetary policy the first line of defense against external shocks.展开更多
Deglobalization and elevated inflation are important features of the current world economy.Will the reversing of globalization affect the level and formation mechanism of inflation in the countries(or regions)?This pa...Deglobalization and elevated inflation are important features of the current world economy.Will the reversing of globalization affect the level and formation mechanism of inflation in the countries(or regions)?This paper selects 163 sample economies and constructs an index system in measurement of globalization.On such basis,it integrates the index system into the hybrid Phillips curve under the condition of open economy to study the influence of globalization on inflation and the logical mechanism and to further evaluate the driving effect of deglobalization on global inflation.The result shows a deflation effect of globalization,and the effect decreases first and then grow as the globalization level of a country(or region)improves.To further investigate the formation mechanism of inflation,the paper decomposes inflation into inflation trend and inflation cycle.As far as inflation trend is concerned,trade globalization marked by participation in global value chain is the main driver of downward infation trend in developed economies,while globalization of information and finance is the primary driver of downward trend in emerging and developing economies.As to inflation cycle,trade globalization makes inflation cycle of the countries(or regions)more sensitive to price of international commodities and forms a linkage through trade network.Since the outbreak of the major public health emergency in 2020,the reversing of globalization drove up inflation of the countries(or regions),and those with higher participation in global value chain have higher level of inflation.展开更多
This paper argues that the adoption of an inflation target reduces the persistence of inflation.We develop the theoretical literature on inflation persistence by introducing a Taylor Rule for monetary policy into a mo...This paper argues that the adoption of an inflation target reduces the persistence of inflation.We develop the theoretical literature on inflation persistence by introducing a Taylor Rule for monetary policy into a model of persistence and showing that inflation targets reduce inflation persistence.We investigate changes in the time series properties of inflation in seven countries that introduced inflation targets in the late 1980s or early 1990s.We find that the persistence of inflation is greatly reduced or eliminated following the introduction of inflation targets.展开更多
文摘The relationship between wage inflation and unemployment(Phillips Curve)is controversial in economic thought,and the controversy is centered around whether there is always a trade-off or not.If this relati-onship is negative it is called The short-run Fillips Curve.However,in the long run,this relationship may probable not exist.The matter of how inflation and unemployment influence economic growth,is debatably among macroeconomic policymakers.This study examines the behavior of the Phillips Curve in Sudan and its effect on economic growth.
基金the key NSSF(National Social Science Foundation)public bid invitation project"The Strategic Adjustment of China’s Economic Structure and the Transformation of Growth Modes"(Grant No:06&ZD004_01)"Carrying out the Outlook of Scientific Development and Improving the Macro-Control System"(Grant No:07&ZD004)
文摘Our paper first fully examines the stylized facts of the translation of global liquidity into other economic phenomena, transmission of international commodity prices into other forms, the contractionary effects of renminbi appreciation, and the factor price distortion enhanced by external shocks. It then uses the extension of Phillips curve and VAR model to test the impacts of external shocks on domestic inflation. The regression results indicate that: in the short run, world food price is the main reason for domestic inflation; the influence of world oil prices on inflation will take effect in the median and long term; renminbi appreciation is contractionary through a relatively long time; world interest rates have a certain impact on domestic prices; and the translation of global liquidity has no significant effects on domestic prices thanks to the central bank’s offset efforts. In sum, GDP growth is still the root cause of inflation and the external shocks are just one contributing factor. Therefore, the following policies would be vital to curbing inflation: maintaining a moderate rather than excessive growth rate, adjusting the distorted factor price to control investment demand, and increasing the flexibility of the exchange rate regime and making the independent monetary policy the first line of defense against external shocks.
基金This paper was made possible by grants from the National Social Science Foundation, the Ministry of Education, the 985 Project, and the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at Nanjing University.
文摘Deglobalization and elevated inflation are important features of the current world economy.Will the reversing of globalization affect the level and formation mechanism of inflation in the countries(or regions)?This paper selects 163 sample economies and constructs an index system in measurement of globalization.On such basis,it integrates the index system into the hybrid Phillips curve under the condition of open economy to study the influence of globalization on inflation and the logical mechanism and to further evaluate the driving effect of deglobalization on global inflation.The result shows a deflation effect of globalization,and the effect decreases first and then grow as the globalization level of a country(or region)improves.To further investigate the formation mechanism of inflation,the paper decomposes inflation into inflation trend and inflation cycle.As far as inflation trend is concerned,trade globalization marked by participation in global value chain is the main driver of downward infation trend in developed economies,while globalization of information and finance is the primary driver of downward trend in emerging and developing economies.As to inflation cycle,trade globalization makes inflation cycle of the countries(or regions)more sensitive to price of international commodities and forms a linkage through trade network.Since the outbreak of the major public health emergency in 2020,the reversing of globalization drove up inflation of the countries(or regions),and those with higher participation in global value chain have higher level of inflation.
文摘This paper argues that the adoption of an inflation target reduces the persistence of inflation.We develop the theoretical literature on inflation persistence by introducing a Taylor Rule for monetary policy into a model of persistence and showing that inflation targets reduce inflation persistence.We investigate changes in the time series properties of inflation in seven countries that introduced inflation targets in the late 1980s or early 1990s.We find that the persistence of inflation is greatly reduced or eliminated following the introduction of inflation targets.
