This work was to generate landslide susceptibility maps for the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR) area, China by using different machine learning models. Three advanced machine learning methods, namely, gradient boosting de...This work was to generate landslide susceptibility maps for the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR) area, China by using different machine learning models. Three advanced machine learning methods, namely, gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT), random forest(RF) and information value(InV) models, were used, and the performances were assessed and compared. In total, 202 landslides were mapped by using a series of field surveys, aerial photographs, and reviews of historical and bibliographical data. Nine causative factors were then considered in landslide susceptibility map generation by using the GBDT, RF and InV models. All of the maps of the causative factors were resampled to a resolution of 28.5 m. Of the 486289 pixels in the area,28526 pixels were landslide pixels, and 457763 pixels were non-landslide pixels. Finally, landslide susceptibility maps were generated by using the three machine learning models, and their performances were assessed through receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves, the sensitivity, specificity,overall accuracy(OA), and kappa coefficient(KAPPA). The results showed that the GBDT, RF and In V models in overall produced reasonable accurate landslide susceptibility maps. Among these three methods, the GBDT method outperforms the other two machine learning methods, which can provide strong technical support for producing landslide susceptibility maps in TGR.展开更多
Bailongjiang watershed in southern Gansu province, China, is one of the most landslide-prone regions in China, characterized by very high frequency of landslide occurrence. In order to predict the landslide occurrence...Bailongjiang watershed in southern Gansu province, China, is one of the most landslide-prone regions in China, characterized by very high frequency of landslide occurrence. In order to predict the landslide occurrence, a comprehensive map of landslide susceptibility is required which may be significantly helpful in reducing loss of property and human life. In this study, an integrated model of information value method and logistic regression is proposed by using their merits at maximum and overcoming their weaknesses, which may enhance precision and accuracy of landslide susceptibility assessment. A detailed and reliable landslide inventory with 1587 landslides was prepared and randomly divided into two groups,(i) training dataset and(ii) testing dataset. Eight distinct landslide conditioning factors including lithology, slope gradient, aspect, elevation, distance to drainages,distance to faults, distance to roads and vegetation coverage were selected for landslide susceptibility mapping. The produced landslide susceptibility maps were validated by the success rate and prediction rate curves. The validation results show that the success rate and the prediction rate of the integrated model are 81.7 % and 84.6 %, respectively, which indicate that the proposed integrated method is reliable to produce an accurate landslide susceptibility map and the results may be used for landslides management and mitigation.展开更多
Slope aspect is one of the indispensable internal factors besides lithology, relative elevation and slope degree. In this paper authors use information value model with Geo graphical Information System （GIS） technol...Slope aspect is one of the indispensable internal factors besides lithology, relative elevation and slope degree. In this paper authors use information value model with Geo graphical Information System （GIS） technology to study how slope aspect contributes to landslide growth from Yunyang to Wushan segment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, and the relationship between aspect and landslide growth is quantified. Through the research on 205 landslides examples, it is found that the slope contributes most whose aspect is towards south,southeast and southwest aspect contribute moderately, and other five aspects contribute little. The research result inosculates preferably with the fact. The result of this paper can provide potent gist to the construction of Three Gorges Reservoir area in future.展开更多
目的:鉴于脓毒症的高发病率和高病死率,早期识别高风险患者并及时干预至关重要,而现有死亡风险预测模型在操作、适用性和预测长期预后等方面均存在不足。本研究旨在探讨脓毒症患者死亡的危险因素,构建近期和远期死亡风险预测模型。方法...目的:鉴于脓毒症的高发病率和高病死率,早期识别高风险患者并及时干预至关重要,而现有死亡风险预测模型在操作、适用性和预测长期预后等方面均存在不足。本研究旨在探讨脓毒症患者死亡的危险因素,构建近期和远期死亡风险预测模型。方法:从美国重症监护医学信息数据库IV(Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV,MIMIC-IV)中选取符合脓毒症3.0诊断标准的人群,按7?3的比例随机分为建模组和验证组,分析患者的基线资料。采用单因素Cox回归分析和全子集回归确定脓毒症患者死亡的危险因素并筛选出构建预测模型的变量。分别用时间依赖性曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)、校准曲线和决策曲线评估模型的区分度、校准度和临床实用性。结果:共纳入14240例脓毒症患者,28 d和1年病死率分别为21.45%(3054例)和36.50%(5198例)。高龄、女性、高感染相关器官衰竭评分(sepsis-related organ failure assessment,SOFA)、高简明急性生理学评分(simplified acute physiology score II,SAPS II)、心率快、呼吸频率快、脓毒症休克、充血性心力衰竭、慢性阻塞性肺疾病、肝脏疾病、肾脏疾病、糖尿病、恶性肿瘤、高白细胞计数(white blood cell count,WBC)、长凝血酶原时间(prothrombin time,PT)、高血肌酐(serum creatinine,SCr)水平均为脓毒症死亡的危险因素(均P<0.05)。由PT、呼吸频率、体温、合并恶性肿瘤、合并肝脏疾病、脓毒症休克、SAPS II及年龄8个变量构建的模型,其28 d和1年生存的AUC分别为0.717(95%CI 0.710~0.724)和0.716(95%CI 0.707~0.725)。校准曲线和决策曲线表明该模型具有良好的校准度及较好的临床应用价值。结论:基于MIMIC-IV建立的脓毒症患者近期和远期死亡风险预测模型有较好的识别能力,对患者预后风险评估及干预治疗具有一定的临床参考意义。展开更多
Eleven evaluating parameters for rice core collection were assessed based on genotypic values and molecular marke＇ information. Monte Carlo simulation combined with mixed linear model was used to eliminate the interf...Eleven evaluating parameters for rice core collection were assessed based on genotypic values and molecular marke＇ information. Monte Carlo simulation combined with mixed linear model was used to eliminate the interference from environment in order to draw more reliable results. The coincidence rate of range （CR） was the optimal parameter. Mean Simpson index （MD）, mean Shannon-Weaver index of genetic diversity （M1） and mean polymorphism information content （MPIC） were important evaluating parameters. The variable rate of coefficient of variation （VR） could act as an important reference parameter for evaluating the variation degree of core collection. Percentage of polymorphic loci （p） could be used as a determination parameter for the size of core collection. Mean difference percentage （MD） was a determination parameter for the reliability judgment of core collection. The effective evaluating parameters for core collection selected in the research could be used as criteria for sampling percentage in different plant germplasm populations.展开更多
【目的】存量发展背景下,城市公园等正式绿色空间增量困难、服务功能日益局限,而数量较多的非正式绿色空间尚未引起足够重视,未充分发挥价值。探究非正式绿色空间的独特价值与利用方式,可为用地约束下人居环境提升与绿化功能创新提供线...【目的】存量发展背景下,城市公园等正式绿色空间增量困难、服务功能日益局限,而数量较多的非正式绿色空间尚未引起足够重视,未充分发挥价值。探究非正式绿色空间的独特价值与利用方式,可为用地约束下人居环境提升与绿化功能创新提供线索。【方法】对Web of Science核心数据库登载的47篇典型文献进行了分析,从识别技术、游憩价值、生态价值和更新模式四方面,系统探知国外非正式绿色空间研究进展。【结果】非正式绿色空间具有触发多样游憩感知、满足多元使用需求、提升绿地获取公平性等游憩价值,以及丰富城市生物多样性、提升生态系统调节能力等生态价值。同时,国外实践表明,运用公共政策、政府支持、社会推动的综合策略可助力实现非正式绿色空间更新改造。【结论】结合国情并借鉴国外理论与实践,建议运用主动响应居民需求、创建地理信息数据库、创新规划管理范式三大策略优化国内城市非正式绿色空间建设,以期公平、生态、节约地推进城市绿化建设。展开更多
基金This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61601418,41602362,61871259)in part by the Opening Foundation of Hunan Engineering and Research Center of Natural Resource Investigation and Monitoring(2020-5)+1 种基金in part by the Qilian Mountain National Park Research Center(Qinghai)(grant number:GKQ2019-01)in part by the Geomatics Technology and Application Key Laboratory of Qinghai Province,Grant No.QHDX-2019-01.
文摘This work was to generate landslide susceptibility maps for the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR) area, China by using different machine learning models. Three advanced machine learning methods, namely, gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT), random forest(RF) and information value(InV) models, were used, and the performances were assessed and compared. In total, 202 landslides were mapped by using a series of field surveys, aerial photographs, and reviews of historical and bibliographical data. Nine causative factors were then considered in landslide susceptibility map generation by using the GBDT, RF and InV models. All of the maps of the causative factors were resampled to a resolution of 28.5 m. Of the 486289 pixels in the area,28526 pixels were landslide pixels, and 457763 pixels were non-landslide pixels. Finally, landslide susceptibility maps were generated by using the three machine learning models, and their performances were assessed through receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves, the sensitivity, specificity,overall accuracy(OA), and kappa coefficient(KAPPA). The results showed that the GBDT, RF and In V models in overall produced reasonable accurate landslide susceptibility maps. Among these three methods, the GBDT method outperforms the other two machine learning methods, which can provide strong technical support for producing landslide susceptibility maps in TGR.
基金supported by the Project of the 12th Five-year National Sci-Tech Support Plan of China(2011BAK12B09)China Special Project of Basic Work of Science and Technology(2011FY110100-2)
文摘Bailongjiang watershed in southern Gansu province, China, is one of the most landslide-prone regions in China, characterized by very high frequency of landslide occurrence. In order to predict the landslide occurrence, a comprehensive map of landslide susceptibility is required which may be significantly helpful in reducing loss of property and human life. In this study, an integrated model of information value method and logistic regression is proposed by using their merits at maximum and overcoming their weaknesses, which may enhance precision and accuracy of landslide susceptibility assessment. A detailed and reliable landslide inventory with 1587 landslides was prepared and randomly divided into two groups,(i) training dataset and(ii) testing dataset. Eight distinct landslide conditioning factors including lithology, slope gradient, aspect, elevation, distance to drainages,distance to faults, distance to roads and vegetation coverage were selected for landslide susceptibility mapping. The produced landslide susceptibility maps were validated by the success rate and prediction rate curves. The validation results show that the success rate and the prediction rate of the integrated model are 81.7 % and 84.6 %, respectively, which indicate that the proposed integrated method is reliable to produce an accurate landslide susceptibility map and the results may be used for landslides management and mitigation.
文摘Slope aspect is one of the indispensable internal factors besides lithology, relative elevation and slope degree. In this paper authors use information value model with Geo graphical Information System （GIS） technology to study how slope aspect contributes to landslide growth from Yunyang to Wushan segment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, and the relationship between aspect and landslide growth is quantified. Through the research on 205 landslides examples, it is found that the slope contributes most whose aspect is towards south,southeast and southwest aspect contribute moderately, and other five aspects contribute little. The research result inosculates preferably with the fact. The result of this paper can provide potent gist to the construction of Three Gorges Reservoir area in future.
文摘目的:鉴于脓毒症的高发病率和高病死率,早期识别高风险患者并及时干预至关重要,而现有死亡风险预测模型在操作、适用性和预测长期预后等方面均存在不足。本研究旨在探讨脓毒症患者死亡的危险因素,构建近期和远期死亡风险预测模型。方法:从美国重症监护医学信息数据库IV(Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV,MIMIC-IV)中选取符合脓毒症3.0诊断标准的人群,按7?3的比例随机分为建模组和验证组,分析患者的基线资料。采用单因素Cox回归分析和全子集回归确定脓毒症患者死亡的危险因素并筛选出构建预测模型的变量。分别用时间依赖性曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)、校准曲线和决策曲线评估模型的区分度、校准度和临床实用性。结果:共纳入14240例脓毒症患者,28 d和1年病死率分别为21.45%(3054例)和36.50%(5198例)。高龄、女性、高感染相关器官衰竭评分(sepsis-related organ failure assessment,SOFA)、高简明急性生理学评分(simplified acute physiology score II,SAPS II)、心率快、呼吸频率快、脓毒症休克、充血性心力衰竭、慢性阻塞性肺疾病、肝脏疾病、肾脏疾病、糖尿病、恶性肿瘤、高白细胞计数(white blood cell count,WBC)、长凝血酶原时间(prothrombin time,PT)、高血肌酐(serum creatinine,SCr)水平均为脓毒症死亡的危险因素(均P<0.05)。由PT、呼吸频率、体温、合并恶性肿瘤、合并肝脏疾病、脓毒症休克、SAPS II及年龄8个变量构建的模型,其28 d和1年生存的AUC分别为0.717(95%CI 0.710~0.724)和0.716(95%CI 0.707~0.725)。校准曲线和决策曲线表明该模型具有良好的校准度及较好的临床应用价值。结论:基于MIMIC-IV建立的脓毒症患者近期和远期死亡风险预测模型有较好的识别能力,对患者预后风险评估及干预治疗具有一定的临床参考意义。
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 30270759） the Science and Technology Department of Zhejiang Province （Grant No. 2005C32001）.
文摘Eleven evaluating parameters for rice core collection were assessed based on genotypic values and molecular marke＇ information. Monte Carlo simulation combined with mixed linear model was used to eliminate the interference from environment in order to draw more reliable results. The coincidence rate of range （CR） was the optimal parameter. Mean Simpson index （MD）, mean Shannon-Weaver index of genetic diversity （M1） and mean polymorphism information content （MPIC） were important evaluating parameters. The variable rate of coefficient of variation （VR） could act as an important reference parameter for evaluating the variation degree of core collection. Percentage of polymorphic loci （p） could be used as a determination parameter for the size of core collection. Mean difference percentage （MD） was a determination parameter for the reliability judgment of core collection. The effective evaluating parameters for core collection selected in the research could be used as criteria for sampling percentage in different plant germplasm populations.
文摘【目的】存量发展背景下,城市公园等正式绿色空间增量困难、服务功能日益局限,而数量较多的非正式绿色空间尚未引起足够重视,未充分发挥价值。探究非正式绿色空间的独特价值与利用方式,可为用地约束下人居环境提升与绿化功能创新提供线索。【方法】对Web of Science核心数据库登载的47篇典型文献进行了分析,从识别技术、游憩价值、生态价值和更新模式四方面,系统探知国外非正式绿色空间研究进展。【结果】非正式绿色空间具有触发多样游憩感知、满足多元使用需求、提升绿地获取公平性等游憩价值,以及丰富城市生物多样性、提升生态系统调节能力等生态价值。同时,国外实践表明,运用公共政策、政府支持、社会推动的综合策略可助力实现非正式绿色空间更新改造。【结论】结合国情并借鉴国外理论与实践,建议运用主动响应居民需求、创建地理信息数据库、创新规划管理范式三大策略优化国内城市非正式绿色空间建设,以期公平、生态、节约地推进城市绿化建设。
