ENSO Predictions in an Intermediate Coupled Model Influenced by Removing Initial Condition Errors in Sensitive Areas： A Target Observation Perspective

Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas（socalled ＂sensitive areas＂）. And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in prediction skill in the context of an optimal observing system. In this study, the impact on prediction skill is explored using an intermediate coupled model in which errors in initial conditions formed to make ENSO predictions are removed in certain areas. Based on ideal observing system simulation experiments, the importance of various observational networks on improvement of El Ni n？o prediction skill is examined. The results indicate that the initial states in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are important to improve El Ni n？o prediction skill effectively. When removing the initial condition errors in the central equatorial Pacific, ENSO prediction errors can be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, combinations of various subregions are considered to demonstrate the efficiency on ENSO prediction skill. Particularly, seasonally varying observational networks are suggested to improve the prediction skill more effectively. For example, in addition to observing in the central equatorial Pacific and its north throughout the year,increasing observations in the eastern equatorial Pacific during April to October is crucially important, which can improve the prediction accuracy by 62%. These results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach on detecting sensitive areas for target observations.

Application of GPS technology to build a mine-subsidence observation station

We propose the design of an observation station to establish a reliable datum for displacement and deformation analysis at the first working-face subsidence observation station of Liuzhuang Mine. The design considers various geologic and mining con-ditions. Having analyzed the aims of the joint survey and the comprehensive survey, we propose design principles, and work modes, for adopting GPS technology as the position measuring technique to be used in these two stages. Baseline vectors and spatial ad-justments of the GPS network were calculated after study of data processing and quality estimation methods. A coordinate system transformation and error estimates of the transformed GPS network data are discussed. The error estimates in all stages show that the GPS control network of the observation station has sufficient accuracy and is highly efficient. The network thus provides a reli-able datum for analyzing the laws of surface displacement and deformation induced by mining.

Clinical implications of doubling time of gastrointestinal submucosal tumors

AIM To evaluate the efficacy of doubling time(DT) of gastrointestinal submucosal tumors(GIST).METHODS From April 1987 through November 2012, a total of 323 patients were given a final histopathological diagnosis of GISTs on surgical resection or endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration(EUS-FNA) in Kitasato University East Hospital or Kitasato University Hospital. We studied 53 of these patients(34 with resected tumors and 19 with unresected tumors) whose tumors could be measured on EUS on at least two successive occasions. The histopathological diagnosis was GIST in 34 patients, leiomyoma in 5, schwannoma in 3, ectopic pancreas in 1, hamartoma in 1, cyst in 1, Brunner's adenoma in 1, and spindle-cell tumor in 7. We retrospectively calculated the DT of GISTs on the basis of the time course of EUS findings to estimate the growth rate of such tumors.RESULTS The DT was 17.2 mo for GIST, as compared with 231.2 mo for leiomyoma, 104.7 mo for schwannoma, 274.9mo for ectopic pancreas, 61.2 mo for hamartoma, 49.0 mo for cyst, and 134.7 mo for Brunner's adenoma. The GISTs were divided into risk classes on the basis of tumor diameters and mitotic figures(Fletcher's classification). The classification was extremely low risk or low risk in 28 patients, intermediate risk in 3, and high risk in 3. DT of GIST according to risk was 24.0 mo for extremely low-risk plus low-risk GIST, 17.1 mo for intermediate-risk GIST, and 3.9 mo for high-risk GIST. DT of GIST was significantly shorter than that of leiomyoma plus schwannoma(P < 0.05), and DT of high-risk GIST was significantly shorter than that of extremely low-risk plus low-risk GIST(P < 0.05).CONCLUSION For GIST, a higher risk grade was associated with a significantly shorter DT. Small SMTs should initially be followed up within 6 mo after detection.