The steady states and the transient properties of an insect outbreak model driven by Gaussian colored noise are studied in this paper. According to the Fokker-Planck equation in the unified colored-noise approximation...The steady states and the transient properties of an insect outbreak model driven by Gaussian colored noise are studied in this paper. According to the Fokker-Planck equation in the unified colored-noise approximation, we analyse the stationary probability distribution and the mean first-passage time of this model. By numerical analysis, the effects of the self-correlation time of insect birth rate and predation rate respectively reveal a manifest population divergence on the insect density. The decrease of the mean first-passage time indicates an enhancement dynamic on the density divergency with colored noise of a large self-correlation time based on the insect outbreak model.展开更多
Siberian silkmoth(SSM,Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.)is the most important defoliator of Siberian pine(Pinus sibirica Du Tour)and fir(Abies sibirica Ledeb.)stands.Warming-induced SSM outbreaks are one of the major dri...Siberian silkmoth(SSM,Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.)is the most important defoliator of Siberian pine(Pinus sibirica Du Tour)and fir(Abies sibirica Ledeb.)stands.Warming-induced SSM outbreaks are one of the major driving factors of successions within the taiga zone.It is suggested that climate change impacted the SSM range and life cycle.We analyzed the migration of alpine and northerly SSM outbreak boundaries in Siberia and the impact of the climate variables and topography on the outbreak dynamics.We used time-series scenes(multispectral data,and vegetation indexes EVI and NDII)in combination with field studies,climate variables,and GIS techniques.We found that SSM outbreaks in the area of alpine boundary shifted about 370 m uphill since the mid of 1950.The outbreak onset was promoted by increased dryness and active temperatures and decreased root zone moisture content in the spring-early summer period.The terrain topography strongly affected SSM outbreak onset and dynamics.Initially,the outbreak was located at the middle elevations on the gentle concave southeastern slopes,which are the favorable insect habitats between outbreaks.Then the outbreak expanded uphill and downhill,to steeper slopes,and both concave and convex terrains.Alongside with elevation range expansion,SSM surpassed its northern historical outbreak boundary:the potential outbreaks’boundary moved about 300 km northward.Climate warming contributes to SSM migration into former outbreak free conifer stands located in highlands and at northern latitudes.展开更多
Using tree-ring analysis, we show that the dynamics of forest tent caterpillar [Malacosoma disstria (Hbn.)] outbreaks in Alberta, Canada shifted at the turn of the 20th century from cyclic, synchronous behaviour 1850-...Using tree-ring analysis, we show that the dynamics of forest tent caterpillar [Malacosoma disstria (Hbn.)] outbreaks in Alberta, Canada shifted at the turn of the 20th century from cyclic, synchronous behaviour 1850-1910 to complex, asynchronous behavior 1910-1993. This shift in dynamics coincided with the emergence in 1910 of a latitudinal gradient in outbreak stability and periodicity reflecting a similar gradient in the periodicity of winter temperatures. We postulate that the synchronizing strength of winter temperatures has diminished as a result of climate warming, and that any synchronizing strength due to inter-population migration has been superseded by regionalized patterns of periodic forcing caused by weak low-frequency variability in winter temperatures. We speculate that a decrease in polar vorticity at the start of the 20th century led to increased meridional jet stream flow and more frequent arctic weather anomalies, resulting in a loss of synchronous decadal periodicity in outbreak occurrence. These changes in insect disturbance probabilities, including rising uncertainty, have profound consequences for forest disturbance risk management.展开更多
Masson pine stands infected by Pine wilt disease(PWD) in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region of central China were surveyed to quantify the immediate responses and subsequent trajectories of biomass,carbon(C),and nitrog...Masson pine stands infected by Pine wilt disease(PWD) in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region of central China were surveyed to quantify the immediate responses and subsequent trajectories of biomass,carbon(C),and nitrogen(N) in stand-level major ecosystem compartments.The biomasses of above-and belowground tree components,as well as of the understory,forest floor,and mineral soil(0–40 cm),were determined within each stand.C and N storage were also estimated for each ecosystem compartment.Overstory biomass decreased steadily with the extent of PWD infection.Understory biomass ranged from1.97 to 4.16 Mg ha,and the observed value for forest floor biomass was 12.89–22.59 Mg ha.The highest mean C and N concentrations were found in the stem bark and needles of Masson pine,respectively,while the lowest were found in the semi-to fully decomposed layer of the forest floor and stem wood of Masson pine,respectively.The C and N storage of aboveground trees,tree roots,and the aboveground ecosystem decreased with the extent ofPWD infection.However,the C and N contents of the understory,forest floor,and total mineral soil initially declined after PWD infection before recovering over the following several years.Those result concluded that the biomass,C,and N storage of different forest ecosystem compartments have experienced certain variations following the PWD epidemic.This is vital to understand the shifts in stand-level C and N allocation in PWD-damaged forest stands,as well as for predicting the responses of regional and global C and N cycling.展开更多
In the view of the major problems(i.e. the oversea populations, intermittent outbreaks and interface effects) demanding prompt solution, the three significant turning points of insect migration research were reviewed....In the view of the major problems(i.e. the oversea populations, intermittent outbreaks and interface effects) demanding prompt solution, the three significant turning points of insect migration research were reviewed. For the future research, the author suggests that the migration behavioural mechanism and outbreak excitation mechanism of insect pests should be studied based on the multidiscipline intersection and in a regional scale, and thus making a great progress in the inter-regional forecast of migratory insect pests.展开更多
基金Project supported by the Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province,China (Grant No. SJ08A12)the Science Foundation of the Education Bureau of Shaanxi Province,China (Grant No. 12JK0962)the Science Foundation of Baoji University of Science and Arts of China (Grant No. ZK11053)
文摘The steady states and the transient properties of an insect outbreak model driven by Gaussian colored noise are studied in this paper. According to the Fokker-Planck equation in the unified colored-noise approximation, we analyse the stationary probability distribution and the mean first-passage time of this model. By numerical analysis, the effects of the self-correlation time of insect birth rate and predation rate respectively reveal a manifest population divergence on the insect density. The decrease of the mean first-passage time indicates an enhancement dynamic on the density divergency with colored noise of a large self-correlation time based on the insect outbreak model.
基金supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research,project nos.18-45-240003 and 18-05-00432。
文摘Siberian silkmoth(SSM,Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.)is the most important defoliator of Siberian pine(Pinus sibirica Du Tour)and fir(Abies sibirica Ledeb.)stands.Warming-induced SSM outbreaks are one of the major driving factors of successions within the taiga zone.It is suggested that climate change impacted the SSM range and life cycle.We analyzed the migration of alpine and northerly SSM outbreak boundaries in Siberia and the impact of the climate variables and topography on the outbreak dynamics.We used time-series scenes(multispectral data,and vegetation indexes EVI and NDII)in combination with field studies,climate variables,and GIS techniques.We found that SSM outbreaks in the area of alpine boundary shifted about 370 m uphill since the mid of 1950.The outbreak onset was promoted by increased dryness and active temperatures and decreased root zone moisture content in the spring-early summer period.The terrain topography strongly affected SSM outbreak onset and dynamics.Initially,the outbreak was located at the middle elevations on the gentle concave southeastern slopes,which are the favorable insect habitats between outbreaks.Then the outbreak expanded uphill and downhill,to steeper slopes,and both concave and convex terrains.Alongside with elevation range expansion,SSM surpassed its northern historical outbreak boundary:the potential outbreaks’boundary moved about 300 km northward.Climate warming contributes to SSM migration into former outbreak free conifer stands located in highlands and at northern latitudes.
文摘Using tree-ring analysis, we show that the dynamics of forest tent caterpillar [Malacosoma disstria (Hbn.)] outbreaks in Alberta, Canada shifted at the turn of the 20th century from cyclic, synchronous behaviour 1850-1910 to complex, asynchronous behavior 1910-1993. This shift in dynamics coincided with the emergence in 1910 of a latitudinal gradient in outbreak stability and periodicity reflecting a similar gradient in the periodicity of winter temperatures. We postulate that the synchronizing strength of winter temperatures has diminished as a result of climate warming, and that any synchronizing strength due to inter-population migration has been superseded by regionalized patterns of periodic forcing caused by weak low-frequency variability in winter temperatures. We speculate that a decrease in polar vorticity at the start of the 20th century led to increased meridional jet stream flow and more frequent arctic weather anomalies, resulting in a loss of synchronous decadal periodicity in outbreak occurrence. These changes in insect disturbance probabilities, including rising uncertainty, have profound consequences for forest disturbance risk management.
基金supported by Special Fund for Forest Scientific Research in the Public Welfare(201204501)National Natural Science Foundation of China(31170613)Beijing Higher Education Young Elite Teacher Project(YETP0740)
文摘Masson pine stands infected by Pine wilt disease(PWD) in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region of central China were surveyed to quantify the immediate responses and subsequent trajectories of biomass,carbon(C),and nitrogen(N) in stand-level major ecosystem compartments.The biomasses of above-and belowground tree components,as well as of the understory,forest floor,and mineral soil(0–40 cm),were determined within each stand.C and N storage were also estimated for each ecosystem compartment.Overstory biomass decreased steadily with the extent of PWD infection.Understory biomass ranged from1.97 to 4.16 Mg ha,and the observed value for forest floor biomass was 12.89–22.59 Mg ha.The highest mean C and N concentrations were found in the stem bark and needles of Masson pine,respectively,while the lowest were found in the semi-to fully decomposed layer of the forest floor and stem wood of Masson pine,respectively.The C and N storage of aboveground trees,tree roots,and the aboveground ecosystem decreased with the extent ofPWD infection.However,the C and N contents of the understory,forest floor,and total mineral soil initially declined after PWD infection before recovering over the following several years.Those result concluded that the biomass,C,and N storage of different forest ecosystem compartments have experienced certain variations following the PWD epidemic.This is vital to understand the shifts in stand-level C and N allocation in PWD-damaged forest stands,as well as for predicting the responses of regional and global C and N cycling.
文摘In the view of the major problems(i.e. the oversea populations, intermittent outbreaks and interface effects) demanding prompt solution, the three significant turning points of insect migration research were reviewed. For the future research, the author suggests that the migration behavioural mechanism and outbreak excitation mechanism of insect pests should be studied based on the multidiscipline intersection and in a regional scale, and thus making a great progress in the inter-regional forecast of migratory insect pests.
