Development of an Instant Correction and Display System of Numerical Weather Prediction Products in China

This paper presents the development of numerical prediction products(NPP) correction and display system(NPPCDS) for rapid and effective post-processing and displaying of the T213 NPP(numerical prediction products of the medium range numerical weather prediction spectral model T213L31) through instant correction method. The NPPCDS consists of two modules: an automatic correction module and a graphical display module. The automatic correction module automatically corrects the T213 NPP at regularly scheduled time intervals, while the graphical display module interacts with users to display the T213 NPP and its correction results. The system helps forecasters extract the most relevant information at a quick glance without extensive post-processing. It is simple, easy to use, and computationally efficient, and has been running stably at Huludao Meteorological Bureau in Liaoning Province of China for the past three years. Because of its low computational costs, it is particularly useful for meteorological departments that lack advanced computing capacity and still need to make short-range weather forecasting.

A new method for instant correction of numerical weather prediction products in China

This paper presents a new correction method, "instant correction method(ICM)", to improve the accuracy of numerical prediction products(NPP) and provide weather variables at grid cells. The ICM makes use of the continuity in time of the forecast errors at different forecast times to improve the accuracy of large scale NPP. To apply the ICM in China, an ensemble correction scheme is designed to correct the T213 NPP(the most popular NPP in China) through different statistical methods. The corrected T213 NPP(ICM T213 NPP) are evaluated by four popular indices: Correlation coefficient, climate anomalies correlation coefficient, root-mean-square-errors(RMSE), and confidence intervals(CI). The results show that the ICM T213 NPP are more accurate than the original T213 NPP in both the training period(2003–2008) and the validation period(2009–2010). Applications in China over the past three years indicate that the ICM is simple, fast, and reliable. Because of its low computing cost, end users in need of more accurate short-range weather forecasts around China can benefit greatly from the method.