INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT OF MAJOR METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS WITH PAPRIKA PEPPER IN HAINAN PROVINCE

Paprika pepper, as one of the main vegetable crops, is originated in the tropics and now widely planted in the world for its dietary therapy and medicinal functions. For its typical physiological properties referring to low tolerances to flood, drought and cold, paprika pepper often suffers from one or several disasters during its growing period,especially under tropical climate. Paprika pepper in Hainan, as a typical region of tropical climate in China, sustains flood, chilling and drought disaster risks induced by varied weather systems. This study was to develop and employ appropriate indices to assess hazard, sensitivity, vulnerability and prevention capability for major disasters during paprika pepper growth period, using long-term meteorological data from 1998 to 2011, actual disasters record from 1999 to 2011, production and socioeconomic statistics from 2002 to 2011 at 18 weather stations. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy method, the combined weight was given to each disaster factor, thus an integrated disaster risk assessment model was developed and applied at regional level. High flood hazard mainly occurred in eastern Hainan, high chilling hazard in north and central mountain areas, and high drought hazard in the western part of Hainan. Drought and chilling sensitivity had a similar spatial distribution which decreased from central to coastal regions while flood sensitivity was the opposite. High vulnerability of the disasters mainly occurred in central regions,similar to low prevention capability. Eastern Hainan suffered from high integrated damage risk. The predicted damage occurrence showed a good agreement with the occurrence of actual disasters. We concluded that an integrated damage risk assessment model could provide a new tool to assess major meteorological disasters and help farmers and policy makers to alleviate the risks of major meteorological disasters for paprika pepper, which seems also suitable for other crops.

Smoke Hazard Assessment Model Based on Fire Dynamics Simulator and FED Model

Smoke is the main cause of fire death. In order to minimize the potential danger of smoke hazard, a rational VR based fire training simulator should fully consider all aspects of smoke hazard. In the simulator, the visualization of data based on FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) and FED fire dynamic data and volume rendering is further optimized, which can be effectively and quickly applied to virtual fire protection. In addition, a comprehensive smoke hazard assessment model based on FED and FED is established to assess the IHD value of different paths, which represents the safety of different paths, and can be used for evacuation or rescue in virtual training. Taking the case of campus fire drill as an experiment, the research shows the accuracy and effectiveness of smoke assessment based on FDS and FED model. The road force with the highest safety can be selected through the comprehensive model. So the assessment model is proved to be valuable.

Exploring the Care Experience of a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment Team in the Management of Debilitating Syndromes in Older People

This study was conducted to investigate the clinical effects of applying the integrated geriatric assessment team approach on the care of elderly patients with debilitating syndromes.This study was conducted in Xi’an Jiaotong University hospital from January 2021 to January 2022.Around 50 patients with the geriatric debilitating syndrome were selected and retrospectively were analyzed,and psychiatrists,geriatric nurses,pharmacists,medical specialists,physiotherapists,and dieticians were selected to form a comprehensive geriatric assessment team.The patients were then assessed,a treatment plan was developed,and care was provided according to the actual situation,and the effectiveness of the clinical intervention was analyzed.This study demonstrated that,of the 50 patients in this study,the longest hospital stay was 15 days,while the shortest was 4 days,and the average length of stay was 10.23±4.37 days.Around 40 of the patients were able to eat on their own and consume food as prescribed,with a compliance rate of 80%,showing the effectiveness rate of the geriatric assessment team.In summary,the use of a comprehensive geriatric assessment team to treat and care for patients with debilitating syndromes in the elderly is an effective way,and this can significantly improve the life quality of the patients.

Theory and practice for assessing structural integrity and dynamical integrity of high-speed trains

Purpose–The safety and reliability of high-speed trains rely on the structural integrity of their components and the dynamic performance of the entire vehicle system.This paper aims to define and substantiate the assessment of the structural integrity and dynamical integrity of high-speed trains in both theory and practice.The key principles and approacheswill be proposed,and their applications to high-speed trains in Chinawill be presented.Design/methodology/approach–First,the structural integrity and dynamical integrity of high-speed trains are defined,and their relationship is introduced.Then,the principles for assessing the structural integrity of structural and dynamical components are presented and practical examples of gearboxes and dampers are provided.Finally,the principles and approaches for assessing the dynamical integrity of highspeed trains are presented and a novel operational assessment method is further presented.Findings–Vehicle system dynamics is the core of the proposed framework that provides the loads and vibrations on train components and the dynamic performance of the entire vehicle system.For assessing the structural integrity of structural components,an open-loop analysis considering both normal and abnormal vehicle conditions is needed.For assessing the structural integrity of dynamical components,a closed-loop analysis involving the influence of wear and degradation on vehicle system dynamics is needed.The analysis of vehicle system dynamics should follow the principles of complete objects,conditions and indices.Numerical,experimental and operational approaches should be combined to achieve effective assessments.Originality/value–The practical applications demonstrate that assessing the structural integrity and dynamical integrity of high-speed trains can support better control of critical defects,better lifespan management of train components and better maintenance decision-making for high-speed trains.

Approach for Obtaining Material Mechanical Properties in Local Region of Structure Based on Accurate Analysis of Micro-indentation Test

The hot or cold processing would induce the change and the inhomogeneous of the material mechanical properties in the local processing region of the structure,and it is difficult to obtain the specific mechanical properties in these regions by using the traditional material tensile test.To accurately get actual material mechanical properties in the local region of structure,a micro-indentation test system incorporated by an electronic universal material test device has been established.An indenter displacement sensor and a group of special micro-indenter assemblies are estab-lished.A numerical indentation inversion analysis method by using ABAQUS software is also proposed in this study.Based on the above test system and analysis platform,an approach to obtaining material mechanical properties in the local region of structures is proposed and established.The ball indentation test is performed and combined with the energy method by using various changed mechanical properties of 316L austenitic stainless steel under differ-ent elongations.The investigated results indicate that the material mechanical properties and the micro-indentation morphological changes have evidently relevance.Compared with the tensile test results,the deviations of material mechanical parameters,such as hardness H,the hardening exponent n,the yield strength σy and others are within 5%obtained through the indentation test and the finite element analysis.It provides an effective and convenient method for obtaining the actual material mechanical properties in the local processing region of the structure.

Climate Warming Mitigation from Nationally Determined Contributions

Individual countries are requested to submit nationally determined contributions(NDCs)to alleviate global warming in the Paris Agreement.However,the global climate effects and regional contributions are not explicitly considered in the countries’decision-making process.In this study,we evaluate the global temperature slowdown of the NDC scenario(ΔT=0.6°C)and attribute the global temperature slowdown to certain regions of the world with a compact earth system model.Considering reductions in CO_(2),CH_(4),N_(2)O,BC,and SO_(2),the R5OECD(the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in 1990)and R5ASIA(Asian countries)are the top two contributors to global warming mitigation,accounting for 39.3%and 36.8%,respectively.R5LAM(Latin America and the Caribbean)and R5MAF(the Middle East and Africa)followed behind,with contributions of 11.5%and 8.9%,respectively.The remaining 3.5%is attributed to R5REF(the Reforming Economies).Carbon Dioxide emission reduction is the decisive factor of regional contributions,but not the only one.Other greenhouse gases are also important,especially for R5MAF.The contribution of short-lived aerosols is small but significant,notably SO_(2)reduction in R5ASIA.We argue that additional species beyond CO_(2)need to be considered,including short-lived pollutants,when planning a route to mitigate climate change.It needs to be emphasized that there is still a gap to achieve the Paris Agreement 2-degree target with current NDC efforts,let alone the ambitious 1.5-degree target.All countries need to pursue stricter reduction policies for a more sustainable world.

An economic assessment of the health effects and crop yield losses caused by air pollution in China's Mainland

Air pollution is severe in China, and pollutants such as PM_(2.5) and surface O_3 may cause major damage to human health and crops, respectively. Few studies have considered the health effects of PM_(2.5) or the loss of crop yields due to surface O_3 using model-simulated air pollution data in China. We used gridded outputs from the WRF-Chem model, high resolution population data, and crop yield data to evaluate the effects on human health and crop yield in China's Mainland. Our results showed that outdoor PM_(2.5) pollution was responsible for 1.70–1.99 million cases of all-cause mortality in 2006. The economic costs of these health effects were estimated to be 151.1–176.9 billion USD, of which 90% were attributed to mortality. The estimated crop yield losses for wheat, rice, maize, and soybean were approximately 9, 4.6, 0.44, and 0.34 million tons, respectively, resulting in economic losses of 3.4 billion USD. The total economic losses due to ambient air pollution were estimated to be 154.5–180.3 billion USD, accounting for approximately 5.7%–6.6% of the total GDP of China in 2006. Our results show that both population health and staple crop yields in China have been significantly affected by exposure to air pollution. Measures should be taken to reduce emissions, improve air quality, and mitigate the economic loss.

Integrated assessment and changes of ecological environment in the Daning River Watershed

Based on Remote Sensing(RS),Geographical Information Systems(GIS),and the Spatial Principal Compo-nent Analysis(SPCA)method,the integrated assessment and changes in the ecological environment of Daning River Watershed are studied in this paper.The watershed is located in the Three Gorge Area in China.The result of the integrated assessment showed that level 9 had the biggest proportion in the year 1990,which was about 40%.In the year 2000,however,there were no levels with a proportion significantly bigger than the others.By comparing the assessment results in 1990 and 2000,it is discovered that the ecological environ-ment in Daning River Watershed in 1990 was better than that in 2000.

The integrated quality assessment of Chinese commercial dry red wine based on a method of online HPLC-DAD-CL combined with HPLC-ESI-MS

AIM: To apply an integrated quality assessment strategy to investigate the quality of multiple Chinese commercial dry red wine samples. METHOD: A comprehensive method was developed by combining a high performance liquid chromatography-diode array detector-chemiluminescence(HPLC-DAD-CL) online hyphenated system with an HPLC-ESI-MS technique. RESULTS: Chromatographic and H2O2-scavenging active fingerprints of thirteen batches of different, commercially available Chinese dry red wine samples were obtained and analyzed. Twenty-five compounds, including eighteen antioxidants were identified and evaluated. The dominant and characteristic antioxidants in the samples were identified. The relationships between antioxidant potency and the cultivated variety of grape, producing area, cellaring period, and trade mark are also discussed. CONCLUSION: The results provide the feasibility for an integrated quality assessment strategy to be efficiently and objectively used in quality(especially antioxidant activity) assessment and identification of dry red wine.

An integrated assessment method of urban drainage system:A case study in Shenzhen City,China

In recent years,the urban drainage system in China is facing the dual pressure of renovation and construction.This requires that the integrated assessment for the planning and operation of the urban drainage system is obligatory.To evaluate the urban drainage system,an integrated assessment methodology based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),integrated simulation,and fuzzy assessment is established.This method is a multi-criteria decision adding app roach to the assessment of the urban drainage system comprehensively.Through the integration of the Storm Water Management Model(SWMM),a simple wastewater treatment plant model,and a surface water quality model,an integrated modelling system for the urban drainage system is developed and applied as a key tool for assessment.Using the established method,a case study in Shenzhen City has been implemented to evaluate and compare two urban drainage system reno vation plans,the distributed plan and the centralized plan.Because of the particularity of this case study,the established method is not applied entirely.Considering the water environ mental impact,ecological impact,technological feasibility,and economic cost,the integrated performance of the distri buted plan is better.As shown in this case study,the proposed method is found to be both effective and practical.

Data-driven integrated assessment of global wild-caught seafood exported to Hong Kong by 2030 in different representative concentration and shared socioeconomic pathways

Wild-caught seafood is an important commodity traded globally.As elimate change and socioeconomic development is affecting global marine capture fisheries,the impact on regional supply remains unexplored,especially for areas like Hong Kong relying on global trading to meet high seafood consumption.However,it is challenging to assess the global marine capture fisheries production using complex process-based models.In this study,a data-driven integrated assessment approach was developed to evaluate the change of global seafood supply from wild catch.With the catch data available from 1990 to 2014,machine learning models were trained and tested including environmental,socioeconomic,geographic,and technological features to estimate the catch by ocean grid cells for individual species.Nine popular seafood categories in Hong Kong were studied,which include 68 species in total.Important input features for estimating the catch were compared across species and the impacts of these input features were interpreted using partial dependence plots.The global marine wild catch of the 68 species by countries and the export to Hong Kong were projected by 2030 in RCP2.6-SSPi,RCP4.5-SSP2,RCP7.0-SSP3,and RCP8.5-SSP5.Performances of machine learning models demonstrate the reliability of data-driven methods to estimate the catch by ocean grid cells.The importance of geographic features rank top for the estimate while that of climate change and socioeconomic development varies significantly across species.The projection reflects a drop of squid exported to Hong Kong due to the reduction of squid supply from China's mainland during 2015-2019.The export of wild-caught seafood of the nine categories to Hong Kong willhave a slight decline by about 16%from the 2020 level by 2030.The projection also suggests no significant differences among the four climatic-socioeconomically interrelated scenarios regarding the export to Hong Kong before 2030.Top producers include China's mainland,United States,and Japan.However,China's mainland and Japan will suffer from the decline.The data-driven integrated assessment approach can be improved to provide more insights into the long-term change and sustainable management.

A multi-model assessment of climate change damage in China and the world

Quantifying climate damage is essential to informing rational climate policies,but only a few studies have systematically compared the climate damage estimates made by different models,especially for China.In this study,we used three widely applied integrated assessment models-FUND,RICE,and PAGE-to estimate the damage under coupled shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways(RCPs).Results show that the costs of climate damage constitute approximately 1.5%and 0.7%of China's GDP and global GDP per 1℃ temperature rise on average,respectively.Mitigation can reduce climate risk by lowering the average estimate and worst-case effects of climate damage.Compared with business-as-usual emissions(RCP8.5),the 2℃ target will reduce the average estimate of climate damage for China and the world by 93%and 87%,respectively,and by 80%and 84%,respectively,in the worst-case situation.Sectorial analysis of climate damage highlights the inconsistency of sector scope and significant parameter uncertainties in damage modules,requiring further improvement to integrate subfield research advances,particularly for damage related to rising sea levels and cooling energy demand.

Deep Reinforcement Learning Based Decision‑Making Strategy of Autonomous Vehicle in Highway Uncertain Driving Environments

Uncertain environment on multi-lane highway,e.g.,the stochastic lane-change maneuver of surrounding vehicles,is a big challenge for achieving safe automated highway driving.To improve the driving safety,a heuristic reinforcement learning decision-making framework with integrated risk assessment is proposed.First,the framework includes a long short-term memory model to predict the trajectory of surrounding vehicles and a future integrated risk assessment model to estimate the possible driving risk.Second,a heuristic decaying state entropy deep reinforcement learning algorithm is introduced to address the exploration and exploitation dilemma of reinforcement learning.Finally,the framework also includes a rule-based vehicle decision model for interaction decision problems with surrounding vehicles.The proposed framework is validated in both low-density and high-density traffic scenarios.The results show that the traffic efficiency and vehicle safety are both improved compared to the common dueling double deep Q-Network method and rule-based method.

Assessment of climate damage in China based on integrated assessment framework

Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and adaptation.This study introduces a comprehensive,multidisciplinary Integrated Assessment Model(IAM)framework for evaluating climate damage in China,utilizing BCC-SESM climate model and FUND sectoral climate damage model under the SSP2-RCPs scenario.Employing a bottom-up approach,the research estimates climate damage across eight major sectors,recalibrates sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China,and elucidates distinctions among direct climate loss,market climate loss,and aggregate climate loss.The findings reveal that the total climate damage function for China follows a quadratic pattern in response to temperature rise.By 2050,the estimated climate damage is projected to be 5.4%,5.7%,and 8.2%of GDP under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,respectively.Additionally,both direct and market climate losses are projected to remain below 2%of GDP by 2050,while the aggregate climate loss could reach as high as 8.2%,which is predominantly attributed to non-market sectors.From a sectoral perspective,under the RCP8.5 scenario,human health damage constitutes the largest share(61.9%)of the total climate loss by 2050,followed by sea-level rise damage(18.6%).This study sheds lights on the adaptation policy that should attach importance to the non-market sectors,particularly focusing on human health and sea-level rise.

Global climate damage in 2℃ and 1.5℃ scenarios based on BCC_SESM model in IAM framework

The quantitative functions for climate damages provide theoretical ground for the cost-benefit analysis in climate change economics,and they are also critical for linking climate module with economic module in the Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs).Nevertheless,it is necessary for IAMs to update sectoral climate impacts in order to catch up the advance in climate change studies.This study updates the sectoral climate damage function at global scale from climate Framework for Uncertainty,Negotiation and Distribution(FUND)model and develops the aggregate climate damage function in a bottom-up fashion.Besides conventional sectors such as agriculture,forestry,water resources,energy consumption and ecosystems,this study expands climate disaster types,assesses human health impacts caused by various air pollutants,and updates coastal damage by sea level rise.The Beijing Climate Center Simple Earth System Model(BCC_SESM)is used to project climate system based on Business-as-Usual(BAU)scenario,and the 2℃ and 1.5℃ scenarios based on RCPs and SSP2 databases.Sectoral results show that the agricultural sector is projected to suffer 63% of the total damage,followed by water resources(16%)and human health(12%)sectors in 2100.The regression results indicate that the aggregate climate damage function is in positive quadratic form for zero discounting.Under BAU scenario,the aggregate climate damage is projected to be 517.7 trillion USD during 2011-2100.Compared to that,the 2℃ and 1.5℃ scenarios are projected to respectively reduce climate damages by 215.6 trillion USD(approximately 41.6%)and 263.5 trillion USD(50.9%)in 2011-2100.

Modeling the implementation of NDCs and the scenarios below 2°C for the Belt and Road countries

In order to understand better on medium-and long-term climate change issues in international cooperation of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),this paper is meant to assess the implementation of National Determined Contributions(NDCs)of the BRI countries and the emission constraints under the Paris Agreement to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels,based on the Belt and Road Integrated Assessment Model(BRIAM)and the best available data.The results show that the BRI countries are expected to collectively reduce about 3.2 billion tons of CO_(2)emissions with the implementation of their NDCs by 2030.In order to achieve the global goal of 2℃,without appropriate mitigation burden sharing and enhanced climate finance support,the BRI countries will face big challenges to bridge the emission gaps.The investment in clean energy and related new infrastructures in BRI will rise sharply to above US$100 trillion by the end of this century accordingly with the increase in carbon price,which will also eventually have a significant impact on the price of electricity and oversea freight transport in a connecting world.

Revisiting BCC-SESM parameters sensitivity with BCC-CSM1.1 co_(2)-concentration-driven simulations

Based on the results of the complex climate model BCC-CSM,the Beijing Climate Center Simple Earth System Model(BCC-SESM)was developed for climate system simulations in Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs).The first version of the BCC-SESM model was based on a high-emissions scenario(ESMRCP8.5)and tends to overestimate the temperatures in low and medium emissions scenarios.To address this problem,this study uses three CO_(2)-concentration-driven simulations under different RCP scenarios of complex climate models to evaluate parameters sensitivity and their impacts on projection efficacy.The results show that the new version of the BCC-SESM(denoted as BCC-SESM1.1)model based on a medium-emissions scenario experiment(RCP4.5)is more suitable for temperature projections for various climate scenarios.It can well reproduce the original value of complex climate model.At the same time,it also has high predictive efficacies for medium(RCP4.5)and low(RCP2.6)emissions scenarios,although it tends to underestimate for high emissions scenario(RCP8.5).The sensitivity tests for different RCP scenarios shows that the BCC-SESM1.1 has higher efficacy in projections of future climate change than those model versions based on the other scenarios.The projection deviations for the global average temperature by the BCC-SESM1.1(<2%)are better than the previous BCC-SESM(<5%).In light of recent progress in climate policy,the BCC-SESM1.1 is hence more suitable for coupling with IAMs for the purposes of assessing climate outcomes.

A U.S.‒China coal power transition and the global 1.5℃ pathway

As the world seeks to increase ambition rapidly to limit global warming to 1.5℃,joint leadership from the world's largest greenhouse gas(GHG)emitters-the United States(U.S.)and China-will be critical to deliver significant emissions reductions from their own countries as well as to catalyze increased international action.After a period of uncertainty in international climate policy,these countries now both have current leadership that supports ambitious climate action.In this context,a feasible,high-impact,and potentially globally catalytic agreement by the U.S.and China to transition away from coal to clean energy would be a major contribution toward this global effort.We undertake a plant-by-plant assessment in the power sector to identify practical coal retirement pathways for each country that are in line with national priorities and the global 1.5℃ target.Our plant-by-plant analysis shows that the 1.5℃-compatible pathways may result in an average retirement age of 47 years for the U.S.coal plants and 22 years for Chinese coal plants,raising important questions of how to compare broader economic,employment,and social impacts.We also demonstrate that such pathways would also lead to significant emissions reductions,lowering overall global energy-related CO_(2) emissions by about 9%in 2030 relative to 2020.A catalytic effect from the possibility of other countries taking compatible actions is estimated to reduce global emissions by 5.1 Gt CO_(2) in 2030 and by 10.1 Gt CO_(2) in 2045.

Evaluating indicators of human well-being for ecosystem-based management

Introduction:Interrelated social and ecological challenges demand an understanding of how environmental change and management decisions affect human well-being.This paper out-lines a framework for measuring human well-being for ecosystem-based management(EBM).We present a prototype that can be adapted and developed for various scales and contexts.Scientists and managers use indicators to assess status and trends in integrated ecosystem assessments(IEAs).To improve the social science rigor and success of EBM,we developed a systematic and transparent approach for evaluating indicators of human well-being for an IEA.Methods:Our process is based on a comprehensive conceptualization of human well-being,a scalable analysis of management priorities,and a set of indicator screening criteria tailored to the needs of EBM.We tested our approach by evaluating more than 2000 existing social indicators related to ocean and coastal management of the US West Coast.We focused on two foundational attributes of human well-being:resource access and self-determination.Outcomes and Discussion:Our results suggest that existing indicators and data are limited in their ability to reflect linkages between environmental change and human well-being,and extremely limited in their ability to assess social equity and justice.We reveal a critical need for new social indicators tailored to answer environmental questions and new data that are disaggregated by social variables to measure equity.In both,we stress the importance of collaborating with the people whose well-being is to be assessed.Conclusion:Our framework is designed to encourage governments and communities to carefully assess the complex tradeoffs inherent in environmental decision-making.