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考虑人口省际和乡城迁移因素的陕西省城镇人口发展趋势预测 被引量:5
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作者 孙博 唐远志 《西北人口》 CSSCI 2011年第1期64-66,72,共4页
人口省际迁移与乡城迁移对城镇人口发展有重要影响。本文构建了包含人口省际和乡城迁移因素的动态预测模型,对2010-2060年陕西省城镇人口发展趋势进行预测。结果表明:第一,省际迁移和乡城迁移人口在年龄结构上呈倒V型分布,以劳动年龄人... 人口省际迁移与乡城迁移对城镇人口发展有重要影响。本文构建了包含人口省际和乡城迁移因素的动态预测模型,对2010-2060年陕西省城镇人口发展趋势进行预测。结果表明:第一,省际迁移和乡城迁移人口在年龄结构上呈倒V型分布,以劳动年龄人口为主,随时间推移,人口省际和乡城迁移趋势减缓。第二,在人口省际和乡城迁移的影响下,2047年陕西省城镇劳动年龄人口规模将达到峰值,之后回落,而少年儿童和老年人口规模在预测期内始终呈现增长趋势。第三,人口省际迁移和乡城迁移因素使陕西省城镇老龄化趋势得到显著改善。 展开更多
关键词 省际迁移 乡城迁移 人口老龄化 城镇人口
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Technology Sub-diffusions:Consumptive Motivations for Mobile Phone Calls and Digital Services
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作者 Chih-Peng Chu 《China Communications》 SCIE CSCD 2008年第4期120-128,共9页
Digital services interfaced with mobile phone lines are gradually being regarded as a core product in this modern age due to the high transmission speed of mobile technology.The research in this paper is based on the ... Digital services interfaced with mobile phone lines are gradually being regarded as a core product in this modern age due to the high transmission speed of mobile technology.The research in this paper is based on the concept of product inter-dependence and actively explores the different consumptive motivations between the consumers' behavior of phone-call users and those who use digital services.This study also attempts to use a modifi ed diffusion model to estimate the consumers' collective behavior with a longitudinal approach.In this study,it can be inferred that psychological consumer motivations should dominate marketing policies.Thus,it was found that digital service users have more self-motivation and autonomy when adopting a new product because they have significantly higher innovative at-tributes than the segment of phone-call users.With these findings,we claim that we have discovered an unprec-edented concept for marketing managers who welcome the challenges of mobile digital services in the future. 展开更多
关键词 inter-dependent products TECHNOLOGY dif-fusion Mobile telecommunication DIGITAL SERVICES Consumptive MOTIVATIONS
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