The pull of inter-provincial migration of rural labor force and its influence on policy-making

As a social phenomenon closely related to development of economy, the population is always the focus ofeconomists’ attention. Based on the fifth census in 2001, this paper analyzes labor migration in Hubei Province andestablishes an econometric model to analyze the pull according to the push and pull theory, which is the famous theory onthe population flow and migration. It points out that the per capita consumption and the employment rate attract stronglythe rural labors and makes a deep exploration into the ensuing problems. Such conclusion is a special reference to thedecision-making of government. The government can provide some guidance to the rural labors according to the percapita consumption and the employment rate in order to avoid the futility of blind migration.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rural Labor Migration in China: Evidence from the Migration Stability under New-type Urbanization

Although the factors affecting rural-to-urban migration have been discussed and analyzed in detail, few studies have examined the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of rural migrants’ employment and working-cities in the post-immigrate era, which is essential for the citizenization and social integration of new-type urbanization in China. This study uses survey data from rural migration laborers across the eastern, central, and western China to construct a comprehensive labor migration stability index, and compares the determinants of the migration stability of rural labor among cities and industries using Geodetector. The results are as follows: 1) Compared with the midwestern cities, eastern cities have attracted younger and more skilled rural labor, and industries with higher technical content have higher migration stability among rural laborers. 2) Rural laborers more often adapt to changes by changing employment instead of changing working-cities. 3) The individual experiences of rural laborers and urban characteristics have significant impacts on the stability of migration, and family and societal guanxi(Chinese interpersonal relationships) enhance migration stability. 4) A unified labor market and convenient transportation have somewhat slowed industrial transfers and labor backflow. This study enhances our understanding of the roles of industrial transfer and new-type urbanization in shaping the labor geography landscape and provides policy implications for the promotion of people-oriented urbanization.

The effect of rural labor migration on poverty alleviation:a village-level study in China

The construction of the new socialist countryside is being carried out in China nowadays. Although lots of successful experience has been gotten, different problems occur in various regions yet. To analyze the relationships among rural labor migration, poverty alleviation and characteristics of migrants is important in considering the effect of rural labor migration on the construction of the new socialist countryside. Available sampling and typical case study are adopted and 236 questionnaires are collected from four villages in northwest Guangxi, China, Daxin, Lixin, Longhe and Yongchang. We analyze the rural labor migration status, characteristics of migrants, remittance situation and income, household income and the ratio of remittance income to total household income. About 2/3 of the households have migrants in surveyed villages. And nearly half of the migration households have only one fam-ily member as migrants in the four villages. The migrants mainly comprise male and the younger, with the education level of junior middle school and higher. More than half of the migrants are employed in Guangdong Province. But the characteristics of migrants in Yongchang are more diverse. The rural labor migration in the village is extremely active and extensive. And over 60% of the household with family members as migrants have remittance income. The rate in Yongchang is extremely high (80%). And the income of households with migrants getting remittance income is signif icantly higher than their counterparts. More than half of their income comes from remittance as far as the former kind of household is concerned. And in Yongchang, the rate is nearly 80%. The conclusion is that rural labor migration is popular and extensive in lots of villages. And the migration and remittance play an important role in rural household income, especially in some poor villages. For this kind of village, the rural labor migration may be some "compulsory course" in rural development. And the rural labor emigration is an essential way in poverty al-leviation. This is the f irst step in the construction of the new socialist countryside.

The Impact of Education Input on Labor Migration and Inequality in China

By introducing a general equilibrium framework to China's dual economic structure, this paper studies the microscopic mechanism of education input to narrow the urban-rural income gap and how to improve the allocation efficiency of education funds in China's "new normal" economy. The empirical analysis results show that education input is effective in narrowing the urban-rural income gap and achieving a Pareto improvement state in both direct and indirect ways. However, the effect of education input at different stages varies. In particular, the impact of compulsory education on improving inequality is more significant than the other education levels. With adjustment for the macroeconomic slowdown, raising fiscal expenditures on education can improve potential economic growth by promoting human capital accumulation and labor productivity in the long run. In all, education input can promote labor migration and narrow the urban-rural income gap, which is conducive to alleviating the contradiction of the structural transformation lag in employment and achieving inclusive growth targets.

Study on the Quantity and Age Structure of Rural Surplus Labor Force in China

Based on the data from the Second National Agriculture Census in 2006, this paper analyzed the absolute quantity and age structure of China rural surplus labor force by the classical approach. It showed that the migration of rural labor force was still far away from ＂Lewis turning point＂, and ＂mingong huang＂ （ shortage of peasant workforce） appearing in coastal areas could be explained with the location separation between the labor-intensive industries and rural labor force. It was a feasible and an effective way to push forward the transfer of labor-intensive industries from the east coast to central and Western China to absorb the abundant supply of rural labor force.

数字普惠金融赋能城乡融合——基于产业和城乡协同发展视角

数字普惠金融为破除城乡金融体系二元对立、优化城乡资源配置、助推城乡融合开辟了新路径。本文基于2011-2021年中国地级市面板数据,从产业和城乡协同发展视角分析数字普惠金融赋能城乡融合的作用渠道。研究发现,数字普惠金融有效促进了城乡融合发展。从各维度来看,覆盖广度与使用深度是促进城乡融合的关键,信贷和保险业务发挥了显著的协同效应,数字普惠金融的城乡融合效应在空间和社会维度上显著;在东部、中部地区和农村资金外流程度较轻的地区,数字普惠金融赋能城乡融合的作用更强;数字普惠金融能够促进生产要素在产业和城乡间流动,发挥劳动力转移和产业结构升级的带动作用,间接赋能城乡融合。

从劳动力迁移视角审视传统乡村向现代乡村的演化

人口迁移是促进农村转型发展的重要驱动力,然而,鲜有研究从劳动力迁移视角审视中国的乡村如何从传统向现代演化。聚焦该议题,发现缺乏人口流动是传统乡村的典型特征,劳动力迁移使乡村原本可预期的以人情交换为主要特征的利益交换模式逐渐淡化,继而演化出以市场交易机制为主导的合作模式。但这并不意味着维系传统乡村熟人社会的机制不再发挥作用,村庄剩余人口间的互助与合作、迁移群体与村庄的联系以及“城归”群体作用的发挥均受到乡村熟人社会规则的约束。构建合适的体制机制,充分发挥市场的作用以及乡村剩余人口间信息对称的优势,促进农户间密切协作,是未来乡村治理的关键所在。同时,构建迁移人口与村庄的利益联结机制能够为乡村治理现代化提供更多可能。

数字经济、农村劳动力迁移与农民农村共同富裕

文章使用2012—2022年我国30个省份的数据,实证考察数字经济、农村劳动力迁移与农民农村共同富裕三者之间的关系,并实证检验人口密度的调节作用。研究发现,数字经济发展水平和农民农村共同富裕水平均呈现稳步上升趋势;数字经济能够促进农民农村共同富裕,农村劳动力迁移在其中起到部分中介作用。进一步研究发现,人口密度在数字经济对农民农村共同富裕的影响过程中具有正向调节作用。面板门槛模型的回归结果显示,在经济发展环境越好的地区,数字经济对农民农村共同富裕的推动作用越强。

农业机械化对农业区域经济发展影响研究

农业机械化是我国现代农业农村建设的重要组成部分,分析农业机械化对农业区域经济的影响,为农业经济发展提供参考价值。选取2010—2021年我国省际面板数据,利用固定效应、中介效应和面板门槛模型检验农业机械化、农村劳动力对农业经济发展的影响机制。研究结果表明:首先,农业机械化能显著正向推动农业经济发展,区域分析中,东部地区的农业机械化对农业经济的影响最大,明显高于全国平均水平。其次,通过中介效应分析发现,只有中部地区的劳动力转移可以产生中介效应,其他地区的劳动力转移产生遮掩效应。最后,通过面板门槛模型分析发现,农村居民平均受教育水平在农业机械化与农业经济的关系中具有门槛效应,当农村居民平均受教育水平达到门槛值后,农业机械化对农业经济发展具有显著性影响。基于此,需继续提升我国的农业机械化水平,进一步完善农业机械化服务市场和农机购置补贴政策,构建并完善服务农业经营者农机作业的农机社会化服务体系、因地制宜地引导劳动力转移等,以促进我国农业区域经济可持续发展。

Rural Labor Migration and Households＇ Land Rental Behavior： Evidence from China

There has been growing debate about whether the changing demographic composition due to rural labor migration could potentially threaten China＇s agricultural productivity. The Chinese Government is promoting the ＂three rights separation system＂ to consolidate agricultural land through the land rental market with the explicit intention of fostering new agricultural management subjects and improving agricultural produetivity. The present paper estimates the effect of rural labor migration on households＇ participation in land renting in and renting out activities based on a unique dataset from three rounds of nationally representative surveys. Our results indicate that rural labor migration has a significant negative effect on households renting in land and has a positive effect on households renting out land in rural China. Therefore, the government should adopt targeted policies to effectively encourage farmers with higher agricultural capacity to rent in land to alleviate the negative effect of rural migration on households renting in land. Supporting policies should guarantee that rural migrants enjoy the same welfare services as urban residents.

中国农村劳动力人口变动趋势研究

在乡村振兴战略背景下,重新审视农村劳动力人口数量、人口结构在2021-2050年间的变化趋势,有利于从宏观上把握中国经济发展的农村劳动力人口资源,准确推进乡村振兴战略部署。以“七普”和历年人口相关数据为基础,以历年分孩次生育率和联合国总结的发展中国家生育模式经验来设置生育水平参数,以分不同时段的城镇化率变化模型设置农村人口迁出率参数,以分迁移原因的迁移数据模拟农村人口的迁移模式,采用经典的基于队列的人口预测方法,对农村劳动力人口规模、年龄结构和性别结构进行了预测。预测结果表明:农村劳动力规模持续下降,2035年、2050年分别降至2.04亿、1.20亿,仍存在农村劳动力剩余;劳动力年龄结构分布失调,将面临间断性的年龄结构断层;劳动力性别结构严重失衡,到2035年将有1910万被动不婚人群,且随着时间推移不能得到有效缓解;劳动力抚养负担持续增加,但2022-2028年仍是应对农村人口老龄化的战略机遇期。由此,在乡村振兴战略实施过程中,不仅要处理好总体上农村剩余劳动力流向城镇与局部上农村劳动力人口年龄断层的矛盾,畅通劳动力人口双向流动的渠道,也要关注农村男性受到婚姻挤压所可能引发的社会难题,以及要把握2022-2028年这个战略机遇期,为解决农村劳动力人口抚养负担过重构建制度基础。

农村劳动力转移促进了农业碳减排吗——基于30个省份的面板数据检验

厘清农村劳动力转移与农业碳排放之间的关系对于促进农业绿色低碳发展具有重要意义。为此,基于中国2005—2020年的省际面板数据,利用双向固定效应模型考察农村劳动力转移对农业碳排放的影响,而后构建中介效应模型、门槛效应模型并引入工具变量进一步明晰二者间的作用机制。研究结果表明:(1)农村劳动力转移对农业碳排放具有显著的抑制作用但表现出一定的异质性,具体表现为,中、东部地区农村劳动力转移对农业碳排放具有抑制作用而西部地区不甚明显,粮食主产区中黄河流域省份相比长江、松花江流域省份其农村劳动力转移对农业碳排放具有显著的抑制作用;(2)农村劳动力转移会使得粮食作物种植比例下降,而这一种植结构的变化会促进农业碳减排,其中介作用份额占比为10%;(3)农业机械化水平对农业碳减排存在单一门槛,不同农业机械化水平下农村劳动力转移对农业碳排放的抑制作用存在差异。

文化差异、就业平等性与农村劳动力跨省迁移——一个同时考虑非货币效用的分析框架

中国东北地区先行出现人口负增长,劳动力跨省迁出规模较大,而另一些经济欠发达地区劳动力跨省迁移却很少,这无法简单地用劳动力迁移规律解释。本文同时考虑迁移的货币效用和非货币效用目标,拓展了托达罗模型,构建了一个农村劳动力跨省迁移的决策分析框架,从区域间文化差异与就业平等性差异视角解释上述现象,并基于全国人口普查长表数据,利用31个省(自治区、直辖市)两两配对构建农村劳动力省际迁移面板模型进行实证检验。结果显示:(1)农村劳动力跨省迁移同时追求非货币效用的假设能有效解释经济欠发达地区跨省迁移少的现象;(2)就业平等性对农村劳动力跨省迁移的重要影响能有效解释东北等地区劳动力大量外迁现象,它不仅影响劳动力工资水平、就业概率、岗位选择与晋升,也影响其迁移的非货币效用;(3)在控制经济水平和就业市场容量等因素后,以平等就业环境测度的区域就业平等性差异显著促进了农村劳动力从就业平等性低的省份迁往就业平等性高的省份。

对回流农民工的多维审视:基于现有研究分析

农民工回流是中国当前人口流动的一种独特现象,回流农民工成为中国城乡社会的一个特殊群体。概念界定与群体特征、现象发生与演进趋势、回流动因及影响因素、回流效应与多重影响、身份认同与再社会化、职业选择与未来发展,是理解农民工回流现象和回流农民工群体的六个基本维度。迄今,学术界对这些问题的讨论既有普遍共识,亦有多元争鸣。随着共同富裕的扎实推进和乡村振兴的全面发展,诸多关系到回流农民工生活发展的新现象、新问题开始出现,亟待学术界的探索和回应。未来,相关研究应当实现三大拓展,即从现状描述到发展展望的拓展、从宏观分析到微观剖析的拓展、从理论观照到人文关怀的拓展。

农村劳动力外流对农民减贫的影响研究

在打赢全面脱贫“攻坚战”、推进共同富裕的背景之下,研究农村劳动力外流对农民减贫的影响,对于保障脱贫可持续性、打好农村相对贫困“持久战”具有重要意义。该文基于2010—2021年中国省级面板数据,利用面板固定效应模型和空间杜宾模型实证检验农村劳动力外流与农民减贫的关系。研究结果表明:农村劳动力外流与农民减贫之间存在显著的倒U型关系;农村劳动力外流对不同地区农民减贫存在异质性;农村劳动力流动能够通过影响农业全要素生产率和农村产业结构来影响农民减贫;农民减贫具有明显的空间正相关性,劳动力外流对减贫效果具有显著的空间溢出特征。