Is pass‑through of the exchange rate to restaurant and hotel prices asymmetric in the US?Role of monetary policy uncertainty

This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.

China’s Monetary Policy Impacts on Money and Stock Markets

This study investigated the impact of China’s monetary policy on both the money market and stock markets,assuming that non-policy variables would not respond contemporaneously to changes in policy variables.Monetary policy adjustments are swiftly observed in money markets and gradually extend to the stock market.The study examined the effects of monetary policy shocks using three primary instruments:interest rate policy,reserve requirement ratio,and open market operations.Monthly data from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed using vector error correction(VEC)models.The findings suggest a likely presence of long-lasting and stable relationships among monetary policy,the money market,and stock markets.This research holds practical implications for Chinese policymakers,particularly in managing the challenges associated with fluctuation risks linked to high foreign exchange reserves,aiming to achieve autonomy in monetary policy and formulate effective monetary strategies to stimulate economic growth.

Non-Symmetry of China’s and US Monetary Policy Spillovers:Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Analysis

This study develops a structural vector autoregression(SVAR)framework to empirically examine the reciprocal transmission channels of monetary policies between China and the United States.The primary objective is to discern potential disparities in the spillover effects of monetary policies and ascertain any contrasting mechanisms underlying these effects across the two countries.Based on our research,it appears that there exists a certain level of non-symmetry in the spillover effects of monetary policy between the two countries.Moreover,this paper provides adequate analysis of disparities in the trade framework,capital control,and financial market operations of both countries in constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that incorporates financial frictions for the examination of the theoretical rationale.The empirical findings indicate that China’s monetary policy creates a spillover effect primarily through trade.In China,following an increase in its interest rates,the domestic economic activity will experience a contraction,leading to a decline in both investment and output.Consequently,this will result in a decrease in China’s imports of investment goods from the United States,impacting the output of the US economy.In contrast,the US monetary policy exerts a spillover effect primarily through finance.An increase in interest rates by the United States is associated with a notable outflow of capital from China.This leads to a rise in the financing costs for Chinese firms,consequently diminishing their overall net worth.In light of the financial accelerator effect,corporate external financing risk premium will continue to increase,exacerbating the downward trajectory of China’s output.

Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy:quantitative easing,spreads,and international financial markets

This study investigates the international spillover effects of US unconventional monetary policy(UMP)-frequently called large-scale asset purchases or quantitative easing(QE)—on advanced and emerging market economies,using structural vector autoregressive models with high-frequency daily data.Blinder(Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Rev 92(6):465–479,2010)argued that the QE measures primarily aim to reduce US interest rate spreads,such as term and risk premiums.Considering this argument and recent empirical evidence,we use two spreads as indicators of US UMP:the mortgage and term spreads.Based on data from 20 emerging and 20 advanced countries,our empirical findings reveal that US unconventional monetary policies significantly affect financial conditions in emerging and advanced countries by altering the risktaking behavior of investors.This result suggests that the risk-taking channel plays an important role in transmitting the effects of these policies to the rest of the world.The extent of these effects depends on the type of QE measures.QE measures such as purchases of private sector securities that lower the US mortgage spread exert stronger and more significant spillover effects on international financial markets than those that reduce the US term spread.Furthermore,the estimated financial spillovers vary substantially across countries and between and within the emerging and advanced countries that we examine in this study.

Monetary Policy and Unemployment:The Case of Romania

The paper aims to analyze the monetary transmission model between the monetary policy and the labor market variable of unemployment.The results of the data show that,the external shocks have an important impact especially on the Romanian interest rates but also on the domestic production;however,the impact is not significant on unemployment,which proves the resilience of the domestic labor market.The central bank policy rate has a stabilizing effect on the unemployment rate in case of an increase in the euro area policy rate.

高质量发展阶段货币政策传导渠道的有效性——基于银行流动性创造的视角

提升货币政策传导效率是高质量发展阶段现代中央银行制度建设的客观要求。鉴于我国货币政策面临着“宽货币”难以向“宽信用”传导的梗阻困境,本文从银行流动性创造理论视角提炼高质量发展阶段货币政策传导的典型事实,在此基础上,从流动性创造发挥货币政策中介目标功能应当具备的可控性、相关性和可测性出发,考察货币政策流动性创造渠道的机理,并利用上市银行2016—2022年季度数据展开实证检验。研究发现,在高质量发展阶段,随着金融体制市场化改革不断深入推进,银行经营模式从存贷业务模式向批发业务模式转变、货币政策调控框架从数量型向价格型转变,银行流动性创造渠道会比银行贷款渠道发挥更为关键的作用。中央银行应充分认识到银行流动性创造功能的重要性,并将流动性创造纳入货币政策调控的中介目标体系。

“杯水车薪”抑或“雪中送炭”——低利率环境下货币政策的有效性研究

为应对内需不足的内部环境和严峻复杂的外部环境,我国货币政策仍将保持低利率状态,然而低利率环境下货币政策的实施效果究竟如何是政策制定者的核心关切。现有对于低利率环境下的货币政策有效性研究大多集中于发达国家,缺少对于当前中国情景下的深入探讨,而且局部投影模型尚未应用于货币政策非对称效应的研究。本文首先构建理论框架系统性分析了我国高、低利率时期货币政策的作用机理,然后基于状态依存局部投影模型定量分析了我国高、低利率时期货币政策的时变效应。研究发现:(1)我国扩张性货币政策冲击无论在高、低利率时期均能有效提升产出,从而实现预期的调控效果。(2)我国暂未陷入“流动性陷阱”,低利率时期扩张性货币政策冲击对产出、投资和消费的效应会增强,货币政策确实能起到“雪中送炭”的作用,常规货币政策尚能有效刺激消费和投资意愿,进而拉动总需求。(3)高杠杆会增强低利率时期产出和投资对扩张性货币政策冲击的响应,但会削弱消费的响应,这是因为高杠杆促使企业减少用于缓解日常运转的资金,增加用于长期投资的资金,高杠杆还会增加居民房地产投资,增强流动性约束,从而挤占居民消费。文章结论为优化货币政策有效性,增强货币政策传导效果提出建设性政策建议。

央行政策对汇率稳定的非线性调控效果——来自中国、日本和英国的证据

如何有效调控汇率稳定是推动高质量发展和高水平对外开放的重要现实议题之一。本文构建了包含央行汇率稳定政策的内生理论模型,并基于时变参数结构向量自回归模型(TVP-SVAR),采用1985—2021年我国、日本和英国的季度数据集,检验了价格型货币政策、数量型货币政策和外汇干预三类央行政策对汇率的非线性影响效应和传导效率,得出如下结论:(1)我国货币政策对宏观经济的整体调控效果优于日本和英国,且数量型货币政策优于价格型货币政策;(2)与其他国家不同,我国价格型货币政策对本国汇率的平均调控效果优于数量型货币政策,体现出稳定的逆向调控作用;(3)外汇干预与货币政策协调,能够有效维护人民币汇率稳定,但其调控效果具有短期性和“靶向性”。基于此,本文进一步从优化货币政策调控机制、加强外汇干预的定向性和时机选择、制定长期战略规划等方面提出了政策建议,旨在为有效调控汇率,防范化解重大风险提供政策启示。

货币政策利率传导机制有效性研究——基于利率市场化背景

我国自2015年以来基本完成了利率市场化改革,利率作为货币政策传导的核心中介变量,正逐步发挥引导资金市场化流转与配置于实体经济的作用。同时,我国正在全面推进数量型货币政策向价格型货币政策转变,利率水平变动与货币政策传导有效性研究具有较强的理论价值与积极的现实意义。通过向量自回归(VAR)模型,选取2015年1月至2022年6月的LPR、CPI以及金融结构等数据,对货币政策利率传导机制有效性进行全面分析,实证研究发现政策利率对银行间货币市场利率传导较为通畅,我国通过货币政策实施,能够较好地通过利率渠道传导至实体经济,支持经济高质量发展。

中国通货膨胀持久性特征与货币政策启示

基于1992Q1至2023Q2中国四类总体价格指标的环比折年率数据,借助于自回归系数和法和多倍未知结构断点检验方法,测度分析了中国通货膨胀持久性特征及其货币政策含义。研究发现:一是在样本区间内四类通货膨胀持久性相对较高,CPI和RPI存在两个显著的均值结构断点,分别在1996Q2和2003Q2,GDP_def存在一个显著的均值结构断点,在1996Q2,三者通货膨胀持久性近期均呈现上升趋势。PPI不存在明显均值结构断点;二是半衰期持久性测度结果显示,当前我国货币政策对CPI和RPI的调控应至少提前1个季度,对PPI的调控应至少提前2个季度,对GDP_def的调控应至少提前3个季度;三是我国CPI和RPI通货膨胀持久性在20世纪90年代呈现出一定程度的下降,这与国际研究实践一致。

中国货币政策对周边发达国家的溢出效应

作为世界第二经济大国,中国的货币政策会对其他国家产生外溢性,特别是对于周边发达国家,文章基于PVAR模型,对中国货币政策的利率、货币供应量两个传导渠道进行了深入分析。研究发现,中国宏观经济政策对周边发达国家产出水平、物价水平和汇率均存在溢出效应,通过不同渠道对周边国家经济产出及价格水平产生的影响存在异质性。在大多情况下,与价值型货币政策相比,数量型货币政策带来的不良影响更为显著。未来,中国应持续推进货币制度改革,合理选择“双赢”的货币政策手段,在达成国内货币政策目标的同时,并对周边先进国家的经济产生正面效应,进而推动双方共同向前发展。

Monetary policy and dynamic adjustment of corporate investment: A policy transmission channel perspective

We investigate monetary policy effects on corporate investment adjustment,using a sample of China's A-share listed firms(2005–2012), under an asymmetic framework and from a monetary policy transmission channel perspective. We find that corporate investment adjustment is faster in expansionary than contractionary monetary policy periods. Monetary policy has a significant effect on adjustment speed through monetary and credit channels. An increase in the growth rate of money supply or credit accelerates adjustment.Both effects are significantly greater during tightening than expansionary periods. The monetary channel has significant asymmetry, whereas the credit channel has none. Leverage moderates the relationship between monetary policy and adjustment, with a greater effect in expansionary periods. This study enriches the corporate investment behavior literature and can help governments develop and optimize macro-control policies.

Autonomy and Effectiveness of Chinese Monetary Policy under the De Facto Fixed Exchange Rate System

This paper uses monthly data to examine the autonomy and effectiveness of monetary policy in China under the de facto fixed exchange rate arrangement in place from 1998 to 2005. The results obtained from Granger causality tests in a vector autoregression framework indicate that： （i） China actually conducted independent monetary policy during the fixed exchange rate period; and （ii） market-oriented policy measures are impotent in influencing real output and prices. The framework of the investigation into the autonomy of monetary policy adapts to the Chinese economic condition that primary loan and deposit rates are set by the central bank. Based on the empirical results, the present paper provides alternative strategies to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in China, including developing the financial system and solidifying microeconomic fundamentals instead of forcing the adaptation of a more flexible exchange rate regime.

Monetary Policies versus Regulatory Policies:Management of Peer to Peer Market Interest Rates

This paper studies how monetary and regulatory policies manage peer to peer(P2P)interest rates.Based on selected representative monetary and regulatory policies,this paper finds that easy monetary policies reduce the demand for online loans,thus reducing the market s interest rates.Monetary policies may increase the supply of online loans through rational expectation channels or reduce the demand for online loans through bank risk-taking channels.Normative market-based regulatory policy enables the P2P market to return to rationality,eliminates high-risk investors and borrowers,and subsequently reduces market interest rates.Risk disposal-based regulatory policy reduces market supply to some extent,resulting in a small increase in interest rates.Both easy monetary policies and regulatory policies have a great impact on the normal platforms.The interest rate of high-risk platforms is less affected by the relevant policies,which is evidence that such platforms do not behave in accordance with the financial rules in general.Monetary policies mainly affect platforms with interest rates in a relatively normal range,while regulatory policies mainly focus on platforms with abnormal interest rates.

Macroeconomic effects of Mobile money:evidence from Uganda

This study examined the effects of mobile money-a recent innovation in Uganda’s financial-sector landscape-on aggregate economic activity and other macroeconomic variables.We first estimated the long-run mobile-money demand function using vector error correction(VEC)techniques,distinguishing between balances and transfers/transactions.We then estimated the short-run effects of mobile money on selected macroeconomic variables using structural vector autoregressive(SVAR)methods.The results showed that mobile money had moderate positive effects on monetary aggregates,consumer price index,private-sector credit,and aggregate economic activity.Mobile money balances responded to changes in monetary policy instruments,signaling possible ameliorating effects for the conduct of monetary policy.Finally,the results showed that transactional motives related to mobile money had stronger macroeconomic effects than savings motives.

Monetary Stability and Crisis Predictions Fallacies

In present days,our instable financial markets,characterized by heavier growing monetary responsibilities,are delivering and enlarging ever growing central banks’functions.The financial stability applied standards have been creating contradictory results in the recent Great Recessions since the year 1987 up to the central banks model,after the 2008 last financial crisis,with major central banks as the FED and the CEB(Diamond,2007,pp.189-200)conflicting main operative areas,monetary and financial goals with unexpected results.We have been living a very difficult and dramatic period,which suggests a lot of reconsiderations about what the monetary policy means and may pursue and in which area,with respect to the financial system restrictions,in particular,during the post-second World War,based initially on the pseudo gold dollar parity,things were relatively stable and major financial crises were happening in emerging peripheral markets only.Financial stability was ever relevant,but it was not something to which governments devoted institutional attention.Based on what happened during the recent crisis,it is now of capital responsibility connecting monetary and economic financial stability jointly.Central banks,on the contrary,seem not able to pursue both functions relying on classical market tools.Up to now,the only obligation,imposed to a central bank as a private agent,has been taking care of monetary stability,to contain inflation rates over upper limits,assumed in entering definitely in the legal tender monetary,regime almost everywhere over the planet.Originally,for specific monetary policy purposes alone,between central banks and possible financial entities,there were no guidelines or structural determined controls,only institutional and statutory single bank’s operational clauses.There were no legal constraints such as formal loan to-value,or loan to cash-flows,or formal capital level limits,based on actual constraints.Free repurchase agreements and sales or purchases of securities(the most relevant tools of monetary policy guidelines),generally based on private financial covenants,were the sole most recurrent tactical interferences in adjusting the economic free activity.The assuming statutory thresholds were casual in the incorporating state,central banks used to monitor the activities of agents through economic incentives,rather than mandating and monitoring specific legal prescriptions.The evolving inconsistency of both activities has become even more manifest;two conditions should be fulfilled simultaneously:To avoid dilemmas in which a central bank might be called to make the autonomous independent management choice between monetary price stability,pursuing at same time,generally incompatible,financial stability,two different policies should be rarely jointly assigned to same bodies,especially central banks.As regards the first issue,the IMF nevertheless,with Brunnermeier and Sannikov(Brunnermeier&Sannikov,2012),has argued that price stability and financial stability are interlinked Short-term debt financing played an important role in the run-up to the financial crisis,as increases in leverage helped boost growth but also made the economy more susceptible to a downturn.Since the recession,private agents have reduced their debt level while many governments have increased borrowing.This deleveraging process appears to be holding back the recovery,and the Japanese experience suggests that such deleveraging can continue over an extended period”,unless in the long run we are all broken at state level,as history seems now to prove.It is true indeed,as reminded by Lamfalussy(Lamfalussy et al.,2010,pp.7-9),and now widely proved by facts,that prices and the growth-employment objectives,run into each other because it is seldom the case that the pursuit of one is consistent with the pursuit of the second in global economies.

资产证券化与货币政策利率传导效率:证据与机制

近年来,中国货币政策利率传导效率有所提高,但货币市场短期利率对债券市场各期限利率、信贷市场贷款利率的传导渠道仍不够畅通。本文首先拓展马骏和王红林(2014)的理论模型,在银行间市场引入短期市场利率,从理论层面分析资产证券化对货币政策利率传导效率的影响,随后借助局部投影方法给出关于资产证券化对货币政策利率传导效率影响的经验证据,并从替换货币政策冲击、改变资产证券化测度方式、引入更多控制变量、改变估计策略等角度进行稳健性检验。理论分析结果表明,资产证券化能够提高货币政策利率传导效率,内在逻辑是价格风险对冲机制和信贷资产定价机制。实证检验结果显示,资产证券化显著提高了货币政策利率传导效率,与“低资产证券化”状态相比,“高资产证券化”状态下债券市场的无风险利率、长期利率和信贷市场贷款利率对货币市场短期利率冲击具有更大的响应。

中国央行沟通稳定外汇市场的效果研究——基于语义相似度的分析

中国的央行沟通不仅用于引导货币政策预期和宏观经济预期,还发挥着稳定汇率的作用。然而,相比于央行沟通影响利率和股价的研究,针对汇率的研究仍然较少。本文使用EGARCH模型研究了中国人民银行货币政策执行报告语义相似度对汇率波动的影响,试图检验央行沟通在稳定汇率方面的成效。本文实证研究表明,央行沟通语义相似度的提高会加剧汇率波动。这是因为,央行沟通语义相似度越高,央行释放的新信息就越少,从而会阻碍预期引导、加剧市场分歧,最终引起市场波动。分主题的文本语义相似度研究得到了类似的结论。进一步地,本文还发现了央行沟通语义相似度对汇率稳定的影响存在非线性特征,即当期或上一期语义相似度越高,语义相似度的提高对汇率波动的影响会越大。异质性分析表明,央行沟通语义相似度对汇率的影响在汇率升贬值以及近期是否实施过货币政策操作的情况下均表现出显著的异质性。最后,本文对如何完善和实践央行沟通提出了政策建议。

我国货币政策调控对产出和通胀影响的水平效应和波动率效应研究——基于VAR模型和局部投影模型冲击反应函数的实证分析

在“三重压力”下,我国货币政策调控要实现“稳增长”和“防通胀”在水平值和波动率上的“双重稳定”,既要保持适度经济增速,又要防止通货膨胀快速上升,还要防止产出和通胀波动形成的经济风险。为此,文章使用了局部投影方法和VAR模型方法计算了数量型和价格型货币政策的冲击反应函数,以此刻画货币政策对产出增长率和通货膨胀率的水平值和波动率的动态效应。实证结果表明,数量型货币政策对经济增长率和通货膨胀率均具有水平值上的显著正向效应,同时具有降低产出波动而提升通胀波动的冲击效应;价格型货币政策也对经济增长率和通货膨胀率具有显著正向效应,同时具有降低产出波动率和通胀波动率的双重稳定功能。因此,当前货币政策操作仍然要以价格型货币政策为主,以此实现货币政策逆周期和跨周期调控功能。