We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartmen...We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartments have added death,hospitalized,and critical,which improves the basic understanding of disease spread and results.We have studiedCOVID-19 cases of six countries,where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil,India,Italy,Spain,the United Kingdom,and the United States.After estimating model parameters based on available clinical data,the modelwill propagate and forecast dynamic evolution.Themodel calculates the Basic reproduction number over time using logistic regression and the Case fatality rate based on the selected countries’age-category scenario.Themodel calculates two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily,and the other is total CFR.The proposed model estimates the approximate time when the disease is at its peak and the approximate time when death cases rarely occur and calculate how much hospital beds and ICU beds will be needed in the peak days of infection.The SEIHCRD model outperforms the classic ARXmodel and the ARIMA model.RMSE,MAPE,andRsquaredmatrices are used to evaluate results and are graphically represented using Taylor and Target diagrams.The result shows RMSE has improved by 56%–74%,and MAPE has a 53%–89%improvement in prediction accuracy.展开更多
由于分布式新能源接入的波动性,需要针对孤岛直流微电网配置一定容量的储能设备。为了防止分布式储能单元的过度放电或深度充电,必须保证储能单元充放电过程中荷电状态(state of charge,SOC)均衡。针对该问题,提出了一种考虑通信异常的...由于分布式新能源接入的波动性,需要针对孤岛直流微电网配置一定容量的储能设备。为了防止分布式储能单元的过度放电或深度充电,必须保证储能单元充放电过程中荷电状态(state of charge,SOC)均衡。针对该问题,提出了一种考虑通信异常的储能单元分布式控制策略。针对不同额定容量的储能单元,对传统下垂控制进行改进,利用采样保持器周期性修改下垂系数,直至储能单元SOC均衡。并利用电压和电流信息生成单一的补偿环实现输出电流按额定容量的比例分配和直流母线电压补偿,降低系统通信能力要求。若通信发生故障,通过Dijkstra算法更新拓扑结构矩阵,基于改进后的动态一致性算法获取相邻节点的信息,得到新通信拓扑结构下的信息平均值;并通过频域分析证明系统的稳定性。最后,在RTLAB平台中搭建4种案例模型,验证所提控制策略的有效性。展开更多
基金The work has been supported by a grant received from the Ministry of Education,Government of India under the Scheme for the Promotion of Academic and Research Collaboration(SPARC)(ID:SPARC/2019/1396).
文摘We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartments have added death,hospitalized,and critical,which improves the basic understanding of disease spread and results.We have studiedCOVID-19 cases of six countries,where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil,India,Italy,Spain,the United Kingdom,and the United States.After estimating model parameters based on available clinical data,the modelwill propagate and forecast dynamic evolution.Themodel calculates the Basic reproduction number over time using logistic regression and the Case fatality rate based on the selected countries’age-category scenario.Themodel calculates two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily,and the other is total CFR.The proposed model estimates the approximate time when the disease is at its peak and the approximate time when death cases rarely occur and calculate how much hospital beds and ICU beds will be needed in the peak days of infection.The SEIHCRD model outperforms the classic ARXmodel and the ARIMA model.RMSE,MAPE,andRsquaredmatrices are used to evaluate results and are graphically represented using Taylor and Target diagrams.The result shows RMSE has improved by 56%–74%,and MAPE has a 53%–89%improvement in prediction accuracy.
文摘由于分布式新能源接入的波动性,需要针对孤岛直流微电网配置一定容量的储能设备。为了防止分布式储能单元的过度放电或深度充电,必须保证储能单元充放电过程中荷电状态(state of charge,SOC)均衡。针对该问题,提出了一种考虑通信异常的储能单元分布式控制策略。针对不同额定容量的储能单元,对传统下垂控制进行改进,利用采样保持器周期性修改下垂系数,直至储能单元SOC均衡。并利用电压和电流信息生成单一的补偿环实现输出电流按额定容量的比例分配和直流母线电压补偿,降低系统通信能力要求。若通信发生故障,通过Dijkstra算法更新拓扑结构矩阵,基于改进后的动态一致性算法获取相邻节点的信息,得到新通信拓扑结构下的信息平均值;并通过频域分析证明系统的稳定性。最后,在RTLAB平台中搭建4种案例模型,验证所提控制策略的有效性。
