Non-Symmetry of China’s and US Monetary Policy Spillovers:Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Analysis

This study develops a structural vector autoregression(SVAR)framework to empirically examine the reciprocal transmission channels of monetary policies between China and the United States.The primary objective is to discern potential disparities in the spillover effects of monetary policies and ascertain any contrasting mechanisms underlying these effects across the two countries.Based on our research,it appears that there exists a certain level of non-symmetry in the spillover effects of monetary policy between the two countries.Moreover,this paper provides adequate analysis of disparities in the trade framework,capital control,and financial market operations of both countries in constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that incorporates financial frictions for the examination of the theoretical rationale.The empirical findings indicate that China’s monetary policy creates a spillover effect primarily through trade.In China,following an increase in its interest rates,the domestic economic activity will experience a contraction,leading to a decline in both investment and output.Consequently,this will result in a decrease in China’s imports of investment goods from the United States,impacting the output of the US economy.In contrast,the US monetary policy exerts a spillover effect primarily through finance.An increase in interest rates by the United States is associated with a notable outflow of capital from China.This leads to a rise in the financing costs for Chinese firms,consequently diminishing their overall net worth.In light of the financial accelerator effect,corporate external financing risk premium will continue to increase,exacerbating the downward trajectory of China’s output.

DIFFICULTIES CONFRONTED BY ICSID TRIBUNALS IN DECIDING INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT CORRUPTION CASES AND POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS

The issue of corruption has attracted increasing attention in the study and practice of international investment law during recent years.After taking prudent consideration of the corruption defense invoked by the host states in some international investment arbitration cases involved with corruption,International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes(ICSID)tribunals accordingly determined the final awards.However,some parts of the arbitral jurisprudence aroused strong criticism,especially with regard to the ICSID tribunals’reasoning that arbitrators have no jurisdiction over corruption-tainted international investments.The ICSID tribunals are legitimately supposed to exercise their jurisdiction and are lawfully obliged to probe into the nature of corrupt activities.The tribunals are strongly expected to adopt a balanced approach in deciding the merits and fairly weighing the obligations,rights,and interests of both disputing parties.It is preferable to strengthen the collaborative interaction between ICSID proceedings and domestic anti-corruption enforcement mechanisms when it comes to combating corrupt international investment activities.Existing international treaties(or specific treaty provisions)on combating corruption in international business transactions and calling for international cooperation,alongside domestic anti-corruption enforcement legislation,have actually laid solid legal foundations for the establishment of such an anti-corruption coordinative mechanism between ICSID and domestic corruption regulatory authorities on the global level.

Proposal for a Coordinated International Institute on Friendshipology

Since becoming an active member of the South Bay Chapter of the US-China Peoples Friendship Association,I have contributed four articles to the Voice of Friendship magazine,a publication of the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries.Although the USCPFA focuses on friendship between the US and China,my deeper interest is learning about and