I. IntroductionThere have been numerous studies on free capital mobility, its management and impact on developing countries’ economy during the past decades. International capital flows create opportunities for portf...I. IntroductionThere have been numerous studies on free capital mobility, its management and impact on developing countries’ economy during the past decades. International capital flows create opportunities for portfolio diversification and risk sharing. In classical cases, capital mobility permits a more efficient global allocation of savings and directs resources toward their most productive uses (Fischer, 1998, etc.). However,展开更多
This paper investigated the relationship between demographic structure and international capital flows with panel data of 190 countries over the past 60 years＇ and projection data for the 21st century. As found, from...This paper investigated the relationship between demographic structure and international capital flows with panel data of 190 countries over the past 60 years＇ and projection data for the 21st century. As found, from a global perspective, the current account balance （CAB） is negatively related to the dependency ratio, and orresponding to continuous change, international eapital flows tend to move from ＂adult countries＂ to ＂aged or young countries.＂ Since the middle of the 20th century, the U.S., Europe, Japan, China, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, West Asia and Africa took turns in exporting capital to other countries. In the 2lst century, Europe, the U.S., Australia and Singapore will keep importing capital, while China in the 2030s, and Southeast Asia in the 2050s will in turn become the main capital importers. Given the demographic structure of China and the world, the future pattern of the international capital flows requires more serious concern and responses.展开更多
This paper.fi＇rst conducts a systematic review of domestic and foreign scholars＇ approaches to predicting short-term capital flows, then employs a combination of both direct and indirect methods to carry out its ana...This paper.fi＇rst conducts a systematic review of domestic and foreign scholars＇ approaches to predicting short-term capital flows, then employs a combination of both direct and indirect methods to carry out its analysis. Three kinds of indicators, both specific and general, are applied in both methods. Thorough consideration is given to short-term international capital inflow from trade, other current account items, capital account, and errors and omissions, as well as other channels through which short term capital might accrue to a nation＇s balance. Based on a comprehensive comparison of year-on-year data, this paper also estimates monthly data using a simplified, indirect calculation approach. Estimates show that, despite a degree of difference in results between methods, most estimates are highly consistent for a given period. Based on monthly estimates, we conclude that turbulence in international financial markets （i.e., the United States subprime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis） has had a major impact on China ＇s short-term capital flow.展开更多
文摘I. IntroductionThere have been numerous studies on free capital mobility, its management and impact on developing countries’ economy during the past decades. International capital flows create opportunities for portfolio diversification and risk sharing. In classical cases, capital mobility permits a more efficient global allocation of savings and directs resources toward their most productive uses (Fischer, 1998, etc.). However,
文摘This paper investigated the relationship between demographic structure and international capital flows with panel data of 190 countries over the past 60 years＇ and projection data for the 21st century. As found, from a global perspective, the current account balance （CAB） is negatively related to the dependency ratio, and orresponding to continuous change, international eapital flows tend to move from ＂adult countries＂ to ＂aged or young countries.＂ Since the middle of the 20th century, the U.S., Europe, Japan, China, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, West Asia and Africa took turns in exporting capital to other countries. In the 2lst century, Europe, the U.S., Australia and Singapore will keep importing capital, while China in the 2030s, and Southeast Asia in the 2050s will in turn become the main capital importers. Given the demographic structure of China and the world, the future pattern of the international capital flows requires more serious concern and responses.
文摘This paper.fi＇rst conducts a systematic review of domestic and foreign scholars＇ approaches to predicting short-term capital flows, then employs a combination of both direct and indirect methods to carry out its analysis. Three kinds of indicators, both specific and general, are applied in both methods. Thorough consideration is given to short-term international capital inflow from trade, other current account items, capital account, and errors and omissions, as well as other channels through which short term capital might accrue to a nation＇s balance. Based on a comprehensive comparison of year-on-year data, this paper also estimates monthly data using a simplified, indirect calculation approach. Estimates show that, despite a degree of difference in results between methods, most estimates are highly consistent for a given period. Based on monthly estimates, we conclude that turbulence in international financial markets （i.e., the United States subprime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis） has had a major impact on China ＇s short-term capital flow.
