Based on cosmic ray data obtained by neutron monitors at the Earth＇s surface, and data on near-relativistic electrons measured by the WIND satellite, as well as on solar X-ray and radio burst data, the solar energeti...Based on cosmic ray data obtained by neutron monitors at the Earth＇s surface, and data on near-relativistic electrons measured by the WIND satellite, as well as on solar X-ray and radio burst data, the solar energetic particle （SEP） event of 2005 January 20 is studied. The results show that this event is a mixed event where the flare is dominant in the acceleration of the SEPs, the interplanetary shock accelerates mainly solar protons with energies below 130 MeV, while the relativistic protons are only accelerated by the solar flare. The interplanetary shock had an obvious acceleration effect on relativistic electrons with energies greater than 2 MeV. It was found that the solar release time for the relativistic protons was about 06：41 UT, while that for the near-relativistic electrons was about 06：39 UT. The latter turned Out to be about 2 rain later than the onset time of the interplanetary type HI burst.展开更多
A 1D-HD shock propagation model is established to predict the arrival time of interplanetary shocks at 1 AU. Applying this model to 68 solar events during the period of February 1997 to October 2000, it is found that ...A 1D-HD shock propagation model is established to predict the arrival time of interplanetary shocks at 1 AU. Applying this model to 68 solar events during the period of February 1997 to October 2000, it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM and HAFv.2 models in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time from our model is not larger than those of the other three models for the same sample events. Also, the prediction test shows that the relative error of our model is ≤10% for 31% of all events, ≤30% for 75%, and ≤50% for 84%, which is comparable to the relative errors of the other mod- els. These results might demonstrate a potential capability of our model in terms of real-time forecasting.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘Based on cosmic ray data obtained by neutron monitors at the Earth＇s surface, and data on near-relativistic electrons measured by the WIND satellite, as well as on solar X-ray and radio burst data, the solar energetic particle （SEP） event of 2005 January 20 is studied. The results show that this event is a mixed event where the flare is dominant in the acceleration of the SEPs, the interplanetary shock accelerates mainly solar protons with energies below 130 MeV, while the relativistic protons are only accelerated by the solar flare. The interplanetary shock had an obvious acceleration effect on relativistic electrons with energies greater than 2 MeV. It was found that the solar release time for the relativistic protons was about 06：41 UT, while that for the near-relativistic electrons was about 06：39 UT. The latter turned Out to be about 2 rain later than the onset time of the interplanetary type HI burst.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40890162 40874078+2 种基金 40536029 and 40523006)Na-tional Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB806304)Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories and Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Contract GYHY200806024)
文摘A 1D-HD shock propagation model is established to predict the arrival time of interplanetary shocks at 1 AU. Applying this model to 68 solar events during the period of February 1997 to October 2000, it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM and HAFv.2 models in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time from our model is not larger than those of the other three models for the same sample events. Also, the prediction test shows that the relative error of our model is ≤10% for 31% of all events, ≤30% for 75%, and ≤50% for 84%, which is comparable to the relative errors of the other mod- els. These results might demonstrate a potential capability of our model in terms of real-time forecasting.
