A 1D-HD shock propagation model is established to predict the arrival time of interplanetary shocks at 1 AU. Applying this model to 68 solar events during the period of February 1997 to October 2000, it is found that ...A 1D-HD shock propagation model is established to predict the arrival time of interplanetary shocks at 1 AU. Applying this model to 68 solar events during the period of February 1997 to October 2000, it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM and HAFv.2 models in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time from our model is not larger than those of the other three models for the same sample events. Also, the prediction test shows that the relative error of our model is ≤10% for 31% of all events, ≤30% for 75%, and ≤50% for 84%, which is comparable to the relative errors of the other mod- els. These results might demonstrate a potential capability of our model in terms of real-time forecasting.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40890162 40874078+2 种基金 40536029 and 40523006)Na-tional Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB806304)Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories and Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Contract GYHY200806024)
文摘A 1D-HD shock propagation model is established to predict the arrival time of interplanetary shocks at 1 AU. Applying this model to 68 solar events during the period of February 1997 to October 2000, it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM and HAFv.2 models in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time from our model is not larger than those of the other three models for the same sample events. Also, the prediction test shows that the relative error of our model is ≤10% for 31% of all events, ≤30% for 75%, and ≤50% for 84%, which is comparable to the relative errors of the other mod- els. These results might demonstrate a potential capability of our model in terms of real-time forecasting.
