Application of STEEP and Interpretive Structural Modeling in the Design Imagery of Taiwan Public Ceramic Relief Murals

Ceramic relief mural is a contemporary landscape art that is carefully designed based on human nature,culture,and architectural wall space,combined with social customs,visual sensibility,and art.It may also become the main axis of ceramic art in the future.Taiwan public ceramic relief murals(PCRM)are most distinctive with the PCRM pioneered by Pan-Hsiung Chu of Meinong Kiln in 1987.In addition to breaking through the limitations of traditional public ceramic murals,Chu leveraged local culture and sensibility.The theme of art gives PCRM its unique style and innovative value throughout the Taiwan region.This study mainly analyzes and understands the design image of public ceramic murals,taking Taiwan PCRM’s design and creation as the scope,and applies STEEP analysis,that is,the social,technological,economic,ecological,and political-legal environments are analyzed as core factors;eight main important factors in the artistic design image of ceramic murals are evaluated.Then,interpretive structural modeling(ISM)is used to establish five levels,analyze the four main problems in the main core factor area and the four main target results in the affected factor area;and analyze the problem points and target points as well as their causal relationships.It is expected to sort out the relationship between these factors,obtain the hierarchical relationship of each factor,and provide a reference basis and research methods.

基于改进24Model-ISM-SNA建筑工人不安全行为关联路径研究

建筑施工现场环境复杂,为有效控制不安全行为发生,基于行为安全“2-4”模型对360份具有代表性的建筑安全事故调查报告进行分析,提取出22个不安全行为的主要影响因素。利用灰色关联分析方法(GRA)改进的集成ISM-SNA模型,将不安全行为风险因素划分为表层、过渡层与深层,然后对风险因素进行可视化分析、中心度分析及凝聚子群分析,揭示了各致因因素间的关联关系和传导路径。结果表明,建筑工人不安全行为影响因素可划分成7级3阶的多级递阶结构,安全意识、现场监管、外部环境是建筑工人不安全行为的关键影响因素,同时现场监管和隐患排查到位能有效降低不安全行为的发生。

基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。

Structure and kinematic analysis of the deepwater area of the Qiongdongnan Basin through a seismic interpretation and analogue modeling experiments

Located at the northwest continental slope of the South China Sea, the Qiongdongnan Basin bears valley-shaped bathymetry deepening toward east. It is separated from the Yinggehai Basin through NW-trending Indo-China-Red River shear zone, and connected with NW subsea basin through the Xisha Trough. Along with the rapid progress of the deepwater exploration, large amounts of high resolution geophysical and geological data were accumulated. Scientific researches about deepwater basins kept revealing brand new tectonic and sedimentary discoveries. In order to summarize the structural features and main controlling factors of the deepwater Qiongdongnan Basin, a series of researches on basin architecture, fault activities, tectonic deformation and evolution were carried out. In reference to analogue modeling experiments, a tectonic situation and a basin formation mechanism were discussed. The researches indicate that：the northern boundary of the Qiongdongnan Basin is strongly controlled by No. 2 fault. The overlapping control of two stress fields from the east and the west made the central depression zone extremely thinned. Combined with the changed stress field, the segmentation of a preexisting weakness zone made the sags in the east experiencing different rifting histories from the west ones. The NE-trending west segment of the Qiongdongnan Basin experienced strong rifting during Eocene, while the roughly EW-trending sags in the east segment show strong rifting during late Eocene and early Oligocene. Local structures such as NW-trending basal fault and inherited uplifts controlled the lateral segmentation. So first order factors such as regional stress field and preexisting weakness zone controlled the basin zonation, while the second order factors determined the segmentation from east to west.

Analysis of Ecosystem Degradation Factors in Yuanmou Arid-Hot Valleys Based on Interpretative Structural Model

For ecological restoration and reconstruction of the degraded area, it is an important premise to correctly understand the degradation factors of the ecosystem in the arid-hot valleys. The factors including vegetation degradation, land degradation, arid climate, policy failure, forest fire, rapid population growth, excessive deforestation, overgrazing, steep slope reclamation, economic poverty, engineering construction, lithology, slope, low cultural level, geological hazards, biological disaster, soil properties etc, were selected to study the Yuanmou arid-hot valleys. Based on the interpretative structural model （ISM）, it has found out that the degradation factors of the Yuanmou arid-hot valleys were not at the same level but in a multilevel hierarchical system with internal relations, which pointed out that the degradation mode of the arid-hot valleys was ＂straight （appearance）-penetrating-background＂. Such researches have important directive significance for the restoration and reconstruction of the arid-hot valleys ecosystem.

Fault detection of large-scale process control system with higher-order statistical and interpretative structural model

Nonlinear characteristic fault detection and diagnosis method based on higher-order statistical(HOS) is an effective data-driven method, but the calculation costs much for a large-scale process control system. An HOS-ISM fault diagnosis framework combining interpretative structural model(ISM) and HOS is proposed:(1) the adjacency matrix is determined by partial correlation coefficient;(2) the modified adjacency matrix is defined by directed graph with prior knowledge of process piping and instrument diagram;(3) interpretative structural for large-scale process control system is built by this ISM method; and(4) non-Gaussianity index, nonlinearity index, and total nonlinearity index are calculated dynamically based on interpretative structural to effectively eliminate uncertainty of the nonlinear characteristic diagnostic method with reasonable sampling period and data window. The proposed HOS-ISM fault diagnosis framework is verified by the Tennessee Eastman process and presents improvement for highly non-linear characteristic for selected fault cases.

Systematic rationalization approach for multivariate correlated alarms based on interpretive structural modeling and Likert scale

Alarm flood is one of the main problems in the alarm systems of industrial process. Alarm root-cause analysis and alarm prioritization are good for alarm flood reduction. This paper proposes a systematic rationalization method for multivariate correlated alarms to realize the root cause analysis and alarm prioritization. An information fusion based interpretive structural model is constructed according to the data-driven partial correlation coefficient calculation and process knowledge modification. This hierarchical multi-layer model is helpful in abnormality propagation path identification and root-cause analysis. Revised Likert scale method is adopted to determine the alarm priority and reduce the blindness of alarm handling. As a case study, the Tennessee Eastman process is utilized to show the effectiveness and validity of proposed approach. Alarm system performance comparison shows that our rationalization methodology can reduce the alarm flood to some extent and improve the performance.

Energy consumption hierarchical analysis based on interpretative structural model for ethylene production

Interpretative structural model(ISM) can transform a multivariate problem into several sub-variable problems to analyze a complex industrial structure in a more efficient way by building a multi-level hierarchical structure model. To build an ISM of a production system, the partial correlation coefficient method is proposed to obtain the adjacency matrix, which can be transformed to ISM. According to estimation of correlation coefficient, the result can give actual variable correlations and eliminate effects of intermediate variables. Furthermore, this paper proposes an effective approach using ISM to analyze the main factors and basic mechanisms that affect the energy consumption in an ethylene production system. The case study shows that the proposed energy consumption analysis method is valid and efficient in improvement of energy efficiency in ethylene production.

Research on SAP Business One Implementation Risk Factors with Interpretive Structural Model

The possible risk factors during SAP Business One implementation were studied with depth interview. The results are then adjusted by experts. 20 categories of risk factors that are totally 49 factors were found. Based on the risk factors during the SAP Business One implementation, questionnaire was used to study the key risk factors of SAP Business One implementation. Results illustrate ten key risk factors, these are risk of senior managers leadership, risk of project management, risk of process improvement, risk of implementation team organization, risk of process analysis, risk of based data, risk of personnel coordination, risk of change management, risk of secondary development, and risk of data import. Focus on the key risks of SAP Business One implementation, the interpretative structural modeling approach is used to study the relationship between these factors and establish a seven-level hierarchical structure. The study illustrates that the structure is olive-like, in which the risk of data import is on the top, and the risk of senior managers is on the bottom. They are the most important risk factors.

中国新能源汽车海外市场开拓的影响因素——基于ISM-AHP模型分析

把握新能源汽车在海外市场开拓过程中的影响因素,对于更好地实现我国新能源汽车的战略目标极为重要。影响新能源汽车海外市场的开拓因素归纳为新能源汽车产品生产、东道国市场条件、新能源汽车产品营销、新能源汽车技术支持、我国政策条件五个层面共22个子要素,并构建我国新能源汽车海外市场开拓影响因素的解释结构模型(ISM),运用层次分析法(AHP)确定各直接影响因素的相对重要性。基于此,提出要注重产品研发、优化出口策略、提升用户黏度、优化政策体系,以提升我国新能源汽车的发展动力,夯实发展基础,并更好地应对替代产品威胁。

基于ISM和AHP的城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知关键影响因素分析

深入研究城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知关键影响因素,对政府调节公众风险感知、提升应急管理能力具有重要意义。首先构建城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知影响因素指标体系,然后利用解释结构模型(ISM)方法对影响因素进行层次分析,并采用层次分析(AHP)法对各层次影响因素的影响力大小进行分析,确定城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知的关键影响因素。结果表明:城乡结合部公众突发公共卫生事件风险感知的影响因素分为直接因素、间接因素和根本因素三个层次;应急决策指挥和感染死亡情况是关键直接影响因素,医疗救援能力和应急物资保障是关键间接影响因素,文化水平、技能水平和公共设施完善度是关键根本影响因素。针对关键影响因素,提出建立和完善预警系统、普及宣传应急知识和加大对城乡结合部地区医疗机构的投入等措施,为政府应急管理提供决策支持。

基于ISM的混合轻烃装运危险性分析

“混合轻烃”是油气田伴生气和进口液化天然气中烷烃的提取物,近年市场供应逐渐增加。由于其和传统的以液化石油气为代表的烃类混合物的组分上的差别,国内缺乏对应的生产规范与储运设备,为生产与贸易带来不便。为此针对混合轻烃在装卸与运输环节中的危险性,利用可解释结构模型(ISM)对衍生的安全管理措施之间的逻辑关系进行拓扑结构呈现。结果表明:若沿用市场现有的LPG槽车运输混合轻烃则必须充分计算其工艺可靠性,提前评估这类产品的事故风险以及选择合理的包装方式,并做好设备日常维护等保障性工作;其他因素的重要度依此变化,可为安全防范提供参考;在日常的安全管理工作中,安全专项资金的投入是最基本的保障,其次是生产规章制度与安全管理规程的科学性,以及如何平衡生产效率与安全之间的关系。

基于GRA-ISM-HMM的广州市肉及肉制品安全风险评估

该研究旨在利用广州食品安全风险监测2015年至2020年针对肉及肉制品样本的检测数据,构建肉及肉制品的安全风险评估模型,从而了解广州市该段时间内肉及肉制品的食品安全风险及其时变特点。该研究采取灰色关联分析方法和解释结构模型建立风险指数,并基于该指标值作为隐马尔可夫模型的观测值探讨观测背后的隐含风险状态。分析结果显示,2015~2020年所有样本综合风险指数结果都在[0,0.45]之间,总体风险都较小,其中2019年风险最高;将风险指数进行等级划分,显示2015~2020年风险等级为[1,2,2,2,3,1];通过HMM分析得到这六年的隐藏风险等级为[0,1,1,1,2,0],与观测风险结果一致,且HMM预测2021年风险等级为1,即表明广州肉及肉制品风险往良好态势发展。最后,进行风险差异原因分析,发现各肉制品分类之间有差异,其中腊肠、鸡肉和腊肉的风险指数较高于其他种类,而2019年增加腊肠和腊肉的检测是风险增加的一个原因。总体来说,广州肉及肉制品风险较小,但依旧需要监督改善。

基于ISM-AHP-Entropy航空公司风险因素研究

针对航空公司风险因素研究,引入ISM-AHP-Entropy综合评价方法对风险因素进行评价。构建了风险因素指标体系,利用解析结构模型(ISM)将因素指标分为表层和深层致因,构建结构模型;根据问卷结果,用AHP-Entropy求出综合权重,结果表明人因和管理因素对风险影响最为显著;进一步运用AHP-Entropy综合法分别计算表层和深层致因权重并分析,结果表明表层致因中机组资源管理水平、签派员应急处置能力影响最为显著,深层致因中安全规章方针的制定情况、应急管理培训与实施情况影响最为显著;从多个现实角度出发,结合CBTA理念,为航空公司降低风险、提高安全意识与水平提出多条建议,可供航空公司参考采纳。

结合STPA和DEMATEL-ISM的民机起落架收放系统风险研究

为从系统整体角度完成对起落架收放系统的风险辨识和影响分析,将系统理论过程分析(Systematic Theory Process Analysis,STPA)与决策实验室分析-解释结构模型(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Interpretive Structural Modeling,DEMATEL-ISM)相结合来开展分析。首先,定义事故和系统级危险,以民机进近阶段放下起落架为例,运用STPA完成对风险因素的系统化辨识;其次,基于最大平均熵减(Maximum Mean De-entropy,MMDE)算法帮助DEMATEL-ISM模型确定阈值,完成对风险因素影响的重要性分析并识别可能引发系统级危险的风险传递路径,据此挖掘关键致因场景,以给出风险预防建议。结果显示:线路性能退化或失效、位置作动控制组件(Position Action Control Unit,PACU)核心处理器故障为关键原因因素,收放作动筒作动异常、机组成员操作不当、起落架指示灯显示异常、起落架液压选择阀作动异常、PACU信息接收有误为关键结果因素,这些因素均涉及多条可能引发系统级危险的风险传递路径,应予以重点控制。

基于改进DEMATEL-ISM的钢桁梁桥施工风险影响因素研究

为提高钢桁梁桥施工过程中的安全管理,对钢桁梁桥施工中的风险因素进行分析,提出了一种基于改进DEMATEL-ISM的评价方法,首先引入三角模糊数对DEMATEL法中的直接影响矩阵进行改进,从而去模糊化以减少专家评价的主观性,再通过DEMATEL法分析各影响因素的影响度、被影响度、中心度与原因度并加以排序,对得到的主要影响因素进行初步分析,利用ISM法对筛选出的影响因素进行层次划分,得到直接层影响因素、过渡层影响因素与本质影响因素,并针对分析得到的5个本质影响因素提出深入的预防预警措施,可为钢桁梁桥施工方向的安全管理提供针对性措施,为事故预防提供一定的参考依据。

基于DEMATEL-AISM的起重驾驶员态势感知与行为响应模型

为深入挖掘起重驾驶员态势感知信息-行为的因果关系,结合ENDSLEY态势感知模型与决策实验室分析(DEMATEL)-对抗解释结构模型(AISM)方法,构建起重驾驶员态势感知与行为响应模型。首先,以起重作业任务为研究对象,使用态势感知理论分析驾驶员行为响应过程,获取信息要素;其次,基于DEMATEL法,量化研究要素间的相互关系,得到综合影响矩阵,进而分析要素的属性及特征值,确定模型的关键要素;最后,采用AISM获得原因-结果属性稳定的层级结构,据此构建起重驾驶员态势感知与行为响应信息模型。结果表明:得到包含轨迹预测与规划、避碰等关键要素的22个要素及影响关系构成的5层信息模型;而且,模型明确了信息要素属性特征、影响关系及影响程度,较好地解释了驾驶员态势感知及行为响应过程。

基于改进ISM的农村自建房防灾韧性影响因素研究

为提升我国农村自建房自然灾害防范能力,从韧性角度研究影响自建房防灾减灾的差异化因素。分析农村自建房灾害事故,结合自建房使用现状及自然灾害特点,分别从自建房可靠性和恢复力2个韧性维度提取了23个相关因素,应用改进的解释结构模型法(ISM)形成多因素多级递阶结构的自建房防灾韧性系统,确定因素间的内在耦合及层次关系。结果表明:自建房选址、建造年代为农村自建房防灾可靠性关键因素,而家庭收入、常住人口中成年人占比和户主受教育水平则是农村自建房灾后恢复力关键因素。

基于ISM和AHP的政府购买公共体育服务绩效影响因素研究

政府购买公共体育服务绩效受到多种因素影响,这些因素之间关系复杂且影响力有差异。本研究旨在厘清这些因素之间层级关系和影响力排序,为政府购买公共体育服务决策者提供参考依据。基于已有文献和公共体育服务购买案例,应用解释结构模型方法(ISM)分析政府购买公共体育服务绩效影响因素间层级关系;采用层次分析法(AHP)对结构模型中各因素的影响力进行排序,得出指标体系各因素权重。结果表明:政治文化环境、制度环境和经济环境是深层根本因素;公众参与路径、信息公开、专业人才培养和规范购买流程是中层间接因素;在表层直接因素中,资金监管、承办资质和购买方式等因素最为重要。

基于CIA-ISM-BN煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故分析

为识别动态情景下煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的影响因素,推断因素之间的因果关系,采用CIA(Cross Impact Analysis)、ISM(Interpretive Structural Model)和BN(Bayesian Network)结合的情景建模方法来构建煤矿井下瓦斯爆炸事故风险评价模型。利用CIA-ISM组合生成不同影响级别下瓦斯爆炸事故影响因素的因果层次网络,并进行情景推断和分析。将层次网络映射到BN模型中,通过概率推理量化复杂依赖关系的层次网络,确定瓦斯爆炸的主要致因和造成的损害。结果表明:(1)重视监管机制、违规生产、管理技术、员工安全教育培训、违章作业和通风环境之间的微循环,可以有效阻断事故演化路径;(2)瓦斯爆炸事故发生下,造成人员伤亡、经济损失和社会影响以及有毒有害等次灾害的概率分别为94.7%,95.0%,24.0%;(3)不健全的监管机制是导致瓦斯爆炸事故发生的根本原因。