Interprovincial migration in China,1985-2005:a gravity modeling approach

This paper tries to identify the characters that might affect interprovincial migrants' decisions and examine how and why the influence of these characters changed over time individually and synthetically in China during 1985-2005.We have investigated six types of factors,namely,distance,population density,income,employment structure,house price,and migration stock.In addition,we apply the identified factors with a multiple stepwise regression model to a longitudinal dataset,which consists of interprovincial migration flows over the last two decades in China.It is found that different factors have disparate impacts on migration in China,and they can be decomposed into push force in origin area and pull force in destination area.Factors shaping China's interprovincial migration have shifted from traditional factors such as distance to economic factors such as income and employment structure.This paper suggests that more attention should be paid to obtain detailed migration data with spatial ihfonnation and develop applicable models for migration processes.Our analysis provides references for development planners and policymakers to develop sound population policies to achieve regional sustainable development in China.

Spatial-temporal patterns of China＇s interprovincial migration, 1985-2010

Migration plays an increasing role in China＇s economy since mobility rose and economic restructuring has proceeded during the last three decades. Given the background of most studies focusing on migration in a particular period, there is a critical need to analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of migration. Using bicomponent trend mapping technique and interprovincial migration data during the periods 1985-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2000, 2000- 2005, and 2005-2010 we analyze net-, in-, out-migration intensity, and their changes over time in this study. Strong spatial variations in migration intensity were found in China＇s interprovincial migration, and substantial increase in migration intensity was also detected in eastern China during 1985-2010. Eight key destinations are mostly located within the three rapidly growing economic zones of eastern China （Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region）, and they are classified into three types： mature, emerging, and fluctuant origins, while most key origins are relatively undeveloped central and western provinces, which are exactly in accordance with China＇s economic development patterns. The results of bicomponent trend mapping indicate that, in a sense, the migration in the south was more active than the north over the last three decades. The result shows the new changing features of spatial-temporal patterns of China＇s interprovincial migration that Fan and Chen did not find out in their research. A series of social-economic changes including rural transformation, balanced regional development, and labor market changes should be paid more attention to explore China＇s future interprovincial migration.

Traditional Dietary Habits and Interprovincial Migration in College Choice: Evidence From Ningxia in China

Purpose:Every September,millions of students—elite human resources—enter higher education in China.This large-scale college-induced migration has substantial impacts on China’s national and local labor markets.This study examines the migration pattern in college choice and admission among the Hui students in China.In doing so,we extend the existing interprovincial migration model by identifying and measuring the role of traditional dietary habits in college migration decisions.Design/Approach/Methods:This study uses college entrance examination(Gaokao)admission data for 10 high school graduation cohorts from 2001 to 2010 in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.These data are used to study the interprovincial migration of the Hui students following their college entrance examination.Ordinary least squares and logit regressions are used to control for other confounding factors,while the method of instrumental variables and placebo group comparison were used to rule out other explanations.Findings:Results demonstrate that traditional dietary habits produce geographic inequalities in terms of college opportunities for Hui and other minority group students.First,after controlling for variables such as college entrance examination scores and personal characteristics,results show that the Hui students are more likely to choose an institution closer to their hometown and preferred institutions located in Ningxia and the northwestern provinces rather than the Yangtze/Pearl River Delta regions and coastal provinces.Second,this migration pattern is shaped by the dietary habits of the Hui.Third,the Hui students were more likely to choose institutions in underdeveloped areas,resulting in corresponding welfare losses.Originality/Value:This study supplements classic college choice literature by documenting a special impact factor of geography previously overlooked by researchers,demonstrating the need to examine the underlying mechanisms of proximity and its significance in college choice.Moreover,the provision of dietary information may have important policy impacts for improved college choice,as well as for human capital investment and poverty alleviation measures in Northwest China.

The spatial patterns and determinants of internal migration of older adults in China from 1995 to 2015

Although China was one of the countries with the fastest-growing aging population in the world,limited scholarly attention has been paid to migration among older adults in China.The full picture of their migration in the entire country over time remains unknown.This study examines the spatial patterns of older interprovincial migration flows and their drivers in China over the period 1995 to 2015,using four waves of census data and intercensal population sample survey data.Results from eigenvector spatial filtering negative binomial regressions indicate that older adults tend to migrate away from low cost-of-living rural areas to high cost-of-living urban and rural areas,moving away from areas with extreme temperature differences.The location of their grandchildren is among the most important attractions.Our findings suggest that family-oriented migration is more common than amenity-led migration among retired Chinese older adults,and the cost-of-living is an indicator of economic opportunities for adult children and the quality of senior care services.