Does Monetary Support Increase the Number of Scientific Papers？ An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Purpose： One of the main indicators of scientific production is the number of papers published in scholarly journals. Turkey ranks 18th place in the world based on the number of scholarly publications. The objective of this paper is to find out if the monetary support program initiated in 1993 by the Turkish Scientific and Technological Research Council （TUBITAK） to incentivize researchers and increase the number, impact, and quality of international publications has been effective in doing so.Design/methodology/approach： We analyzed some 390,000 publications with Turkish affiliations listed in the Web of Science （WoS） database between 1976 and 2015 along with about 157,000 supported ones between 1997 and 2015. We used the interrupted time series （ITS） analysis technique （also known as ＂quasi-experimental time series analysis＂ or ＂intervention analysis＂） to test if TOBITAK＇s support program helped increase the number of publications. We defined ARIMA （1,1,0） model for ITS data and observed the impact of TOBiTAK＇s support program in 1994, 1997, and 2003 （after one, four and 10 years of its start, respectively）. The majority of publications （93%） were full papers （articles）, which were used as the experimental group while other types of contributions functioned as the control group. We also carried out a multiple regression analysis.Findings： TUBITAK＇s support program has had negligible effect on the increase of the number of papers with Turkish affiliations. Yet, the number of other types of contributions continued to increase even though they were not well supported, suggesting that TUBITAK＇s support program is probably not the main factor causing the increase in the number of papers with Turkish affiliations. Research limitations： Interrupted time series analysis shows if the ＂intervention＂ has had any significant effect on the dependent variable but it does not explain what caused the increase in the number of papers if it was not the intervention. Moreover, except the＂intervention＂, other ＂event（s）＂ that might affect the time series data （e.g., increase in the number of research personnel over the years） should not occur during the period of analysis, a prerequisite that is beyond the control of the researcher. Practical implications： TUBITAK＇s ＂cash-for-publication＂ program did not seem to have direct impact on the increase of the number of papers published by Turkish authors, suggesting that small amounts of payments are not much of an incentive for authors to publish more. It might perhaps be a better strategy to concentrate limited resources on a few high impact projects rather than to disperse them to thousands of authors as ＂micropayments.＂ Originality/value： Based on 25 years＇ worth of payments data, this is perhaps one of the first large-scale studies showing that ＂cash-for-publication＂ policies or ＂piece rates＂ paid to researchers tend to have little or no effect on the increase of researchers＇ productivity. The main finding of this paper has some implications for countries wherein publication subsidies are used as an incentive to increase the number and quality of papers published in international journals. They should be prepared to consider reviewing their existing support programs （based usually on bibliometric measures such as journal impact factors） and revising their reward policies.

Using Interrupted Time Series Design to Analyze Changes in Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Incidence during the Declining Incidence Periods of 2008-2010 in China

Objective To identify patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD） incidence in China during declining incidence periods of 2008, 2009, and 2010. Methods Reported HFMD cases over a period of 25 months were extracted from the National Disease Reporting System （NDRS） and analyzed. An interrupted time series （ITS） technique was used to detect changes in HFMD incidence rates in terms of level and slope between declining incidence periods of the three years. Results Over 3.58 million HFMD cases younger than 5 years were reported to the NDRS between May 1, 2008, and May 31, 2011. Males comprised 63.4% of the cases. ITS analyses demonstrated a significant increase in incidence rate level （P〈0.0001） when comparing the current period with the previous period. There were significant changes in declining slopes when comparing 2010 to 2009, and 2010 to 2008 （all P〈O.O05）, but not 2009 to 2008. Conclusion Incremental changes in incidence rate level during the declining incidence periods of 2009 and 2010 can potentially be attributed to a few factors. The more steeply declining slope in 2010 compared with previous years could be ascribed to the implementation of more effective interventions and preventive strategies in 2010. Further investigation is required to examine this possibility.

COVID-19 economic policy effects on consumer spending and foot traffic in the U.S.

To battle with economic challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic,the US government implemented various measures to mitigate economic loss.From issuance of stimulus checks to reopening businesses,consumers had to constantly alter their behavior in response to government policies.Using anonymized card transactions and mobile device-based location tracking data,we analyze the factors that contribute to these behavior changes,focusing on stimulus check issuance and state-wide reopening.Our finding suggests that stimulus payment has a significant immediate effect of boosting spending,but it typically does not reverse a downward trend.State-wide reopening had a small effect on spending.Foot traffic increased gradually after stimulus check issuance,but only increased slightly after reopening,which also coincided or preceded several policy changes and confounding events(e.g.,protests)in the US.We also find differences in the reaction to these policies in different regions in the US.Our results may be used to inform future economic recovery policies and their potential consumer response.