Time-varying confidence interval forecasting of travel time for urban arterials using ARIMA-GARCH model

To improve the forecasting reliability of travel time, the time-varying confidence interval of travel time on arterials is forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity （ARIMA-GARCH） model. In which, the ARIMA model is used as the mean equation of the GARCH model to model the travel time levels and the GARCH model is used to model the conditional variances of travel time. The proposed method is validated and evaluated using actual traffic flow data collected from the traffic monitoring system of Kunshan city. The evaluation results show that, compared with the conventional ARIMA model, the proposed model cannot significantly improve the forecasting performance of travel time levels but has advantage in travel time volatility forecasting. The proposed model can well capture the travel time heteroskedasticity and forecast the time-varying confidence intervals of travel time which can better reflect the volatility of observed travel times than the fixed confidence interval provided by the ARIMA model.

Market-oriented Optimal Dispatching Strategy for a Wind Farm with a Multiple Stage Hybrid Energy Storage System

With the increased promotion of integrated energy power systems(IEPS),renewable energy and energy storage systems(ESS)play a more important role.However,the fluctuation and intermittent nature of wind not only results in substantial reliability and stability defects,but it also weakens the competitiveness of wind generation in the electric power market.Meanwhile,the way to further enhance the system reliability effectively improving market profits of wind farms is one of the most important aspects of Wind-ESS joint operational design.In this paper,a market-oriented optimized dispatching strategy for a wind farm with a multiple stage hybrid ESS is proposed.The first stage ESS is designed to improve the profits of wind generation through day-ahead market operations,the real-time marketbased second stage ESS is focused on day-ahead forecasting error elimination and wind power fluctuation smoothing,while the backup stage ESS is associated with them to provide the ancillary service.An interval forecasting method is adopted to help to ensure reliable forecast results of day-ahead wind power,electricity prices and loads.With this hybrid ESS design,supply reliability and market profits are simultaneously achieved for wind farms.

Energy Management System Design and Testing for Smart Buildings Under Uncertain Generation (Wind/Photovoltaic) and Demand

This study provides details of the energy management architecture used in the Goldwind microgrid test bed. A complete mathematical model, including all constraints and objectives, for microgrid operational management is first described using a modified prediction interval scheme. Forecasting results are then achieved every 10 min using the modified fuzzy prediction interval model, which is trained by particle swarm optimization.A scenario set is also generated using an unserved power profile and coverage grades of forecasting to compare the feasibility of the proposed method with that of the deterministic approach. The worst case operating points are achieved by the scenario with the maximum transaction cost. In summary, selection of the maximum transaction operating point from all the scenarios provides a cushion against uncertainties in renewable generation and load demand.