Intra-seasonal variability of the abyssal currents in COMRA's contract area in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone

In this paper,the intra-seasonal variability of the abyssal currents in the China Ocean Mineral Resources Association(COMRA)polymetallic nodule contact area,located in the western part of the Clarion and Clipperton Fraction Zone in the tropical East Pacific,is investigated using direct observations from subsurface mooring instruments as well as sea-surface height data and reanalysis products.Mooring observations were conducted from September 13,2017 to August 15,2018 in the COMRA contact area(10°N,154°W).The results were as follows:(1)At depths below 200 m,the kinetic energy of intra-seasonal variability(20-100 d)accounts for more than 40%of the overall low-frequency variability,while the ratio reaches more than 50%below 2000 m.(2)At depths below 200 m,currents show a synchronous oscillation with a characteristic time scale of 30 d,lasting from October to the following January;the energy of the 30-d oscillation increases with depth until the layer of approximately 4616 m,and the maximum velocity is approximately 10 cm/s.(3)The 30-d oscillation of deep currents is correlated with the tropical instability waves in the upper ocean.

Assessment of Intra-Seasonal Variability and Trends of Precipitations in a Climate Change Framework in West Africa

Climate change has led human beings to take an interest in the study of meteorological and climatic phenomena. In fact, the main impact of climate change on different sectors of society is caused by extreme events since the occurrence of extreme events leads to more impact related to change in mean climate. Unfortunately, the West African region is vulnerable to extreme rainfall impact because its economy is based on rain-fed agriculture. This study examined the seasonal variability of extreme rainfall in West Africa. Eight (8) climate indices were chosen from among the 27 defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used to assess the seasonal trends. The indices of the same types (frequency or intensity) were compared to assess the intra-seasonal variation of extreme precipitation. The results indicate that, regardless of the season, the Gulf of Guinea receives more rainfall than the Sahel. This phenomenon is due to the fact that the coastal part of West Africa is under the influence of evaporation which is observed at the Atlantic Ocean and during the monsoon, while the other part is dominated by the desert. Mann-Kendall’s test revealed upward and downward trends during each season. The increase in extreme rainfall trends in the number of consecutive dry days suggests that droughts, due to global warming, could be observed and could have severe consequences in terms of water availability, energy supply, agricultural yields and ecosystems in West Africa. In addition, it can lead to the loss of biodiversity and health issues. It is therefore essential for policymakers or decisions makers to determine strategies and mitigation measures against climate change and its impacts on populations.

A Comparative Study of Intra-Seasonal Variability of Total Column Ozone Measured over the Tropical Maritime and Coastal Stations Using Microtop II Ozonometer

The study of temporal and spatial distribution of ozone is very important for understanding the atmospheric chemistry and thereby its impact on environment, weather and climate. The intra-seasonal variability plays a major role in the inter-annual variability of weather parameters such as rainfall, temperature, pressure and atmospheric trace gas constituents such as atmospheric ozone. The strength of monsoon circulation and deep convection greatly modifies the atmospheric compositions and meteorological parameters such as rainfall amount, distributions of atmospheric trace gas concentrations and other weather parameters over the summer monsoon region. The daily total column ozone (TCO) measured over maritime station (Lakshadweep Island— 10°10'N & 73°30'E) and coastal station (Cochin—9°55'N and 76°16'E) using Microtop II Ozonometer were considered for the comparative study of seasonal and intra-seasonal variability for the year 2015. The annual average of total column ozone over Lakshadweep Islands and Cochin was 290 DU and 280 DU respectively for the year 2015. The greater concentrations in daily TCO measurements over Lakshadweep Islands for all seasons compared to Cochin lead to the speculations that, the surface ozone concentration is more because of pollution from the diesel burning emissions, since the whole Island’s population completely depends on diesel generator for the power supply. During winter season maritime station shows a decrease of ~30 DU in TCO over Lak-shadweep Island compared to coastal station Cochin (~18 DU) from the annual mean in the month of December. During pre-monsoon season TCO concentration is high over both locations. There is gradual increase of TCO concentration over Cochin from pre-monsoon to monsoon season and peak in the month of September, but decreasing TCO concentrations measured over Lakshadweep during July to August. In the analysis it was found that Intra-Seasonal Variability (ISV) in total column ozone over Lakshadweep Islands and Cochin during summer monsoon season was modulated by the monsoon dynamics and convection, thereby changes in the photochemistry of ozone production and distributions over the monsoon region. Two significant intra-seasonal oscillations (ISOs) such as Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Quasi-Biweekly Oscillations (QBW) were identified in the TCO during monsoon season. The MJO shows higher periodicity (~54 days) over Lakshadweep Islands compared to the coastal station, Cochin (~48 days). Intra-seasonal variability of TCO over the maritime and coastal stations varies with geographic locations, marine boundary layer characteristics and also with seasons. The intra-seasonal variability or ISOs controls the interannual variability of TCO over a region. Hence deeper knowledge of ISOs in trace gases such as ozone helps us to understand more about the regional climate and air quality.

Amplification effect of intra-seasonal variability of soil moisture on heat extremes over Eurasia

Drying soil has been conducive to a high frequency of extreme high-temperature events over many regions worldwide in recent decades.However,changes in the intraseasonal variability of soil moisture can also influence the likelihood of extremely high temperatures.Although previous investigators have examined the association between extremely high temperatures and large-scale atmospheric circulation variability,the role of land-atmosphere coupling dominated by soil moisture variability in extremely high temperatures,particularly over the Eurasian continent,is not well understood.In this study,on the basis of the Land Surface,Snow,and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project,we found that land-atmosphere feedback amplified the variability of soil moisture in most regions of Eurasia during summer from 1980 to 2014.This amplification of soil moisture variability is closely correlated with more intensive intraseasonal variability of surface air temperature and more frequent occurrences of extreme high-temperature events,particularly in Europe,Siberia,Northeast Asia,and the Indochina Peninsula.This correlation implies that increasing the intraseasonal variability of soil moisture results in a high likelihood of heat extremes during summer in most parts of Eurasia except Asian desert areas.On the intraseasonal timescale,the land-atmosphere coupling increases the variability of surface sensible heat flux and net long-wave radiation heating the atmosphere by intensifying the soil moisture variability,thus amplifying the variability of surface air temperature and enhancing the extreme high-temperature days.This finding demonstrates the importance of changes in intraseasonal soil moisture variability for the increasing likelihood of heat extremes in summer.

Responses of Annual Variability of Vegetation NPP to Climate Variables Using Satellite Techniques in Gadarif State, Sudan

Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into photosynthesis. It is very sensible for factors affecting on vegetation variability such as climate, soils, plant characteristics and human activities. So, it can be used as an indicator of actual and potential trend of vegetation. In this study we used the actual NPP which was derived from MODIS to assess the response of NPP to climate variables in Gadarif State, from 2000 to 2010. The correlations between NPP and climate variables (temperature and precipitation) are calculated using Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient and ordinary least squares regression. The main results show the following 1) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and mean annual temperature is Somewhat negative for Feshaga, Rahd, Gadarif and Galabat areas and weakly negative in Faw area;2) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and annual total precipitation is weakly negative in Faw, Rahd and Galabat areas and somewhat negative in Galabat and Rahd areas. This study demonstrated that the correlation analysis between NPP and climate variables (precipitation and temperature) gives reliably result of NPP responses to climate variables that is clearly in a very large scale of study area.

The influence of resistance exercise training prescription variables on skeletal muscle mass,strength,and physical function in healthy adults:An umbrella review

Purpose:The aim of this umbrella review was to determine the impact of resistance training(RT)and individual RT prescription variables on muscle mass,strength,and physical function in healthy adults.Methods:Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses(PRISMA)guidelines,we systematically searched and screened eligible systematic reviews reporting the effects of differing RT prescription variables on muscle mass(or its proxies),strength,and/or physical function in healthy adults aged>18 years.Results:We identified 44 systematic reviews that met our inclusion criteria.The methodological quality of these reviews was assessed using A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews;standardized effectiveness statements were generated.We found that RT was consistently a potent stimulus for increasing skeletal muscle mass(4/4 reviews provide some or sufficient evidence),strength(4/6 reviews provided some or sufficient evidence),and physical function(1/1 review provided some evidence).RT load(6/8 reviews provided some or sufficient evidence),weekly frequency(2/4 reviews provided some or sufficient evidence),volume(3/7 reviews provided some or sufficient evidence),and exercise order(1/1 review provided some evidence)impacted RT-induced increases in muscular strength.We discovered that 2/3 reviews provided some or sufficient evidence that RT volume and contraction velocity influenced skeletal muscle mass,while 4/7 reviews provided insufficient evidence in favor of RT load impacting skeletal muscle mass.There was insufficient evidence to conclude that time of day,periodization,inter-set rest,set configuration,set end point,contraction velocity/time under tension,or exercise order(only pertaining to hypertrophy)influenced skeletal muscle adaptations.A paucity of data limited insights into the impact of RT prescription variables on physical function.Conclusion:Overall,RT increased muscle mass,strength,and physical function compared to no exercise.RT intensity(load)and weekly frequency impacted RT-induced increases in muscular strength but not muscle hypertrophy.RT volume(number of sets)influenced muscular strength and hypertrophy.

An Assessment of the Projected Future Intra-Seasonal Rainfall Characteristics in Uganda

Rainfall is a key climate parameter that affects most operations that affect human life, especially in the tropics. Therefore, understanding the various factors that affect the distribution and intensity of this rainfall is important for effective planning among the different stakeholders in the weather and climate sectors. This study aimed at understanding how intra seasonal rainfall characteristics, especially Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) and Consecutive Wet Days (CWD), in the two major rainfall seasons will change under two future climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Uganda, covering two future periods of 2021-2050 and 2051-2080. The results indicate a high likelihood of reduced consecutive rainfall days, especially over the Northeastern regions of the country, for both 2021-2050 and 2051-2080. However, the trends in the entire country for the two major rainfall seasons, March to May and September to November, are not significant. Nonetheless, the distribution of these days is important for most agricultural activities during different stages of crop growth. The consecutive dry days show a fairly increasing trend in the eastern part of the country, particularly in the second season of September to November. An increase in consecutive dry days implies more frequent dry spells in the midst of the growing season, potentially affecting some crops during critical growth stages.

A Stroke-Limitation AMD Control System with Variable Gain and Limited Area for High-Rise Buildings

Collisions between a moving mass and an anti-collision device increase structural responses and threaten structural safety.An active mass damper(AMD)with stroke limitations is often used to avoid collisions.However,a strokelimited AMD control system with a fixed limited area shortens the available AMD stroke and leads to significant control power.To solve this problem,the design approach with variable gain and limited area(VGLA)is proposed in this study.First,the boundary of variable-limited areas is calculated based on the real-time status of the moving mass.The variable gain(VG)expression at the variable limited area is deduced by considering the saturation of AMD stroke.Then,numerical simulations of a stroke-limited AMD control system with VGLA are conducted on a high-rise building structure.These numerical simulations show that the proposed approach has superior strokelimitation performance compared with a stroke-limited AMD control system with a fixed limited area.Finally,the proposed approach is validated through experiments on a four-story steel frame.

A novel variable-order fractional chaotic map and its dynamics

In recent years,fractional-order chaotic maps have been paid more attention in publications because of the memory effect.This paper presents a novel variable-order fractional sine map(VFSM)based on the discrete fractional calculus.Specially,the order is defined as an iterative function that incorporates the current state of the system.By analyzing phase diagrams,time sequences,bifurcations,Lyapunov exponents and fuzzy entropy complexity,the dynamics of the proposed map are investigated comparing with the constant-order fractional sine map.The results reveal that the variable order has a good effect on improving the chaotic performance,and it enlarges the range of available parameter values as well as reduces non-chaotic windows.Multiple coexisting attractors also enrich the dynamics of VFSM and prove its sensitivity to initial values.Moreover,the sequence generated by the proposed map passes the statistical test for pseudorandom number and shows strong robustness to parameter estimation,which proves the potential applications in the field of information security.

Extent and Structure of Phenotypic Variability in Solenostemon rotundifolius Germplasm from Ghana and Burkina Faso

Solenostemon rotundifolius is a species belonging to the Lamiaceae family. It is currently one of the minor plants of high socio-economic interest. One of the limitations to promoting this species in Burkina Faso is the lack of varieties that meet consumers’ demands. Implementing a breeding program is an important step toward achieving this goal. Such a program is based on the variability of agronomical traits of interest within evaluated germplasm. This study aimed to assess the level of two germplasms variability of S. rotundifolius from Ghana and Burkina Faso for traits related to vegetative development, cycle, and yield. Agromorphological characterization of 174 accessions, including 116 from Ghana and 58 from Burkina Faso was carried out in Randomised Complete Block Design with three replications. The characterization was made on the basis of fifteen (15) quantitative traits related to the canopy and leaf size, the cycle, and the yield. Analysis of variance revealed significant differences between accessions within each germplasm for all the evaluated traits. The analysis of the structuration of this agromorphological variability allowed organizing the accessions into different groups. These results could lead to the identification of accessions within each germplasm for breeding purposes or future research on genotype-environment interactions.

An approximate analytical model for unconventional reservoir considering variable matrix blocks and simultaneous matrix depletion

In regard to unconventional oil reservoirs,the transient dual-porosity and triple-porosity models have been adopted to describe the fluid flow in the complex fracture network.It has been proven to cause inaccurate production evaluations because of the absence of matrix-macrofracture communication.In addition,most of the existing models are solved analytically based on Laplace transform and numerical inversion.Hence,an approximate analytical solution is derived directly in real-time space considering variable matrix blocks and simultaneous matrix depletion.To simplify the derivation,the simultaneous matrix depletion is divided into two parts:one part feeding the macrofractures and the other part feeding the microfractures.Then,a series of partial differential equations(PDEs)describing the transient flow and boundary conditions are constructed and solved analytically by integration.Finally,a relationship between oil rate and production time in real-time space is obtained.The new model is verified against classical analytical models.When the microfracture system and matrix-macrofracture communication is neglected,the result of the new model agrees with those obtained with the dual-porosity and triple-porosity model,respectively.Certainly,the new model also has an excellent agreement with the numerical model.The model is then applied to two actual tight oil wells completed in western Canada sedimentary basin.After identifying the flow regime,the solution suitably matches the field production data,and the model parameters are determined.Through these output parameters,we can accurately forecast the production and even estimate the petrophysical properties.

Geospatial Variability of Cholera Cases in Malawi Based on Climatic and Socioeconomic Influences

Cholera remains a public health threat in most developing countries in Asia and Africa including Malawi with seasonal recurrent outbreaks. Malawi’s recent Cholera outbreak in 2022 and 2023, exhibited higher morbidity and mortality rates than the past two decades. Lack of spatiotemporal-based technology and variability assessment tools in Malawi’s Cholera monitoring and management, limit our understanding of the disease’s epidemiology. The present work developed a spatiotemporal variability model for Cholera disease at district level and its relationship to socioeconomic and climatic factors based on cumulative confirmed Cholera cases in Malawi from March 2022 to July 2023 using Z-score statistic and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) in a Geographical Information System (GIS). We found out that socioeconomic factors such as access to safe drinking water, population density and poverty level, and climatic factors including temperature and rainfall strongly influenced Cholera prevalence in a complex and multifaceted manner. The model shows that Lilongwe, Mangochi, Blantyre and Balaka districts were highly vulnerable to Cholera disease followed by lakeshore districts of Salima, Nkhotakota, Nkhata-Bay and Karonga than other districts. We recommend strategic measures such as Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) interventions, community awareness on proper water storage, Cholera case management, vaccination campaigns and spatial-based surveillance systems in the most affected districts. This research has shown that MGWR, as a surveillance system, has the potential of providing insights on the disease’s spatial patterns for public health authorities to identify high-risk districts and implement early response interventions to reduce the spread of the disease.

Intraseasonal variability of the Kuroshio observed via mooring at 18°N

Insufficient observations near the origin of the Kuroshio have led to incomplete understanding of the intraseasonal variability(ISV)of the Kuroshio.Direct measurements of the Kuroshio velocity were performed with an array of three profiler moorings(122.7°E,123°E,and 123.3°E)along 18°N from January 2018 to February 2020.The ISV of the Kuroshio at 18°N was investigated based on a combination of mooring observations and global high-resolution HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model reanalysis data.The estimated time-averaged transport in the upper 350 m across the observation transect was 6.5±2.6 Sv(1.0 Sv=10^(6)m^(3)/s).Two significant ISV peaks at 50-60 and~100 d were recognized in the power spectra of the meridional velocity and transport.Further analysis indicated that the ISV at 50-60 d was caused by westward-propagating eddies at average propagation speed of~13 cm/s and wavelength of~635 km.Another ISV peak at~100 d was mainly caused by northward-propagating eddies generated in the North Equatorial Current region.Further investigation indicated that the ISV of the Kuroshio at 18°N is dominated by meridional transport,rather than by the zonal migration of the Kuroshio main axis.Our findings provide a better understanding of the ISV of the Kuroshio east of Luzon Island.

Improvement and security analysis of multi-ring discrete modulation continuous variable quantum secret sharing scheme

In order to avoid the complexity of Gaussian modulation and the problem that the traditional point-to-point communication DM-CVQKD protocol cannot meet the demand for multi-user key sharing at the same time, we propose a multi-ring discrete modulation continuous variable quantum key sharing scheme(MR-DM-CVQSS). In this paper, we primarily compare single-ring and multi-ring M-symbol amplitude and phase-shift keying modulations. We analyze their asymptotic key rates against collective attacks and consider the security key rates under finite-size effects. Leveraging the characteristics of discrete modulation, we improve the quantum secret sharing scheme. Non-dealer participants only require simple phase shifters to complete quantum secret sharing. We also provide the general design of the MR-DM-CVQSS protocol.We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the improved protocol's performance, confirming that the enhancement through multi-ring M-PSK allows for longer-distance quantum key distribution. Additionally, it reduces the deployment complexity of the system, thereby increasing the practical value.

Influence of variable viscosity and double diffusion on the convective stability of a nanofluid flow in an inclined porous channel

The influence of variable viscosity and double diffusion on the convective stability of a nanofluid flow in an inclined porous channel is investigated.The DarcyBrinkman model is used to characterize the fluid flow dynamics in porous materials.The analytical solutions are obtained for the unidirectional and completely developed flow.Based on a normal mode analysis,the generalized eigenvalue problem under a perturbed state is solved.The eigenvalue problem is then solved by the spectral method.Finally,the critical Rayleigh number with the corresponding wavenumber is evaluated at the assigned values of the other flow-governing parameters.The results show that increasing the Darcy number,the Lewis number,the Dufour parameter,or the Soret parameter increases the stability of the system,whereas increasing the inclination angle of the channel destabilizes the flow.Besides,the flow is the most unstable when the channel is vertically oriented.

Application of Predictive Model for Efficient Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) Yield in the Face of Climate Variability in Enugu State, Nigeria

Climate variability as occasioned by conditions such as extreme rainfall and temperature, rainfall cessation, and irregular temperatures has considerable impact on crop yield and food security. This study develops a predictive model for cassava yield (Manihot esculenta Crantz) amidst climate variability in rainfed zone of Enugu State, Nigeria. This study utilized data of climate variables and tonnage of cassava yield spanning from 1971 to 2012;as well as information from a questionnaire and focus group discussion from farmers across two seasons in 2023 respectively. Regression analysis was employed to develop the predictive model equation for seasonal climate variability and cassava yield. The rainfall and temperature anomalies, decadal change in trend of cassava yield and opinion of farmers on changes in rainfall season were also computed in the study. The result shows the following relationship between cassava and all the climatic variables: R2 = 0.939;P = 0.00514;Cassava and key climatic variables: R2 = 0.560;P = 0.007. The result implies that seasonal rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours and radiation parameters are key climatic variables in cassava production. This is supported by computed rainfall and temperature anomalies which range from −478.5 to 517.8 mm as well as −1.2˚C to 2.3˚C over the years. The questionnaire and focus group identified that farmers experienced at one time or another, late onset of rain, early onset of rain or rainfall cessation over the years. The farmers are not particularly sure of rainfall and temperature characteristics at any point in time. The implication of the result of this study is that rainfall and temperature parameters determine the farming season and quantity of productivity. Hence, there is urgent need to address the situation through effective and quality weather forecasting network which will help stem food insecurity in the study area and Nigeria at large. The study made recommendations such as a comprehensive early warning system on climate variability incidence which can be communicated to local farmers by agro-meteorological extension officers, research on crops that can grow with little or no rain, planning irrigation scheme, and improving tree planting culture in the study area.

Large-scale particle trapping by acoustic vortices with a continuously variable topological charge

Strengthened directivity with higher-order side lobes can be generated by the transducer with a larger radius at a higher frequency. The multi-annular pressure distributions are displayed in the cross-section of the acoustic vortices(AVs)which are formed by side lobes. In the near field, particles can be trapped in the valley region between the two annuli of the pressure peak, and cannot be moved to the vortex center. In this paper, a trapping method based on a sector transducer array is proposed, which is characterized by the continuously variable topological charge(CVTC). This acoustic field can not only enlarge the range of particle trapping but also improve the aggregation degree of the trapped particles. In the experiments, polyethylene particles with a diameter of 0.2 mm are trapped into the multi-annular valleys by the AV with a fixed topological charge. Nevertheless, by applying the CVTC, particles outside the radius of the AV can cross the pressure peak successfully and move to the vortex center. Theoretical studies are also verified by the experimental particles trapping using the AV with the continuous variation of three topological charges, and suggest the potential application of large-scale particle trapping in biomedical engineering.

Discovering Latent Variables for the Tasks With Confounders in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Efficient exploration in complex coordination tasks has been considered a challenging problem in multi-agent reinforcement learning(MARL). It is significantly more difficult for those tasks with latent variables that agents cannot directly observe. However, most of the existing latent variable discovery methods lack a clear representation of latent variables and an effective evaluation of the influence of latent variables on the agent. In this paper, we propose a new MARL algorithm based on the soft actor-critic method for complex continuous control tasks with confounders. It is called the multi-agent soft actor-critic with latent variable(MASAC-LV) algorithm, which uses variational inference theory to infer the compact latent variables representation space from a large amount of offline experience.Besides, we derive the counterfactual policy whose input has no latent variables and quantify the difference between the actual policy and the counterfactual policy via a distance function. This quantified difference is considered an intrinsic motivation that gives additional rewards based on how much the latent variable affects each agent. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on two collaboration tasks with confounders, and the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of MASAC-LV compared to other baseline algorithms.

Evaluating the Efficacy of Latent Variables in Mitigating Data Poisoning Attacks in the Context of Bayesian Networks:An Empirical Study

Bayesian networks are a powerful class of graphical decision models used to represent causal relationships among variables.However,the reliability and integrity of learned Bayesian network models are highly dependent on the quality of incoming data streams.One of the primary challenges with Bayesian networks is their vulnerability to adversarial data poisoning attacks,wherein malicious data is injected into the training dataset to negatively influence the Bayesian network models and impair their performance.In this research paper,we propose an efficient framework for detecting data poisoning attacks against Bayesian network structure learning algorithms.Our framework utilizes latent variables to quantify the amount of belief between every two nodes in each causal model over time.We use our innovative methodology to tackle an important issue with data poisoning assaults in the context of Bayesian networks.With regard to four different forms of data poisoning attacks,we specifically aim to strengthen the security and dependability of Bayesian network structure learning techniques,such as the PC algorithm.By doing this,we explore the complexity of this area and offer workablemethods for identifying and reducing these sneaky dangers.Additionally,our research investigates one particular use case,the“Visit to Asia Network.”The practical consequences of using uncertainty as a way to spot cases of data poisoning are explored in this inquiry,which is of utmost relevance.Our results demonstrate the promising efficacy of latent variables in detecting and mitigating the threat of data poisoning attacks.Additionally,our proposed latent-based framework proves to be sensitive in detecting malicious data poisoning attacks in the context of stream data.

Inverse reliability analysis and design for tunnel face stability considering soil spatial variability

The traditional deterministic analysis for tunnel face stability neglects the uncertainties of geotechnical parameters,while the simplified reliability analysis which models the potential uncertainties by means of random variables usually fails to account for soil spatial variability.To overcome these limitations,this study proposes an efficient framework for conducting reliability analysis and reliability-based design(RBD)of tunnel face stability in spatially variable soil strata.The three-dimensional(3D)rotational failure mechanism of the tunnel face is extended to account for the soil spatial variability,and a probabilistic framework is established by coupling the extended mechanism with the improved Hasofer-Lind-Rackwits-Fiessler recursive algorithm(iHLRF)as well as its inverse analysis formulation.The proposed framework allows for rapid and precise reliability analysis and RBD of tunnel face stability.To demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed framework,an illustrative case of tunnelling in frictional soils is presented,where the soil's cohesion and friction angle are modelled as two anisotropic cross-correlated lognormal random fields.The results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the failure probability(or reliability index)regarding the tunnel face stability and can efficiently determine the required supporting pressure for a target reliability index with soil spatial variability being taken into account.Furthermore,this study reveals the impact of various factors on the support pressure,including coefficient of variation,cross-correlation between cohesion and friction angle,as well as autocorrelation distance of spatially variable soil strata.The results also demonstrate the feasibility of using the forward and/or inverse first-order reliability method(FORM)in high-dimensional stochastic problems.It is hoped that this study may provide a practical and reliable framework for determining the stability of tunnels in complex soil strata.