Intraseasonal variability of the Kuroshio observed via mooring at 18°N

Insufficient observations near the origin of the Kuroshio have led to incomplete understanding of the intraseasonal variability(ISV)of the Kuroshio.Direct measurements of the Kuroshio velocity were performed with an array of three profiler moorings(122.7°E,123°E,and 123.3°E)along 18°N from January 2018 to February 2020.The ISV of the Kuroshio at 18°N was investigated based on a combination of mooring observations and global high-resolution HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model reanalysis data.The estimated time-averaged transport in the upper 350 m across the observation transect was 6.5±2.6 Sv(1.0 Sv=10^(6)m^(3)/s).Two significant ISV peaks at 50-60 and~100 d were recognized in the power spectra of the meridional velocity and transport.Further analysis indicated that the ISV at 50-60 d was caused by westward-propagating eddies at average propagation speed of~13 cm/s and wavelength of~635 km.Another ISV peak at~100 d was mainly caused by northward-propagating eddies generated in the North Equatorial Current region.Further investigation indicated that the ISV of the Kuroshio at 18°N is dominated by meridional transport,rather than by the zonal migration of the Kuroshio main axis.Our findings provide a better understanding of the ISV of the Kuroshio east of Luzon Island.

Characteristics and mechanisms of the intraseasonal variability of sea surface salinity in the southeastern Arabian Sea during 2015-2020

Based on Soil Moisture Active Passive sea surface salinity(SSS)data from April 2015 to August 2020,combined with Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Heat Flux and other observational data and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model(HYCOM)data,this work explores the characteristics and mechanisms of the intraseasonal variability of SSS in the southeastern Arabian Sea(SEAS).The results show that the intraseasonal variability of SSS in the SEAS is very significant,especially the strongest intraseasonal signal in SSS,which is located along the northeast monsoon current(NMC)path south of the Indian Peninsula.There are remarkable seasonal differences in intraseasonal SSS variability,which is very weak in spring and summer and much stronger in autumn and winter.This strong intraseasonal variability in autumn and winter is closely related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)event during this period.The northeast wind anomaly in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)associated with the active MJO phase strengthens the East India Coastal Current and NMC and consequently induces more BOB low-salinity water to enter the SEAS,causing strong SSS fluctuations.In addition,MJO-related precipitation further amplifies the intraseasonal variability of SSS in SEAS.Based on budget analysis of the mixed layer salinity using HYCOM data,it is shown that horizontal salinity advection(especially zonal advection)dominates the intraseasonal variability of mixed layer salinity and that surface freshwater flux has a secondary role.

The 30–60-day Intraseasonal Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea during May–September

This study investigates the structure and propagation of intraseasonal sea surface temperature（SST） variability in the South China Sea（SCS） on the 30-60-day timescale during boreal summer（May-September）. TRMM-based SST, GODAS oceanic reanalysis and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis datasets from 1998 to 2013 are used to examine quantitatively the atmospheric thermodynamic and oceanic dynamic mechanisms responsible for its formation. Power spectra show that the 30-60-day SST variability is predominant, accounting for 60% of the variance of the 10-90-day variability over most of the SCS. Composite analyses demonstrate that the 30-60-day SST variability is characterized by the alternate occurrence of basin-wide positive and negative SST anomalies in the SCS, with positive（negative） SST anomalies accompanied by anomalous northeasterlies（southwesterlies）. The transition and expansion of SST anomalies are driven by the monsoonal trough-ridge seesaw pattern that migrates northward from the equator to the northern SCS. Quantitative diagnosis of the composite mixed-layer heat budgets shows that, within a strong 30-60-day cycle, the atmospheric thermal forcing is indeed a dominant factor, with the mixed-layer net heat flux（MNHF） contributing around 60% of the total SST tendency, while vertical entrainment contributes more than 30%. However, the entrainment-induced SST tendency is sometimes as large as the MNHF-induced component, implying that ocean processes are sometimes as important as surface fluxes in generating the30-60-day SST variability in the SCS.

Intraseasonal variability of the Kuroshio east of Taiwan, China, observed by subsurface mooring during 2016–2017

The mean velocity structure and variability of the Kuroshio east of Taiwan,China,were investigated using mooring observations acquired at 23°N/122°E between January 2016 and May 2017.Power spectrum analysis reveals marked intraseasonal variability in 70–95 days in the meridional Kuroshio velocity in the upper 800 m.Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model assimilation data adequately reproduce variations of the Kuroshio.Westward propagating mesoscale eddies that originated from the Subtropical Countercurrent play an important role in intraseasonal variability in the Kuroshio velocity.Cyclonic(anticyclonic)eddies are often associated with negative(positive)sea surface height anomaly,resulting in positive(negative)potential vorticity in the subsurface layer of the eddy center,which decreases(increases)isopycnal slope and then weakens(strengthens)the Kuroshio.When anticyclonic(cyclonic)eddies are active,the Kuroshio axis moves off shore(inshore).Corresponding to the Kuroshio intraseasonal variability(ISV),the variation of the intermediate water salinity also had a signifi cant ISV induced by the mesoscale eddies.

Intraseasonal variability of the surface zonal current in the equatorial Indian Ocean:Seasonal differences and causes

Using observations and numerical simulations,this study examines the intraseasonal variability of the surface zonal current(u ISV)over the equatorial Indian Ocean,highlighting the seasonal and spatial differences,and the causes of the differences.Large-amplitude u ISV occurs in the eastern basin at around 80°–90°E and near the western boundary at 45°–55°E.In the eastern basin,the u ISV is mainly caused by the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs),which explains 91%of the standard deviation of the total u ISV.Further analysis suggests that it takes less than ten days for the intraseasonal zonal wind stress to generate the u ISV through the directly forced Kelvin and Rossby waves.Driven by the stronger zonal wind stress associated with the Indian summer monsoon ISO(MISO),the eastern u ISV in boreal summer(May to October)is about 1.5 times larger than that in boreal winter(November to April).In the western basin,both the atmospheric ISOs and the oceanic internal instabilities contribute substantially to the u ISV,and induce stronger u ISV in boreal summer.Energy budget analysis suggests that the mean flow converts energy to the intraseasonal current mainly through barotropic instabilities.

Intraseasonal variability of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and its relationship with ENSO based on Self-Organizing Maps analysis

We investigated the intraseasonal variability of equatorial Pacific subsurface temperature and its relationship with El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) using Self-Organizing Maps(SOM) analysis.Variation in intraseasonal subsurface temperature is mainly found along the thermocline.The SOM patterns concentrate in basin-wide seesaw or sandwich structures along an east-west axis.Both the seesaw and sandwich SOM patterns oscillate with periods of 55 to 90 days,with the sequence of them showing features of equatorial intraseasonal Kelvin wave,and have marked interannual variations in their occurrence frequencies.Further examination shows that the interannual variability of the SOM patterns is closely related to ENSO;and maxima in composite interannual variability of the SOM patterns are located in the central Pacific during CP El Nino and in the eastern Pacific during EP El Nino.The se results imply that some of the ENSO forcing is manife sted through changes in the occurrence frequency of intraseasonal patterns,in which the change of the intraseasonal Kelvin wave plays an important role.

Intraseasonal Variability of Summertime Surface Air Temperature over Mid-High-Latitude Eurasia and Its Prediction Skill in S2S Models

Features of the dominant modes of surface air temperature(SAT)on the intraseasonal timescale over the mid-highlatitude Eurasia(MHE)during boreal summer(June-September)are investigated based on the ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016.The intraseasonal variability(ISV)of SAT over MHE is primarily characterized by an eastward propagation along 60°N,which is found to impact the regional weather in China,including summertime extreme hot and cool events.The forecast skill and potential predictability of the ISV of SAT over MHE are assessed for 5 dynamical models that have participated in the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2 S)prediction project,by analyzing12 years’(1999-2010)model reforecast/hindcast data.By using the principal component(PC)index of the leading intraseasonal SAT modes as a predictand,we found that the forecast skill for ISV of SAT can reach out to 11-17 days,and the ECMWF model exhibits the best score.All the S2 S models tend to show 1)a relatively higher skill for strong intraseasonal oscillation(ISO)cases,2)a systematic underestimate of the amplitude of the SAT ISV signal,and 3)different skills during different phases of ISO cases.Analysis of potential predictability based on the perfectmodel assumption reveals a 4-6-day skill gap for most models,and the skill gap also varies among different phases of ISO events.The results imply the need for continued development of operational forecasting systems to improve the actual prediction skills for the ISV of SAT over MHE.

Modulation of the Intraseasonal Variability of Pacific-Japan Pattern by ENSO

This study investigates how the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)modulates the intraseasonal variability(ISV)of Pacific-Japan(PJ)teleconnection pattern.The PJ index during boreal summer is constructed from the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)of the 850-hPa zonal wind(U850)anomalies.Distinct periods of the PJ index are found during El Nino and La Nina summers.Although ISV of the PJ pattern is significant during 10-25 days for both types of summers,it peaks on Days 30 and 60 in El Nino and La Nina summers respectively.During El Nino summers,the 30-day ISV of PJ pattern is related to the northwestward propagating intraseasonal oscillation(ISO)over the western North Pacific(WNP),which is originated from the tropical Indian Ocean(IO).During La Nina summers,the 60-day ISV of PJ pattern is related to the northeastward propagating ISO from the tropical IO.The low-frequency ISV modes in both El Nino and La Nina summers are closely related to the boreal summer ISO(BSISO),and the high-frequency ISV modes over WNP are related to the quasi-biweekly oscillation.The underlying mechanisms for these different evolutions are also discussed.

On the Differences in the Intraseasonal Rainfall Variability between Western and Eastern Central Africa: Case of 25 - 70-Day Oscillations

The intraseasonal timescale is critical in Central Africa, because the resources of the region are highly rainfall dependent. In this paper, we use 1DD GPCP rainfall product to investigate the differences in the space-time structures of the 25 - 70-day intraseasonal variability of rainfall, over the Western Central Africa (WCA) and the Eastern Central Africa (ECA), with different climate features. The results of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) analysis have shown that the amount of variance explained by the leading EOFs is greater in ECA (58.4%) than in WCA (49.8%). For both WCA and ECA, the power spectra of the Principal Components (PCs) peaked around 40 days, indicating a MJO signal. The seasonality of ISO is evident, but this seasonality is much noticeable in ECA where almost 80% of the total yearly ISO power occurs during November-April season, against only around 60% for WCA. Moreover, the lagged cross correlations computed between WCA and ECA PCs time series showed that most of the WCA PCs led ECA PCs time series with a timescale of 8 - 12 days, revealing that the eastward propagation could potentially be the relationship between WCA and ECA modes. The interannual variations in the ISO activity are weak in WCA, when compared with ECA where the signal exhibits larger interannual variations, quite linked with ENSO.

SST effect on the pre-monsoon intraseasonal oscillation over the South China Sea based on atmospheric-coupled GCM comparison

The role of sea surface temperature(SST)variability in the pre-monsoonal(April to July)intraseasonal oscillation(ISO)over the South China Sea(SCS)is investigated using the Community Earth System Model Version 2(CESM2).An Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)simulation forced by daily sea surface temperatures(SSTs)derived from a parallel coupled general circulation model(CGCM)run was compared with observations and the mother coupled simulation.In the coupled model,the SST warming leads the peak convection about 1/4 period as in observations.The paralell uncoupled model fails to simulate this phase relationship,implying the importance of air-sea coupling in reproducing realistic ISO.Due to the near-quadrature phase relationship between SST and precipitation ISOs during the ISO events,it is difficult to distinguish the active/passive role of SST from observations alone.Significant correlation in intraseasonal precipitation between the daily SST-forced AMIP and mother CGCM runs indicates that SST plays a role in driving the atmospheric ISO.

Relationships between Interannual and Intraseasonal Variations of the Asian–Western Pacific Summer Monsoon Hindcasted by BCC CSM 1.1(m)

Using hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, the relationships between interannual variability （IAV） and intraseasonal variability （ISV） of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon are diagnosed. Predictions show reasonable skill with respect to some basic characteristics of the ISV and IAV of the western North Pacific summer monsoon （WNPSM） and the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）. However, the links between the seasonally averaged ISV （SAISV） and seasonal mean of ISM are overestimated by the model. This deficiency may be partially attributable to the overestimated frequency of long breaks and underestimated frequency of long active spells of ISV in normal ISM years, although the model is capable of capturing the impact of ISV on the seasonal mean by its shift in the probability of phases. Furthermore, the interannual relationships of seasonal mean, SAISV, and seasonally averaged long-wave variability （SALWV; i.e., the part with periods longer than the intraseasonal scale） of the WNPSM and ISM with SST and low-level circulation are examined. The observed seasonal mean, SAISV, and SALWV show similar correlation patterns with SST and atmospheric circulation, but with different details. However, the model presents these correlation distributions with unrealistically small differences among different scales, and it somewhat overestimates the teleconnection between monsoon and tropical central-eastern Pacific SST for the ISM, but underestimates it for the WNPSM, the latter of which is partially related to the too-rapid decrease in the impact of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation with forecast time in the model.

Assessment of intraseasonal variabilities in China Ocean Reanalysis(CORA)

A regional reanalysis product-China Ocean Reanalysis（CORA）-has been developed for the China＇s seas and the adjacent areas. In this study, the intraseasonal variabilities（ISVs） in CORA are assessed by comparing with observations and two other reanalysis products（ECCO2 and SODA）. CORA shows a better performance in capturing the intraseasonal sea surface temperatures（SSTs） and the intraseasonal sea surface heights（SSHs） than ECCO2 and SODA do, probably due to its high resolution, stronger response to the intraseasonal forcing in the atmosphere（especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation）, and more available regional data for assimilation. But at the subsurface, the ISVs in CORA are likely to be weaker than reality, which is probably attributed to rare observational data for assimilation and weak diapycnal eddy diffusivity in the CORA model. According to the comparison results, CORA is a good choice for the study related to variabilities at the surface, but cares have to be taken for the study focusing on the subsurface processes.

The atmospheric hinder for intraseasonal sea-air interaction over the Bay of Bengal during Indian summer monsoon in CMIP6

The surroundings of the Bay of Bengal(Bo B)suffer a lot from the extreme rainfall events during Indian summer monsoon(ISM).Previous studies have proved that the sea-air interaction is an important factor for the monsoonal precipitation.Using the 6th Coupled Modol Inter-comparison Project(CMIP6)models,this study examined the biases of surface heat flux,which is the main connection between atmosphere and ocean.Results show that although CMIP6 have a better simulation of intraseasonal sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies over Bo B than the previous ones,the“atmospheric blockage”still delays the response of latent heat flux to the oceanic forcing.Specifically,during the increment of positive latent heat flux in CMIP6,the negative contribution from wind effects covers most of the positive contribution from humidity effects,due to the underestimate of humidity effects.Further diagnostic analysis denote that the surface air humidity has a quarter of a phase ahead of warm SST in observation,but gets wet along with the warm SST accordingly in most CMIP6 models.As a result,the simulated transfer of intraseasonal moisture flux is hindered between ocean and atmosphere.Therefore,as a bridge between both sides,the atmospheric boundary layer is essential for a better sea-air coupled simulation,especially when the atmospheric and the oceanic variabilities involved in a climate model becomes increasingly sophisticated.The surface air humidity and boundary layer processes require more attention as well as better simulations.

The North Equatorial Current/Undercurrent volume transport and its 40-day variability from a mooring array along 130°E

Traditionally,the estimated volume transport of the North Equatorial Current/Undercurrent(NEC/NEUC)is based on geostrophic equations and/or model results;however,direct observational evidence has not been acquired.We focused on one-year mooring observation data collected along 130°E and calculated the NEC/NEUC volume transport and explore its variability.Results show that the mean NEC and NEUC volume transports calculated from the mean velocity structures in the upper 950 m are 39 Sv and 6 Sv,respectively.Analysis of daily mooring data indicated that the volume transport of the NEC is approximately 52(±14)Sv and the volume transport of the NEUC is approximately 18(±13)Sv.A significant 40-day variation existed for the volume transport of both the NEC and NEUC.Overall,the intraseasonal variability of the NEC is vertically coherent with that of the NEUC.Observations indicated that the NEUC has three cores centered at approximately 8.5°N(~500 m),12.5°N(~700 m),and 17.5°N(~900 m),of which the middle core(12.5°N)is the strongest.The 40-day variability of the NEC and NEUC is related to the variability of local wind stress curl anomalies among various Madden-Julian Oscillation phases.When local wind field generates a negative(positive)wind stress curl anomaly,a weaker NEC(NEUC)and stronger NEUC(NEC)would occur.

Amplification effect of intra-seasonal variability of soil moisture on heat extremes over Eurasia

Drying soil has been conducive to a high frequency of extreme high-temperature events over many regions worldwide in recent decades.However,changes in the intraseasonal variability of soil moisture can also influence the likelihood of extremely high temperatures.Although previous investigators have examined the association between extremely high temperatures and large-scale atmospheric circulation variability,the role of land-atmosphere coupling dominated by soil moisture variability in extremely high temperatures,particularly over the Eurasian continent,is not well understood.In this study,on the basis of the Land Surface,Snow,and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project,we found that land-atmosphere feedback amplified the variability of soil moisture in most regions of Eurasia during summer from 1980 to 2014.This amplification of soil moisture variability is closely correlated with more intensive intraseasonal variability of surface air temperature and more frequent occurrences of extreme high-temperature events,particularly in Europe,Siberia,Northeast Asia,and the Indochina Peninsula.This correlation implies that increasing the intraseasonal variability of soil moisture results in a high likelihood of heat extremes during summer in most parts of Eurasia except Asian desert areas.On the intraseasonal timescale,the land-atmosphere coupling increases the variability of surface sensible heat flux and net long-wave radiation heating the atmosphere by intensifying the soil moisture variability,thus amplifying the variability of surface air temperature and enhancing the extreme high-temperature days.This finding demonstrates the importance of changes in intraseasonal soil moisture variability for the increasing likelihood of heat extremes in summer.

Validation of ECMWF and NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis Data in Antarctica

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast （ECMWF） Re-Analysis （ERA-40） and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP-NCAR） ECMWF （ERA-40） and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data were compared with Antarctic station observations, including surface-layer and upper-layer atmospheric observations, on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. At the interannual timescale, atmospheric pressure at different height levels in the ERA-40 data are in better agreement with observed pressure than that in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. ERA-40 reanalysis also outperforms NCEP–NCAR reanalysis in atmospheric temperature, except in the surface layer where the biases are somewhat larger. The wind velocity fields in both datasets do not agree well with surface-and upper-layer atmospheric observations. At intraseasonal timescales, both datasets capture the observed intraseasonal variability in pressure and temperature during austral winter.

The identifi ed 30–50-day variation in the subthermocline current east of Mindanao

Based on nearly 4 year-long moored velocity measurements at 8°N/127°E and a high-resolution ocean model output,a signifi cant 30–50-day variation in the subthermocline current east of Mindanao was identifi ed for the fi rst time in addition to the 60–80-day variation reported in previous studies.The 30–50-day variation is an important component and it explains considerable variance same as that of the 60–80-day variation.The 30–50-day variation is vertically coherent in the subthermocline current.The standard deviations of the 30–50-day variation in zonal and meridional directions are of comparable,and is about 4.5–5 cm/s.Eddy-tracking analysis indicated that ocean eddies originating from the North Equatorial Current(10°N–11°N)contribute to the 30–50-day and the 60–80-day variations.The 30–50-day eddies propagate faster than the 60–80-day eddies.

The variability of surface radiation fluxes over landfast sea ice near Zhongshan station,east Antarctica during austral spring

Surface radiative fluxes over landfast sea ice off Zhongshan station have been measured in austral spring for five springs between 2010 and 2015.Downward and upward solar radiation vary diurnally with maximum amplitudes of 473 and 290 W m^(−2),respectively.The maximum and minimum long-wave radiation values of the mean diurnal cycle are 218 and 210 W m^(−2)for downward radiation,277 and 259 W m^(−2)for upward radiation and 125 and−52 W m^(−2)for net radiation.The albedo has a U-shaped mean diurnal cycle with a minimum of 0.64 at noon.Sea ice thickness is in the growth phase for most spring days,but can be disturbed by synoptic processes.The surface temperature largely determines the occurrence of ice melting.Surface downward and upward long-wave radiation show synoptic oscillations with a 5–8 day period and intraseasonal variability with a 12–45 day period.The amplitudes of the diurnal,synoptic and intraseasonal variability show some differences during the five austral springs considered here.The intraseasonal and synoptic variability of downward and upward long-wave radiation are associated with the variability of cloud cover and surface temperature induced by the atmospheric circulation.