Evaluation and Forecasting of Wind Energy Investment Risk along the Belt and Road Based on a Novel Hybrid Intelligent Model

The timely and effective investment risk assessment and forecasting are of great significance to ensure the investment safety and sustainable development of wind energy along the Belt and Road.In order to obtain the scientific and real-time forecasting result,this paper constructs a novel hybrid intelligent model based on improved cloud model combined with GRA-TOPSIS and MBA-WLSSVM.Firstly,the factors influencing investment risk of wind energy along the Belt and Road are identified fromthree dimensions:endogenous risk,exogenous risk and process risk.Through the fuzzy threshold method,the final input index system is selected.Secondly,the risk evaluation method based on improved cloud model andGRA-TOPSIS is proposed.Thirdly,a modern intelligent model based on MBA-WLSSVMis designed.In modified bat algorithm(MBA),tent chaotic map is utilized to improve the basic bat algorithm,while weighted least squares support vector machine(WLSSVM)adopts wavelet kernel function to replace the traditional radial basis function to complete the model improvement.Finally,an example is given to verify the scientificity and accuracy of themodel,which is helpful for investors tomake fast and effective investment risk forecasting of wind energy along the Belt and Road.The example analysis proves that the proposedmodel can provide reference and basis for investment corpus to formulate the investment strategy in wind energy along the Belt and Road.

Investment Risks of Agricultural Listed Companies from Visual Angle of Natural Disasters

The essential feature of agriculture is the interweave- ment of natural reproduction and economic reproduction.In recent years,the natural disasters have become more frequent and badly affect the production management and investment benefits.This problem has been an important risk in managing agricultural listed companies and cannot be ignored.It is of great importance to evaluate and prevent the risks of the natural disasters to enhance the competitive ability and increase the profits of those listed companies,thereby keeping the sustainable development of agri- cultural companies.

Investment risk evaluation of existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO

The investment risk management of the existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO cannot be separated from the scientific risk measurement and evaluation. The investment risk assessment is the basis of investment decision and project implementation. Based on the content analysis and balance of evaluation principle of investment risk evaluation on the existing building energy-saving renovation project, we set up three levels of existing building energy-saving renovation project investment risk evaluation index system, use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the quantitative process, get the scientific assessment of the investment risk of existing building energy-saving renovation project, and support the investment risk response strategy and control measures of existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO.

Investment risk analysis of China's wind power industry based on pre-assessment matrix

Wind energy is a clean and sustainable energy, and wind power does not rely on fossil fuels. So there is no fuel price risk, and it, of course, does not include the environmental costs, such as carbon emissions. Because of these unique advantages, wind power has gradually become an important part of the strategy of sustainable development in China. Now with the growing voices on global greenhouse gas emission reduction, and as a clean and efficient energy, wind power has huge potential in combating climate change, energy security pressures and the needs for energy. Wind power in China began to develop from the 1980s. In the first 20 years, the speed of development was slow; but since 2004, it has had an extremely rapid growth.This paper, in order to study the development mechanism of China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry, investigated and analyzed the status quo of wind power industry in China, and then found that （1） the development trend of wind power industry in China appears exponential growth; （2） China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s installed capacity of wind power is still smaller than that os some other countries; （3） new subsidy policies bring developing opportunities to wind power industry in China; （4） the sectors of wind power industry are in unbalanced growing; （5） the owners of proposed wind farms are too optimistic though the built wind farm had many problems. In addition, by using the methodology of Game Theory, this paper has also constructed the matrix of pre-assessing risks of China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry to further discuss the potential risk factors within China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry as risk factors of wind farm construction, risk factors of production of wind turbines, risk factors of parts and components manufacturing industry under risk indicators like R＆amp;amp;amp;amp;D, patents, the domestic policy, the international policy, the quality of products and the market regulation, in order to provide a scientific assessment and self-assessment tool for investors or implementers, and also to promote the further development of the wind power industry.

The Analysis and Assessment of the Creation Investment Risk in the High and New Technology, Enterprise

The creation risk investmentof the high and new technology enterprise isthe way to finance：and invest for the business period. After we putting the capital into the high and new. technology project.that is in the devetopment stage, the enterprise can, acquire high, increase, by the. support and assistance ＇of, the. capital and management. After the enterprise grew up, it can achieve high benefits by selling stock, attorning the enterprise, and dealing property rights, etc. Finally it secedes form the enterprise invested. The purpose of total analysis in the respective stage for the business investment cause including cause prosperities, object, risk, is to comprehensively understand the effect on the anticipation ratio of the benefit, investment distribution, the stock property proportion which is offered by the activity content, and the emphasis of the assessment in the respective stages of the creation risk investment cause.

Assessment of Investment Risk in Greek Short Sea Shipping： A Ro-Ro Passenger Ferry Case

The purpose of this paper is to introduce an innovative methodology in shipping investment evaluation based on simulation of a project cash flow. It concerns a complementary approach to current practices and its aim is to provide more information mainly to ship-owners that consider the feasibility of deploying Ro-Ro Passenger ferries. The paper examines a typical semi-conventional RoPax ferry operating in the Aegean Sea. It addresses important economic, operational and procedural issues concerning risk evaluation. The current status is that risk is a notion still strange to main stakeholders. The Greek practice in performing a feasibility study for a project draws on investor＇s experience and feeling aided by a preliminary economic study. The main thesis of this paper is that there are alternative techniques to evaluate investment risk and measure profitability of a project. A Monte Carlo simulation in collaboration with a typical Ro-Ro cash-flow model is implemented to reveal the extent of risk and provide a useful tool for the assessment of future investments in Greek Short Sea Shipping.

The Association Between Corporate Governance Mechanisms and Stock Investment Risk： Empirical Evidence From Thailand

This study examines the association between corporate governance mechanisms （i.e., internal corporate governance, ownership structure, and external corporate govemance） and stock investment risk （i.e., idiosyncratic risk, systematic risk, and total risk of non-financial listed firms in Thailand in 2007）. The multiple regression analysis is employed to test the hypotheses, and the results suggest that firms with higher market power have lower systematic risk. It implies that firms with higher market power can reduce the unavoidable risk when compared with firms that have lower market power. Firms with more media coverage will have higher systematic risk, which indicates that firms which publish more news will have higher unavoidable risk. This research may be the first to provide the evidence of the association between corporate govemance mechanisms and stock investment risk. Interestingly still, this study has utilized the data of Thailand, which is an emerging market economy with a capital market structure different from those of the developed market economies, and the results of this study are anticipated to be applicable to other similar studies in other emerging market economies.

Investment risk of rural family education: From the persepective of educational cost and income

With the implementation of the policy of popularization of education, rural families make the choice of interests and behavior decisions through the calculation of their own benefits and costs, and gradually become the main body of rural education investment decisions. The relationship between educational cost and income plays a major role in the rural family education investment. Based on the current situation of rural education in our country, this paper focuses on the risk of rural education investment and rural education costs and benefits, and then puts forward scientific, operational measures and suggestions.

Study on Positioning System of the Risk Early Warning for Enterprise Overseas Investment

From the perspective of internal and external environment analysis,we construct the risk identification index system for overseas investment enterprises.Combined with the theory of comprehensive evaluation and risk early warning,the risk location system of overseas investment is established.The risk intelligence decision model is constructed by rough set theory,and the risk identification,risk location and risk decision of overseas investment are studied,and are empirically analyzed with cases in overseas investment.

Forecasting the Advertising investment Risk of Sporting Goods Based on Optimized Support Vector Machine

Forecasting The Advertising investment risk of Sporting goods is very important which can provide the decision support for top manager. In this paper, we presented an optimized support vector machine （OSVM） to predict Advertising investment risk of Sporting goods. Experimental results show that the prediction accuracy improved by the proposed method.

Positive Study on the Risks of Investment

In this paper, an empirical research on the system risks of the Shenzhen Stock Market using capital asset pricing model is conducted. The typical composition stocks on Shenzhen Stock Market in 1998 are taken as samples. Some quantitative analysis results are got, which can measure the risk of stock market.

Overcoming Investment Risks Chinese investors need to thoroughly understand local conditions before investing in Africa

With abundant labor resources and the increase in policy sup port for economie development and loreign investment, Africa is becoming a new sought-after destination for investment by multinational companics.

Asymptotics of discounted aggregate claims for renewal risk model with risky investment

Under the assumption that the claim size is subexponentially distributed and the insurance surplus is totally invested in risky asset, a simple asymptotic relation of tail probability of discounted aggregate claims for renewal risk model within finite horizon is obtained. The result extends the corresponding conclusions of related references.

基于InVEST模型的海南岛氮磷营养物负荷的风险评估

对于面源污染的防治,首要任务是量化氮磷营养物的负荷。应用InVEST模型中的水质净化模块,模拟海南岛氮磷营养物的输出负荷,并根据富营养化含量指标表划分氮磷负荷的风险区域。结果表明:海南岛水质状况总体良好,大部分区域的水质达到或优于国家地表水Ⅲ类标准,但是部分区域磷的输出负荷偏高,处于风险水区。以氮为限值的贫营养化水区、贫-中营养化水区、中营养化水区和中-富营养化水区分别占总面积的21.42%、49.98%、11.58%、17.02%。以磷为限值的贫-中营养化水区、中营养化水区、中-富营养化水区和风险水区分别占1.48%、35.40%、47.49%、15.63%。

Investment Environment Assessment and Strategic Policy for Subjects of Federation in Russia

Russia is the largest neighboring country of China. Between the two countries, the resources and industry are complemented, the political mutual trust is at a high level, and trade cooperation has a broad prospect. Choosing the best regions and the best industries to strengthen investment in Russia has a major strategic significance in promoting ‘the Belt and Road Initiative’ and China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor Construction. However, the related researches are extremely limited. The investment environment is unclear, and the investment risk is unknown, which seriously restrict the investment in Russia and the trade cooperation with Russia. Our research team carried out scientific expedition, government visits and scientific research cooperation in Russia for several years, and obtained a great number of first-hand valuable data. According to the analysis on the data and Russian regional policies, this study constructed an investment environment evaluation model(ESI-PRA model), scientific assessed the investment environment for 83 subjects of federation in Russia, in terms of economic, social, infrastructure, policy, resource and accessibility, classified 4 types of investment regions, chose 3 investment priority regions, revealed the investment priority industries, demonstrated the main investment risks, and proposed the strategic policies. The research results provide direct scientific and technological support for strategic decisions, such as investment in Russia, bilateral economic and trade cooperation, and overseas layout of Chinese-funded enterprises. Moreover, it has an important practical and strategic significance for improving overseas geo-strategic interests of China and ensuring the construction of China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor.

基于InVEST和生态风险评估模型耦合的湿地生态风险评价——以吉林省为例

湿地是生态系统的重要组成部分,在保护生物多样性和区域经济发展等方面发挥着不可替代的作用。基于生态系统外部危险性和内部脆弱性,选取了21个关键评价指标,耦合InVEST模型产水量模块和生态风险评估模型,构建生态系统评价体系,估算吉林省湿地生态风险指数,实现吉林省湿地生态风险空间分布特征模拟,为湿地生态保护与建设提供建议。结果表明:吉林省湿地生态风险指数从东至西呈现先升后降的趋势,各市的风险指数排序为:四平市>辽源市>长春市>吉林市>松原市>通化市>延边朝鲜自治州>白山市>白城市,高值区主要集中在西南地区;吉林省应采取更具有针对性的政策和措施,加强对较高风险地区的保护,为维护生态平衡和促进区域社会经济发展提供有力保障。

基于InVEST模型的北京市延庆区自然保护地生境质量评估

采用InVEST模型,选取生境质量和生境退化风险两个指标,分析北京市延庆区生境质量空间分布特征;通过莫兰指数与ArcGIS软件结合,揭示两个生境指标的冷热点覆盖区;探究生境质量、生境退化风险与不同类型自然保护地间的关系。研究结果表明:延庆区生境质量东北部、西北部和东南部较高,西南部部分区域生境质量较低,生态退化风险从东北向西南呈升高趋势,各类自然保护地生境质量指数均高于0.9,且均高于全区均值(0.8342);自然保护地内生境热点较少,生境退化风险热点主要集中在西南部城区,东北和东南部也有零星分布;不同类型保护地之间生境退化风险存在一定差异,其中湿地公园退化风险高于其他类型,需要强化对湿地公园的规划和管理,减少人为活动的干扰。

Risk Threats in a Creative Funding Scheme for Infrastructure Project in Indonesia： Cileunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan Toll Road Project Case

A creative solution to financial gap in Indonesian infrastructure development is the Public Private Partnership （PPP） scheme. One of the constraints in PPP implementation in toll road infrastructure is the lack of interest from the private sector, which are caused by the uncertainties defined as risks surrounding the project. This urges the importance of risk analysis on project investment to describe the measurement of risk allocated to the private sector. This paper aims at measuring the risks impacts on the project viability using Cileunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan （Cisumdawu） Toll Road section as the case and finding some creative way out. By employing Monte Carlo risk analysis technique we are able to measure the risk impact perceived by the private sector through probability distribution of the project NPV and IRR. Based on the result of Monte Carlo analysis on the Cisumdawu toll road, the overall risk impact perceived by the private sector is too much to bear. The risks considered as high-impact are risks on land acquisition, risks on construction, risks on toll revenue, risks on interest rates and disaster risks on post construction phase. The result shows the importance of decreasing the risk level on the mentioned risk that can be done through the increased participation of local government in managing the toll road projects. A creative solution again is needed to strike balance between the interest of private sector and that of public sector to deal with risks.

数字金融的绿色效应:数字普惠金融与企业绿色技术创新

在新发展理念下,基于绿色导向与创新导向系统实现企业的绿色技术创新成为企业绿色转型与创新驱动发展的重要突破口。本文选取中国沪深A股上市公司数据,考察了数字普惠金融对企业绿色技术创新的具体影响效应及其机制。研究结果表明:数字普惠金融及其覆盖广度、使用深度和数字化程度均显著促进企业绿色技术创新,数字普惠金融主要通过提高企业创新投入、降低企业风险水平以及增强企业治理水平的三重机制促进企业绿色技术创新,数字普惠金融对企业绿色技术创新的促进效应在融资约束程度高与市场化程度低地区的企业中更为明显。因此,政府要深化金融供给侧结构性改革,推动数字普惠金融发展;企业要高度重视数字普惠金融的赋能效应,完善数字普惠金融助力企业绿色技术创新的协同机制,通过实施绿色技术创新战略实现企业绿色低碳转型升级。