A sensitivity analysis of factors affecting in geologic CO_(2) storage in the Ordos Basin and its contribution to carbon neutrality

To accelerate the achievement of China’s carbon neutrality goal and to study the factors affecting the geologic CO_(2)storage in the Ordos Basin,China’s National Key R&D Programs propose to select the Chang 6 oil reservoir of the Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin as the target reservoir to conduct the geologic carbon capture and storage(CCS)of 100000 t per year.By applying the basic theories of disciplines such as seepage mechanics,multiphase fluid mechanics,and computational fluid mechanics and quantifying the amounts of CO_(2)captured in gas and dissolved forms,this study investigated the effects of seven factors that influence the CO_(2)storage capacity of reservoirs,namely reservoir porosity,horizontal permeability,temperature,formation stress,the ratio of vertical to horizontal permeability,capillary pressure,and residual gas saturation.The results show that the sensitivity of the factors affecting the gas capture capacity of CO_(2)decreases in the order of formation stress,temperature,residual gas saturation,horizontal permeability,and porosity.Meanwhile,the sensitivity of the factors affecting the dissolution capture capacity of CO_(2)decreases in the order of formation stress,residual gas saturation,temperature,horizontal permeability,and porosity.The sensitivity of the influencing factors can serve as the basis for carrying out a reasonable assessment of sites for future CO_(2)storage areas and for optimizing the design of existing CO_(2)storage areas.The sensitivity analysis of the influencing factors will provide basic data and technical support for implementing geologic CO_(2)storage and will assist in improving geologic CO_(2)storage technologies to achieve China’s carbon neutralization goal.

Multi-factor sensitivity analysis of shallow unsaturated clay slope stability

An unsaturated clay slope, with various sloping angles and a thickness of 14 m, consists of backfill, slope soil and residual soil. Slide interfaces were determined by geophysical approaches and the original slope was reconstructed. Sub-slope masses were classified based on the varieties of sloping angle. A force recursive principle was proposed to calculate the stability coefficient of the sub-slope masses. The influencing factors such as sloping angle, water content, hydrostatic pressure, seismic force as well as train load were analyzed. The range and correlation of the above-mentioned factors were discussed and coupled wave equations were established to reflect the relationships between unit weight, cohesion, internal frictional angle, and water content, as well as between internal frictional angle and cohesion. The sensitivity analysis of slope stability was carried out and susceptive factors were determined when the factors were taken as independent and dependent variables respectively. The results show that sloping angle, water content and earthquake are the principal susceptive factors influencing slope stability. The impact of hydrostatic pressure on slope stability is similar to the seismic force in quantity. Train load plays a small role in slope stability and its influencing only reaches the roadbed and its neighboring slope segment. If the factors are taken as independent variables, the influencing extent of water content and cohesion on slope stability can be weakened and train load can be magnified.

Decomposition Method of Complex Optimization Model Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

The current research of the decomposition methods of complex optimization model is mostly based on the principle of disciplines, problems or components. However, numerous coupling variables will appear among the sub-models decomposed, thereby make the efficiency of decomposed optimization low and the effect poor. Though some collaborative optimization methods are proposed to process the coupling variables, there lacks the original strategy planning to reduce the coupling degree among the decomposed sub-models when we start decomposing a complex optimization model. Therefore, this paper proposes a decomposition method based on the global sensitivity information. In this method, the complex optimization model is decomposed based on the principle of minimizing the sensitivity sum between the design functions and design variables among different sub-models. The design functions and design variables, which are sensitive to each other, will be assigned to the same sub-models as much as possible to reduce the impacts to other sub-models caused by the changing of coupling variables in one sub-model. Two different collaborative optimization models of a gear reducer are built up separately in the multidisciplinary design optimization software iSIGHT, the optimized results turned out that the decomposition method proposed in this paper has less analysis times and increases the computational efficiency by 29.6%. This new decomposition method is also successfully applied in the complex optimization problem of hydraulic excavator working devices, which shows the proposed research can reduce the mutual coupling degree between sub-models. This research proposes a decomposition method based on the global sensitivity information, which makes the linkages least among sub-models after decomposition, and provides reference for decomposing complex optimization models and has practical engineering significance.

Runoff characteristics and its sensitivity to climate factors in the Weihe River Basin from 2006 to 2018

Exploring the current runoff characteristics after the large-scale implementation of the Grain for Green(GFG)project and investigating its sensitivities to potential drivers are crucial for water resource prediction and management.Based on the measured runoff data of 62 hydrological stations in the Weihe River Basin(WRB)from 2006 to 2018,we analyzed the temporal and spatial runoff characteristics in this study.Correlation analysis was used to investigate the relationships between different runoff indicators and climate-related factors.Additionally,an improved Budyko framework was applied to assess the sensitivities of annual runoff to precipitation,potential evaporation,and other factors.The results showed that the daily runoff flow duration curves(FDCs)of all selected hydrological stations fall in three narrow ranges,with the corresponding mean annual runoff spanning approximately 1.50 orders of magnitude,indicating that the runoff of different hydrological stations in the WRB varied greatly.The trend analysis of runoff under different exceedance frequencies showed that the runoff from the south bank of the Weihe River was more affluent and stable than that from the north bank.The runoff was unevenly distributed throughout the year,mainly in the flood season,accounting for more than 50.00%of the annual runoff.However,the trend of annual runoff change was not obvious in most areas.Correlation analysis showed that rare-frequency runoff events were more susceptible to climate factors.In this study,daily runoff under 10%-20%exceeding frequencies,consecutive maximum daily runoff,and low-runoff variability rate had strong correlations with precipitation,aridity index,and average runoff depth on rainy days.In comparison,daily runoff under 50%-99%exceeding frequencies,consecutive minimum daily runoff,and high-runoff variability rate had weak correlations with all selected impact factors.The sensitivity analysis results suggested that the sensitivity of annual runoff to precipitation was always higher than that to potential evaporation.The runoff about 87.10%of the selected hydrological stations were most sensitive to precipitation changes,and 12.90%were most sensitive to other factors.The spatial pattern of the sensitivity analysis indicated that in relatively humid southern areas,runoff was more sensitive to potential evaporation and other factors,and less sensitive to precipitation.

Reliability Sensitivity Analysis for Location Scale Family

Many products always operate under various complex environment conditions. To describe the dynamic influence of environment factors on their reliability, a method of reliability sensitivity analysis is proposed. In this method, the location parameter is assumed as a function of relevant environment variables while the scale parameter is assumed as an unknown positive constant. Then, the location parameter function is constructed by using the method of radial basis function. Using the varied environment test data, the log-likelihood function is transformed to a generalized linear expression by describing the indicator as Poisson variable. With the generalized linear model, the maximum likelihood estimations of the model coefficients are obtained. With the reliability model, the reliability sensitivity is obtained. An instance analysis shows that the method is feasible to analyze the dynamic variety characters of reliability along with environment factors and is straightforward for engineering application.

Characteristics and influencing factors of investment facilitation level in China's overseas free economic zones

High-level investment facilitation is crucial for China's overseas free economic zones(COFEZs)to attract and retain investment,mitigate business interruption risks,and foster a virtuous cycle.While research on investment facilitation in COFEZs has mainly focused on summarizing and examining the investment facilitation measures adopted by typical national-level examples of COFEZs,relatively little attention has been paid to investigating the overall level and general problems of investment facilitation across COFEZs.This study expands the scope of case investigations by taking 60 COFEZs as samples.It constructs a comprehensive evaluation indicator system which includes four dimensions:industrial infrastructure,social infrastructure,business support services,and seamless administrative supervision.By employing content analysis and regression analysis,this study identifies the characteristics and influencing factors of investment facilitation level in COFEZs.The results show that the overall level of investment facilitation in COFEZs is currently low.Specifically,COFEZs exhibit higher levels of investment facilitation in processing and manufacturing types and in Europe,while those in trade and logistics types and in Africa are relatively poor.Industrial infrastructure and business support services contribute more significantly to the overall scores of investment facilitation in COFEZs compared to social infrastructure and seamless administrative supervision.The investment facilitation level in COFEZs is essentially the result of a series of behaviors by developers and host governments,and it is affected by a combination of developers'perceptions of investment facilitation and the social environment in which developers and host governments promote investment facilitation.This study offers a new perspective on understanding COFEZs and contributes to the sustainable development of COFEZs.

Modeling and simulation of twin-tube hydraulic shock absorber thermodynamic characteristics and sensitivity analysis of its influencing factors

In order to find out the sensitivity of the thermophysical and structural parameters to the thermodynamic characteristics of twin-tube hydraulic shock absorbers,based on the bench test,a method for calculating the time-varying rate of the external work on the shock absorber oil is proposed.And then,a thermodynamic model of the twin-tube hydraulic shock absorber is established by using the basic thermodynamic principles.By analyzing the influence of each parameter on the thermodynamic characteristics of the shock absorber,it can be seen that,the radius of the working cylinder outer wall has the greatest influence on the temperature rise of the shock absorber,followed by the thermal conductivity of the oil,the height of the oil,the heat transfer length of the cylinder barrel,the radius of the oil storage cylinder outer wall,the emissivity of the oil storage cylinder outer wall,the height of the nitrogen,the thermal conductivity of the nitrogen,the specific heat capacity of the oil,the density of the oil,the thermal conductivity of the cylinder,and the mass of the working oil.The kinematic viscosity of the oil has the least influence on the temperature rise of the shock absorber.The research can provide an effective theoretical guidance and reference for the design of the twin-tube hydraulic shock absorber.

Sensitivity Analysis of Pollutants and Pattern Factor in a Gas Turbine Model Combustor due to Changes in Stabilizing Jets Characteristics

In the present paper,a sensitivity analysis of pollutants and pattern factor in a model combustor due to changes in the geometrical characteristics of stabilizing jets has been carried out.The exhaust pollutants including NO_(x),CO and soot have been chosen due to their harmful effect on the environment.The pattern factor has been also considered owing to its impact on turbine blades.The geometrical characteristics comprise diameter,angle and position of stabilizing jets.Eulerian-Lagrangian approach has been employed to model liquid fuel injection and distribution,breakup and evaporation of droplets.For the analysis of reactive-spray flow characteristics,RANS approach,realizable k-εturbulence model,discrete ordinates radiative heat transfer model and steady flamelet combustion model together with the chemical reaction mechanism of diesel fuel(C_(10)H_(22))have been applied.NO_(x) modeling has been performed via post-processing.Sensitivity analysis is such that by making variations in the problem inputs(diameter,angle and position of jets)in an organized manner,the effects on the outputs(NO_(x),CO,soot and pattern factor)are predicted.The number and order of simulations are predicted by design of experiments and full factorial model.Results have been analyzed using analysis of variance.It has been observed that if interactions among the characteristics of jets are considered,it is possible to analyze the exhaust pollutants more accurately.In fact,by using the interactions,it is likely to find a point where all output parameters are improved.Results show that by considering interactions of stabilizing jet characteristics,the maximum values of NO_(x),CO,soot and pattern factor change from 13.927 ppm,11.198%mole fraction,2.877 ppm and 0.043 to 26.233 ppm,14.693%mole fraction,142.357 ppm and 0.060,respectively.Furthermore,the minimum values change from 5.819 ppm,7.568%mole fraction,0.013 ppm and 0.029 to 6.098 ppm,5.987%mole fraction,0.002 ppm and 0.027,respectively.

Mass transfer investigation and operational sensitivity analysis of aminebased industrial CO_2 capture plant

In this article, the industrial process of CO_2 capture using monoethanolamine as an aqueous solvent was probed carefully from the mass transfer viewpoint. The simulation of this process was done using Rate-Base model, based on two-film theory. The results were validated against real plant data. Compared to the operational unit, the error of calculating absorption percentage and CO_2 loading was estimated around 2%. The liquid temperature profiles calculated by the model agree well with the real temperature along the absorption tower, emphasizing the accuracy of this model. Operational sensitivity analysis of absorption tower was also done with the aim of determining sensitive parameters for the optimized design of absorption tower and optimized operational conditions. Hence,the sensitivity analysis was done for the flow rate of gas, the flow rate of solvent, flue gas temperature, inlet solvent temperature, CO_2 concentration in the flue gas, loading of inlet solvent, and MEA concentration in the solvent. CO_2 absorption percentage, the profile of loading, liquid temperature profile and finally profile of CO_2 mole fraction in gas phase along the absorption tower were studied. To elaborate mass transfer phenomena, enhancement factor, interfacial area, molar flux and liquid hold up were probed. The results show that regarding the CO_2 absorption, the most important parameter was the gas flow rate. Comparing liquid temperature profiles showed that the most important parameter affecting the temperature of the rich solvent was MEA concentration.

SENSITIVITY FACTORS FOR TYPHOON GENESIS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING JULY-SEPTEMBER

The paper compares the correlations between individual factors of the cyclogenesis and the number of TCs formed in the western North Pacific in July to September(NTWNP). It also compares the characteristics of zonal anomaly distribution of the factors in the primary TC source areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Results show that the vorticity factor has the closest correlation with NTWNP. In TC genesis conditions, this feature is relatively rich but not enough, which determines that it is the sensitivity factor of NTWNP's annual variation. The paper also analyzes the source of annual variation of the vorticity factor in the key area of the western North Pacific as well as its advantage in showing NTWNP. Results show that the annual variation of the vorticity factor mentioned above is related to the annual variation of Southern Oscillation, Antarctica Oscillation and the geopotential height field of East Australia, which reflects the effect of two large-scale systems in the Southern Hemisphere and ENSO(El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation) on NTWNP. Since the area where the vorticity factor is significantly correlated with NTWNP is consistent with the area of dense TC genesis sources, the vorticity factor has an obvious advantage in showing annual variation of TCs. Those features are very significant for research on the influencing mechanism of NTWNP and simulation of climate models.

Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters in Water Quality Models and Water Environment Management

The impacts of changes of various parameters and stochastic factors on water quality models were studied. The impact of deviation of the degradation coefficient on the model results was investigated. The degradation coefficient was decomposed into the exact part and the deviation part, and the relationship between the errors of the water quality model results and the deviation of the degradation coefficient was derived. The impact of changes in the initial concentration on the model results was discussed. A linear relationship between the initial concentration changes and errors in the model results was obtained, and relevant recommendations to the water quality management were made based on the results. The impacts of stochastic factors in the water environment on the water quality model were analyzed. A variety of random factors which may affect the water quality conditions were attributed to one stochastic factor and it was further assumed to be the white noise. The solutions to the water quality model including the stochastic process were obtained by solving the stochastic differential equation. Simulation results showed that the decay trend of the concentration of the solute would not be changed, and that the results would fluctuate around the expectation centered at each corresponding displacement

Changes in Climate Factors and Their Impacts on Wind Erosion Climatic Erosivity in Farming-pastoral Zone of Northern China

Climate change can affect wind erosion power and hence induce changes in wind erosion rates.In this study,the wind erosion climate factor(C-factor),proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,was used to assess the impact of changes in climate on wind erosion climatic erosivity.The Mann-Kendall test was employed to detect trends in the C-factor during the period of 1961–2017 in the farming-pastoral zone of northern China.Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the sensitivity of the C-factor to changes in key climate factors.Furthermore,a comparison of the contributions of different climate factors was carried out to understand their impact on changes in the C-factor.The results indicated that most of the surveyed region exhibited decreasing trends in wind speed at a confidence level of 90%,while maximum and minimum temperatures showed increasing trends throughout the study area.As a consequence of decreasing wind speed,the annual C-factor exhibited significant decreasing trends,with a mean slope of–0.58/yr.Seasonal analysis revealed that in most regions,the changes in the C-factor had significant decreasing trends in spring,winter,and autumn,while in more than two-thirds of the study area,no significant change trends in the C-factor were detected in summer at a confidence level of 90%.Sensitivity analysis showed that the C-factor was most sensitive to wind speed,and that the sensitivity coefficients from July to September were much higher than those in other months.Contribution analysis revealed that,for most stations,wind speed(with greater values of sensitivity coefficients)was the dominant factor in the change of C-factor,while for some stations,the minimum temperature made the most contribution to the C-factor’s change due to its dramatic changes during the study period.Although the minimum temperature sensitivity coefficient was the lowest of all the sensitivity coefficients,it is urgent to evaluate the expected impact of minimum temperature due to its possible changes in the future.

Application of Portfolio Model in the Real Investment Transactions

This paper studies discrete investment portfolio model that the objective function is utility function. According to a hybrid branch-and-bound method based on Lagrangian relaxation and continuous relaxation, the paper analyzes the question using the real statistical data. The results indicate that discrete investment portfolio model really has its guidance in the actual investment.

The Impact of State Policies on Investment Project Management in Polish Industrial Construction Sector

In this paper,we discuss the influence of economic,environmental and legal policies of the state on the management of investment projects in the area of industrial construction in Poland.Our empirical study relies on conducting a questionnaire survey.A total of 158 Polish companies dealing with industrial construction took part in the survey.Then,the collected questionnaires were subjected to a thorough analysis and interpretation,with the use of a method called the exploratory factor analysis(EFA).Our research reveals the key factors influencing successful investment project management in the Polish industrial construction sector.These factors have been identified as the“availability of technology in a stable political system”,“stability of the economic and tax systems”,“stable social system policy,stability and transparency of the legal system”and a“well-targeted environmental policy”.A key conclusion that can be drawn from our study is that an efficient management of investment projects in the industrial construction industry is significantly influenced by properly shaped and stable economic,environmental,and legal policies of the state.

Factors affecting soil organic carbon in a Phyllostachys edulis forest

Phyllostachys edulis plays an important role in maintaining carbon cycling.We examined the effects of soil properties on organic carbon content in a P.edulis forest on Dagang Mountain,Jiangxi Province,China.Based on correlation and stepwise multiple regression analyses,the effects of seven soil factors on organic carbon and their sensitivities to change were studied using path and sensitivity analyses.The results revealed differences in the interconnections and intensities of soil factors on organic carbon.Soil porosity,field capacity,and ammonium nitrogen levels were the main factors affecting organic carbon in the ecosystem.Soil porosity had a strong direct effect on organic carbon content and a strong indirect effect through field capacity.Field capacity and ammonium nitrogen levels mainly affected organic carbon directly.Field capacity,soil porosity,and ammonium nitrogen content,as well as bulk density,b-glucosidase activity,and invertase activity,were sensitive factors.Polyphenol oxidase activity was insensitive.Our study provides a theoretical basis for understanding the effects of soil factors on organic carbon,which can be utilised to improve P.edulis forest management strategies and promote carbon sequestration capacities.

基于Factored Frontier算法的动态贝叶斯网络灵敏性分析方法

贝叶斯网络的灵敏性分析是研究模型局部参数或证据微小变化对于目标结点所产生的影响,以发现复杂系统的重要参数和结构.然而对于动态贝叶斯网络,当前还没有一种有效的灵敏性分析算法.针对隐马尔科夫模型(HMM)灵敏性分方法不能用于分析动态贝叶斯网络灵敏性和灵敏性分析计算复杂性高的问题,提出一种可有效处理动态贝叶斯网络灵敏性分析算法(SA_FF).SA_FF算法利用FF近似推理算法(Factored Frontier)思想求解动态贝叶斯网络的灵敏性函数,通过对马尔可夫毯所构成边界(Frontier)的动态推理建立参数与目标结点条件概率分布之间的函数关系;SA_FF算法在灵敏性函数推理计算过程中,通过对局部性边界的边缘化进行信息传播,不需要对模型的联合概率分布进行更新,显著提高了计算的效率,且可用于多参数灵敏性分析,但会引入一定的误差;进而,通过误差分析证明所引入的误差是有界的.最后,通过实例计算的比较和分析显示SA_FF算法的有效性.

Risk Factors of Commercial Banks in Malaysia

All kinds of risks exist in the banking industry. In order to cover these exposures, banks must manage these risk factors for better survival in any state of uncertainty. The objective is to examine the relevant risk factors that will affect the sensitivity of commercial banks in Malaysia. These factors are liquidity and interest rate risk, credit risk, market risk, operating and country risk, and exchange rate risk. A survey is conducted to solicit the appropriate factors that will influence the sensitivity of banks. Factor analysis is then used to identify the factors and a regression model is used to establish the associations. The results obtained through this research would be beneficial in constructing an effective solution or strategy to enable banks to minimize risk and possible failure in times of adversity.

A factor score clustering approach to analyze the biopharmaceutical sector in the Chinese market during COVID-19

The biopharmaceutical sector is of considerable interest during the COVID-19 pandemic.This study aims to investigate the biopharmaceutical sector using the Shenwan Industry Classification and provides insights into investment strategies.We combine factor and cluster analyses to reduce data dimensions and detect their latent similarities.Specifically,the biopharmaceutical sector is divided into six categories based on second-level industry classification.It is observed that medical devices,medical services,biological products,and chemical pharmaceuticals maintained their upward tendency,while Chinese medicine and pharmaceutical commerce declined slightly.We also develop optimal investment strategies using various metrics for different investor types.

Joint frequency,2-D DOA,and polarization estimation using parallel factor analysis

This paper proposes a new algorithm for joint frequency, two-dimensional （2-D） directions-of-arrival （DOA）, and polarization estimation using parallel factor （PARAFAC） analysis model and cumulant. The proposed algorithm designs a new array configuration, and extends the PARAFAC analysis model from the common data-domain and subspace-domain to the cumulant one, and forms three-way arrays by using the three cumulant matrices obtained from the properly chosen dipole outputs, and analyzes the uniqueness of low-rank decomposition of the three-way arrays, and then jointly estimates the source parameters via the low-rank decomposition of the constructed PARAFAC model. In comparison with the conventional methods, the proposed method alleviates the aperture loss, and avoids pairing parameter. Finally, the simulation results are presented to validate the performance of the proposed method.

Assessment of desertification sensitivity using an improved MEDALUS model in Northern China

Assessment of land sensitivity to desertification is an important step to support desertification monitoring and control.Based on the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use(MEDALUS)model,we defined four quality indicators(soil,climate,vegetation and management)to evaluate the sensitivity of land in northern China to desertification.We improved MEDALUS via excluding cities from the areas at risk of desertification by means of defining a threshold value for population density.The framework,validated in northern China,further optimizes the model to link priority areas and land restoration programmed to support desertification control.We found that the four indicators influenced and restricted each other,which jointly affected the distribution of desertification sensitivity in northern China.The spatial distribution of sensitivity in northern China showed large regional differences,with clear boundaries and concentrated distributions of regions with high and low sensitivity;the overall sensitivity decreased,with some areas rated as having moderate,severe,and extremely severe sensitivity changing to slight sensitivity;and the influence weight was much higher for the management quality index than for the climate,vegetation,and soil indexes.This suggests that management was the main factor that affected desertification sensitivity in northern China,and that climate factors exacerbated sensitivity,but the factors that are driving the spatial heterogeneity of the influencing factors need further study。