Upper Bounds for Ruin Probability with Stochastic Investment Return

Risk models with stochastic investment return are widely held in practice, as well as in more challenging research fields. Risk theory is mainly concerned with ruin probability, and a tight bound for ruin probability is the best for practical use. This paper presents a discrete time risk model with stochastic in- vestment return. Conditional expectation properties and martingale inequalities are used to obtain both ex- ponential and non-exponential upper bounds for the ruin probability.

Return on Investment after Implementation of a Centralized Automated Storage System in a Hospital Pharmacy

An ADS （automated dispensing system） was implemented in our hospital pharmacy in 2008 to optimize and secure the medication process. The main objective of this study was to compare the projected and the real ROI （return on investment）, after seven years of use. ROI was calculated annually （from 2008 to 2015）, by deducting the cost of investment （ADS buying and implementation, maintenance, repairs and ADS upgrade） from the cost saving （drugs stock reduction and decrease of pharmacy staff dedicated to global dispensing）. In 2015, total costs saving （＋$1,141,987） were divided between decreasing drug stock value and reduction of pharmacy staff. Total costs of investment （-$978,656） were acquisition, maintenance, repairs and an unplanned upgrade costs. Finally, the real ROI was ＋$163,331 after seven years of use. In 2008, projected ROI was ＋$410,786. The real payback period has been increased by approximately two years （six years of use, instead of four years as expected）. Despite their cost, ADSs are a worthwhile investment, leading to a ROI within a few years. These economic considerations should be put into perspective with optimization of drugs stock management, greater efficiency of the global dispensing process, securitization of medication process and redeployment of pharmacy staff.

Determination of the Financing Scale,Time Limit and Returns from the Investment in BOT Projects

The key aspect to the successful implementation of BOT concept is the raising of finance by project sponsor,so financial engineering techniques and capital structuring skills are required to find the proper mix of debt and equity.The capital structure and present a model to determine the equity level from the aspects of financing scale,construction time and return on investment are analyzed.The resulting model can help the sponsor to avoid the capital risk,and offer the government a criterion to evaluate management ability of the sponsor.To show the application and availability of this model,a case study is conducted.Thus,this paper is concern with the determination of financing scale,construction time,and return on investment which would assist the sponsor to ensure that the equity level for optimal capital structure is available prior to the implementation stage in BOT project operation.

A Method for the Solution of Educational Investment

In order to improve the performance of higher education in the United States, the Goodgrant Foundation intends to donate a total of $100,000,000 (US 100 million) to an appropriate group of schools per year, for five years, starting in July 2016. For this, our team puts forward upon an optimal investment strategy, which includes the schools to invest, the investment amount of each school, and the return due to investment, to solve this problem. Our main idea is as follows. First of all, we choose suitable investment school universities in the United States. Secondly, we use Analytic Hierarchy Process to get the rate of return on investment and venture capital. Thirdly, we establish a venture capital return model. Finally, solving the mathematical model ensures the investment amount of each school and the return due to investment. To implement this strategy, first of all, we obtain the candidate school based on students score card. Then, according to the factor analysis, we analyze the factors which mainly affect the choice of school. Secondly, we employ Analytic Hierarchy Process to get the rate of return on investment and capital risk. In the end, we establish a risk return model to get investment amount for each school, amount of risk and return. In order to ensure the minimum risk and the maximum return, we set up a multi objective programming model and solve it by using the constraint method. We get the result that includes the maximum net profit of the investment and risk loss rate. According to statistical analysis, we can get the overall return of net income within five years. Finally, we choose 320 candidate schools and get the investment amount of each school according to the principle of as many schools as possible. We have proved that the foundation will receive a return of more than 295.363 million in the next 5 years. After-verification, our strategy can be directly applied to the investment field and get good results.

A Probe into the Oriented Management Mode of"Human Resource Return"

At the present stage,each big enterprise bases itself on the human resource inside the enterprise,increases the human capital investment one after another,pays attention to the human capital investment and the talented person education and training.This paper analyzes how the return on human capital investment is realized in the enterprise and how the enterprise realizes the highest return on human capital investment.

The “Iterated Weakest Link” Model of Adaptive Security Investment

We devise a model for security investment that reflects dynamic interaction between a defender, who faces uncertainty, and an attacker, who repeatedly targets the weakest link. Using the model, we derive and compare optimal security investment over multiple periods, exploring the delicate balance between proactive and reactive security investment. We show how the best strategy depends on the defender’s knowledge about prospective attacks and the recoverability of costs when upgrading defenses reactively. Our model explains why security under-investment is sometimes rational even when effective defenses are available and can be deployed independently of other parties’ choices. Finally, we connect the model to real-world security problems by examining two case studies where empirical data are available: computers compromised for use in online crime and payment card security.

某三级甲等公立医院数字减影设备的成本效益分析

目的对公立医院数字减影血管造影(digital subtraction angiography,DSA)设备进行成本效益分析,结合社会效益评价,为设备采购和管理提供科学依据。方法采用投资回收期法、投资收益率法、量本利分析法和净现值法对数字减影设备进行成本效益分析,运用模糊数学法建模和指标评分法进行社会效益评价。结果公立医院数字减影设备包括DSA数字血管造影机、DSA全数字化平板探测器血管造影机、血管造影X线系统,其中:血管造影X线系统投资收益率最高为19.07%,投资回收期仅2.80年,运行效益评价为优秀;DSA全数字化平板探测器血管造影机A的经济指标最低,原因在于其业务量仅达保本工作量的83.91%,但其社会效益评分最高(C值为7.3)。结论公立医院在采购和管理数字减影等大型设备时需进行充分的成本效益分析论证,兼顾公立医院的公益性和科研属性,实行经济效益和社会效益双评价。

Dimensional Analysis and Similarity Method Driving Self-similar Solutions of the First and Second Kind Inducing Energy

Nearly all scientists,at conjunction with simplifying a differential equation,have probably used dimensional analysis.Dimensional analysis(also called the Factor-Label Method or the Unit Factor Method)is an approach to the problem that uses the fact that one can multiply any number or expression without changing its value.This is a useful technique.However,the reader should take care to understand that chemistry is not simply a mathematics problem.In every physical problem,the result must match the real world.In physics and science,dimensional analysis is a tool to find or check relations among physical quantities by using their dimensions.The dimension of a physical quantity is the combination of the fundamental physical dimensions(usually mass,length,time,electric charge,and temperature)which describe it;for example,speed has the dimension length/time,and may be measured in meters per second,miles per hour,or other units.Dimensional analysis is necessary because a physical law must be independent of the units used to measure the physical variables in order to be general for all cases.One of the most derivation elements from dimensional analysis is scaling and consequently arriving at similarity methods that branch out to two different groups namely self-similarity as the first one,and second kind that through them one can solve the most complex none-linear ODEs(Ordinary Differential Equations)and PDEs(Partial Differential Equations)as well.These equations can be solved either in Eulearian or Lagrangian coordinate systems with their associated BCs(Boundary Conditions)or ICs(Initial Conditions).Exemplary ODEs and PDEs in the form of none-linear can be seen in strong explosives or implosives scenario,where the results can easily be converted to induction of energy in a control forms for a peaceful purpose(i.e.,fission or fusion reactions).

Economic Evaluation of Grain Amaranth Production in Kamuli District, Uganda

In Uganda, grain amaranth is relatively new and has generally not been considered as an important crop compared to other grain crops and legumes. This study was therefore conducted to determine factors affecting adoption of grain amaranth growing, factors affecting production, and economic returns on investment of its production. The study was carried out in Kamuli district where a total of 174 grain amaranth farmers and 90 non-grain amaranth farmers were randomly selected and interviewed. Using descriptive statistics, regression analysis （logit model and a Cobb-Douglas type production function） and profitability ratios, it was found that grain amaranth is produced on a small scale and yields are low. Farmer adoption of the crop was favoured by age, gender （female）, education of the farmer, and source of income. The output was positively affected by the amount of labour and manure used in production, while a negative relationship existed between output and male farmers. The crop was most viable under small acreages （0.02-0.04 ha） with positive returns to investment of 0.016. Its production should therefore be encouraged because of its income generation potential and since it requires small land.

Novel Farming Innovation for High Production of Black Pepper （Piper nigrum L.） Planting Materials

In accordance to National Commodity Policy （2011-2020）, Malaysian government targets at expending the pepper cultivated area from the current 16,331 ha to 20,110 ha by year 2020. Based on a planting density of 2,000 vines/ha, there will be an urgent need of 7.588 million cuttings for the next five years in order to achieve this target. However, shortages of planting materials, low productivity and occurrence of pests and diseases remain as the major challenge of pepper industry nowadays. Therefore, a novel farming innovation, namely W-configuration cultivation method has been developed to ensure high production of planting materials for large-scale pepper cultivation and at the same time to maximize land use in pepper farm. A field evaluation was conducted to compare the cutting production among W-configuration, V-configuration and traditional cultivation method. W-configuration recorded the highest mean number of pepper cuttings produced with 11.97 cuttings per vine in every pruning cycle, or equivalent to 71% of increment as compared to 7.00 cuttings per vine produced from the traditional planting method. Meanwhile, V-configuration produced 8.91 of mean cuttings, which are significantly lower than those produced by W-configuration method and yet comparable to traditional method. Based on return on investment （ROI） analysis, implementation of W-configuration cultivation method was able to achieve 35% of return per cycle of planting within two years for the first cycle and upsurged to approximately 355% for the subsequence cycle. Furthermore, this novel innovation also out-yielded traditional planting method by 75.27% for the first and second year of green berry production. The ROI analysis proved the feasibility of this newly developed cultivation method to create potential new income for pepper smallholders in Malaysia, who traditionally cultivate pepper for its peppercorn production. This study also enlightened the thorough planting procedures of W-configuration cultivation method mainly for pepper cutting production.

Optimising local council's return on investment from annual pavement rehabilitation budgets through targeting of the average pavement condition index

A high quality transportation system is necessary in a modem economy, and a road network is a common and significant, component of the system. Road systems have two major objectives： to enable the movement of passenger vehicles and the movement of freight vehicles at reasonable speeds. An important part of the transportation system and an expensive investment, a functional road network must meet both objectives to main- tain an efficient economy. In Australia, the Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development reported that, in 2011/12, the total road length was approximately 900,000 kin, and the total road expenditure was approximately $19 billion. Good policy requires that infrastructure investments provide a return on investment, thus warranting judicious management to ensure that it is maintained in a cost effective manner. Recent studies in Queensland, Australia, have identified differences between financial and engi- neering professionals in their understanding of infrastructure depreciation, condition deterioration, and future funding needs. Furthermore, the Queensland Asset Sustainability Ratio （ASR） requires clearer definitions to ensure that infrastructure remains meaningful to all users. This study proposes a separate sustainability index for road pavements （SIR） unlike the ASR that combines all type of assets. The justification is our ability to assess road condition, the high value of road assets, relative value to other infrastructure, and advanced knowledge of deterioration relative to other infrastructure. The SIR involves community consultation to target an average pavement condition index （PCI）. This study also provides an alternative method to determine the optimal target PCI for a local

Research on the relationship between Pension Finance and the Supply-Side Structural Reform in China

The development of pension finance is of great significance to China. first of all, the development of pension finance is conducive to improving China＇s multi-level and multi-pillar pension system, promote the sustainable development of the social security system; secondly, the development of pension finance will create a new ＂blue ocean＂ in the financial markets, which is conducive to the improvement of China＇s financial system and capital market;finally, the development of pension finance will help supply-side reforms,which is conducive to the healthy development of the national economy of china. But now there are many difficulties： first, the top-design of China＇s social security system is not perfect; secondly, the current development model of pension finance in China is unclear, the return on investment mechanism is not perfect, the attractiveness of these projects needs to be improved; finally, under the background of Interact finance, mixed supervision is imminent. Therefore, under the new economic conditions must be structured from the supply side of the reform, the development of pension funds to seek the right ideas.

Thermal Physics and Statistical Mechanics Driven Inertial Confinement Fusion(ICF)Inducing a Controlled Thermonuclear Energy

In the 1970s,scientists began experimenting with powerful laser beams to compress and heat the hydrogen isotopes to the point of fusion,a technique called ICF(Inertial Confinement Fusion).In the“direct drive”approach to ICF,powerful beams of laser light are focused on a small spherical pellet containing micrograms of deuterium and tritium.The rapid heating caused by the laser“driver”makes the outer layer of the target explode.In keeping with Isaac Newton’s Third Law“For every action,there is an equal and opposite reaction”,the remaining portion of the target is driven inwards in a rocket-like implosion,causing compression of the fuel inside the capsule and the formation of a shock wave,which further heats the fuel in the very center and results in a self-sustaining burn.The fusion burn propagates outward through the cooler,outer regions of the capsule much more rapidly than the capsule can expand.Instead of magnetic fields,the plasma is confined by the inertia of its own mass—hence the term inertial confinement fusion.A similar process can be observed on an astrophysical scale in stars and the terrestrial uber world,that have exhausted their nuclear fuel,hence inertially or gravitationally collapsing and generating a supernova explosion,where the results can easily be converted to induction of energy in control forms for a peaceful purpose(i.e.,inertial fusion reaction)by means of thermal physics and statistical mechanics behavior of an ideal Fermi gas,utilizing Fermi-Degeneracy and Thomas-Fermi theory.The fundamental understanding of thermal physics and statistical mechanics enables us to have a better understanding of Fermi-Degeneracy as well as Thomas-Fermi theory of ideal gas,which results in laser compressing matter to a super high density for purpose of producing thermonuclear energy in way of controlled form for peaceful shape and form i.e.CTR(Controlled Thermonuclear Reaction).In this short review,we have concentrated on Fundamental of State Equations by driving them as it was evaluated in book Statistical Mechanics written by Mayer,J.and Mayer,M.in this article.

Analysis of South Korea’s Direct Investment in China

This article examines, from a dynamicperspective, thegeneralsituation ofthedevelopment oftheSouth Korean directinvestmentinChina since1992when thetwocountriesestablished diplomaticrelations.It probesinto manycharacteristicsoftheSouth Korean directinvestment in China: itslatestartyetrapid rise, the smaller averagevalueofKorean project investments, the accelerated process of localization by large South Korean enterprises in China, the diversified industrial distribution, and the wide-ranging geographical layout. It analyses reasonsforthe rapid increase in South Koreaninvestment in China:theuse of China’slow- priced production factors, the South Korean enterprises’ direct entry into the Chinese market, and the stable investment environment with fewer labour disputes that China provides. This article finally also proves that South Korean enterprises have achieved satisfactory results from their direct investment in China.

Strategic recommendations for financing green and sustainable energy projects

The main hindrances to the large-scale development of renewable-energy projects are the lack of bankability and the inability to align investments and investors with suitable financial instruments or robust policy measures.To illustrate a bankable project,this paper presents a research-based case study on the installation of solar photovoltaic panels on the rooftops of 195 trains of the Indian Railways.Detailed information on the annual running hours,exposure to sunlight,efficiency of solar photovoltaic generation and electrical power demands of each rail coach is considered to conduct a quantitative measure of the tentative amount of fossil fuel sav-ings.The purpose is to provide insight into the types of renewable-energy projects that can be highly attractive to financial institutions and promoters due to their lucrative internal return on investment.As seen in this case study,there are annual savings in diesel of 12323088 litres and a CO_(2) reduction of 32755 tonnes,with return on investment of 1.3 years.Furthermore,this study conducts a com-prehensive analysis of the limitations of existing renewable-energy project financing mechanisms in India.Subsequently,three policy measures are recommended to develop a robust financial mechanism that can effectively meet the needs of investors and investors.These measures include increasing equity injection through a buy-and-hold strategy,providing direct tax benefits to promoters and financing through real-estate investment trusts.The findings are highly relevant to address the challenges associated with bridging the financial gap between access to finance and capital investment in the renewable-energy sector,especially for Asian countries.

An Efficient Algorithm for the Optimal Market Timing over Two Stocks

In this paper, the optimal trading strategy in timing the market by switching between two stocks is given. In order to deal with a large sample size with a fast turnaround computation time, we propose a class of recursive algorithm. A simulation is given to verify the effectiveness of our method.

Analysis of the impacts of socioeconomic factors on hiring an external labor force in tilapia farming in Southern Togo

This study analyzed the financial profitability and the impacts of socioeconomic factors on hiring an external labor force in tilapia farming in Southern Togo.We obtained the primary data from 75 randomly selected tilapia farmers for socioeconomic analysis by a structured questionnaire.Logit regression and return on investment(ROI)were performed to analyze the influence of socioeconomic factors on the decision of tilapia farmers to hire an external labor force and financial profitability of tilapia farming in the study area,respectively.The results indicate that tilapia farming contributes to employment opportunities in the study area.However,the key variables such as economic diversification,farming experience and educational attainment significantly affect the farmers’decision to hire an external labor force in their farms.Furthermore,tilapia farming is a profitable activity based on the positive mean gross margin and mean net farm income.The ROI was 0.31,which implies that a return of USD 0.31 was obtained for the investment of every single dollar.The government must pay more attention by organizing training or re-training workshops for tilapia farmers,which would improve their socio-economic status.