The chaotic behavior among the oil prices, expectation of investors and stock returns: TAR-TR-GARCH copula and TAR-TR-TGARCH copula

This paper has two aims. The first one is to investigate the existence of chaotic structures in the oil prices, expectations of investors and stock returns by combining the Lyapunov exponent and Kolmogorov entropy, and the second one is to analyze the dependence behavior of oil prices, expectations of investors and stock returns from January 02, 1990, to June06, 2017. Lyapunov exponents and Kolmogorov entropy determined that the oil price and the stock return series exhibited chaotic behavior. TAR-TR-GARCH and TAR-TR-TGARCH copula methods were applied to study the co-movement among the selected variables. The results showed significant evidence of nonlinear tail dependence between the volatility of the oil prices, the expectations of investors and the stock returns. Further, upper and lower tail dependence and comovement between the analyzed series could not be rejected. Moreover, the TAR-TR-GARCH and TAR-TR-TGARCH copula methods revealed that the volatility of oil price had crucial effects on the stock returns and on the expectations of investors in the long run.

Patterns of and Driving Factors in Value Growth of Industrial Real Estate in the Context of Diversified Investors

Industrial real estate plays an increasingly important role in urban economic development and industrial restructuring.In the process of the development of industrial real estate,both the major investors of industrial real estate and the value growth patterns of industrial real estate have changed.The increase in the value of industrial real estate has contributed to the promotion of urban economic upgrading,social development,and industrial restructuring.In this paper,the investment model of industrial real estate from a single government investment to a diversified model was analyzed,and the value growth patterns of industrial real estate under these two models were elaborated.It is concluded that value growth patterns under the diversification model are more diverse.This paper divided the driving factors of diversified industrial real estate value growth into two types:source factors and secondary factors,used the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to quantify the driving factors,reached the conclusion that four factors including the industrial real estate market size and the level of independent technology of the enterprise had a major impact on the value growth of industrial real estate,and put forward suggestions for the rapid development of industrial real estate.

Cooperation Between Co-operative Business Organization and Investor Owned Firm to Stimulate Economic Growth of a Country： A Cooperative Advantage Approach

This study elaborates that the economic growth of a country depending on not only the business performance of the investor owned firms （IOFs）, but also the business surplus of the cooperative organizations （Co-ops）. The policy maker should have the level of understanding and competence to blend five different factors related to organizational structure and business model of the Co-ops and the IOFs to the five similarities factors on the managerial approach of them into one marked. The study investigated five similarities factors and included into a conceptual structural model with its six measurement models, economic growth model, general national factor model, market and industry factors model, Co-ops/IOFs opportunities/threat model, Co-ops/IOFs strength /weakness model, and lastly the Co-ops/IOFs firm dynamic/active： sales, profit, and lost model. Reliability of the six similarities measurement models was tested by the Delphi technique with a sample of 33 respondents. The study found that, apart from the six measurement models, it also has two intervening factor variables that will reduce the power and magnitude of the economic growth which will come from mismanagement of policy maker： These factors are the different in intemational culture among countries, and the global warming and natural disaster from the excess consumption and excess production. These selfish, competition and economic greedy of people will lead to economic, social, and natural disaster problems. To reduce the socioeconomic disadvantages and global disaster, board＇s committee, and Co-ops manager as well as chief executive officer （CEO） of the IOFs must have a good understanding on these five similarities factors. Appropriate management of these five similarities factors will lead the firms to reach their high managerial efficiency, customer value, firm value, and finally economic growth.

Architectures in the Shadow of ＂Investors＇ Urban Planning＂--Case Study of Avala Hotel in Budva, Montenegro

Avala Hotel in Budva, Montenegro, has undergone three reconstructions. Each of them led to significant spatial changes. The first hotel established the foundation of urbanization process in Budva, the building was too high compared to the old town walls in the surrounding and thus not well integrated. The second reconstruction was the only successful achievement. At this time, in the first detailed urban plan including hotel and its surrounding area, the conclusion was that it represents ＂high-quality, seaside-favorable ambience＂ that should not be harmed by further building expansion. The last, illegal reconstruction in 2006 resulted in over enlarged new building disrespectful of the surrounding and the previous design. Similarly, the 2008 new detailed urban plan was the creation of ＂investors＇ urban planning＂. Entirely driven by profit, it arranges building reconstructions with multiple enlargements. This study tends to point out contextual impacts of the three hotels on the surrounding area, with special focus on the last reconstruction and ＂investors＇ urban planning＂ phenomena. The applied research method is comparative, chronological analysis of the three hotels. The aim of this research paper is to inspire initiatives that will help overcoming declining and harmful synergy of architecture and new socio-economic phenomena. It is the only way leading to the significant architectural goal： creating refined, harmonized and high quality ambience.

THE SPIRIT OF CAPITALISM, NON-EXPECTEDUTILITY AND ASSET PRICING

This paper investigates testable restrictions on the time-series behavior of consumption and asset returns implied by a representative agent model with the spirit of capitalism in which intertemporal preference is represented by a utility function that generalizes conventional, time-additive, expected utility. In the recursive structure of preference, the author examines the implication for cosumptions, portfolio holdings, and stock-market prices when investors accumulate wealth not only for the sake of consumption but also for wealth-induced social status. When investors care about relative social status, the propensity to consume and risk-taking behavior will depend on social standards, and stock prices will be volatible. Hence, the spirit of capitalism seems to be a driving force behind stock-market volatility and economic growth. Because the elasticity df substitution and the coefficient of relative risk aversion are independent and the spirit of capitalism is introduced, the equity premium puzzle can be partially explained in the model.

Stochastic Optimal Economic Growth Model with Natural Resources

The paper examines an economic growth problem how social planners reasonably open up and retain natural resources. The objective is to maximize the total expected discounted utility of comsumption. Social planners＇ optimal decision and optimal expected rates at the steady state are derived. At last, how productivity and productivity shock affect on the expected growth rate, consumption-resources ratio and the fraction of exploited resources, are analyzed.

不确定性中的确定性--中国经济风险识别

为了揭示不确定性冲击下中国经济风险的确定性规律,本文基于预期经济增速分布,将不确定性与经济增长纳入“在险增长”的统一框架,以刻画经济不确定性与金融不确定性对经济风险的异质性影响。研究发现:不确定性冲击下的经济风险具有明显的确定性特征,伴随着不确定性升高,经济下行风险显著增加,经济上行风险较为稳定;当不确定性较低时,经济增速的潜在波动空间相对狭小,当不确定性较高时,经济增速具有较大的波动空间;不确定性与经济增长之间存在“双向反馈”的溢出循环机制,能够加剧不确定性的实际冲击效应;经济不确定性与金融不确定性对经济风险具有明显的异质性影响,无论是就冲击强度还是持续周期而言,经济不确定性的影响均更为显著。

预期信用损失模型实施与银行信贷过度增长

如何通过制定有效的贷款损失准备计提规则来影响银行信贷行为,进而促进经济高质量发展,是政策当局亟需解决的难题。鉴于此,本文利用贷款损失准备会计准则改革——2018年预期信用损失模型实施——作为准自然实验,运用渐进双重差分法,实证检验了预期信用损失模型是否及如何影响我国商业银行信贷过度增长。研究发现,预期信用损失模型可显著降低银行信贷过度增长,且这一结论在经过稳健性检验后仍然成立。从机制分析看,预期信用损失模型主要通过充分性效应和及时性效应两条路径作用于银行信贷过度增长。进一步的分析则表明,预期信用损失模型对于以权重法进行资本计量的银行和资本充足率较低的银行而言,其抑制信贷过度增长的作用更为突出。本文丰富了预期信用损失模型经济后果的有关研究,为会计准则制定与金融监管政策调整提供了有益的政策启示。

基于预期盈余增长的质量测度与定价能力

从质量溢价驱动因素视角构建基于预期盈余增长(expected earnings growth,EEG)的质量测度指标,分析该指标与股票预期收益的关系,进一步构造EEG质量因子并将其纳入Fama-French三因子模型,研究该因子的定价能力.研究发现:EEG质量测度指标可以衡量公司的预期盈余增长;EEG质量测度指标与股票预期收益显著正相关,表明EEG质量溢价显著存在;EEG质量因子对股票横截面组合收益的解释能力较强;引入EEG质量因子的四因子模型比Fama-French类模型具有更高的定价效率.研究结论可以丰富资产定价相关理论,为投资者理性决策、监管者培育良好投资理念和提升市场定价效率提供参考.

人口老龄化、新质生产力与经济高质量发展

实现人口规模巨大的现代化首先要厘清人口老龄化与经济增长的关系。当前我国人口发展面临着深刻而复杂的形势变化,人口负增长下“少子老龄化”将成为常态。习近平总书记提出加快形成新质生产力,从孕育推动经济发展新动能的角度指明了积极应对人口老龄化的新路径。论文以技术进步和人才培养作为发展新质生产力的着力点,通过构建包含干中学的内生增长模型,从理论层面阐述以预期寿命延长和生育率下降为特征的人口老龄化对经济增长的影响,并重点突出以人工智能为代表的技术进步和人力资本投资在应对人口老龄化负向增长效应时的重要作用。数值模拟结果显示,预期寿命延长通过鼓励生命周期储蓄增加了人工智能密度,进而提高了劳动生产率、促进了经济增长;生育率下降虽然促进了人力资本投资、提高了人工智能密度,但其直接负向增长效应大于间接正向劳动生产率效应,经济增长随生育率下降而放缓。论文进一步考察了生育支持政策对生育率和经济增长的影响,并且从人口发展视角阐释新质生产力重要论述的理论价值和现实意义,为探索人口老龄化背景下经济高质量发展提供理论依据。

2024年一季度中国经济运行的若干特点与全年经济展望

文章基于统计指标和统计数据,从生产、需求、收入和价格四个角度入手对2024年一季度经济运行情况进行分析,并提炼经济运行特征特点。从生产角度看,一季度经济增长5.3%,实现超预期增长,第二产业表现突出,第三产业增加值增速有所回落;从需求角度看,消费需求保持对经济增长的主要拉动作用,投资需求的拉动作用有所减弱,净出口需求有所恢复;从收入角度看,居民收入保持平稳增长,企业利润增速回升;从价格角度看,消费领域价格总体平稳,生产领域价格低位运行。基于对经济运行情况的分析,文章还对一季度经济增长超预期的原因,经济运行中面临的矛盾与挑战进行了探讨。最后,对全年经济运行进行了展望并提出政策发力方向。

早发型重度子痫前期合并胎儿生长受限期待治疗的妊娠结局探讨

目的分析早发型重度子痫前期合并胎儿生长受限期待治疗的妊娠结局。方法选取60例早发型重度子痫前期合并胎儿生长受限及未合并胎儿生长受限的产妇,其中合并胎儿生长受限的产妇30例纳入观察组,未合并胎儿生长受限的产妇30例纳入对照组。两组均采取期待治疗。比较两组产妇的并发症发生情况,围生期情况,新生儿并发症发生情况,观察组不同分娩孕龄围生儿结局。结果两组子痫、心力衰竭、胎盘早剥、单纯肝功能异常、单纯血小板减少、HELLP综合征发生率比较,均无显著差异(P>0.05)。观察组新生儿死亡率20.00%高于对照组的3.33%,新生儿出生体质量(1294.19±308.30)g低于对照组的(1599.25±392.28)g(P<0.05);两组剖宫产率、因胎儿因素终止妊娠率、分娩孕龄比较,均无显著差异(P>0.05)。观察组新生儿肺透明膜病发生率26.67%、心脏发育不全发生率23.33%高于对照组的3.33%、0(P<0.05);两组新生儿败血症、颅内出血、贫血发生率比较,均无显著差异(P>0.05)。观察组孕龄32周以上出生的围生儿死亡率0、心脏发育不全发生率5.26%、肺透明膜病发生率5.26%均低于孕龄30周以下围生儿的66.67%、66.67%、66.67%和孕龄30~31+6周围生儿的50.00%、50.00%、62.50%(P<0.05)。结论对早发型重度子痫前期合并胎儿生长受限的产妇实施期待治疗,不会增加产妇并发症,安全性较高。虽然围生儿死亡率、出生体质量、并发症发生率等指标较差,但是随着分娩孕龄的延长,围生儿的结局会有所改善,因而该方法具有较高的应用价值。

Economic Growth Expectation Targets,Elastic Constraints,and High-Quality Economic Development

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities)in China from 2006 to 2019,the empirical study finds that the target values of economic growth expectation can promote high-quality economic development,and there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between elastic target constraints and high-quality economic development.The elastic constraints can reduce the investment rate and improve the total factor productivity(TFP),which promotes high-quality economic development,but its mediating effect accounts for a small proportion.With the improvement of the marketization degree,the inhibiting effect of elastic constraints on high-quality economic development reduces.The analysis of the heterogeneity between the new or old normal and the levels of economic development shows that in the future,developed regions should set high target values and low elastic constraints,and underdeveloped regions should set high elastic constraints on the target values of economic growth expectation.

Avoiding the impact of deflation and deflation expectations on economic growth

This paper predicts that the Chinese economy will unlikely encounter inflation in the short term.The major risks posed to China currently are deflation and downward pressures.Macro-regulations should have a clear orientation,combining stable growth with prevention of deflation,and integrating demand-side regulation and supply-side structural reform.The focal point of the demand-side management is to set a reasonable bar for the growth rate of the economy and the rise of price levels in order to stabilize and guide market expectations.Policy makers should adopt a moderate and directional regulatory monetary policy,setting appropriate policy objectives for the prevention of deflation,as well as make use of a variety of policy measures.China should implement a structural fiscal policy in a proactive manner,giving extra dynamic ability to the implementation of policies so that they can be more effective.Afterwards,through a deep reform of the supply-side,China can reinforce economic restructuring and boost economic growth.Policy makers should pay close attention to the reform of key areas such as state-owned enterprises,land supply,finances,taxation,and prices.

子痫前期合并胎儿生长受限的母儿妊娠结局分析

目的探究子痫前期合并胎儿生长受限的母儿妊娠结局。方法选取2020年7月—2023年6月广西桂林市妇幼保健院产科收治的100例子痫前期患者实施回顾性分析,根据患者是否合并胎儿生长受限分组:未合并者是单一组,共计50例;合并者是合并组,共计50例。两组患者均在确诊子痫前期后实施期待治疗,统计两组胎儿生长情况、产妇并发症率、围生儿不良结局。结果单一组、合并组的胎儿生长情况比较无显著差异(P>0.05),单一组产妇并发症率小于合并组(P<0.05),单一组产妇围生儿不良结局发生率小于合并组(P<0.05)。结论子痫前期合并胎儿生长受限危害性大,会升高产妇并发症率、围生儿不良结局发生率,确诊后需尽快实施期待治疗,并定时检查,以尽可能延长妊娠时间,改善母婴结局。

个体投资者视角下汇率沟通对人民币汇率预期的影响研究——基于个体投资者“关注”及“情绪”渠道的分析

本文从外汇市场个体投资者的视角出发,考察汇率沟通能否基于个体投资者“关注”及“情绪”渠道影响其汇率预期。本文首先应用SVAR模型考察了汇率沟通、表征个体投资者“关注”及“情绪”的人民币搜索指数和NDF汇率的关系。结果表明,汇率沟通会导致搜索指数下降,即降低个体投资者关注及情绪水平。进一步,本文应用EGARCH模型,考察了搜索指数、汇率沟通及两者交乘项对NDF汇率的影响,结果表明正向沟通同搜索指数的交乘项对NDF的均值水平存在负向冲击。而负向沟通及中性沟通同搜索指数的交乘项对NDF的影响不显著。本文经验结论表明汇率沟通能有效影响个体投资者的“关注”和“情绪”水平,而正向汇率沟通能进一步抑制贬值预期。

盈利能力、投资者认知偏差与资产增长异象

近期的许多研究表明,股票收益率同滞后期资产增长率存在负向关系,此即著名的资产增长异象。本文以1999-2011年A股上市公司为样本,实证研究了A股市场的资产增长异象,并基于不同市场背景进一步考察了投资者认知偏差能否解释这种异象。研究发现:(1)A股市场整体上存在较弱的资产增长异象,主要由低盈利公司中较强的资产增长异象所致;(2)纵向来看,投资者情绪高涨时,A股市场存在较显著的资产增长异象;(3)投资者情绪高涨时,低盈利公司的资产增长异象最强;投资者情绪低落时,低盈利公司仍存在显著的资产增长异象。本文从投资者认知偏差的视角证明和解释了A股市场的资产增长异象,并为投资者情绪影响资产定价提供了直接证据。

基于DSSW模型投资者情绪与股价指数关系研究

基于DSSW模型,本文构建了不同预期时间跨度下投资者情绪与股票价格的关系模型,并依据预期时间跨度不同,投资者情绪的均值和方差有不同的特征,分析得出长、短期投资者情绪对股票价格的不同影响。进一步以好淡指数作为投资者情绪的代理变量,检验不同预期时间跨度的好淡指数与股价指数的关系,验证理论分析结论。最后给出对策建议。

早发型重度子痫前期合并胎儿生长受限期待治疗的妊娠结局探讨

目的：探讨期待治疗中早发型重度子痫前期合并胎儿生长受限（FGR）的母儿结局，为临床处理提供依据。方法：回顾性分析2002年1月至2012年12月厦门大学附属第一医院产科收治的早发型重度子痫前期患者143例的临床资料，其中合并FGR48例（合并FGR组），未合并FGR95例（未合并FGR组）。比较两组一般情况、孕产妇并发症、分娩情况和新生儿情况及143例患者不同分娩孕周（〈孕30周、孕30～3l^＋6周、≥孕32周）围生儿结局。结果：①两组一般情况、期待治疗平均延长孕周和孕产妇并发症（HELLP综合征、子痫、胎盘早剥、心衰等）的发生率比较，差异均无统计学意义（P〉0．05）。②合并FGR组分娩孕周晚于未合并FGR组（P〈0．05），但其新生儿出生体重小于未合并FGR组（P〈0．05）。合并FGR组围生儿死亡率高于未合并FGR组（P〈0．05）。③新生儿并发症中，合并FGR组心脏发育不全的发生率高于未合并FGR组（P〈0．05）。④随着分娩孕周增加，早发型重度子痫前期患者的围生儿死亡率和新生儿肺透明膜病的发生率逐渐降低，差异均有统计学意义（P〈0．05）。合并FGR围生儿死亡率和总体心脏发育不全的发生率在分娩孕周≥32周后也明显降低（P〈0．05）。结论：对于早发型重度子痫前期合并FGR的患者，期待治疗并不增加孕产妇并发症。合并FGR的患儿心脏发育不全发生率及围生儿死亡率明显增加，但期待治疗后通过延长孕周可改善其围生儿结局。

通货膨胀预期、企业成长性与企业投资

本文实证检验了通货膨胀预期对企业投资行为的影响及其内部机理,分析了通货膨胀预期变化的经济后果。研究发现,预期通货膨胀率的上升会促使微观企业增加当期资本支出规模,但是降低了投资效率。进一步分析结果表明:第一,预期通货膨胀率越高,高成长性企业的投资水平显著提高,投资效率显著下降,这一结果在低成长性企业中并不显著;第二,预期通货膨胀率升高,银行更愿意借款给企业,这一结果在高成长性企业中同样显著,在低成长性企业中并不显著。这说明通货膨胀预期通过外部融资促使公司投资,高成长性企业比低成长性企业能够获得更多的银行贷款,从而增加资本投资,而低成长性企业受通货膨胀预期的影响被弱化。