Prediction of column failure modes based on artificial neural network

To implement the performance-based seismic design of engineered structures,the failure modes of members must be classified.The classification method of column failure modes is analyzed using data from the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center(PEER).The main factors affecting failure modes of columns include the hoop ratios,longitudinal reinforcement ratios,ratios of transverse reinforcement spacing to section depth,aspect ratios,axial compression ratios,and flexure-shear ratios.This study proposes a data-driven prediction model based on an artificial neural network(ANN)to identify the column failure modes.In this study,111 groups of data are used,out of which 89 are used as training data and 22 are used as test data,and the ANN prediction model of failure modes is developed.The results show that the proposed method based on ANN is superior to traditional methods in identifying the column failure modes.

An Improved Extreme Learning Machine Prediction Model for Ionospheric Total Electron Content

Earth’s ionosphere is an important medium for navigation,communication,and radio wave transmission.Total Electron Content(TEC)is a descriptive quantify for ionospheric research.However,the traditional empirical model could not fully consider the changes of TEC time series,the prediction accuracy level of TEC data performed not high.In this study,an improved Extreme Learning Machine(ELM)model is proposed for ionospheric TEC prediction.Improvements involved the use of Empirical Mode Decomposition(EMD)and a Fuzzy C-Means(FCM)clustering algorithm to pre-process data used as input to the ELM model.The proposed model fully uses the TEC data characteristics and expected to perform better prediction accuracy.TEC measurements provided by the Centre for Orbit Determination in Europe(CODE)were used to evaluate the performance of the improved ELM model in terms of prediction accuracy,applicable latitude,and the number of required training samples.Experimental results produced a Mean Relative Error(MRE)and a Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of 8.5%and 1.39 TECU,respectively,outperforming the ELM algorithm(RMSE=2.33 TECU and MRE=17.1%).The improved ELM model exhibited particularly high prediction accuracy in mid-latitude regions,with a mean relative error of 7.6%.This value improved further as the number of available training data increased and when 20-doys data were trained,achieving a mean relative error of 4.9%.These results suggest the proposed model offers higher prediction accuracy than conventional algorithms.

Prediction Model of Soil Nutrients Loss Based on Artificial Neural Network

On the basis of Artificial Neural Network theory, a back propagation neural network with one middle layer is building in this paper, and its algorithms is also given, Using this BP network model, study the case of Malian-River basin. The results by calculating show that the solution based on BP algorithms are consis- tent with those based multiple - variables linear regression model. They also indicate that BP model in this paper is reasonable and BP algorithms are feasible.

Application of artificial neural networks for operating speed prediction at horizontal curves: a case study in Egypt

Horizontal alignment greatly affects the speedof vehicles at rural roads. Therefore, it is necessary toanalyze and predict vehicles speed on curve sections.Numerous studies took rural two-lane as research subjectsand provided models for predicting operating speeds.However, less attention has been paid to multi-lane highwaysespecially in Egypt. In this research, field operatingspeed data of both cars and trucks on 78 curve sections offour multi-lane highways is collected. With the data, correlationbetween operating speed （V85） and alignment isanalyzed. The paper includes two separate relevant analyses.The first analysis uses the regression models toinvestigate the relationships between V85 as dependentvariable, and horizontal alignment and roadway factors asindependent variables. This analysis proposes two predictingmodels for cars and trucks. The second analysisuses the artificial neural networks （ANNs） to explore theprevious relationships. It is found that the ANN modelinggives the best prediction model. The most influential variableon V85 for cars is the radius of curve. Also, for V85 fortrucks, the most influential variable is the median width.Finally, the derived models have statistics within theacceptable regions and they are conceptually reasonable.

Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Lung Cancer Survival

The object of our present study is to develop a piecewise constant hazard model by using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to capture the complex shapes of the hazard functions, which cannot be achieved with conventional survival analysis models like Cox proportional hazard. We propose a more convenient approach to the PEANN created by Fornili et al. to handle a large amount of data. In particular, it provides much better prediction accuracies over both the Poisson regression and generalized estimating equations. This has been demonstrated with lung cancer patient data taken from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program. The quality of the proposed model is evaluated by using several error measurement criteria.

Neural Network Modeling and Prediction of Surface Roughness in Machining Aluminum Alloys

Artificial neural network is a powerful technique of computational intelligence and has been applied in a variety of fields such as engineering and computer science. This paper deals with the neural network modeling and prediction of surface roughness in machining aluminum alloys using data collected from both force and vibration sensors. Two neural network models, including a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model and a Radial Basis Function (RBF) model, were developed in the present study. Each model includes eight inputs and five outputs. The eight inputs include the cutting speed, the ratio of the feed rate to the tool-edge radius, cutting forces in three directions, and cutting vibrations in three directions. The five outputs are five surface roughness parameters. Described in detail is how training and test data were generated from real-world machining experiments that covered a wide range of cutting conditions. The results show that the MLP model provides significantly higher accuracy of prediction for surface roughness than does the RBF model.

Neural network-based model for prediction of permanent deformation of unbound granular materials

Several available mechanistic-empirical pavement design methods fail to include predictive model for permanent deformation(PD)of unbound granular materials(UGMs),which make these methods more conservative.In addition,there are limited regression models capable of predicting the PD under multistress levels,and these models have regression limitations and generally fail to cover the complexity of UGM behaviour.Recent researches are focused on using new methods of computational intelligence systems to address the problems,such as artificial neural network(ANN).In this context,we aim to develop an artificial neural model to predict the PD of UGMs exposed to repeated loads.Extensive repeated load triaxial tests(RLTTs)were conducted on base and subbase materials locally available in Victoria,Australia to investigate the PD properties of the tested materials and to prepare the database of the neural networks.Specimens were prepared over different moisture contents and gradations to cover a wide testing matrix.The ANN model consists of one input layer with five neurons,one hidden layer with twelve neurons,and one output layer with one neuron.The five inputs were the number of load cycles,deviatoric stress,moisture content,coefficient of uniformity,and coefficient of curvature.The sensitivity analysis showed that the most important indicator that impacts PD is the number of load cycles with influence factor of 41%.It shows that the ANN method is rapid and efficient to predict the PD,which could be implemented in the Austroads pavement design method.

NONLINEAR MODELING AND CONTROLLING OF ARTIFICIAL MUSCLE SYSTEM USING NEURAL NETWORKS

The pneumatic artificial muscles are widely used in the fields of medicalrobots, etc. Neural networks are applied to modeling and controlling of artificial muscle system. Asingle-joint artificial muscle test system is designed. The recursive prediction error (RPE)algorithm which yields faster convergence than back propagation (BP) algorithm is applied to trainthe neural networks. The realization of RPE algorithm is given. The difference of modeling ofartificial muscles using neural networks with different input nodes and different hidden layer nodesis discussed. On this basis the nonlinear control scheme using neural networks for artificialmuscle system has been introduced. The experimental results show that the nonlinear control schemeyields faster response and higher control accuracy than the traditional linear control scheme.

Artificial Neural Networks Based Integrated Predictive Modelling of Quality Characteristics in CNC Turning of Cantilever Bars

The objective of this study is to develop an effective approach for product quality prediction in Computer Numerical Control turning of cantilever bars. A systematic predictive modelling procedure based on experimental investigations, neural network modelling and various statistical analysis tools is designed to produce the most accurate, practical and cost-effective prediction model. The modeling procedure begins by exploring the relationships between cutting parameters known to have an influence on quality characteristics of machined parts, such as dimensional errors, form errors and surface roughness, as well as their sensitivity to the process conditions. Based on these explorations and using numerous statistical tools, the most relevant variables to include in the prediction model are identified and fused using several artificial neural network architectures. An application on CNC turning of cantilever bars demonstrates that the proposed modeling procedure can be effectively and advantageously applied to quality characteristics prediction due to its simplicity, accuracy and efficiency. The experimental validation reveals that the resulting prediction model can correctly predict the quality characteristics of machined parts under variable machining conditions.

A Predictive Modeling Based on Regression and Artificial Neural Network Analysis of Laser Transformation Hardening for Cylindrical Steel Workpieces

Laser surface hardening is a very promising hardening process for ferrous alloys where transformations occur during cooling after laser heating in the solid state. The characteristics of the hardened surface depend on the physicochemical properties of the material as well as the heating system parameters. To exploit the benefits presented by the laser hardening process, it is necessary to develop an integrated strategy to control the process parameters in order to produce desired hardened surface attributes without being forced to use the traditional and fastidious trial and error procedures. This study presents a comprehensive modelling approach for predicting the hardened surface physical and geometrical attributes. The laser surface transformation hardening of cylindrical AISI 4340 steel workpieces is modeled using the conventional regression equation method as well as artificial neural network method. The process parameters included in the study are laser power, beam scanning speed, and the workpiece rotational speed. The upper and the lower limits for each parameter are chosen considering the start of the transformation hardening and the maximum hardened zone without surface melting. The resulting models are able to predict the depths representing the maximum hardness zone, the hardness drop zone, and the overheated zone without martensite transformation. Because of its ability to model highly nonlinear problems, the ANN based model presents the best modelling results and can predict the hardness profile with good accuracy.

Assessment of bearing capacity of interfering strip footings located near sloping surface considering artificial neural network technique

The bearing capacity of interfering footings located near the slope face suffers from reduced bearing capacity due to the formation of the curtailed passive zone. Depending upon the position of the footing, their spacing and steepness of the slope different extents of bearing capacity reduction can be exhibited. A series of finite element investigation has been done with the aid of Plaxis 3 D v AE.01 to elucidate the influence of various geotechnical and geometrical parameters on the ultimate bearing capacity of interfering surface strip footings located at the crest of the natural soil slope. Based on the large database obtained from the numerical simulation, a6-8-1 Artificial Neural Network architecture has been considered for the assessment of the ultimate bearing capacity of interfering strip footings placed on the crest of natural soil slope. Sensitivity analyses have been conducted to establish the relative significance of the contributory parameters, which exhibited that for the stated problem, apart from shear strength parameters, the setback ratio and spacing of footing are the prime contributory parameters.

Improved artificial neural network method for predicting photovoltaic output performance

To ensure the safety and stability of power grids with photovoltaic(PV)gen eration integrati on,it is necessary to predict the output perform a nee of PV modules un der varyi ng operating con ditions.In this paper,an improved artificial neural network(ANN)method is proposed to predict the electrical characteristics of a PV module by combining several neural networks under different environmental conditions.To study the dependenee of the output performance on the solar irradianee and temperature,the proposed neural network model is composed of four neural networks,it called multineural network(MANN).Each neural network consists of three layers,in which the input is solar radiation,and the module temperature and output are five physical parameters of the single diode model.The experimental data were divided into four groups and used for training the neural networks.The electrical properties of PV modules,including l-V curves,PV curves,and normalized root mean square error,were obtained and discussed.The effectiveness and accuracy of this method is verified by the experimental data for d iff ere nt types of PV modules.Compared with the traditional single-ANN(SANN)method,the proposed method shows be社er accuracy under different operating conditions.

Land use change modeling through an integrated Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network and Markov Chain analysis(case study: Arasbaran region, Iran)

Temporal land use/land cover (LULC) change information provides a variety of applications for informed management of land resources. The aim of this study was to detect and predict LULC changes in the Arasbaran region using an integrated Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network and Markov Chain analysis. At the first step, multi-temporal Landsat images (1990, 2002 and 2014) were processed using ancillary data and were classified into seven LULC categories of high density forest, low-density forest, agriculture, grassland, barren land, water and urban area. Next, LULC changes were detected for three time profiles, 1990–2002, 2002–2014 and 1990–2014. A 2014 LULC map of the study area was further simulated (for model performance evaluation) applying 1990 and 2002 map layers. In addition, a collection of spatial variables was also used for modeling LULC change processes as driving forces. The actual and simulated 2014 LULC change maps were cross-tabulated and compared to ensure model simulation success and the results indicated an overall accuracy and kappa coefficient of 97.79% and 0.992, respectively. Having the model properly validated, LULC change was predicted up to the year 2025. The results demonstrated that 992 and 1592 ha of high and lowdensity forests were degraded during 1990–2014,respectively, while 422 ha were added to the extent of residential areas with a growth rate of 17.58 ha per year. The developed model predicted a considerable degradation trend for the forest categories through 2025, accounting for 489 and 531 ha of loss for high and low-density forests, respectively. By way of contrast, residential area and farmland categories will increase up to 211 and 427 ha, respectively. The integrated prediction model and customary area data can be used for practical management efforts by simulating vegetation dynamics and future LULC change trajectories.

E-Learning Optimization Using Supervised Artificial Neural-Network

Improving learning outcome has always been an important motivating factor in educational inquiry. In a blended learning environment where e-learning and traditional face to face class tutoring are combined, there are opportunities to explore the role of technology in improving student’s grades. A student’s performance is impacted by many factors such as engagement, self-regulation, peer interaction, tutor’s experience and tutors’ time involvement with students. Furthermore, e-course design factors such as providing personalized learning are an urgent requirement for improved learning process. In this paper, an artificial neural network model is introduced as a type of supervised learning, meaning that the network is provided with example input parameters of learning and the desired optimized and correct output for that input. We also describe, by utilizing e-learning interactions and social analytics how to use artificial neural network to produce a converging mathematical model. Then students’ performance can be efficiently predicted and so the danger of failing in an enrolled e-course should be reduced.

An artificial neural network visible mathematical model for real-time prediction of multiphase flowing bottom-hole pressure in wellbores

Accurate prediction of multiphase flowing bottom-hole pressure(FBHP)in wellbores is an important factor required for optimal tubing design and production optimization.Existing empirical correlations and mechanistic models provide inaccurate FBHP predictions when applied to real-time field datasets because they were developed with laboratory-dependent parameters.Most machine learning(ML)models for FBHP prediction are developed with real-time field data but presented as black-box models.In addition,these ML models cannot be reproduced by other users because the dataset used for training the machine learning algorithm is not open source.These make using the ML models on new datasets difficult.This study presents an artificial neural network(ANN)visible mathematical model for real-time multiphase FBHP prediction in wellbores.A total of 1001 normalized real-time field data points were first used in developing an ANN black-box model.The data points were randomly divided into three different sets;70%for training,15%for validation,and the remaining 15%for testing.Statistical analysis showed that using the Levenberg-Marquardt training optimization algorithm(trainlm),hyperbolic tangent activation function(tansig),and three hidden layers with 20,15 and 15 neurons in the first,second and third hidden layers respectively achieved the best performance.The trained ANN model was then translated into an ANN visible mathematical model by extracting the tuned weights and biases.Trend analysis shows that the new model produced the expected effects of physical attributes on FBHP.Furthermore,statistical and graphical error analysis results show that the new model outperformed existing empirical correlations,mechanistic models,and an ANN white-box model.Training of the ANN on a larger dataset containing new data points covering a wider range of each input parameter can broaden the applicability domain of the proposed ANN visible mathematical model.

Prediction Model Based on BP-ANN and PCA for the Peak Occurrence of Liriomyza Huidobrensis

Liriomyza huidobrensis （Blanchard） is an important vegetable pest of pathology. In order to improve the accuracy of prediction of Liriomyza huidobrensis and to control the Liriomyza huidobrensis effectively, this paper presents a new prediction model by principal components analysis （PCA） and back propagation artificial neural network （BP-ANN） methods. The historical data from 1999 to 2007 on population occurrence are analyzed in order to find out a non-linear relationship between the pest occurrence and the meteorological factors. And then by using analysis results, the prediction model of Liriomyza huidobrensis occurrence in Jianshui in Yunnan is built. The new model has successfully applied to verify the paddy stem borer population occurrence in 2006. Test results show that the new prediction model with BP-ANN and PCA can improve the prediction accuracy.

A Novel Cultural Crowd Model Toward Cognitive Artificial Intelligence

Existing literature shows cultural crowd management has unforeseen issues due to four dynamic elements;time,capacity,speed,and culture.Crosscultural variations are increasing the complexity level because each mass and event have different characteristics and challenges.However,no prior study has employed the six Hofstede Cultural Dimensions(HCD)for predicting crowd behaviors.This study aims to develop the Cultural Crowd-Artificial Neural Network(CC-ANN)learning model that considers crowd’s HCD to predict their physical(distance and speed)and social(collectivity and cohesion)characteristics.The model was developed towards a cognitive intelligent decision support tool where the predicted characteristics affect the estimated regulation plan’s time and capacity.We designed the experiments as four groups to analyze the proposed model’s outcomes and extract the interrelations between the HCD of crowd’s grouped individuals and their physical and social characteristics.Furthermore,the extracted interrelations were verified with the dataset’s statistical correlation analysis with a P-value<0.05.Results demonstrate that the predicted crowd’s characteristics were positively/negatively affected by their considered cultural features.Similarly,analyzing outcomes identified the most influential HCD for predicting crowd behavior.The results also show that the CC-ANN model improves the prediction and learning performance for the crowd behavior because the achieved accepted level of accuracy does not exceed 10 to 20 epochs in most cases.Moreover,the performance improved by 90%,93%respectively in some cases.Finally,all prediction best cases were related to one or more cultural features with a low error of 0.048,0.117,0.010,and 0.014 mean squared error,indicating a novel cultural learning model.

A Study on Prediction of Weld Geometry in Laser Overlap Welding of Low Carbon Galvanized Steel Using ANN-Based Models

Predictive modelling for quality analysis becomes one of the most critical requirements for a continuous improvement of reliability, efficiency and safety of laser welding process. Accurate and effective model to perform non-destructive quality estimation is an essential part of this assessment. This paper presents a structured approach developed to design an effective artificial neural network based model for predicting the weld bead dimensional characteristic in laser overlap welding of low carbon galvanized steel. The modelling approach is based on the analysis of direct and interaction effects of laser welding parameters such as laser power, welding speed, laser beam diameter and gap on weld bead dimensional characteristics such as depth of penetration, width at top surface and width at interface. The data used in this analysis was derived from structured experimental investigations according to Taguchi method and exhaustive FEM based 3D modelling and simulation efforts. Using a factorial design, different neural network based prediction models were developed, implemented and evaluated. The models were trained and tested using experimental data, supported with the data generated by the 3D simulation. Hold-out test and k-fold cross validation combined to various statistical tools were used to evaluate the influence of the laser welding parameters on the performances of the models. The results demonstrated that the proposed approach resulted successfully in a consistent model providing accurate and reliable predictions of weld bead dimensional characteristics under variable welding conditions. The best model presents prediction errors lower than 7% for the three weld quality characteristics.

Predicting and validating the load-settlement behavior of large-scale geosynthetic-reinforced soil abutments using hybrid intelligent modeling

Settlement prediction of geosynthetic-reinforced soil(GRS)abutments under service loading conditions is an arduous and challenging task for practicing geotechnical/civil engineers.Hence,in this paper,a novel hybrid artificial intelligence(AI)-based model was developed by the combination of artificial neural network(ANN)and Harris hawks’optimisation(HHO),that is,ANN-HHO,to predict the settlement of the GRS abutments.Five other robust intelligent models such as support vector regression(SVR),Gaussian process regression(GPR),relevance vector machine(RVM),sequential minimal optimisation regression(SMOR),and least-median square regression(LMSR)were constructed and compared to the ANN-HHO model.The predictive strength,relalibility and robustness of the model were evaluated based on rigorous statistical testing,ranking criteria,multi-criteria approach,uncertainity analysis and sensitivity analysis(SA).Moreover,the predictive veracity of the model was also substantiated against several large-scale independent experimental studies on GRS abutments reported in the scientific literature.The acquired findings demonstrated that the ANN-HHO model predicted the settlement of GRS abutments with reasonable accuracy and yielded superior performance in comparison to counterpart models.Therefore,it becomes one of predictive tools employed by geotechnical/civil engineers in preliminary decision-making when investigating the in-service performance of GRS abutments.Finally,the model has been converted into a simple mathematical formulation for easy hand calculations,and it is proved cost-effective and less time-consuming in comparison to experimental tests and numerical simulations.

基于在线监测时间序列数据的水质预测模型研究进展

当前地表水突发性污染事件频发,已造成严重的环境和社会影响,对环境监管部门应急处置能力建设提出了新要求和新挑战。地表水水质在线监测数据具有高频率和高时效等特点,系统论述了基于在线监测时间序列数据的水质预测模型的研究现状和进展,包括数据软测量、预处理方法和水质预测模型等,分析了不同水质预测模型在应用过程中存在的问题,并对未来研究方向进行了展望,以期为水质预测预警和环境监管提供技术支持和方法参考。