Modelling the iron ore price index:A new perspective from a hybrid data reconstructed EEMD-GORU model

As iron ore is the fundamental steel production resource,predicting its price is strategically important for risk management at related enterprises and projects.Based on a signal decomposition technology and an artificial neural network,this paper proposes a hybrid EEMD-GORU model and a novel data reconstruction method to explore the price risk and fluctuation correlations between China's iron ore futures and spot markets,and to forecast the price index series of China's and international iron ore spot markets from the futures market.The analysis found that the iron ore futures market in China better reflected the price fluctuations and risk factors in the imported and international iron ore spot markets.However,the forward price in China's iron ore futures market was unable to adequately reflect the changes in the domestic iron ore market,and was therefore unable to fully disseminate domestic iron ore market information.The proposed model was found to provide better market risk perceptions and predictions through its combinations of the different volatility information in futures and spot markets.The results are valuable ref-erences for the early-warning and management of the related enterprise project risks.

格陵兰自治政府的矿产资源开发与中国参与研究

历史上,丹麦王国政府与格陵兰地方政府因格陵兰岛矿产资源所有权展开了旷日持久的争夺。总体而言,格陵兰政府经历了从没有矿产资源所有权和开采权、与丹麦王国政府共享资源管理和开采权、到拥有完全的所有权、管理权、开采权和矿产资源活动的收益。格陵兰自治政府成立后,改革矿业管理部门,制定矿业发展战略、政策和矿业法律法规,积极招商引资,试图在矿产资源开发方面大干一番。自治政府在矿产部门的作为,一方面为其独立道路创造经济基础,另一方面也意在通过资源外交,展开独立自主的外交活动,在世人面前树立主权国家的形象。在实践层面,格陵兰岛目前没有正在运行的矿产资源工程,矿产资源的开发面临着种种挑战,但资源外交却取得了较大的成功。中国以技术、劳动力和资金优势支持北极原住民政府的资源开发战略和政策,积极参与北极地区的经济开发活动。相比澳大利亚等国,中国目前参与的格陵兰矿业活动并不多,但却经常触动丹麦、格陵兰媒体和民众的敏感神经。