Investment Environment Assessment and Strategic Policy for Subjects of Federation in Russia

Russia is the largest neighboring country of China. Between the two countries, the resources and industry are complemented, the political mutual trust is at a high level, and trade cooperation has a broad prospect. Choosing the best regions and the best industries to strengthen investment in Russia has a major strategic significance in promoting ‘the Belt and Road Initiative’ and China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor Construction. However, the related researches are extremely limited. The investment environment is unclear, and the investment risk is unknown, which seriously restrict the investment in Russia and the trade cooperation with Russia. Our research team carried out scientific expedition, government visits and scientific research cooperation in Russia for several years, and obtained a great number of first-hand valuable data. According to the analysis on the data and Russian regional policies, this study constructed an investment environment evaluation model(ESI-PRA model), scientific assessed the investment environment for 83 subjects of federation in Russia, in terms of economic, social, infrastructure, policy, resource and accessibility, classified 4 types of investment regions, chose 3 investment priority regions, revealed the investment priority industries, demonstrated the main investment risks, and proposed the strategic policies. The research results provide direct scientific and technological support for strategic decisions, such as investment in Russia, bilateral economic and trade cooperation, and overseas layout of Chinese-funded enterprises. Moreover, it has an important practical and strategic significance for improving overseas geo-strategic interests of China and ensuring the construction of China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor.

Cost-profit analysis for Japan-Russia and Japan-South Korea interconnectors

This paper describes the results of cost-profit analysis related to interconnectors for Japan-Russia and JapanSouth Korea based on the Asia International Grid Connection Study Group 2^(nd) report. The Group has been established in 2016 for conducting research on international electric power networks in Asia from the viewpoint of technology, investment and legal framework. 2^(nd) report of the Group was published in June 2018, examining the profitability of an interconnectors between Japan and neighboring countries. The Group has calculated expected profit from operation of these interconnectors.The Group has categorized interconnector business into four models from the survey of preceding and current business on grids and interconnectors. To clarify profitability, expected internal rate of return(IRR) was calculated for each business model based on estimated investment cost for each route. When interconnector is dedicated to specific power plants or suppliers and electricity can be sold at Japan wholesale market at 2016-2017 price level, positive IRR levels are expected in case that Free on Board(FOB) price lower than 7 JPY/kWh. When the investment will be covered by electricity tariff by final consumers, tariff for consumers will just slightly increase by approximately 0.1 JPY/kWh.

Route designs and cost estimation for Japan-Russia and Japan-South Korea interconnections

This paper describes route designs and cost estimation for possible interconnections between Japan-Russia and between Japan-South Korea based on the Asia International Grid Connection Study Group 2^(nd) report. The Group has conducted a desktop study to design several cable routes as possible options. To optimize the route, the group studied a wide range of open data, regarding sea depth, fishery zones, geographic condition, available transmission capacity in connecting points inside Japan and so on. The result of desktop study shows that it is possible to keep sea depth for planned routes less than 300 m and length for most of designed routes is less than 600 km. Compare to existing undersea cables in Europe, proposed routes are not challenging from technical and geological viewpoints.The study shows that investment cost range, including cost for grid enhancement inside Japan, is from around 200 bn JPY to 600 bn JPY, depending on the routes. Annualized cost range is from around 8 to 24 bn JPY(for 25-year operation), which is not so large compare to 1800 bn JPY-average annual investment in transmission infrastructure by 10 power utilities in the past 23 years.

Measures and Strategic Conception of Japan to Deal with the Russia–Ukraine Crisis

After the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, Japan wasted no time in advancing its national strategy and actively promoted shuttle diplomacy with the United States(U.S.), Europe, East Asia, and neighboring countries of Ukraine around sanctions against Russia based on strategic considerations and the goal of maximizing national interests. Japan regarded this conflict as an important opportunity for an international strategic game, in an attempt to move and overturn the postwar international order and reconstruct the new global order with the U.S., Europe, and Japan as the core countries dominating the military, science and technology, and economic spheres. In response to the crisis, Japan made a brief policy adjustment—from the initial hesitation to the imposition of active sanctions and pressure on Russia—to reverse the passive situation on the issue of the Four Northern Islands and weaken Russia’s strength. Japan also took the opportunity to promote the “China threat theory”;strengthen the quadrilateral mechanism between the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia;provoke regional confrontation;and try to gain a new Cold War dividend.

On Russia' s Korean Peninsula Policy

The past two years have witnessed great fluctuations ininternational oil prices,and diplomatic efforts,both above andunder the table,by major powers around this issue.The currenttension in the war-threatened Iraq has added more uncertainties to thefuture world oil situation.Will the world oil supply and demand change?What impact would this exert on big powers’ oil strategy choices,geopolitics as well as world economy?What should China do in such asituation?To find the answers to these questions,at the invitation of theeditor of the Contemporary International Relations,seven experts fromChina Institute of Contemporary International Relations gathered to have adiscussion in early February this year.Naturally,they have differentviews over many issues.Still,we hope our readers would find theirdiscussion interesting.Following is the list of participants.

The U. S. Policy Readjustment towards Russia

Since the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, the United States and Rus-sia have gone through a tortuous road in forging their post-Cold War relation-ship. At present, they are neither bipolar rivals, nor strategic partners as initiatedin early 1990s. They have instead turned from maintaining amicability into copingwith the reality. Their discrepancies in terms of strategies and bilateral relationshave emerged one after another in recent years and became intensified especially af-ter Operation Desert Fox against Iraq by the United States and Britain

Review on Wind Power Development and Relevant Policies between China and Japan

China has abundant wind energy resources and huge development potential among developing countries.Japan is a developed country that planned to increase the use of renewable energy,especially wind energy.This research is aimed at reviewing the development of wind power and relevant policies between China and Japan.Firstly,we introduced the current status of global wind power development,such as the global installed capacity of wind power.The annual development of wind power generation in China and Japan is compared,and the distribution characteristics of wind resources are compared.Furthermore,the market share in China and Japan is introduced.Finally,according to the comparison of the government policies between China and Japan,we pointed out the existing problems in the wind power industry.In addition,we gave some suggestions on the development of wind power for China and Japan.These suggestions should be taken into account when designing national climate policies and have an important reference value for the future development of China’s wind energy industry.

Russia's Third World Policy

The status of the Third World in Russian foreign policy plummeted in the immediate post-Soviet years, during which Moscow pursued a "Look West" policy. When the design of the West to contain and weaken the country came to light however, vigilance heightened in Moscow and timely foreign policy readjustments were under way by raising the weight of the Third World.

The Transformation of German Security Policy in the Context of the Russia–Ukraine Crisis

Germany has recently taken multiple actions to adjust its security policy: for instance, promoting re-militarization, increasing foreign military intervention and overseas operations, and adopting measures to comprehensively safeguard security in the domains of energy, supply chain, and ideology. Externally, such moves result directly from the threat of a hot war emanating from the Russia–Ukraine crisis. Germany is severely deficient in hard power and the rules and order on which it previously relied are proving increasingly ineffective. The nation is also witnessing a sharply rising sense of insecurity as its inter-system competition with nonWestern countries intensifies. Internally, the present policy shift represents a continuation of German foreign policy transformations initiated during the Merkel era. This change is strongly driven by the new ruling coalition, especially the Green Party, and is staunchly supported by the public. In the future, Germany will probably further normalize its military, intensify its confrontations with non-Western countries, and diversify its means of comprehensively safeguarding security. However, security-related policy transformation processes will be time-consuming and Germany’s investments will not immediately pay off. Traditionally, Germany tends toward the pragmatic and balanced implementation of policies. Thus, it is less likely to pursue military hegemony than to increasingly assume security responsibilities within the Western alliance.

Contradictions in the TrumpAdministration’s Russia Policy

The duality and ambivalence of Trump’s Russia policy is the result of differences among US policy-makers on strategic interests and their perception of Russia. It is also deeply influenced by the structural contradictions and interactions between the two countries. There will be no "new Cold War" between the US and Russia, and "limited partnership" will be the new normal of the bilateral relationship in the 21 st century.

Diverse Voices and Democratic Policymaking： What Causes Japan＇s Nuclear Phase-Out Plan to Fail？

The nuclear disaster at Fukushima has raised questions about the nature of democratic policymaking in Japan. Focusing on nuclear policymaking post-Fukushima, this paper considers ways in which the diversity of public opinion can be connected with legislative processes. The disaster forced the government to rethink existing nuclear policies. To infuse public voices into government policy, the Democratic Party of Japan （DPJ） government introduced a new method of public participation called ＂national debates＂, comprising a series of public hearings, mass public comments, and deliberative polling. The government also attached importance to anti-nuclear rallies and opinion polls conducted by the media. The national debates highlighted that the majority of Japanese people supported a nuclear-free society; as a result, the government drafted a new energy plan to phase out nuclear power by 2039. Owing to both domestic and international opposition, the plan failed to become law. Progress was also impeded by the public＇s contradictory demands. However, this paper posits that inefficient legislative deliberation was the main factor behind the policy failure. The Japanese case suggests that effective legislative deliberation is crucial to assessing and coordinating numerous divergent public voices.

Explaining Japan＇s Shift to Foreign Policy Activism： Security Challenges and Perverse Political Accountability

The paper examines the root causes of Japan＇s rapid shift to foreign policy activism. To explain the causes, I develop the so-called ＂perverse political accountability＂ approach. Specifically, the approach claims that a growing security challenge from China and North Korea, and US policy favoring Japan＇s foreign policy activism structure. Japan＇s domestic political condition that the majority of Japanese people become more conservative and nationalistic. Such shift in the Japanese people＇s preference has been both creating and reinforcing a perverse accountability by which the leaders or parties willing to adopt hard-line foreign policies are better off electorally while the leaders or parties remaining soft-line on foreign affairs are worse off. The perverse accountability not only leads to a severe partisan imbalance between the conservative parties and the leftist parties, but also gives the most conservative party, e.g., the Liberal Democratic Party （LDP）, a greater chance of coming to office and of pursuing assertive foreign policy they favor. Thus, the perverse accountability is at the center of current Japan＇s turn to foreign policy activism. This finding contributes to an enhanced understanding for Japan＇s shift to assertive foreign policy.

On the Road for Friendship and Cooperation:Sidelights on the Visit of Liu Hongcai,Vice President of CAFIU to Russia,Japan and Cambodia

At the invitation of Civic Chamber of Russian Federation,Junior Chamber International Japan and Civil Society Alliance Forum, Cambodia, Liu Hongcai,Deputy Chairman of Foreign Affairs Committee of Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.

JAPAN＇S READJUSTMENT OF CHINA POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT TREND OF CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONSHIP

China-Japan Relationship is a very special bilateral tie in international relations since it＇s a matter of regional peace and stability. The Abe administration has long pursued a ＂bet-hedging＂ strategy towards China. Although it claims that it attaches great importance to the ties between Japan and China, it pursues ＂Strategic Diplomacy＂ and ＂Value-oriented Diplomacy＂ to hype up the so-called ＂China Threat＂ in international community. It not only makes China-Japan relations to continuously fall into a vicious circle of＂repeated deterioration＂, but also become an uncertainty for peace and stability in East Asia and the regional security. In addition, it reflects the ＂diplomacy dilemma＂ of the Abe administration＇s China policy.

Russia's CIS Policy and the Challenges It Faces

Russia’s Adjustments on CIS Policy The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has gone through several stages and Russian policy toward CIS has

日韩包容性生育支持政策的探索与成效反思

为应对生育率下降危机,日本和韩国分别就生育政策进行转型,其包容性生育支持政策对我国优化生育支持措施具有借鉴意义。日韩的包容性生育支持政策可归纳为经济支持、保育支持和就业支持三大类,涵盖税收减免、经济补贴、住房优惠、托育服务、就业帮扶等方面,这些政策在一定程度上缓解了女性的工作和育儿冲突,减轻了家庭育儿负担。但截至目前,日韩的生育支持政策并未真正解决两国生育率不断下降的问题,亦未扭转日益严重的生育危机。我国正处于生育政策转型的关键时期,应借鉴日韩两国的经验,吸取两国的教训,立足人口发展规律,把握好政策前瞻性与灵活性,加强财政保障生育支持的普惠性,在社会层面多维度鼓励生育,培育积极的婚育观念和社会风尚,加快构建以人为本的生育配套支持体系,从而积极应对低生育水平和少子化社会的困境。

Resources and international climate change policy gridlock

Few other policy zones are as complex as the issue of climate change.If the more pessimistic projections of climate change doom are correct,then the failure to address the issue is likely to be catastrophic and irreversible.The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted the potential extinction of many species and that the existence of small-island and other vulnerable countries will be threatened if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue.Climate change is a transboundary problem and requires unprecedented levels of cooperation between states and serious and sustained responses from major emitters.However,the growing demand and consumption of natural resources for continued energy security and cornucopian economic growth have undermined the outcomes of international climate change negotiations.It is argued here that there is a strong connection between the major emitters'positions at United Nations'climate talks,their possessions,dependence and consumption of natural resources,and the continued undermining of international climate change policy for unsustainable growth.This paper assesses the resource politics of the US,China,India,Canada,Russia,and Saudi Arabia and their positions at climate talks to show the link between lack of climate change policy progress and the positions of these main players.

Reflections on the Return of the China-Japan Relationship to the Normal Track

The China-Japan relationship has swung between deterioration and improvement in the 21st century while Japanese leaders'cognition and Japanese public opinion remain operative at a deep level.The return of the bilateral relationship in 2018 to the normal development track was aided by Japan's shift toward coordination,China's re-shaped policy,and a boost by the Trump administration.Though the China-Japan relationship will continue improving in the short run,it is unlikely“deterioratiomimprovcment”cycles will end since too many glaring structural contradictions exist.While memories of their intense history and today's territorial issues linger,the fluctuation of Japan*s diplomatic options and weak Japanese public opinion for improved relations with China will continue the same cyclical,but not forward,momentum.

China and Russia on the Baltic Sea: Between Rivalry and Cooperation

The Russian-Chinese cooperation conducted on sea basin conducted in the 21st century is aimed at limiting the US ability to control global transport routes,especially energy transport carriers.The community of interests outlined in this way allows for undertaking a number of political and economic initiatives and the use of demonstration of strength in regions where the national interests of both countries are located.Its scope is limited by existing divergences,which particularly concern the European policy of both countries.Chinese plans to build the One Belt One Road transport system are violating the status quo in Eurasia in favour of Beijing.While under the Asian policy both countries have managed to reach a compromise regarding the way of economic activity and the formula for building this merger,the scale of divergence of interests in Europe limits the possibility of reaching a similar agreement.Russia’s goal is primarily to limit the US’s ability to control northern shipping routes,followed by maintaining political and economic influence in Europe in the context of China’s increasing activity and the gradual decrease in the demand for energy resources.For China,the goal is to make the most effective use of the transport system to Europe,ultimately based on the One Belt One Road project.Therefore,the only common strategic goals of both countries in relation to Europe are striving to transfer the burden of US maritime activity from Asian reservoirs to the waters of the Artic and North Atlantic the seas surrounding Europe.However,the Chinese from this group exclude the Baltic Sea,which is to be an area of political stability.However,in the assumptions of Russian policy,the Baltic is to be a substitute region for conducting Arctic rivalry.The existing discrepancies mean that the scope of European cooperation of both countries is limited and will focus on limiting the American dominance on maritime shipping routes and economic undertakings enabling the realization of the interests of both countries.