Beijing Review Observer:Japan’s Incredible Calmness and Strength OVERCOMING A CATACLYSM The Japanese begin to put their shattered economy back on track

Earthquake,tsunami,nuclear plantb reakdown.Each is a major catast rophe.But Japan has been hit by all of them.Homelessness,economic losses,release of radiation.Each is a huge challenge.Now Japan must face all three.How will Japan respond to the domino-like disaster

Causes and Remedies of the Japan＇s Long-lasting Recession： Lessons for China

Japan has suffered from sluggish economic growth and recession since the early 1990s. In this paper, we analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy （the lost decade）. Economies Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has argued that Japan＇s lost decade is an example of a liquidity trap. However, our empirical analysis shows that stagnation of the Japanese economy comes from its vertical IS curve rather than a horizontal LM curve, so the Japanese economy has been facing structural problems rather than a temporary downturn. The vertical IS curve is caused by an insensitivity of investrnent to a lower interest rate partly because of the decline of sales due to the aging population and firms not wanting to invest. The structural problems come from the aging demographic, which is often neglected by scholars and policy-makers, and also from the allocation of transfers from the central government to local governments, and the unwillingness of Japanese banks to lend money to startup businesses and small and medium enterprises （SMEs）, mainly because of Basel capital requirements. Many countries, like China, are expected to face similar issues, particularly given the aging population. The present paper will address why the Japanese economy has been trapped in a prolonged slowdown and provide some remedies for revitalizing the economy.

Decline of oil prices and the negative interest rate policy in Japan

In April 2013,the Bank of Japan(BOJ)introduced an inflation target of 2%with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth.But due to lower international oil prices it was unable to achieve this target and was forced to take further measures.Hence,in February 2016,the BOJ adopted a negative interest rate policy by massively increasing the money supply through the purchase of long-term Japanese government bonds(JGB).The BOJ had previously only purchased short-term government bonds,a policy that flattened the yield curve of JGBs.On the one hand,banks reduced the number of government bonds they purchased because short-term bond yields had become negative.The interest rates of long-term government bond up to 15 years even became negative.On the other hand,bank loans to corporates did not increase,due to Japanese economy’s vertical investment-saving(IS)curve.The purpose of this paper is to show that the monetary policy through implementation of the zero interest rate and more recently through the negative interest rate could not help the Japanese economy to recover from the long-lasting recession and these are not the remedy.It is of key importance to make the IS curve downward rather than vertical.That means the rate of return on investment must be positive and companies must be willing to invest even if interest rates are set too low.Japan’s long-term recession is due to structural problems that cannot be solved by its current monetary policy.The paper also explains why the BOJ has to reduce its 2%inflation target in the present low oil price era.