Time Series Models for Short Term Prediction of the Incidence of Japanese Encephalitis in Xianyang City, P R China

Objective To construct a model of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average （SARIMA） for forecasting the epidemic of Japanese encephalitis （JE） in Xianyang, Shaanxi, China, and provide valuable reference information for JE control and prevention. Methods Theoretically epidemiologic study was employed in the research process. Monthly incidence data on JE for the period from Jan 2005 to Sep 2014 were obtained from a passive surveillance system at the Center for Diseases Prevention and Control in Xianyang, Shaanxi province. An optimal SARIMA model was developed for JE incidence from 2005 to 2013 with the Box and Jenkins approach. This SARIMA model could predict JE incidence for the year 2014 and 2015. Results SARIMA （1, 1, 1） （2, 1, 1）12 was considered to be the best model with the lowest Bayesian information criterion, Akaike information criterion, Mean Absolute Error values, the highest R2, and a lower Mean Absolute Percent Error. SARIMA （1, 1, 1） （2, 1, 1）12 was stationary and accurate for predicting JE incidence in Xianyang. The predicted incidence, around 0.3/100 000 from June to August in 2014 with low errors, was higher compared with the actual incidence. Therefore, SARIMA （1, 1, 1） （2, 1, 1）12 appeared to be reliable and accurate and could be applied to incidence prediction. Conclusions The proposed prediction model could provide clues to early identification of the JE incidence that is increased abnormally （≥0.4/100 000）. According to the predicted results in 2014, the JE incidence in Xianyang will decline slightly and reach its peak from June to August.The authors wish to thank the staff from the CDCs from 13 counties of Xianyang, Shaanxi province, China, for their contribution to Japanese encephalitis cases reporting.

Factors associated with intention to undergo specific health guidance among Japanese workers using health belief model

Objectives: To examine the factors associated with the intention to undergo “specific health guidance”. Methods: Self-reported questionnaire data were collected from 4861 health insurance union members of a company in Japan from August to September 2010. The information gathered included the intention to undergo “specific health guidance,” the Health Belief Model (HBM) subcomponents (perceived severity, susceptibility, benefit, and barriers), other factors related to undergoing specific health guidance, sex, and age. Perceived threat and net benefit were the main HBM components. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the associations between intention and the main HBM components, i.e., perceived threat and net benefit. We used two models with intention as the dependent variable;Model 1 used four HBM subcomponents, and Model 2 used perceived threat and net benefit as independent variables. Results: A total of 3457 individuals answered all variables (response rate;71.1%). Perceived severity (OR: 1.83, 95%CI: 1.59 - 2.10), benefit (OR: 6.91, 95%CI: 5.94 - 8.04), barriers (OR: 0.11, 95%CI: 0.09 - 0.13), perceived threat (OR: 1.52, 95%CI: 1.31 - 1.76), and net benefit (OR: 11.28, 95%CI: 9.60 - 13.25) were related to intention (all p < 0.01). Multivariate analysis showed that net benefit (OR: 11.23, 95%CI: 9.55 - 13.20) had a stronger correlation with intention than did perceived benefit (OR: 4.67, 95%CI: 3.95 - 5.51) and barriers (OR: 0.15, 95%CI: 0.13 - 0.18) (all p < 0.01). Conclusions: The results suggested that the main HBM components may predict health behavior better than the subcomponents. These results may effectively promote the benefits of, and reduce barriers to, programs aiming to increase participation in specific health guidance.

Empirical Analysis of NATREX Model on Misalignment of Japanese Yen's Real Exchange Rate

Using Natural Real Exchange Rate model and combining with actual economic situations in Japan,we set up equilibrium real exchange rate model of Japanese Yen.Based on the model we assess the misalignment and also analyze its reason since the beginning of Yen's fluctuation.Finally we get conclusions as follows: Yen/Dollar real exchange rate has always been fluctuating acutely.Overvaluation alternates with undervaluation,either of which may last three to five years.Japanese government's too much intervention in nominal exchange rate is a very important factor of the misalignment.Overvaluation does much negative effect on the economy,especially in a period when the economy shrinks due to lacking for domestic consumption demand.In that case,currency crisis will probably soon break out.

ADOPTION OF CASBEE BY JAPANESE HOUSE BUILDERS

The Comprehensive Assessment of Systems for Built Environment Efficiency(CASBEE)for Home is the first national voluntary Green Building Program for residential structures in Japan.The effect of builder demographic factors on the adoption of the CASBEE for Home program were investigated since the success of CASBEE for Home will be heavily reliant on the usage of the program.In this study,the adoption of the CASBEE for Home program by home builders is modeled as a two-stage process with builder awareness preceding the actual use of CASBEE for Home.The results show that both firm size and the type of homes built influence Japanese builder’s awareness of the CASBEE for Home program.In addition,respondents who had participated in the 200-Year House Program,another voluntary program,were significantly more likely to use CASBEE for Home.Finally,the number of years a builder has been in business both increased their awareness and usage of the CASBEE for Home program.Our results suggest that the likelihood of adopting the CASBEE for Home program was influenced by the internal resources available,the type of customers being served,and the business experience of the firm.

Psychosocial Factors Affecting the Use of Mammography Testing for Breast Cancer Susceptibility: An Eight-Month Follow-Up Study in a Middle-Aged Japanese Woman Sample

We examined the psychosocial factors affecting middle-aged Japanese women’s intentions to undergo mammography, as well as their actual usage of mammography by applying the Parallel Processing Model (PPM) of self regulation longitudinally. A total of 1030 middle-aged women living in all parts of Japan participated in this study through internet research from September 2010 to May 2011. The participants were evaluated on the basis of a battery of questionnaires mainly including demographics, perceived breast cancer risk, worry about breast cancer, mammography testing beliefs, intentions to use mammography, seeking information about mammography, and actual usage of mammography thrice over an eight-month period. The main results were as follows: 1) Perceived risk and cancer worry affected the intention of undergoing mammography, and this effect was mediated by beliefs about mammography testing. 2) Intention to use mammography and past mammography usage predicted future usage of mammography, with past mammography usage being the strongest predictor. 3) Information seeking about mammography was the strongest predictor of using mammography during the eight-month follow-up period of middle-aged women who had not undergone any mammography testing. PPM was a useful model to explain the mechanism behind middle-aged Japanese women’s intentions to use mammography, as well as their actual usage of mammography. In addition, past mammography experience was the strongest predictor of regular mammography usage and information seeking was a critical factor for the first-usage of mammography.

Analysis of the Impact of the Decline in Crude Oil Imports on the Japanese Economy

In Japan, crude oil use depends almost exclusively on imports, mainly from the Middle East. Therefore, guaranteeing crude oil imports is an important issue for the Japanese energy policy. To analyze the impact of a decrease in crude oil imports, two features of crude oil as an energy good should be taken into consideration, namely being a factor of production in the energy sector and feedstock in petroleum and coal products. This study uses the GTAP and GTAP-E models to evaluate the impact of the decrease in crude oil imports in Japan, applying the same methodology and exogenous values, and analyzes the difference of the simulation results between the two models. In Japan, crude oil is used in two sectors： as feedstock in petroleum and coal products, and as a factor of production in the electricity sector. When energy goods are used as feedstock, the GTAP model, in which energy goods are treated as intermediate inputs with fixed coefficients, is suitable for analysis. The GTAP-E model, which incorporates an energy substitution structure into the GTAP model, is, on the other hand, suitable for analyzing energy goods when they are used as a factor of production. Furthermore, this study uses both a static analysis and an analysis incorporating capital accumulation effects to evaluate short-term, as well as medium to long-term impacts. The simulation results clearly indicate that, in the GTAP-E model, when crude oil imports from the Middle East decrease, Japan attempts to increase its crude oil imports from other regions, but by less than in the case of the GTAP model. The results of this study show that, for energy goods used mainly as feedstock, such as crude oil, analysis with fixed coefficients presents more realistic simulation results than those using the energy substitution structure.

Study on the Impacts of Japanese Positive List System on the Chinese Frozen Vegetable Exportation

This paper mainly studies the Japanese policy, especially the Positive List System and Health Quarantine System, on the Chinese agricultural products exports, taking the frozen vegetable for example. The authors carry out studies on the related polices, consider the non-policy factors, making comparative analysis among the three countries: China, the USA and Thailand, utilizing trade gravity model. Finally the authors present suggestions to the breaking of the trade barriers.

Helicobacter pylori-infected animal models are extremely suitable for the investigation of gastric carcinogenesis

Although various animal models have been developed to clarify gastric carcinogenesis, apparent mechanism of gastric cancer was not clarified in recent years. Since the recognition of the pathogenicity of Helocobacter pylori（H pylori）, several animal models with H pylori infection have been developed to confirm the association between Hpylori and gastric cancer. Nonhuman primate and rodent models were suitable for this study. Japanese monkey model revealed atrophic gastritis and p53 mutation after long-term infection of Hpylori. Mongolian gerbil model showed the development of gastric carcinoma with H pylori infection alone, as well as with combination of chemical carcinogens, such as N-methyl- N-nitrosourea and N-methyl-N-nitro-N＇-nitrosoguanidine. The histopathological changes of these animal models after H pylori inoculation are closely similar to those in human beings with Hpylori infection. Eradication therapy attenuated the development of gastric cancer in Hpylori- infected Mongolian gerbil. Although several features of animal models differ from those seen in human beings, these experimental models provide a starting point for further studies to clarify the mechanism of gastric carcinogenesis as a result of Hpylon infection and assist the planning of eradication therapy to prevent gastric carcinoma.

叙事医学在日本的落地与临床实践模式探究

在全球医学实践中,叙事医学在提高医生沟通能力、使医生更关注患者个体经验、提升医疗服务质量方面显示出其独特的价值。20世纪90年代,日本引入叙事医学。日本医学界在翻译出版西方叙事医学书籍的基础上,积极探索叙事医学与本国临床实践的结合,提出了符合日本医疗特点的叙事医学临床实践理论与模式,特别是在糖尿病、护理与养老领域成果卓著。以这三个领域为案例,分析日本叙事医学临床落地实践模式,以期为中国蓬勃兴起的叙事医学发展提供参考与借鉴。

“新文科”背景下日语专业人才培养模式的探索

新文科背景下日语人才的培养既有困境又面临挑战。在此形势下,长沙学院日语专业进行了一些探索。一是顺应新形势,通过社会调研和企业调研,及时调整培养目标。二是改革课程体系,开设人文素养课程和跨专业课程,推进学科融合。三是改革实践教学,开设结合地方特色的实践课程,开设校企合作课程,推进信息技术与实践教学相结合,强化校企合作育人。

中日数字服务贸易潜力及影响因素分析

在数字服务贸易迅猛发展的背景下,我国不断深化与世界各国的数字服务贸易合作,日本是我国数字服务贸易进出口的主要市场之一。基于此,有必要判断中日数字服务贸易的潜力并找出其影响因素,从而为中日数字服务贸易合作的推进提供对策建议。采用随机前沿引力模型,以2013—2022年为考察期,以中日两国17个共同的主要数字服务贸易伙伴国为参照系,从进出口与出口双视角测度中日数字服务贸易潜力及影响因素发现,中日两国在数字服务贸易上有较大的发展潜力和提升空间,中国对日本出口效率的改善空间更大。可通过完善数字基础设施建设、加强知识产权保护、提升开放水平,寻求数字贸易共识以及改善政府效能等多种方式,进一步提高贸易效率,挖掘、释放中日双方贸易潜力。

合作学习法在日语教学中的应用实践与总结——以日语文学选读课程为例

“日语文学选读”是大学日语专业非常重要的课程,由于大部分日本文学类课程都是采取教师讲授、学生被动接受的传统教学方法,其教学效果并不理想。因此,我们将当代教学理论与策略之一的合作学习法运用于高校日语文学类课堂教学实践中,根据教学内容,采用小组分工、学生课下分工合作、课堂展现、教师总结等几个步骤进行了教学试验和实践。实践证实合作学习法能够激发学生学习潜能和积极性,提高学习效果。合作学习法是提高日语文学类课堂教学效果的有益尝试,同时也为外语教学研究提供了新的思路。

高职日语专业“岗课赛证”融通育人模式的思考

“岗课赛证”融通是一种新型教育模式,以岗位需求、课程设置、技能竞赛和证书体系相融合为宗旨,通过产业链与教育链的深度融合,培养更多具有实践能力和创新精神的高素质人才。当前,高职教育面临诸多困境,要在困境中求生存、求发展,必须要努力探索一条符合高职特色的专业建设之路。文章以高职日语专业为例,分析“岗课赛证”融通育人模式下该专业谋求可持续发展的新途径。

“恳谈会”路径下智库参与日本国家安全决策研究

[目的/意义]探究“恳谈会”路径下智库在日本国家安全政策形成和传播中的参与状况,并阐明智库在其中的作用,能够丰富和发展智库研究理论与方法,为我国新型智库建设提供可借鉴的经验与启示。[方法/过程]本文分析20世纪90年代初以来日本政策结构中不断变化的决策模式如何影响智库作用发挥,通过查看第二次安倍政权时期有关日本国家安全保障的论述及专家小组的构成及其观点,深入剖析智库参与日本国家安全保障和集体自卫决策辩论状况及其发挥的作用。[结果/结论]本文阐明了日本决策模式的变迁与智库在日本政府决策过程中发挥作用的结构条件之间的联系,揭示了在竞争日趋激烈的时代智库通过政府“恳谈会”等路径为政府部门提供政策建议、帮助制定和调整相关政策等渗透决策过程的策略,并表明智库关键学者在为日本决策者提供政策建议方面一贯的持续性作用。

“日本模式”对会计信息国际可比性的影响及其对我国的启示

虽然在日本模式下还有日本公认会计准则(J-GAAP)、美国公认会计准则(US-GAAP)或日本修订的国际准则(JMIS)等其他选择,但越来越多的日本公司已经采用或计划采用IFRS。在总结日本模式形成过程的基础上,以日本东京证券交易所的新增自愿采用IFRS上市公司为研究对象,发现新增自愿采用IFRS公司的会计信息国际可比性会显著提升。进一步研究发现,自愿采用IFRS的公司通过提升会计信息的国际可比性,促进了企业海外业务的显著拓展,会计信息国际可比性起到了重要的中介作用。

从认知角度看“想起来”“想出来”和“想到”的语义内涵及其表述功能

本文从认知角度出发,考察心理动词“想”后续趋向补语构成的“想起来”“想出来”和“想到”结构的语义内涵及其表述功能。由于三者在语义上有相通之处,使用时容易造成混淆,特别是对于汉语非母语的学习者来说,准确地把握其用法会有一定的难度。本文从趋向动词“起”“出”“到”“来”的语义特征入手,以语义分析法,通过分析各事件构成的异质性,说明“想起来”“想出来”和“想到”语义和用法上的差异与其认知模式密切相关。另外,通过汉日语言对比,进一步明确三者的异同,旨在为汉语教学提供更多的借鉴和参考,帮助学习者加深对汉语动趋结构的理解。

基于记忆模型的日语指示用法再构建——以“この/その/あの”的语境指示用法为中心

本文以名词为先行词的语境指示用法为研究对象,在话语管理理论视域下,基于记忆模型构建语境指示用法模型:语篇中导入的要素最初进入说话人的短期记忆储存库里,如果说话人无法确定该要素,那么该要素只能停留在短期记忆库里。但是,如果在长期记忆库里储存有相同要素,那么导入短期记忆的要素与长期记忆的该要素之间就会建立链接。基于此模型,日语指示词中,对于只存在于短期记忆内的要素用「そ」指示词进行指示,对于长期记忆里的要素用「あ」指示词进行指示,而「こ」指示词则是当说话人将长期记忆内的要素仿佛浮现在眼前似的进行直接描述时使用。该研究摒弃了传统的“听话人知识领域”这一概念,从认知心理学角度对语境指示用法进行了考察,有助于了解说话人和听话人在交流中的认知过程,揭示人类语言处理的基本机制。

日本传统家具在近代“西化”的造型与风格研究

明治维新以前,日本的传统家具借鉴和学习中国汉唐家具文化。至近代的明治维新开始,日本开始积极吸取西方家具设计思想及造型、工艺与技术等工业化成果。笔者通过对日本传统家具在近代化进程中"西化"的家具造型以及吸取西方现代主义风格的大量案例分析,探究了日本从传统家具到近代家具在造型与风格演变发展的轨迹。

WHBE兔与日本大耳白兔腹泻型肠易激综合征模型的肠道菌群研究

目的比较分析WHBE兔和日本大耳白(Japanese white rabbit,JW)兔腹泻型肠易激综合征(irritable bowel syndrome,IBS)模型肠道菌群的差异性。方法 WHBE兔和JW兔各16只,按品系随机分为两组,即正常对照(NC)组和IBS模型组,每组8只。采用湿热应激复合番泻叶方法建立腹泻型IBS兔模型,观察实验兔的腹围指数、粪便含水量、结肠转运功能,处死后分别取结肠组织和结肠内容物进行病理组织学观察和肠道菌群多样性分析。结果与NC组比,IBS模型兔均出现腹围指数和粪便含水量增加,结肠转运时间缩短,但结肠组织未见病理性改变;同时IBS模型兔Shannon指数和Chao1指数均显著下降(P<0.05)。根据OTU分类分析的结果,厚壁菌门和拟杆菌门为兔肠道菌群的绝对优势菌群。与NC组比较,WHBE兔IBS模型组厚壁菌门、疣微菌门、绿弯菌门、Akk菌属、链球菌属均明显下降(P<0.05,P<0.01),拟杆菌门和rc4-4菌属丰度显著上升(P<0.05,P<0.01);而JW兔IBS模型组优杆菌属和罕见小球菌属均显著上升(P<0.05),乳酸杆菌属、粪杆菌属、韦荣球菌属和链球菌属均显著下降(P<0.05)。与JW兔NC组比,WHBE兔NC组厚壁菌门、Odoribacter菌属、韦荣球菌属、链球菌属、颤螺旋菌属、Pseudoflavonifractor菌属较低(P<0.05,P<0.01),拟杆菌门、疣微菌门、优杆菌属、粪杆菌属、Akk菌属较高(P<0.05,P<0.01)。与JW兔IBS模型组比,WHBE兔IBS模型rc4-4菌属、粪杆菌属、梭菌属的丰度较高(P<0.05,P<0.01),而厚壁菌门、多尔氏菌属、粪球菌属和罕见小球菌属的丰度则较低(P<0.05,P<0.01)。结论 IBS模型兔存在肠道菌群失调,导致菌群多样性降低;WHBE兔和JW兔IBS模型肠道菌群变化均具有其自身的特点,且具有明显的差异性。