Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

Spatio-temporal distribution of phytoplankton in the Danjiangkou Reservoir, a water source area for the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (Middle Route), China

One of the water source areas of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is the Danjiangkou Reservoir （DJKR）. To understand seasonal variation in phytoplankton composition, abundance and distribution in the DJKR area before water diversion, as well as to estimate potential risks of water quality after water diversion, we conducted an investigation on phytoplankton in the DJKR from August 2008 to May 2009. The investigation included 10 sampling sites, each with four depths of 0.5, 5, 10, and 20 m. In this study, 117 taxa belonging to 76 genera were identified, consisting of diatoms （39 taxa）, green algae （47 taxa）, blue-green algae （19 taxa）, and others （12 taxa）. Annual average phytoplankton abundance was 2.01×10^6 ind./L, and the highest value was 14.72 ×10^6 ind/L （at site 3 in August 2008）. Phytoplankton abundance in front of the Danjiangkou Dam （DJKD） was higher than that of the Danjiang Reservoir Basin. Phytoplankton distribution showed a vertical declining trend from 0.5 m to 20 m at most sites in August 2008 （especially at sites of 1, 2, 4 and 10）, but no distinct pattern in other sampling months. In December 2008 and March 2009, Stephanodiseus sp. was the most abundant species, amounting to 55.23% and 72.34%, respectively. We propose that high abundance ofStephanodiscus sp. may have contributed greatly to the frequent occurrence of Stephanodiscus sp. blooms in middle-low reaches of the Hanjiang River during the early spring of 2009. In comparison with previous studies conducted from 1992 to 2006, annual average phytoplankton density, green algae and blue-green algae species, as well as major nutrient concentrations increased, while phytoplankton diversity indices declined. This indicates a gradual decline in water quality. More research should be conducted and countermeasures taken to prevent further deterioration of water quality in the DJKR.

LAND USE CHANGE AND ITS SOCIO-ECONOMIC DRIVING FORCES UNDER STRESS OF PROJECT IN OLD RESERVOIR AREA——Case Study of Linshui Reservoir Area of Dahonghe Reservoir in Sichuan Province

The old reservoir areas built in 1950s- 1970s left behind many socio-economic problems, because of the administrative backward migration and little migration fund, and all these problems would be tied to land. Based on interviewing with peasant households, combining land use survey and socio-economic statistical index, this paper analyzed land use change and its corresponding driving forces in Linshui reservoir area of Dahonghe Reservoir. Results showed that land use change in the reservoir area was mainly embodied on low-lying land submergence and migration requisition land. The former changed the land use patterns, and the latter mainly reconstructed original land property and made land over-fragmented. Cultivated land per capita was 0.041ha in this area, below the cordon of cultivated land per capita enacted by FAO. Currently, there were still 30.25% of peasant households being short of grain in trimester of one year, and there were 35.27% of people living under the poverty line. The conditions of eco-environmerit in Linshui Reservoir Area were worse, and healthy and sub-healthy eco-environment accounted for less proportion, composed of green belt around the reservoir area and paddy field ecosystem, and economic forest and orchard ecosystem, respectively. The stress of the reservoir project was macroscopic background to analyze the driving factors of land use change, and real underlying diving factor of the land use change in the area was the change of cultural landscape under the stress of reservoir project. The rapid increase of population was the key factor to induce the change of man-land relationship in the reservoir area, the low level of rural economy was the crucial factor to decide how migrants input for production, and the belief of migrants, influencing the land use patterns in a certain extent, was the inducing factor to keep land use stable. The low-lying submergence and infrastructure construction accompanied the reservoir project were leading factors driving land use change in the area, while changes in land use patterns, after the reservoir being built, were the responses of peasant households＇ behaviors to land use change.

Estimation of Potential Risk of Reservoir-Induced Earthquake for the Proposed Hydroelectric Project on the Yangtze Gorges

The proposed hydroelectric project on the Yangtze Gorges will be one of the largest power stations in the world.The problem of induced seismicity to the project has attracted much attention throughout China and the world.A research program has been carried out by the State Seismological Bureau of China.Based on the size of the reservoir and the lithology,geological structure,permeability,stress state,and previous seismicity in the region,the potential risk of reservoir-induced seismicity has been estimated.The results suggest that,after impoundment in the reservoir area,the possibility of induced seismicity cannot be completely ruled out.The areas with potential risk may be in some gorges composed of karstified carbonate and plutonic granite around the dam site.However,the magnitude is expected to be limited owing to the small dimension of the induced seismogenic faults.

Impact on Mountainous Agricultural Development in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area forced by Migrants of the Three Gorges Project

The Three Gorges Project attracts worldwide attention because of the Three Gorges migrants, and the agriculture of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area is a foundation for the development of the Three Gorges migrants. The Three Gorges Reservoir Area is situated at the mountainous area with bad agricultural development conditions and relatively low levels of development. As a result, the large-scale migration fias special influence on its agricultural development, which has attracted much attention. The paper analyzes influence that the migrants have forced on its agricultural development based on the scientific data, and makes some explorations on the models that are suitable for the development of mountainous agriculture in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

Soil Geochemistry Changes Induced by a Foreign Soil Reconstruction Project in Three Gorges Reservoir Region of China

Fertile topsoil was added onto the surface of barren slope land in Three Gorges Reservoir region of China in an anthropogenic process known as the foreign soil reconstruction project. The main goal of this paper was to reveal the influence of anthropogenic activities on pedogenic processes and soil classifications. Chemical weathering indices and comparative analysis were applied to discuss changes in geochemical compositions and weathering features of purplish soils(Cambisols) before and after the project. Results showed that:(1) The foreign soil reconstruction project slightly altered the major element composition of topsoil and improved the soil structure. Although the distributions of major elements in the original topsoil, original subsoil, foreign topsoil and newly constructed topsoil were all similar to that in upper continental crust, newly constructed topsoil was the most similar soil.(2) The chemical index of alteration was more sensitive than the weathering index of Parker at indicating chemical weathering status of purplish soil. The chemical weathering status of newly constructed topsoil was higher than that of the original topsoil and lower than that of foreign topsoil.(3) Anthropogenic activities may provide a promising new thought for the anthropogenic soil classification system. The scope and subgroups of Anthrosols should be extended and strengthened. Or there may be a need to combine Anthrosols and Technosols orders to create a new soil order. The results may be used for optimizing soil mellowing engineering activities and enriching the soil classification system.

Three-Dimensional Visual Analysis for Construction Layout of Reservoir Project

It is difficult to analyze the inter-relationship for the construction layout of a reservoir project scientifically and intuitively.According to the characteristics of broad field and huge information,the modeling methods of digital terrain and solid model as well as the techniques of texture mapping and scene navigation are adopted.The simulation system is developed by C program language,which includes the functions of the interactive navigation of 3D scene,the visual inquiry of project digital model information,the storage and management of project information.A certain reservoir is taken as a case.The 3D visual analysis for the construction layout and engineering information are obtained.The proposed system is of great advantages in dealing with large amount of information and the method provides a theoretical basis and technical support for the construction layout of a reservoir project.

长江梯级水库群联合调度成效、挑战及对策

经过70 a的建设,长江流域控制性水库群基本建成。以三峡水库为核心的梯级水库群联合调度已经开展10 a。在总结控制性水库群在防洪、供水、生态和应急联合调度取得成绩的基础上,分析控制性水库群及与水网工程联合调度面临的问题和挑战,提出了相应的对策建议。研究表明:水库群联合调度因流域防洪调度而启,目前在防洪、抗旱供水、生态环境和应急等公益调度中发挥了重要作用。气候变化及水文中长期预报不确定性是联合调度面临的主要挑战,其次是水库群联合调度与单个水库多目标调度利益协调、定量评价调度效果及合理的补偿等管理问题。加强“四预”是解决气候变化和人类活动不确定性的主要对策。水库群与水网工程联合调度可以更广泛地发挥水利工程水安全保障作用。建立科学合理的水工程群联合调度体制和机制是解决联合调度管理问题的有效措施。

胜利油田CO_(2)高压混相驱油与封存理论技术及矿场实践

针对胜利油田开展CO_(2)驱油与封存面临的原油轻烃含量低混相难、储层非均质性强波及效率低、易气窜全过程调控难等问题,通过室内实验、技术攻关和矿场实践,形成CO_(2)高压混相驱油与封存理论及关键技术。研究发现,提高地层压力至1.2倍最小混相压力之上,可以提高原油中的中重质组分混相能力,增大小孔隙中的原油动用程度,均衡驱替前缘,扩大波及体积。通过超前压驱补能实现快速高压混相,采用梯级气水交替、注采耦合、多级化学调堵等技术全过程动态调控渗流阻力,实现采收率与封存率的协同最优。研究成果应用于高89-樊142 CCUS(二氧化碳捕集、利用与封存)示范区,区块日产油由254.6 t提高至358.2 t,预计实施15年可提高采出程度11.6个百分点,为CCUS规模化应用提供理论和技术支撑。

新疆水利工程西域砾岩边坡加固关键技术研究与应用

鉴于西域砾岩边坡长期浸没水中软化变形后失稳、因水位变动对边坡表面掏刷破坏、内外水头差过大导致的滑坡、高速水流对坡脚掏刷导致坡顶崩塌等问题,该地层条件下的水利工程高边坡广泛存在,传统的水利工程边坡加固形式已经无法解决此类边坡的问题。为了保证库区内西域砾岩高边坡稳安全定性,实现工程安全性和经济型的平衡,结合新疆迪那河五一水库工程面临库区内联合进水口西域砾岩高边坡加固的问题,提出了一套适用西域砾岩高边坡加固的方法,该方法成功的解决了西域砾岩边坡在蓄水后遇到的边坡软化失稳和长期安全运行的问题,为今后同处西域砾岩的水利工程边坡处理提供借鉴和帮助。

多源多特征集成的南水北调工程丹江库区湿地时空格局演变

丹江口水库是中国南水北调工程的关键水源区。随着城镇化发展以及大坝二次建设,库区湿地生态系统变化显著,亟需湿地生态科学监测。以丹江库区为例,依托Google Earth Engine(GEE)平台,首先采用已有土地覆盖数据集生成湿地样本集,其次整合Landsat影像、DEM等数据构建多源特征集合,并基于Jeffries-Matusita(JM)距离进行特征优选,使用随机森林(RF)算法实现了1985~2023年丹江库区湿地制图。结果表明:①本文提出的样本采集流程可有效提高样本质量,为长时序分类样本采集提供参考;②湿地分类特征优选后特征数由37个减为27个,分类总体精度变化不大,优选后的特征应用于丹江库区湿地分类的平均总体精度(OA)以及平均数量和分配分歧指数(QADI)分别为89.53%和0.0802,说明特征优选有效减少信息冗余,提高影像分类效率;③1985~2023年,丹江库区湿地面积呈波动增加趋势,从1985年的17839.85 ha扩大到2023年的28872.48 ha,面积增长38.12%。总体来说,丹江库区湿地生态系统呈现出逐步恢复和优化的良好态势。

金沙江下游梯级水电工程库区生态系统服务价值演化及权衡协同关系

基于生态系统服务变化指数、相关分析及空间自相关等方法,对金沙江下游梯级水电工程库区2005—2018年生态系统服务价值进行定量分析,探索库区生态系统服务权衡协同关系的时空演变规律。结果表明:(1)2018年库区生态系统服务价值达到940亿元,研究期间生态系统服务价值总量增加42亿元。(2)库区生态系统服务价值空间分布较为稳定,呈现南高北低格局,空间相关类型均为正相关,生态系统服务价值增益地区集聚于金沙江沿岸。(3)库区生态系统支持服务与供给、调节、文化服务之间表现为权衡关系,供给、调节、文化服务两两之间表现为协同关系,各乡镇生态系统服务的相关关系以协同关系为主。研究结果进一步证明水电工程的实施能改善库区生态系统服务功能,为库区环境保护和土地资源可持续利用提供技术支撑。

Kriging水动力学代理模型在水库群优化调度中的应用

为解决传统水动力学模型结合调度模型求解耗时长的难题,使用代理模型模拟水动力学模型以提升求解效率。从金沙江下游—三峡梯级水库调度实际出发,结合水动力学和代理模型相关理论,建立了基于Kriging代理模型的水库群多目标调度模型并采用多目标进化算法对模型进行求解,最后采用投影追踪法对得到的多目标帕累托前沿进行决策。研究结果表明,代理模型的平均模拟误差≤1.5%,能够较为精确地替代原有长耗时水动力学模型并结合调度模型给出具有竞争关系的帕累托前沿及合理的折衷方案,对促进梯级水库综合效益发挥提供理论依据。

冲刷及整治工程叠加作用下武汉河段滩槽调整特征与成因

大型水库的修建引起了坝下游的滩槽调整,进而对河势、航运、防洪及生态等产生显著影响。为探究滩槽调整的驱动机制,采用1952—2022年水沙和1959—2021年地形观测资料,以长江武汉河段为例,分析了床沙组成、来水来沙及整治工程等因素的影响。研究表明:①武汉河段枯水河槽冲刷量占全河槽冲刷量的90.4%,断面趋向窄深化,河相系数减小。不同江心洲及汊道冲淤出现差异性调整,2001—2021年,铁板洲和白沙洲洲体面积分别减少了63.1%和61.5%,潜洲和天兴洲洲体面积分别增大了212.3%和14.5%;2013年后,铁板洲左右汊均冲,天兴洲汊道左淤右冲。②来沙量锐减,河床以0.125 mm≤d<0.25 mm的细沙居多,抗冲性较弱,是冲刷加剧的先决条件;三峡水库的削峰补枯作用加剧了枯水倾向汊河的冲刷幅度;整治工程改变了滩槽冲淤的横向分布,是江心洲差异性调整的主导因素,也是天兴洲保持左淤右冲的重要原因。③三峡水库蓄水前,洲滩之间演变联动性强;三峡水库蓄水后,来沙减少和中水期时间延长导致洲滩冲刷萎缩,洲滩之间演变联动性变弱;整治工程实施后,工程保持了心滩稳定且其缓流滞沙效应提高了抗冲性,心滩淤长的同时限制了边滩发育,叠加来沙进一步减少,边滩之间、心滩之间演变联动性进一步变弱,边滩与心滩之间演变联动性再次增强。

投影卷积神经网络固、液相钾盐矿层预测

四川盆地钾盐资源储量大,因此对钾盐资源分布的勘探评价尤为重要。钾盐在地层中有卤水和新型杂卤石两种赋存形式,其中新型杂卤石是固相形式,而卤水以液相形式存在,易开采,是优质钾盐矿层。由于钾盐含量与地震响应之间没有直接关系,无法建立明确的特征方程,所以目前对钾盐矿层的地震勘探认识仍局限于地震反射特征的分析,缺乏钾盐表征的有效技术手段。为此,本文以川东北地区地质认识为先验信息,构建具有投影变换层的卷积神经网络,挖掘地震数据与钾盐矿层之间的关系,获得钾盐矿层表征特征参数,对钾盐矿层进行预测。在钾盐矿层表征的基础上,通过分析钾盐含量曲线和电阻率曲线,发现卤水矿层具有钾盐含量高、电阻率低的特点,而新型杂卤石矿层不仅钾盐含量高,电阻率也高。因此,进一步基于投影变换卷积神经网络,获得目标层段电阻率数据体。这样,由投影变换卷积神经网络预测的钾盐含量和电阻率两个数据体,划分出目标地区卤水和新型杂卤石矿层的发育位置。

基于BIM+B/S的水库工程数字化展示平台的构建

针对水库工程在初步设计阶段仍以二维图纸作为成果交付,缺少对工程整体情况、投资估算等关键信息直观展示的问题,将BIM数字信息建模、BIM数据文件优化处理、B/S前后端分离、跨平台访问等技术应用于新建岔河水库工程,建立岔河水库枢纽BIM模型,创建实现平台功能的数据文件并构建岔河水库枢纽工程数字化展示平台。研究结果表明:构建的岔河水库工程数字化展示平台可以高效、流畅、跨平台地在电脑端和手机端,向参建各方展示待建枢纽工程的基本情况和地理位置,建筑物三维信息模型,单体工程的施工模拟动画,以及枢纽工程投资估算关键信息。研究结果深化BIM技术应用程度,可为其他水利工程信息化提供重要参考和借鉴价值。

临库超深盾构工作井施工运行期渗控措施效果研究

临库超深盾构工作井施工运行过程中的渗流安全问题重要且复杂。为此,以深圳公—清联通工程中临水库仅100 m的田茜工作井为例,构建了工程区三维渗流数值模拟模型,对施工运行期不同水位及渗控措施条件下的工程区渗流场分布和竖井基坑渗流量特征开展了系统分析,评价了竖井基坑渗流安全,并定量确定工作井施工运行对库坝渗流及周边地下水位的长期影响。结果表明,工作井运行期基坑渗流量对周边地下水流场影响很小;工作井周边花岗岩微新岩体的渗透系数对基坑渗流计算结果影响很大;工作井的施工和运行对大坝渗流安全有利。研究结果为临库超深盾构工作井的渗流分析和渗控措施设计提供了良好的思路和范例。

数字孪生丹江口工程建设

文章介绍了数字孪生丹江口工程的建设背景及目标需求,重点阐述围绕大坝安全、水质安全、库区安全等核心业务创新研发的多项关键技术,总结梳理了数字孪生丹江口工程后续工作及数字孪生建设面临的挑战,提出数字孪生技术发展展望。

通用型水库洪水全过程预演仿真模型构建技术

水库洪水全过程预演仿真模拟是水利工程防灾减灾领域的重要研究方向,模型是支撑预演仿真模拟的核心,也是构建现代化水库运行管理矩阵重要的支撑技术。从水库洪水灾害链演化过程出发,围绕上游洪水形成过程、库坝区洪水控制过程以及下游洪水演进过程三个阶段,从水库上游的水文产汇流模拟,坝址区域的水库洪水调度模拟、大坝安全性态综合模拟、溃坝过程模拟,以及水库下游的洪水演进模拟、致灾后果分析等角度出发,探讨了各环节的研究近况,梳理了当前各环节模型构建的主要技术和存在问题。围绕当前构建现代化水库运行管理矩阵中对洪水预演仿真模型的需求和建设现状,总结分析了目前平台模型构建运用过程中存在的模型整体性规划不足、缺乏模型和模拟标准、各模型衔接困难等问题。结合工程实践,从加强顶层设计、统一建设标准、模型计算微服务部署等方面提出平台模型构建建议,并对下一步研究进行了展望。

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