[Objective] The research aimed to study the first spring soaking rain weather and its precipitation enhancement potential forecast in Jinzhou area in 2010. [Method] From the weather situation characteristics, main inf...[Objective] The research aimed to study the first spring soaking rain weather and its precipitation enhancement potential forecast in Jinzhou area in 2010. [Method] From the weather situation characteristics, main influence system, forecast service, artificial precipitation enhancement operation and so on, the first spring soaking rain weather process in Jinzhou area in 2010 was summarized comprehensively. [Result] The weather situation characteristics of soaking rain were that the high-altitude cold air was weak, and the low-level warm wet airflow was obvious. The main influence systems were the high-altitude trough, the high-altitude shear line and the ground Mongolian cyclone. The ground inverted trough system advanced northward and got through with the same phase of Mongolian cyclone, which provided the certain energy and water vapor for the precipitation in Jinzhou area. It was one of key reasons for generating the soaking rain. The numerical forecast product played the certain guidance role in the forecast service work. The situation field forecast was accurate, but the precipitation forecast deviation was big. Therefore, the forecast service couldn’t depend on the numerical forecast product simply and totally, and should combine with the actual monitoring data to analyze and apply comprehensively. [Conclusion] The research played the safeguarding role in carrying out the large-scale artificial precipitation enhancement operation successfully in the whole area of Jinzhou.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to study one rainstorm process being affected by two weather system. [Method] Influenced by high trough and Mongolia cold front, high latitude trough and subtropical high shear, rainstorm occur...[Objective] The aim was to study one rainstorm process being affected by two weather system. [Method] Influenced by high trough and Mongolia cold front, high latitude trough and subtropical high shear, rainstorm occurred in Jinzhou from October 19 to 22 in 2010. In order to make the analysis clear, there were two precipitation stages. Considering precipitation, weather situation, satellite image and numerical forecast, the rainstorm process was discussed. [Result] There were two raining stages during this precipitation. The first stage was affected by high altitude trough and ground Mongolia cold front, and the last stage was influenced by high altitude trough and subtropical high shear;the high latitude air, low latitude shear,low air torrent,subtropical high and their mutual coupling effect were the main influencing system and cause for this rainstorm. Satellite image suggested that there was convective cloud developing,weakening, disappearing and regenerating around the convective cloud of water vapor passage, showing distinct train operation state. The strengthening and weakening cloud image fitted the real precipitation. Numerical forecast precisely predicted the upper air and ground situation of the generation of rainstorm, especially the report of the east-retreating and south-falling trend of subtropical high;European center forecast fitted reality. There was certain error in predicting T639. Precipitation forecast was fine. [Conclusion] The study provided basis for the meteorological service work in future.展开更多
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to study the first spring soaking rain weather and its precipitation enhancement potential forecast in Jinzhou area in 2010. [Method] From the weather situation characteristics, main influence system, forecast service, artificial precipitation enhancement operation and so on, the first spring soaking rain weather process in Jinzhou area in 2010 was summarized comprehensively. [Result] The weather situation characteristics of soaking rain were that the high-altitude cold air was weak, and the low-level warm wet airflow was obvious. The main influence systems were the high-altitude trough, the high-altitude shear line and the ground Mongolian cyclone. The ground inverted trough system advanced northward and got through with the same phase of Mongolian cyclone, which provided the certain energy and water vapor for the precipitation in Jinzhou area. It was one of key reasons for generating the soaking rain. The numerical forecast product played the certain guidance role in the forecast service work. The situation field forecast was accurate, but the precipitation forecast deviation was big. Therefore, the forecast service couldn’t depend on the numerical forecast product simply and totally, and should combine with the actual monitoring data to analyze and apply comprehensively. [Conclusion] The research played the safeguarding role in carrying out the large-scale artificial precipitation enhancement operation successfully in the whole area of Jinzhou.
文摘[Objective] The aim was to study one rainstorm process being affected by two weather system. [Method] Influenced by high trough and Mongolia cold front, high latitude trough and subtropical high shear, rainstorm occurred in Jinzhou from October 19 to 22 in 2010. In order to make the analysis clear, there were two precipitation stages. Considering precipitation, weather situation, satellite image and numerical forecast, the rainstorm process was discussed. [Result] There were two raining stages during this precipitation. The first stage was affected by high altitude trough and ground Mongolia cold front, and the last stage was influenced by high altitude trough and subtropical high shear;the high latitude air, low latitude shear,low air torrent,subtropical high and their mutual coupling effect were the main influencing system and cause for this rainstorm. Satellite image suggested that there was convective cloud developing,weakening, disappearing and regenerating around the convective cloud of water vapor passage, showing distinct train operation state. The strengthening and weakening cloud image fitted the real precipitation. Numerical forecast precisely predicted the upper air and ground situation of the generation of rainstorm, especially the report of the east-retreating and south-falling trend of subtropical high;European center forecast fitted reality. There was certain error in predicting T639. Precipitation forecast was fine. [Conclusion] The study provided basis for the meteorological service work in future.
