西部高校教师流失问题的实证研究——影响因素及其“软治理”效果

西部地区高校优秀人才的外流已严重阻碍了西部经济的发展和整个中国社会、经济的和谐发展,为改变这种状况,文章基于客观的实证分析方法,探讨西部高校教师流失的影响因素,提出了对该种流失现象进行“软治理”的方法,并进行了相应的实证分析,文章关键性的结论可为西部高校制定有针对性的人才流失管理措施提供可行性的支撑依据。

基于生存分析的顾客流失预测及挽救效果研究

文章利用生存分析技术解决当前顾客流失管理研究中的缺陷,构建了观测易流失顾客的COX比例风险回归模型和分析流失挽救效果的Kaplan-Meyer模型,通过相应的实例分析表明,两种模型能很好地对易流失顾客进行预测和对流失挽救效果进行分析。

Prediction of Transformation of Acute Disseminated Encephalomyelitis into Multiple Sclerosis

Prediction of transformation of acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) into multiple sclerosis is of great clinical importance, as it enables timely determination of the tactics for treatment of a patient as well as volume of respective therapeutic interventions.This work is aimed at ascertainingthe prognostic factors that determine the risk of transformation of acute disseminatedencephalomyelitis into multiple sclerosis. We have examined 101 patients with the diagnosis ADEM, namely: 28 men and 73 women in the age from 17 up to 53 years (average value31.7 ± 1.01years). To ascertain the prognostic meaning of clinic-paraclinic indices corresponding to patients with ADEM, we estimated the cumulative part of absence of relapses in the group of patients by using the Kaplan-Meyer method with estimating the Fisher criterion and using the most important clinic-paraclinic data. Development of transformation of ADEM into multiple sclerosis is reliably related to the following prognostic signs: degree of disability in accord with the EDSS scale and sizes of demyelination focuses determined using MRT. Criteria for congenial prediction in disease development with delayed appearance of transformation of ADEM into multiple sclerosis are as follows: slight degree (in EDSS scale) of disability and large sizes of demyelination focuses (MRT data).Our analysis of the main clinic-paraclinic indexes obtained using the Kaplan-Meyer method indicates reliability of results and enables us to find a number of important prognostic criteria for development of transformation of ADEM into multiple sclerosis.

Prediction of Multiphase Alternative of Acute Disseminated Encephalomyelitis Course Development

Prediction of development of the multi-phase alternative for the course inherent to acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) is of great clinical importance, as it enables timely determination of the treatment tactics as well as volume of respective therapeutic interventions. This work is aimed at ascertaining the prognostic factors that determine the risk of development of the multi-phase course in disseminated encephalomyelitis. We have examined 101 patients with the diagnosis ADEM, namely: 28 men and 73 women in the age from 17 up to 53 years (average value 31.7 ± 1.01 years). To ascertain the prognostic meaning of clinic-paraclinic indices corresponding to patients with ADEM, we estimated the cumulative part of absence of relapses in the group of patients by using the Kaplan-Meyer method with estimating the Fisher criterion and using the most important clinic-paraclinic data. Development of the multiphase course in ADEM is reliably related to the following prognostic signs: changes in the neurologic status of patients with ADEM, degree of disability in accord with the EDSS scale as well as sizes of demyelination focuses determined using MRT. Criteria for congenial prediction in disease development with delayed appearance of ADEM relapses in the form of the multi-phase course are as follows: domination of motor impairments over coordinative impairments in neurological status, slight degree (in EDSS scale) of disability and small sizes (up to 4 mm) of demyelination focuses (MRT data). Our analysis of the main clinic-paraclinic indices obtained using the Kaplan-Meyer method indicates reliability of results and enables us to find a number of important prognostic criteria for appearance of the multiphase course in ADEM.