Landslide mapping and analysis along the China-Pakistan Karakoram Highway based on SBAS-InSAR detection in 2017

The Karakoram Highway(KKH),a part of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC),is a major highway connecting northern Pakistan to China.The inventorying and analysis of landslides along KKH are challenging because of poor accessibility,vast study area,limited availability of ground-based datasets,and the complexity of landslide processes in the region.In order to preserve life,property,and infrastructure,and to enable the uninterrupted and efficient operation of the KKH,it is essential to strengthen measures for the prevention and control of geological disasters.In the present study,SBASInSAR(Small Baseline Subsets-Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar)was used to process 150 scenes of Sentinel 1-A images in the year 2017 along the Karakoram Highway.A total of 762 landslides,including 57 complex landslides,126 rock falls,167 debris slides,and 412 unstable slopes,ranging in size between 0.0017 and 10.63 km2 were identified.Moreover,this study also gains an inventory of 40 active glacier movements in this region.Landslide categorization,displacements characteristics,spatial distribution,and their relationship with various contributing factors have been successfully investigated along the entire KKH using image interpretation and frequency-area statistics.The criteria adopted for landslides categorization is presented in the study.The results showed that the 2-D ground deformation derived in Hunza valley echoes well with the general regional landslides characteristics.The spatial distribution analysis revealed that there are clumped distributions of landslides in the Gaizi,Tashkurgan,and Khunjerab in China,as well as in Hunza valley,and north of Chilas city in Pakistan.Statistical results indicated that these landslides mainly occur on south-facing slopes with a slope angle of 20°–45°and elevation relief of 550–2,100 m.Landslide development is also related to low vegetation cover and weathering effects in mountain gullies.Overall,our study provides scientific data support and theoretical references for prevention,control,and mitigation of geological disasters in the Karakoram region.

Evaluation of spatiotemporal variability of temperature and precipitation over the Karakoram Highway region during the cold season by a Regional Climate Model

Precipitation and temperature are two important factors associated to snow hazards which block the transport infrastructure and cause loss of life and properties in the cold season.The in-situ observations are limited in the alpine with complex topographic characteristics,while coarse satellite rainfall estimates,reanalysis rain datasets,and gridded in-situ rain gauge datasets obscure the understanding of the precipitation patterns in hazardprone areas.Considering the Karakoram Highway(KKH)region as a study area,a double nestedWeather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with the high resolution of a 10-km horizontal grid was performed to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of temperature and precipitation covering the Karakoram Highway region during the cold season.The results of WRF were compared with the in-situ observations and Multi-Source WeightedEnsemble Precipitation(MSWEP)datasets.The results demonstrated that the WRF model well reproduced the observed monthly temperature(R=0.96,mean bias=-3.92°C)and precipitation(R=0.57,mean bias=8.69 mm).The WRF model delineated the essential features of precipitation variability and extremes,although it overestimatedthe wet day frequency and underestimated the precipitation intensity.Two rain bands were exhibited in a northwest-to-southeast direction over the study area.High wet day frequency was found in January,February,and March in the section between Hunza and Khunjerab.In addition,the areas with extreme values are mainly located in the Dasu-Islamabad section in February,March,and April.The WRF model has the potential to compensate for the spatial and temporal gaps of the observational networks and to provide more accurate predictions on the meteorological variables for avoiding common coldweather hazards in the ungauged and high altitude areas at a regional scale.

Risk assessment of glacial debris flow on alpine highway under climate change: A case study of Aierkuran Gully along Karakoram Highway

Glacial debris flows(GDFs) often occur in alpine regions that are subject to rapid climate change, and pose a serious threat to road systems. However, the ways that climate change impacts GDF risks along road systems remain poorly understood. Aierkuran Gully, located in eastern Pamir along Karakoram Highway(KKH), is a hotspot for GDF activity and climate change, and was thus selected to investigate the GDF risk to road systems under climate change conditions. Reg CM4.6 climate data for northwestern China were selected as climate projections during baseline(2011–2020) and future periods(2031–2040) under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 8.5. To reflect the coupling effect of rainfall and melt water that triggers GDF, a glacial hydrological model DETIM that considers both factors was applied to calculate the peak debris flow discharge. A FLO-2D model was calibrated based on high-quality data collected from a detailed field investigation and historical debris flow event. The FLO-2D model was used to simulate the debris flow depth and velocity during baseline and future periods under RCP8.5. The debris flow hazard was analyzed by integrating the maximum flow depth and momentum. Road structure vulnerability was further determined based on the economic value and susceptibility of hazard-affected objects. The GDF risk along KKH was assessed based on the GDF hazard and vulnerability analysis. Our results show that climate change would lead to amplified peak debris flow discharge, trigger highermagnitude GDF, and induce more severe damage and threats to the road system. Compared with the baseline period, the debris flow damage risk for culverts and bridges would increase and the areas that inundate the road and pavement would expand. Our findings provide valuable insights for the development of mitigation strategies to adapt road systems to climate change, especially in alpine regions with highly active GDFs.

Landslide susceptibility analysis of Karakoram highway using analytical hierarchy process and scoops 3D

Landslides are prevalent,regular,and expensive hazards in the Karakoram Highway(KKH)region.The KKH connects Pakistan with China in the present China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)context.This region has not only immense economic importance but also ecological significance.The purpose of the study was to map the landslide-prone areas along KKH using two different techniquesAnalytical Hierarchy Process(AHP)and Scoops 3 D model.The causative parameters for running AHP include the lithology,presence of thrust,land use land cover,precipitation,and Digital Elevation Model(DEM)derived variables(slope,curvature,aspect,and elevation).The AHP derived final landslide susceptibility map was classified into four zones,i.e.,low,moderate,high,and extremely high.Over 80%of the study area falls under the moderate(43%)and high(40%)landslide susceptible zones.To assess the slope stability of the study area,the Scoops 3 D model was used by integrating with the earthquake loading data.The results of the limit equilibrium analysis categorized the area into four groups(low,moderate,high,and extremely high mass)of slope failure.The areas around Main Mantle Thrust(MMT)including Dubair,Jijal,and Kohistan regions,had high volumes of potential slope failures.The results from AHP and Scoops 3 D techniques were validated with the landslides inventory record of the Geological Survey of Pakistan and Google Earth.The results from both the techniques showed similar output that coincides with the known landslides areas.However,Scoops 3 D provides not only susceptible zones but also the range of volume of the potential slope failures.Further,these techniques could be used in other mountainous areas,which could help in the landslide mitigation measures.

Risk Assessment of Debris Flows Along the Karakoram Highway (Kashgar‑Khunjerab Section) in the Context of Climate Change

The Karakoram highway(KKH)is renowned for its complex natural environment and geological conditions.The climate changes drastically and directly infuences the frequency and magnitude of debris fows in this region,resulting in signifcant casualties and economic losses.However,the risk assessment of debris fows along the KKH in the context of climate change has been rarely explored.Therefore,in this study we used the debris fow data,historical meteorological data and future climate prediction data to assess the debris fow risk of the study region during the baseline period(2009–2018),2025s(2021–2030),2035s(2031–2040)and 2045s(2041–2050)under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario.The results show that the risk of debris fows increases with climate change,with the highest risk level in the 2025s.Among diferent parts of this highway,the upper reaches of the Ghez River and the second half of Tashkorgan-Khunjerab are the sections with the highest risk.These fndings are helpful for debris fow prevention and can ofer coping strategies for the existing line of the KKH.They also provide some reference for the renovation,improvement,operation,and maintenance of the KKH.

Karakoram Highway——The Friendship Bridge Across the Himalayas

Travelling along the Karakoram Highway (KKH) is an unforgettable experience. Traversing some of the highest mountains of the world, it presents a picture of pristine beauty and scenery. It also makes one marvel at this engineering feat of Chinese and Pakistanis who worked to make it into a symbol of eternal friendship between Pakistan and China. The KKH winds its way through some of the world's highest mountain ranges, the Karakoram,